We had someone unsubscribe from the Champion Picks newsletter yesterday and the reason he gave was because he disagreed with Scott Woodward’s analysis of State of Origin Game One.
Scott had said “I have been on Queensland for quite a few years but this year the value lies with NSW. While I don’t expect them to win, they are at value odds so we’re backing them at +6.5 points start in Game 1 and also at close to $3 to win the series.”
To which the unsubscriber replied “You do not expect them to win but are backing them at close to $3 to win the series because it is value. I would rather back a undervalued winner than an overvalued loser. Goodbye.”
OK so he is no longer with us, but for the other 11,000 who are it is worth reading Scott’s response:
If you cannot comprehend what I have said then my strong advice to you is to never have a bet. Please don’t think I am being brash as the art of winning is to have a long term view and get there by investing only in value, or over the odds.
Let me clarify:
Clearly whoever I rate the shortest price is who I think will win. You MUST comprehend who I think will win has zero to do with who I recommend you invest in. You should only ever invest in value and while I think Queensland will win, I do not think they are value and investing in “under the odds” long term will send you broke.
I think NSW should only be 4 points behind Queensland yet we have been able to secure 6.5 points start. This means that if NSW can get the first converted try, Queensland will have to score three straight tries to get in front – VALUE.
As for the Series, NSW have two cracks as the second game is in Sydney. If they win game 1, you cannot lose on the series as NSW will be odds on in game 2. If Qld win game 1, NSW will still be alive and have a game at home to level the series.
I hope that helps, but you are welcome to email me direct anytime.
Value is everything in the punting game. Keep finding it and the long-term profits will take care of themselves.