There is a lot to like about Moonee Valley night meetings.
Friday celebrates the end of the working week for most of us and we can sit back and enjoy a relaxed racing night with in depth pre and post-race analysis.
But if you like winning money there is a strong argument you should change your approach.
That’s because the favourites at Moonee Valley night meetings perform far worse than those racing at the same track during the afternoon.
2nd favourites also perform much worse.
And 3rd favourites.
And 4th favourites.
And 5th favourites.
On the other hand you would have made a profit backing all of those runners outside the top 5 in the market. Now we’re talking about 1200 races in total so it’s a reasonable sample size from which to draw some conclusions.
The graphic below shows the performance (winning strike-rate and profit on turnover) by market position:
So are there valid reasons to explain this huge bias towards outsiders and possibly persuade us that it will continue?
Could it be that the lower grade of horse on a Friday night compared to a typical Saturday meeting means there are many unpredictable results? Does the fact it’s at night throw out the ‘body clocks’ of some horses that simply aren’t used to being at their peak at that time of day? Maybe it’s the lighting, or maybe it’s because so many haven’t raced under lights before?
Whatever the reasons are, the results over a pretty decent period of time make a compelling case for cutting right back on your normal betting and just making it a fun evening. Or you could try and get a big longshot home to make it a night to remember.
Whichever way you go…good luck!
Good punting
David Duffield
{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
My database contains my selections for MV since Aug 2006. The results echo the SP record.
MV day. Top 2 selections:
1120 bets
285 winners-25%S/R or 50% Race S/R
POT: 28%
MV Night Top two
922 bets
176 winners-19%S/R or 38% Race S/R
POT: 7%
Of the Night selections only SP ranks 1,5,6 and 7 are winning.
I also noted on Wednesday that one tip was for Maxisun. He has not won a race for 473 days, though to be fair, 336 of those days were spelling. Nevertheless I am very wary of such runners. My database tells me that only 6% of horses who have not one for more than 12 months, win and they win only 13% of races. Those who start fav have the best win rate.
Hi Nick,
Maxisun was gelded during his break and returned from a spell with a very good run behind First Command who then went on to run well in the GRP1 in NZ. I’m also wary of horses that haven’t won for a very long time are a risky proposition long term but felt on the back of his first up effort he was worth the risk.
Thanks for your input.
Regards,
Rick
Hi Rick,
Yes, I can understand the leaning to Maxisun given his first up run.
Saturday just goes to show that you have to be flexible in applying the ‘rules’ you develop over time. Rockpecker broke 2 of mine: he hasn’t won for over 2 years and more than a dozen runs, and I dont expect horses beyond 3 yo to do something they have failed at before. In 6 goes Rockpecker had not won first up. Worst thing for me was that I eliminated him from my market even though his rating when first up on a Slow track at MV last time was high enough to win his Sat race. Live and learn!!
That is interesting about the ‘Nightmares at the Valley’. I thought it was only a couple of years ago that the bookies were complaining and crying in their bags, because too many favourites were winning at the night meetings.