Let’s start by looking at all runners in the first five in the market for the period 2009-2011.
A one per-cent difference in profit on turnover is not significant, but the fact is 2nd uppers were definitely not a bad betting proposition. Every horse and every race should be assessed on its merits, however as a very general rule the alleged 2nd up syndrome means nothing from a punting perspective.
But let’s dig deeper and focus solely on second uppers and for the purposes of this exercise I have excluded horses with just one career start, because I wanted to only assess those racing second up from a spell.
Track condition
What about today’s track condition? Is it better to be racing second up on a firm track or one with some give?
Well the answer is it doesn’t really make much difference.
Some other factors I looked at where the results didn’t prove to be significant one way or another were the horse’s age and sex, today’s distance and the first up track condition.
Trainers
In our series on first uppers it was interesting to note just how much punters over-rate first up horses from some of the big stables. Some of the biggest names in the Australian training ranks had poor first-up records in terms of their results for punters, but does this carry through to second uppers as well?
A huge disparity there. Waller clearly gives his horses a couple of runs to reach peak fitness and from listening to his interviews at trackwork and pre-race he has made that strategy well known.
Waterhouse runners improve a lot second up (from -19% POT to -2%).
But the biggest standout was Peter Moody whose runners go from -12% first-up to +12% second up.
Summary
The stats show that the alleged second up syndrome is yet another punting myth, so don’t be put off if the horse you fancy has only had one run from a spell.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
POT – is not the correct reference to the 2nd. up effect
the % strike rate in relative terms would help.
But if a horse runs a PB first up , then u will often see the drop in ratings , 2up
This is not a myth .
Its a situation thats not easily detemined by statistics . but by noticing it in the ratings.
Statistics LIE , this is where punters go wrong – STATISTICS – Wrong conclusions
Agree about the first up PB Dareus but the everyday punter would struggle to identify that.
Stats can be interpreted in many ways, but a huge sample size gives a lot of confidence and the fact is the betting market does a good job of assessing second up horses, so in general terms there is no real edge either way.