In our recent Q&A recap we said that “Odds-on, look on” is just another punting myth that has no basis in fact.
We mentioned (yet again) that the favourite/longshot bias is alive and well; as a general rule longer priced horses should in fact be even longer and shorter priced horses should actually be shorter. Many punters are surprised to learn that their money will last longer backing favourites than any other segment of the market and that odds-on horses are the best performers of all.
But at least one reader wasn’t convinced:
Odds on look on a myth??!! You really have to be joking. The quickest way to the poor house and fatten the bookies is to bet odds on. Think Eddie the fireman for one. I really find it hard to comprehend a professional site as you claim to be can mislead punters this way. Gavin.
Well when someone like Gavin has believed something to be true their whole life, they are not easily persuaded to acknowledge that what they have been told as a fact is actually just a myth.
So let’s go through some irrefutable facts:
Favourites are clearly the most profitable market rank (or if you prefer to think of it the other way, they are the least unprofitable) as you will see from the results for the almost 47,000 races run at TAB meetings in the 2009-2011 period.
POT = Profit on Turnover
And question everything, because a statement repeated often enough can come to be accepted as the truth. But repetition is just repetition, it doesn’t make it true and that applies to ‘odds-on, look on’ and many other punting sayings.
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
People also believe that due to those stats, if they were to LAY every favourite then surely they must win. Could you do a similar report on what would happen if you had laid every horse that was a favourite? Or any other price bracket for that matter?
My database doesnt include Betfair prices, but over a large sample the results wouldn’t be too different to the best of best tote and SP used here.
But just to look at market rank for all TAB races in 2011:
Fave: -5.1
2nd fave: -6.5
3rd fave: -12.3
4th fave: -9.5
5th fave: -8
6th fave: -11.2
7th fave: -8.3
8th fave: -7.8
9th fave: -12.2
10th fave: -9.5
11th fave: -16.3
12th fave: -21
13th fave: -30.6
14th fave: -41.5
15th fave: -50.7
16th fave: -51
Many punters want the big priced winner and every now and then will get it, but they are often taking unders and we all know how that plays out.
Hi Dave
I agree with everything you say here, the numbers don’t lie – short priced horses over a long period of time do equate to losing your money less quickly, if you were to back them all, in comparison to their longer priced counterparts. The market is an uncanny judge of a horses chances, over time.
The challenge as you rightly point out is working out when the market gets it wrong.
Cheers
Todd
You missed the point we are trying to make money not lose it. It doesn’t matter if it is -1.9 or – 8.5 half of any of these figures is till zero dollars.