The Group 1 Underwood Stakes is the highlight of tomorrow’s ‘Carnival Preview Day’ at Caulfield. So just like we did for Rosehill last week, let’s take a closer look at results at the Caulfield track to see if there are any angles to work with.
Focusing on the last four seasons and runners under 10/1 we’ll start with the record of the big trainers at Caulfield. Smerdon, Moody and Price runners return excellent figures at the track, while the Hayes and O’Brien stables have been highly unprofitable:
POT% Trainer
+25 R Smerdon
+8 P Moody
+1 M Price
-6 M Kavanagh
-22 D Hayes
-28 D O’Brien
(POT% = Profit on Turnover)
Next we will look at the jockeys and Chris Symons is very much an under-rated Caulfield rider, whereas Craig Newitt has been costly for punters:
POT% Jockey
+22 C Symons
-2 L Nolen
-2 N Hall
-6 D Dunn
-6 G Boss
-10 C Williams
-10 D Oliver
-34 C Newitt
Since Symons Caulfield record is so impressive I thought it was worth asking him a few questions regarding his approach there:
DD: How differently do you ride Caulfield compared to a roomier track such as Flemington?
CS: For luck because horses seem to fan which opens opportunity to get runs.
DD: Where do you like to be in the run?
CS: Ideally the one-one but also 3 back the fence.
DD: Do you consider barriers to be very important?
CS: Most definitely, especially from the 1400m where it always helps to be an inside draw.
DD: How do you handle horses that haven’t raced at the track before?
CS: No differently to any horse that has not been to any track before.
Now let’s consider the going and it turns out the track condition wasn’t important one way or another:
POT% Going
-9 Good
-7 Dead
-11 Slow
-4 Heavy
Some people consider Caulfield a tricky track for first-timers, but when you assess the results it is clear that this is already factored into the market as there is little difference from a punting perspective:
POT% Caulfield starts
-7 0
-9 1+
There is little to be gleaned from the profitability by barrier draw as there is no firm pattern:
POT Barrier
-9 1-4
-11 5-8
0 9+
A quick summary of Caulfield:
- Home track trainers Smerdon, Moody and Price perform very well
- The Hayes and O’Brien stables have struggled there in recent years
- Chris Symons has a great Caulfield record which contrasts starkly with Craig Newitt
- Don’t be put off by no previous experience at the track
- Barriers are already factored into the price
That was a very brief overview of the Caulfield track and is only intended as a starting point for further research and analysis. Before betting tomorrow you will need to take a far wider and more in-depth approach if you’re serious about winning.
Good punting
David Duffield
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
The Caulfield track for sprinters with only one turn can be very inviting. All the basics must be in place. The right race and (usually r4 -8) ,weight, barrier, jockey, track condition (after 3 races), wind factor.and above all VALUE. Take the opportunity to inspect horse on arrival,saddling, parade and preliminary. These days one could have 50 % on pre – post in whatever ratio of your comfort zone with top up on course. In the old days with only one bet on the card I found this method kept me in the game. Today with Betfair you could lay the no value shorties by simply observing how a horse presents. If only TVN could do it right. Tomorrow I am with you on Sea Galleon and would like to thank Sportingbet for the $4.30 place. Thank you David.
Regards John