Group A
France 2.08 (Odds, group winners)
Mexico 4.50
Uruguay 4.80
South Africa 8.00
You have to forget about all the fancy names in the French squad. As a team they have not impressed for ages and it is correct to say that they are in the World Cup thanks to the huge officiating blunder in the deciding game with Eire. The French coach Domenech never managed to get his team playing up to its full potential in the qualifiers and I cannot recall when a coach was as unpopular in his own country as this poor Domenech fellow. Player for player though, France are in a different, much stronger category than the other three group participants. It seems like Domenech will opt for a more offensive formation in S Africa. A step in the right direction.
Mexico got rid of Sven G Eriksson in the very last minute and under Aguirre they have improved vastly. Aguirre is an excellent coach and his Mexico play some technical football, clever with the ball, but like many other sides they lack real fire power. Young strikers, dos Santos, C Vela and Javier Hernandez (he has just joined M United), but they also include veterans like R Marquez, Franco and C Blanco.
If Mexico have inexperienced strikers, it is not the case with Uruguay. In D Forlan and L Suarez they have two established sharp shooters and the Palermo forward Cavani is also a pretty good striker. Uruguay seldom succeed on this level. Why? Sloppy defence, I guess, but both Godin and Lugano are decent defenders.
S Africa, the host nation, failed to impress during the Conf. Cup last year and you always wondered where their goals would come from. Benni McCarthy was a reserve for Blackburn and then he joined West Ham, reserve again, and this once quite good striker is probably not the most confident player these days. Key player, S Pienaar of course. Home advantage has always been tremendously significant in previous Championships and I am sure that S Africa will fancy their chances in this extremely tight group. France and S Africa for this writer.
Group B
Argentina 1.50
Nigeria 6.00
Greece 9.00
South Korea 13.00
Looks easy for Argentina. I will not make too much fuzz about the Maradona factor. I take it for granted that he has a managerial staff at his disposal and that they are no fools. Argentina will be all about their great players, not Maradona. Which side has offensive players like L Messi, D Milito. Higuain, C Tevez and Kun Aguero. Too many maybe, but Argentina will be my pick as World Cup winners. The odds are 10.00!
How will the Swedish coach L Lagerback succeed as the Nigeria boss? Well, I do not think that the Nigeria players have met a guy like Lagerback. Although he had some fruitful years coaching Sweden he finally bored us all to death. Will the Nigeria players listen to his words, all about organisation and defensive thinking? This I very much doubt.
Greece belong to the boring category, but at least there is an understanding between the players and their coach Rehhagel after many, successful years together. Rehhagel has been severely criticised in Greece for his unwillingness to include some new blood in his side. I say that the critics are right.
S Korea could struggle for goals, but their two “Englishmen” Park Ji-Sung and Lee Chung-Yong will do all that they can to prove me wrong, providing for the Monaco striker Park.
Argentina for sure and then it is anybody’s guess which side will join them in the next round. For this writer it will be between Nigeria and S Korea. Maybe I prefer S Korea, better odds.
Group C
England 1.33
U S A 5.70
Slovenia 14.00
Algeria 23.00
England can have few complaints. You do not find an easier group than this one. OK, I find myself often underestimating USA, but England are not likely to make the same mistake. England reached the quarter finals in their last two Championships, managed by Sven G Eriksson and the way I see it, England will be at least 50% better under Capello. Their qualifying campaign impressed hugely, winning in superior fashion a difficult group with both Ukraine and Crotia well beaten. Frank Lampard is a case for concern. He is too often anonymous playing for England. Well, he often disappears in the big Chelsea games as well. They do not need Lampard at his best to win this group, but to win the World Cup they need him in top shape.
USA defeated Spain in the Confederation Cup last season, and lost the final to Brazil, after being 2-0 up. It all happened in S Africa of course. This highly competitive side will most likely join England in the next round.
Slovenia won against Hiddink’s Russia in the play offs. They lost 1-2 in Russia, but won deservedly 2-0 in the return leg in Slovenia. Surely we would not have found 14.00 on the Russian group win, if they had been here. It is tempting to say that Slovenia will struggle in this World Cup, but the fact is that they played some strong games in their qualifying group, and they gave Hiddink a reminder, that he is human after all.
Algeria lack the big players, especially offensively. I mean a striker like Ghezzal, he is always number two to Maccarone, both playing for Siena. Several of the Algerian players play in France. Algeria defeated Ivory Coast in the African Cup this year, but lost the final to Egypt 0-4. I expect no success for Algeria in S Africa. England and USA to qualify.
Group D
Germany 1.91
Serbia 4.41
Ghana 6.00
Australia 10.00
Serbia should have a decent chance of winning this group. This version of Germany is not my kind of team and the odds on Germany as World Cup winners are a joke (15.00). You may as well bet on ABBA making a comeback. At the same time you can actually get 67.00 on Serbia as winners.
Their winning chances are as good, or as poor, you decide, but surely you feel better backing prices like 67.00. Anyway I like this Serbian national side. Impeccable in defence, excellent players like Krasic and Stankovic on their midfield and the underrated Zigic upfront. Not to forget Jovanovic. Stankovic is a bit of an enigma. Like Frank Lampard he often underperforms playing for his country.
Low’s Germany can be relied upon as a collective unit, as always one must say, but they are wanting offensively. Show me a German striker in form! Do not get me wrong, Germany have not turned into a bad side over night and they can of course win this group, but they are no Championship contenders this time around. They lack flair and true individual quality in their side. Robben, Olic and Ribery, all foreigners, made the difference for Bayern Munich. Still football is a team sport and Germany are never easily beaten, that is almost like a universal truth. In the absence of Ballack the experienced duo Schweinsteiger and P Lahm are key players for Germany. Azil and Khedira promise a lot, remains to be seen how they will be able to handle the World Cup pressure.
Ghana will not be able to call on their ace M Essien. There is no doubt in my mind that Essien is one of the two-three strongest Chelsea players and in a class of his own in this Ghana side. What a blow for Ghana!
Australia lost to Italy on a late penalty in 2006 and Italy went on to win the title. I predict a tough tournament for the Aussies. They belong to the teams that lack strong strikers, but they have versatile midfielders like T Cahill and B Holman that can play in forward positions. Serbia and Germany to go through.
Group E
Holland 1.62
Denmark 5.50
Cameroon 6.08
Japan 19.95
Surely the Dutch will win this group. They have one of the most talented sides around and I predict that they will start this tournament on a high. Lasting the distance could be a problem for Holland, but that is another question.
Denmark dominated their qualifying group ahead of Portugal, Sweden and Hungary. They do not look that good on paper, but they impressed as a collective in their qualifiers, winning both in Portugal and Sweden. Simon Kjaer, the Palermo defender, suffered an injury recently and although he is included in the Danish squad, he is in grave danger of missing the tournament. If this will be the case, quite a set back for the Danes. As the odds indicate, it will be between Denmark and Cameroon, joining Holland in the next round.
Cameroon was my big idea in 1990. They won their qualifying group ahead of Argentina, Romania and Russia and as group winners they paid 67.00. Those were the good old days. In modern times Cameroon have mostly disappointed, but maybe they will have some advantage this time, as these Championships will be played on the African continent. I am not so sure about that. It is pretty cold in S Africa at this time of the year, is it not?
The Japanese players are likely to work extremely hard, but football has more to it than running and Japan generally falter in front of enemy goal. Seems like they have gone down in quality, basically outclassed by S Korea recently. Holland and Denmark to the next round.
Group F
Italy 1.53
Paraguay 4.28
Slovakia 8.50
New Zealand 85.50
Slow starters they may be, but really, Italy should prove the bookies right by winning this easy group. When it is time for any Championships there are almost always good reasons for respecting Italy. It is not Donadoni who is coaching Italy this time, it is the old fox Lippi and I expect him to get the best out of this Italian side. They do not look like World Cup winners however, as quite a few of their players are passed their (Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Pirlo, Camoranesi to name a few). Very likely group winners.
Roque Santa Cruz, Cardozo and Barrios, all pretty good strikers, when fit and there was nothing wrong with the Paraguayan defence either in their qualifying games. Maybe this Paraguayan side should not be underestimated.
First time around on this level for Slovakia and their task is pretty straight forward – finish ahead of Paraguay. Hamsik is certainly a great up and coming player, but he cannot do it all on his own. Hopefully for Slovakia Skrtel will be in perfect shape for this tournament. He has not been able to play much for Liverpool this season, troubled by some persistent injury.
If N Zealand are lucky they will be able to pick up a draw from one of their matches, but that is about it. No doubts at all, Italy and Paraguay should advance.
Group G
Brazil 1.62
Portugal 4.60
Ivory Coast 5.20
N Korea 133.00
Tough group, but no doubt, Brazil deserve to be the hot favourites to finish first. Dunga’s Brazil play more European these days, whatever that means. I mean that they are not playing the samba football of old and that their defence marshalled by Lucio and Maicon is not their weakest part these days. A player like Dani Alves for instance, the outstanding Barcelona defender, may not find a place in the starting line up. Brazil hope that Kaka will find his form again and that the Sevilla striker Luis Fabiano will be 100% fit for the Championships. All sides fear Brazil and they are right to do so.
Portugal were in big trouble in their qualifying group, but late on they were able to get their necessary points. I have to point out that they never impressed and this I know for certain, as they played in the same group as Sweden. C Ronaldo, their ace, has the same problems as Lampard and Stankovic. He rarely plays on the same high level for his country.
Ivory Coast, the only really strong African side, coached by Sven G Eriksson, what a combination. You know Sven,he never lost a match for England in the World Cup, but was unlucky twice in the penalty shoot outs. What I know is that Sven has already started to work on the I Coast defensive line. They need to improve their defence, or it will not matter what Drogba will be up to upfront. Sven never liked facing Portugal, when he was leading England. It was Scolari’s Portugal, but could be that Portugal will hurt him again. I have to admit however that I look forward to watching this I Coast side. Either they will buy Sven’s ideas or not, you never really know.
North Korea, the mystery team, will probably play some ultra defensive football, hoping for a 0-0 result somewhere. The Greek coach called N Korea a well prepared and disciplined outfit after their 2-2 encounter. In that particular game N Korea controlled much of the game. Says something about Greece? Still, it was just a friendly. Brazil and Ivory Coast will be my choice.
Group H
Spain 1.29
Chile 6.40
Switzerland 14.00
Honduras 66.50
Although not my favourites, Spain are most peoples choice to win the World Cup 2010.I just want to say that I thoroughly expect the Spaniards to win this group. They can be without quite a few of their regulars and still be able to defeat the other group participants.
Chile are probably stronger than most people believe. They have visited Europe quite often these last two years and they have been on the winning sides more than once against strong European teams, like Denmark and Eire, both away fixtures in 2009. Best side in S America, apart from the big two of course. Well, they were actually runners up to Brazil in the S American qualifying group.
Switzerland are one of the few countries that have actually lost to Luxembourg, in an important game, a World Cup home qualifier. To their credit Hitzfeld’s Switzerland recovered from that astonishing set back and here they are in S Africa. Cannot say that I am impressed by their squad, but Hitzfeld is a good team builder.
Honduras can be backed when they are playing on home territory and their first start on this big international scene looks like a mission impossible. They are not a side that play defensive football and I fear that they will be severely punished. Spain and Chile to progress.
Favourites to win the cup are Spain (5.25) and Brazil (6.00). We can include England (7.50) and Argentina (10.00) among the favourites as well. I am not prepared to make big case against Spain, but is it not possible that they have peaked? Look at Barcelona. Last season Xavi and Iniesta dominated for Barcelona, but this season their success was almost entirely down to the Messi genius and of course, he is from Argentina.
It is worth remembering that Spain lost to USA last year in the Confederations Cup, taking place in South Africa. Maybe they do not like playing there, maybe it is too cold, but the fact is that Spain were poor there a year ago. History has a tendency of repeating itself.
Brazil are worth all the respect in the world, but If I have done my home work correctly, they will be up against Holland in the quarter final and I assure you, if this match does take place, it can go either way.
Although Argentina will be my chief call I am not happy with all the ingredients in their side. Sebastian Veron on their midfield, I could do without and Demichelis means trouble in their defence from time to time. Their offence however is simply the best. For now it looks like Messi will be joined by Higuain and C Tevez in their front line, but how do you keep a player like D Milito on the bench? Kun Aguero I can see performing great things, coming on as a substitute.
If I have got it right Argentina will be in the quarter final without any problems. England will face Germany or Serbia after the group phase and such a fixture smells potential trouble, but should they win this match, I promise that England will go a long way in these Championships.
Holland pay 13.00 as winners. They will probably look like winners to start with, but I fear that they will run out of steam sooner or later. Maybe after their great, (possible) win against Brazil, but then they will of course be in the semi final.
First and foremost Argentina to win the World Cup (10.00).
Chris.
Preview courtesy of Tip-Ex.
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