Choosing barrier 11 for More Joyous quite obviously backfired, but as form analysts we don’t draw all encompassing conclusions from a single race. Instead we will look at all Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan meetings since 2007 from a punting perspective, rather than what trainers focus on which is purely the horses winning chance.
So how does the market factor in the relative importance of barrier positions?
The answer is that inside barriers are over-rated and over-bet. Individual tracks will be covered later, but would you believe there is a not a single metropolitan NSW or Victorian track where the barrier 1-4 bracket was the best performer?
Let’s start with the overall numbers:
Now let’s break it down by each track, starting with the barrier 1-4 bracket where you can see a double digit loss on turnover at every venue except for Canterbury and Moonee Valley:
Before finishing off with the barrier brackets side-by-side here is a quick summary of each track:
Canterbury: Bucks the trend since outside barriers perform worse.
Caulfield: Outside barriers are clearly better value.
Flemington: Not a huge differential other than inside barriers are overbet.
Moonee Valley: Outside barriers perform well, but the poor profitability of middle gates adds an element of doubt.
Randwick: Avoid inside barriers.
Randwick Kensington: Clear profit from the more than 1100 runners drawn wide.
Rosehill: Middle barriers performed the best.
Sandown Hillside: Outside barriers clearly the best value.
Sandown Lakeside: Ditto.
Warwick Farm: The runaway #1 track for the betting advantage of outside barriers.
{ 8 comments… read them below or add one }
shouldnt the percentages at each track add up to 100%
eg Canterbury barrier 1-4 = 12% winners
5-8 = 10% over 9 = 7% adds up to 29%
sorry I must be missing something
The 12% winners is the average for each of those 4 barriers.
So another way of looking at it is around 48% winners come from barrier 1-4.
Does that make sense Graham?
Does this discussion about barriers take into account if the rail is not in its true position? For instance at Moonie Valley, I have heard folklore that if the rail is true, it favours front runners and if is out, swoopers are the way to bet. Not sure if that has anything to do with results from which barrier the horses jump. Not even sure if results do suggest if that bit of folklore is correct.
Cheers.
It doesn’t Brian, no. The data covers all rail positions.
sorry for the ignorant question, but what are the two Randwick and Sandown tracks ? How does one know which track is being used ?
It’s listed in the form guide. Just look for Kensington (so you know it’s not the main Randwick track) and then at Sandown make sure you take note of whether it’s Hillside or Lakeside.
Surely the distance of the race would be factor.I would be very wary of backing a horse outside barrier 5 in a 1000.1200 and 1400 meters ( dependind on what track and ground condition I say )
ps Thank you for a great 1.5 hour webinar last night (01/11/”12.
The thing is everyone wants to back horses drawn in for sprint races so they can be just as poor value as they are for staying races. It’s not so much the winning percentage we’re concerned about, it is the profitability.
Glad you enjoyed the webinar.