Race 2 Benchmark 95 1600m
Launay went straight to the front and raced like the Launay of old. It had been very disappointing over the Brisbane carnival but a good track and the return to Flemington and 1600 really suited. The last 600 was run in 34.73 so it certainly had all the favours having been very well supported in the ring. Willy Jimmy was excellent given the tempo and it along with Fast Future were the only two horses to come from well off the pace to figure close up against the pattern and sectionals. The big disappointment of the race was Trader who had defied the pattern at its previous start. Given the tempo and sectionals of today’s event it had every hope and its effort was very poor indeed. Perhaps the last run may well have been a gutbuster and flattened it. Having said that the Anthony Cummings stable seems incapable of being able to produce back to back winners and that is most evident in statistics over the past 24 months.
Race 3 Handicap 2000m
They crawled along here and it was immediately evident that the leaders were at a distinct advantage, clearly illustrated in Playwright’s closing sectionals of of 34.72, 23.53 and 12.22 . It was going to take a super effort to get past Playwright who adopted the same tactics as its Benalla Cup win by leading throughout. The dominant favourite Red Colossus tried hard but could not bridge the gap. The very diminutive Laristan was in a good position throughout but was very dour and couldn’t quicken when asked to sprint. It did its best work very late in the race and looks to be in need of 2400 or further.
Race 4 The Hilton Hotel Stakes 1400m
One of the best performances of the day here with the very heavily supported Bigelow finishing over the top of them and in doing so recorded 23.01 for the last 400 and covered the final 200 in 11.86. The win was dominant and it is hard to make a case for the beaten horses as they all had the opportunity to win off a good tempo. Bigelow was next to last on straightening and was simply too good for them on the day. Clinton McDonald has an outstanding prospect here as this Al Maher 3 year-old has had just four starts to date winning three, with it’s only defeat being at Cranbourne when second up at 1300m.
Race 5 Patinack Farm Classic 1200m
The long awaited clash of the best sprinters in Australia resulted in the unbeaten Superstar Black Caviar winning in an incredible 1.07.96 beating the very much in form Star Witness by 4 lengths. She is now the number one rated sprinter in the world. The race sectionals from the 1000 were 10.58, 10.36, 10.59, 10.75 and 11.82 were breathtaking. The win was again arrogant and apart from being the top rated sprinter in the world, she now has to be considered the best sprinter we have ever seen in this country in the past 40 years (possibly ever) especially having won in all conditions and different sized tracks. She will spell now but Peter Moody will no doubt be looking to Ascot next year where she will start shorter than any horse in history. Star Witness lost no admirers at all running up to its best rating good figures.
Race 6 Emirates Stakes 1600m
The betting reflected the quality of the field with $6 the field. Rothera was squeezed up along the rail approaching the 500 and was shunted back through the field resulting in many horses being inconvenienced, none more so than Sound Journey whose run has to be dismissed. The tempo was good with all horses afforded opportunity. Dao Dao who was wide throughout loomed and looked the winner at the 200 but the run told and it was the New Zealand Champion Wall Street who stuck it’s nose out at the line to win in a bunched finish. It was a just reward for possibly New Zealand’s best horse who had no luck in the Cox Plate where it missed the start. Chasm, Wall Street and Dao Dao all came from well back at the turn and any of them could have won really. Dao Dao was brilliant and there is a good argument to say it should have won the race. Of the others the Macau horse Luen Yat Forever turned in another strong performance proving that it’s effort in the Toorak when beaten less than a length by More Joyous was no fluke. It is best suited at this trip and that is evidenced by it’s Macau record. Black Piranha was gallant as always and Drumbeats had no luck in the run and was not suited by the tempo. Trusting is racing more honestly now and ran well but didn’t quite run the trip out and is better suited at 1600m. Snow Alert is certainly very close to a win finishing off very strongly late from well back.
Race 7 Matriarch Stakes 2000m
Lee Freedman secured a carnival win with Well Rounded who defied its rating and its $51 price to win. It backed up quickly having ran five days prior to that in a restricted event where it finished 2nd. Well Rounded was coming back from a hairline shoulder fracture sustained last year in the Oaks where she finished 4th. Whilst the win was surprising to all she looked very good beating some very good horses and no doubt she is very high quality. The run of the New Zealand mare Keep The Peace was full of merit particularly as she came from barrier (19). From the outset she was forced to the very back of the field and had to navigate wide through the turn along with Kavanagh’s Zantelagh. She came into the race with a Group 1 victory in New Zealand at 1400 defeating Wall Street and subsequently was placed behind the same horse and the well performed Ginja Dude in two following Group 1 runs both within 1 length of the winner. The run told and despite getting to the outside and looking the probable winner at the 200 she couldn’t bridge the gap on Well Rounded. Zantelagh was very good as was Music Review who finished off very strongly.
Race 8 Queen’s Cup 1600m
Moudre finally got a consolation win after failing to secure a Melbourne Cup win. Williams had some work to do as they went into the last 200m having a horse to it’s outside forcing Williams to have to shoulder out to obtain clear running. When it did get a clear shot Moudre finished off strongly off a tempo that gave all runners their chance. The other big run of this race was Capecover who was 3 lengths behind Moudre in the run up the straight and was finishing off better than anything. Over the final 100 it had to wait for a gap to open up and when it did it flew late. It is ready to win now.
Race 9 Emirates Airline Hcp 1400m
We’re Gonna Rock was backed from $3.60 on Thursday into $2.40 as punters thought it would have too much class for these. However the draw saw it in a position unable to get to the outside of the field without covering an immense amount of additional ground. This horse has a dislike for running inside others and that was clearly evident as it did little and failed to place. We’re Gonna Rock is fast becoming a Bookmakers horse. The race was run by another Bookies horse in the enigmatic Keano who definitely does its best racing here but is hard to catch. With a final 600 of 34.59 the race favoured those on pace and that was how it went with Keano, Adashim and Lady Gaga who were first, second and sixth at the 800.
Horses to follow: Zantelagh, Snow Alert, Capecover.
By Ed Kennett
Senior Form Analyst
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
How does your senior form analyst Mr Ed pick We’re Gonna Rock as the tip of the day… and then in the rap up say the barrier was against it as it doesnt like running inside horses. I would of thought he would of picked that up in his Analysis…… I’d be very interested in a reply however I not holding my breath…..
Cam, you mightn’t get one from Championpicks but I’ll give you my inexpert one. Mr Ed probably assessed it like myself. The horse is a dry track specialist. At its last dry track run it was beaten a long neck by More Joyous in the Group 1 Toorak Hcp. It was in my opinion unlucky and not fully tested in that run. Its rating from that race puts it way ahead of its rivals in an Open Hcp last Saturday – lengths ahead. Since that run it had run a great 5th on an unsuitable heavy track – again in much better company G3. To me this run points to the horse still being in good form and likely to produce close to its peak on saturday. Further support that it would run well was enormous stable confidence. The 1 barrier would be the only downside but if you look at its run in the Toorak, the horse travelled at the tale on the inside and Rodd was able to navigate a path to the outside. A similar ride on the wide open spaces of Flemington in a smaller field would get it out in plenty of time to make a winning run. Even a penalty for the barrier would have the horse well ahead of its rivals. 2.50 seemed a conservative assessment to me. As it turned out the horse went terribly, showed a slower than normal post race recovery and could probably be put in the ‘unreliable’ category for future reference. Still doesn’t detract from the quality of the facts and figures pre-race.
Cam,
No need to hold your breath there mate. I had anticipated Rodd would snag the horse straight back to the tail and make a run wide out past the crown. Unfortunately the field only loped along ( last 600 in 34 mid from memory and so no doubt Rodd knew early on that doing that would have given the horse no chance whatsoever.
He therefore elected to ride the horse closer to the speed and did commence a run inside the majority of the field at the turn. Sometimes tempo does not work out to be as anticipated and that is why many horses fail or vice versa some on pace types are severely disadvantaged when the pace is too genuine. If we all knew the exact tempo of the race it would be easy. I backed the horse and lost and judging from the nature of your comment you did the same. That is unfortunate for both of us.
That being said, if you are going to single out one race and allow a losing bet to affect your psyche as it appears this result did then you are going to find it difficult to win in the long term.
I can assure you i wont always be right, ( in fact all punters are wrong more times than they are right) which is why we need odds to prevail over time.
I can also assure you that I dont spend the hours that I do to try and tip you losers. I also practice what i preach and the result was not good for me either.
To insinuate that I wouldnt reply to your comment however is absurd.
Now you can exhale my friend. Lets move on and find another winner. Ed
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