AMERICAIN
Trainer Rating A Dupre 8/10
Obviously a previous winner of the race and he will need a soft track to be given any chance . His last run in the “hype’ race Deauville Prix Kergorlay was poor – he had the run of the race had perfect conditions in an Australian type slow to heavy track and was the first beaten off the bit early and despite what the media would have you believe all his runs with David Hayes were well below what he used to be able to be produce. Unless its very wet he can’t possibly improve enough to win. Ignore his high Timeform rating as on present form he isn’t stretching out like he used to and the owners seem to be clutching at straws with this preparation. He unfortunately is on the downward spiral and can’t win. He will attract plenty of mug money and is helping to make the market for some of the others.
Caulfield Cup : For the above reasons he is no hope as he needs at least 2800m to wind up and is not going to be fast enough to put himself into the race – can easily be layed even though the Caulfield Cup looks like being extremely weak for the second year in a row.
DUNADEN
Trainer Rating M Dezangles 7/10
Jockey: Craig Williams- 8.5 /10
Melbourne Cup : Last year’s winner and without a doubt he is going at least 4-5 lengths better than when we last saw him. His form in France and UK is without doubt the very best form of any horse currently in Australia. Reportedly had a foot issue but if he is over that he looks extremely hard to beat and in what looks like being a much weaker Melbourne Cup than Last year (4-6 lengths). If this race was run in Europe this horse would start $2.80-$3 and is clearly the one to beat. His sectionals and overall time he has run in Europe this year has been a marked improvement. History says carrying the weight isn’t done but this is a genuine WFA horse and it will make no difference and most of his opposition if a true handicap should be getting 10-12kgs.
Caulfield Cup: Again with the lack of depth especially in the Caulfield Cup this year he has to be the horse to beat .Is way over the odds at current prices of around $13
RED CADEAUX
Trainer Rating: Ed Dunlop 5/10
Melbourne Cup : Ran a cracker last year when connections and his previous history suggested he needed a firm track but got a soft track and ran a ripper. Even with some poor rides on Dunaden this year he hasn’t been able to crack beating him home. Simply wont beat Dunaden and hence can’t win albeit he will be in the top 10 again
JAKKALBERRY
Trainer Rating Marco Botti 3/10
Melbourne Cup : Reportedly working well in Trackwork but is simply making up the numbers. He was a super Listed/Group 3 horse on the world stage – but that was 3 years ago. At best would be hoping to run 10th in the Melbourne Cup to pick up $100k. Realitically should be heading for a Country Cup somewhere instead of the Dance.
WINCHESTER
Trainer Rating J Sadler : 6/10
Melbourne Cup: Has ran OK in two runs this time in but he is untried at this trip and is not getting any better. I wish the connections well and hopefully for them he can run 9th of 10th but that would be the best he could finish, not a winning chance despite this years lack of depth.
VOILA ICI
Trainer Rating – P Moody – 8.5/10
MC : An absolute nutcase of a horse but he has never been tried at this trip and expect him to melt under the big crowds and the distance of a Melbourne Cup. This horse’s best form is 2000-2200m. Whilst he has won a 2800m race it was run at a dawdle and he should make the pace in the Melbourne Cup but is no real hope of winning and is making up the numbers. Its worth noting his runs here despite the media hype have been very ordinary and run in very ordinary figures. On these weak efforts he is no real hope.
CC: Again being 2400m this is at his maximum and he will really be paddling – connections will be hoping he can hang on for a minor cheque in 6th-10th but is not a winning chance.
CAVALRYMAN
Trainer : Saeed Bin Saroor – 7/10
MC: Unfortunately Darley have the right horses to win this race but they are becoming a bit laughable in that they continue to bring the wrong horses. Whilst this horse has some two mile form his class for this type of race suggests he could need a massive improvement – Top 10 chance but will be a genuine 50/1 shot.
SANAGAS
Trainer : B Cummings 4/10
MC: Most will question my rating on the Great Bart Cummings but most know that the great man is rarely hands on these days and unfortunately that is showing in his results. However even Bart at his best and fully hands on couldn’t help this fellow. Reportedly has a million issues that cant be fixed and unfortunately plenty of mugs will do their money on this horse. He has failed to run on and realistically couldn’t win even if he got a head start. He has never been tried at the trip.
CC: Again will be making up the numbers – Some will say he won a Group 1 in the USA but the form from that race is equivalent to a Offseason City race – and he is no hope. Connections would be better served to look for a minor Country Cup like a Horsham Cup and save their money on the expensive race nominations.
MOUNT ATHOS
Trainer : L Cumani 6.5/10
MC: Clearly the bookmakers playing on the hype of the Luca Cumani. This horse has certainly improved from his previous trainer but this horse needs a good to dead 4 track only and whilst he looks like he will run the trip his issue is he won’t run it fast enough and the fact he is favourite is a complete joke. He has failed to run a slick sectional or even decent overall time and really is a false favourite and should be 30/1. If he and Dunaden where to race in Europe one would be $1.70 and the other $40/1- such is the class gap. Slow horses very rarely win good races and this fellow simple isn’t fast enough.First up 3000m + might be fine for Europe but these races are run nothing like they are in Europe and he is a not a chance
GLENCADAM GOLD
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse 7/10
MC: This horse was always a nice horse in England and had serious ability. In the UK he was a serious horse to a degree and im of the opinion he hasn’t improved that much , which sounds unusual in that he has just won a Group 1. However the Group 1 event he won has to rank outside the Caulfield Stakes on Saturday as one of the worst Group 1′s of the year and to be fair it was a genuine Group 3 race at best. In an even year I’m confident this horse is just a Group 3 horse only as that was his level in the UK- however this is a weak year but on what he has done so far I think he is a serious distance doubt and still won’t be good enough. He is grossly under the odds. One point to note is last prep (his 2nd ever prep) he didn’t train on – was there a problem or was it his constitution?
CC: He has yet to run time in Australia and has been handed his races on a plate and beat at best Group 3 horses. He has also only raced in very small fields and he goes in the CC way up in class and couldn’t win on what he has done so far – He should be 20/1 not Favourite.
TAC DE BOISTRON
Trainer : Mick Kent 5/10
MC : A very surprising purchase I must say – a horse that despite what people say can’t run a sectional to save himself. He comes through some very suspect form and id be suggesting he is way too slow – Slow horses don’t win good races!
CC: He needs 3000m to warm up and is well outclassed and not much hope.
MY QUEST FOR PEACE
Trainer: L Cumani 6.5 /10
MC: A nice Progressive horse on paper but unfortunately he gets a very weak rider and the bred have been proven to not be hardy horses and be able to handle tough racing. His form is OK but my main issue is he has run terrible time in his races and he doesn’t have the necessary turn of foot to be competitive on what he has done in Europe. He is a on pace horse and I expect if he gets a run will be gone at the 800m. Trained differently he does have some upside if he was to stay in Australia for next year – however his ideal conditions are wet tracks, no pressure and small fields and he gets none of that in Australia in the Melbourne Cup
CC: Unfortunately his cruising speed isn’t sufficient enough and he is going to need the run.
FIORENTE
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute 10/10/ Gai Waterhouse 7/10
MC : Coming here first up and if its one thing I know is that you don’t touch Michael Stoute horses as the majority of them leave his yard and lose a leg. Ask Chris Waller with Waringah! You don’t become a “SIR” for nothing and his record with horses is legendary and no horse ever leaves his yard and improves. Your only hope buying off him is to buy them under 2-3 starts and this one has had several preps so you can be assured he wont have a whole lot left in the tank. His best runs have up on the speed which will suit Gai – but he also will need a slow track at this level. He is a nice enough horse and might be one for next year if he hasn’t blown up.
GALILEO’S CHOICE
Trainer : D Weld 9/10
MC: Its last run was in ok time for the day but hardly that of a coming Group 1 horses. Again he is a top trainer but I have to risk him with the first up run as that form and type of run would be only Group 3 Grade. Again outside of the Weld factor I’d suggest this is a Top 10 possible chance and this horse has largely only seen very wet tracks in recent runs and the most recent run on a equivalent slow 6 he got beaten 10 lengths and to me didn’t stride out.
UNUSUAL SUSPECT
Trainer: M Kent 5/10
MC: Has proven that US form is normally NZ grade form and he has been one of many expensive flops and has really done nothing since he has been brought. Couldn’t win if he cut through the infield and I hope the Committee use their discretion and vote him out.
LOST IN THE MOMENT
Trainer: S Bin Suroor 7/10
MC: This horse isn’t even qualified albeit may sneak in – but is not good enough , flogged by Moyeine Corniche and he is getting beaten in ratings raced class races here – albeit he does have a few issues. He really only fully extends on wet tracks and probably wont get that here either.
BRIGANTIN
Trainer: A Fabre 7/10
MC : He will run the trip but they all do to some degree and whilst there is lots of good mail around about him on what he has done in Europe he isn’t up to the class – He was never a winning hope and came down the best start of the track last start. He has raced Dunaden up there and started 32/1 against him which should tell you all you need to know – and that was when Dunaden was not the horse he is now. He has very little explosiveness but due to this year’s weakness he could run top 5 albeit he can’t win.
PRAIRIE STAR
Trainer : J Hammond / D O’Brien 4/10
MC :Formerly trained by E Ellouche in France who is renowned for ‘smashing’ his horses and I’m confident to say that this horse has been gutted as his runs have been very dour and he has lost all interest. If he raced up to his 3yr old races he would be a great chance but he is a horse that has a lot of problems and has been gutted by his early racing. I’ve never heard of the trainer which is a big concern and can’t find him in the top 200 trainers in France. D O’brien has struggled for a while in training local horses and handling a European is never easy. His first start for this combination saw him get beaten 8 lengths and he was the first one off the bit and struggling .His runs before that where in our Equivalent Listed Grade and he will be a expensive flop.
GATEWOOD
Trainer: John Gosden 8/10
MC: A horse that is not sure to get a run and whilst he has a nice profile he is another than hasn’t shown the X factor. Galileo’s are also quite weak in general and i don’t think he will suit our conditions. He might improve under Waller in time but I think the Melbourne Cup might come too quick – If he gets a run include him in the exotics though as he has at least in the UK run some decent times on more than one occasion. His on pace profile though isn’t ideal as he becomes a sitting shot.
IBICENCO
Trainer : L Cumani
MC: he is unfortunately another very expensive flop and has gone backwards under Cumani. He has no turn of foot and is very dour and slow. Should be set for the Darwin Cup.
SHAHWARDI
Trainer : A Dupre 9/10
MC: His last run in France was OK coming up the slow part of the track and not getting the race run to suit. Had a monster sprint especially the last 200m in his Australian Debut. Has always had the ability but quite often got lost with some issues – but if he stays sound he looks like being the only one of the Europeans that can Challenge Dunaden. Kept fresh and with his good turn of foot he can run top 3.
In Summary, like most years there are few chances in the Melbourne Cup. Dunaden is the one they all have to beat albeit I think he will be more wound up for the Caulfield Cup and if he gets a penalty it will make it so much harder for him. Shahwardi is the other one that can win the race with Australia’s best hope being Green Moon
{ 34 comments… read them below or add one }
What is Luke’s form like? How did he go with last year’s cup predictions?
We didn’t speak to him before last year’s Cups. But when we last spoke he did pot More Joyous and Atlantic Jewel.
Thanks David
Tac de Boistron seems to have had the wood on Shahwardi in Europe recently (beat it home twice), so wondering why MC rates them significantly the other way??
Luke didn’t think that Shahwardi was fully wound up in Europe, but down here those issues are resolved and he is absolutely thriving.
He thinks Tac de Boistron may struggle in the Melbourne Cup when the pace goes on at the 800m as he is a fairly dour one pacer.
Thanks David
I like Luke’s thinking.. I have the in order Shahwardi, Dunaden & Brigantin
Does Luke think then that Shahwardi is a Caulfield Cup hope….
He’s not in the CC
You have to like a guy who has an opinion so well done to Luke but I must correct him on My Quest For Peace when he said that he likes it wet. He is a duffer in the wet even though he has won on soft and is desperate for a good track.
Also 7/10 on S Bin Suroor is very kind.
RED CADEAUX
Trainer Rating: Ed Dunlop 5/10
Melbourne Cup : Ran a cracker last year when connections and his previous history suggested he needed a firm track but got a soft track and ran a ripper.
I thought the cup was run on a good track last year???
Luke is the mostest . I value his opinion to call it how it really is and have had a substantial on Dunaden.
The Gods of the Turf may smile on Craig Williams and make this a Spring to remember. Thank you David,
Thank you Luke.
I agree mostly as I have my method for distance races. Backed Shahwardi on Saturday, will be hard to beat on that run. However disagree with Tac De Boistron, has the wood on Shahwardi. Also Red Cadeaux will be there at the business end. Best local if gets a run is Alcopop top run on Saturday.
Doesn’t know who John Hammond is….How about training Montjeu to win a French Derby, Irish Derby, Arc and King George. Granted he doesn’t have too many horses but is a very canny trainer. Agree comments on Bin Suroor’s 7/10 rating…..generous at best. Great article though, always good to read an article where someone really puts near jugement on the line. Still think Red Cadeaux will run 1st 3 in Melb Cup. Thanks.
Fair enough about Montjeu there Mark you cant argue about those big race wins for Hammond. But in Luke’s defence that was a long time ago now.
Great article! Hope he and Todd are right with there reviews! have put on some doubles as well as reasonable wager on Dunaden!
Is this bloke for real? He’s saying My Quest For Peace needs wet track but all his form is on a dry track, does he not do the form?
Why allow someone like Luke pot Bart Cummings is beyond me. In terms of achievements Bart 100 Luke zero.
Also at the same time with Sanagas who I have a toe of, telling the owners they are mugs and the BC3 people are idiots who dont know what they are doing. Sanagas was one of the most vetted horses to come into Australia so he is also potting the vets integrity. All this from the people who foisted Lucas Cranach on us.
Your site hasn’t been one to have this angry smart alec style of journalism before so why this is there beats me.
There’s no way he’s potting Bart’s career, that would be crazy. But at his age and with his health issues meaning he can’t be hands-on, Luke doesn’t rate the Cummings stable in it’s current form.
Luke has strong opinions and is the antithesis of the fence-sitting commentators who give every horse a winning chance. Personally I think that is a good thing, but I do wish you well with Sanagas.
Regards
Dave
Firstly Dave he rates Bart as a 4/10 trainer. Thats a joke.
The bigger issue is the lies about the horse with a million issues that cant be fixed. Now I have been onto to BC3 about this and it is an absolute lie. This Luke has no involvement with BC3, the owners of sanagas or Bart.
It is very disappointing that your site has allowed luke to make up things about the horse that are just not true. If he thinks the horse is no good that is his right, but what he has said here about the million issues that cant be fixed is a lie. No more no less, and one that can easily be checked. It brings into question the integrity of the people involved. And for what? a smart alec review.
Very interesting analysis. I note Luke gives no chance to Australian horses (Green moon an import) however I have a big opinion of Ethiopia and give it a chance in the Cox Plate and more so in the MC. Be interested in his opinion or that of others.
Hi Just to respond to a few of the points in order
Dave: my mail is Ethiopia wont go to the MC
Greg Dick: Bart has trained his horses hands on for at least 2 years and hasn’t been seen at trackwork for even longer- the results show- we probably will never see a better conditioner of horses- but when he doesn’t have his finger on the pulse like all trainers the results are very evident- i wasn’t trying to be smart at all- just watching Sanagas run you can tell he isn’t right and i truly feel sorry for the owners who have tipped in $750k plus on this horse and then $1m on Val Champ- unfortunately those horses will never give them a decent run for their money in relation to the expectations. In respect to BC3- this is a results based industry and their two horses have had 5 starts and earnt a total of $8960(by cheques where for running last due to find numbers) and they have cumulatively raced 61 horses in Australia and beaten 9 home
Luke: my quest for peace has won a dry track but his best runs have been rain effected and not firm tracks- it also highlights my point on this horse that he has failed to run time when produced on a firm track and when stepped up in class he has needed the sting out- but again that is evident through his stride
Nindy: whilst it was offiocially a good track there was no doubt getitng into the track and is was a lot worse than a good 3 – dont forget those peno readings can largely be just a guide
Scott: In regrds to Suroor- i too had the opinion he was in the 3rd tier of trainers but the blokes strike in Europe at least is pretty damn good 19%,28%,23%,15%,19% is his strike rates the last 5 years .I surprised me i must admit- although i think Snowden has the length of the straight on him.
Graham: i agree on the surface Brigatin looks to have the wood on him- but ive analysed them on Aus racing and Brigantin i feel wont be as well suited- i know also they have been deliberately playing games with Shahwardi with this race being the aim for over 6 months- Dermot Weld also does similar things with his horses. The Dunaden camp did the same thing last year also.
Nindy: In regards to last years prediction i backed my judgement as i brough Lucas Cranach from Germany and considering he got hurt on the eve of MC i think he went well- Whether we ever see the best of him is debatable but ive no doubt he is by far the best horse in Australia fully sound.
For the record i never meant to be controversal – i was asked for my opinion as for the last 12 months all i have done is look to buy European Horses for Australia and have watched and rated ever race in Italy,Germany,Spain!,Uk France and Irealand and Argentina. One horse i would have loved to have seen come to Australia was Jackleberry brother in CRACKERJACK KING – if he was given to a good trainer and set for the Cox plate he woudl have won that with his head on his chest- but unfortunately the current trainer has trained 10 lengths off him.
Having looked at the Caulfied Cup Field my top pick clearly is going to need a freak of a ride as from out there i can’t see him getting in and i don’t think the pace will be suffiecent enough for the backmarkers. From the speed map Glencadem Gold due to the lack of depth,LOH and Sneak a Peak look best suited in my opinion.
For all those who liked the information thanks for the kind words
You dont get it Luke, pot the horseall you like thats racing, but you have gone out of your way to be rude to a genuine Australian Living Legend, not only on his training ability but saying he is happy to train a horse that isnt right, have you reported this? I doubt it.
As for my expectations in Sanagas. Mine, and some others that are in him, our first and foremost expectation was to have a runner in the cups. So we have achieved far more than what we would have if we went with Mawingo or others.
Now its not for me to defend BC3 but we have and had a number of horses with them, the way they have looked after us is far beyond what is accepted in this industry. I think now that maybe there is some professional jealousy in your comment as you have also slammed Darren Dances horse picking ability.
You and others should wake up, people dont want to see this sort of anger and rudeness anymore in the media. Now I am sure that you will be at the MC, make sure that you let Bart know that he is finished and cruel to his horses and tell the BC3 team they are duds. Or just sit back as many keyboard heros do and say nothing
Thanks Luke…this is very interesting stuff. There is an old saying: “‘you can tell a man his wife is not attractive and he won’t say a thing, tell him horse is no good and he will shoot you!’
I like the fact you have an opinion..keep up the good work.
Luke,
Many thanks for your views and in particular Dunaden.
I was going to have an interest bet on him but after reading your opinion I backed him with a bonus bet I had.
I won $2400 so once again many thanks.
Good on ya Hugh!
Love your work Luke it’s refreshing to read someone with an honest opinion and not the crap the mainstream media write! Well done alerting us to Dunaden i certainly took notice and took the $17 last week. For those who didn’t like this info you better get back to listening to all the BS fairy floss stuff on Sky.
I bet for a living and just to add my 2 cents worth in anyone who is looking to buy a horse from overseas should get Luke TO HAVE A LOOK OVER IT FIRST MIGHT SAVE U ALOT OF TIME AND MONEY.I dont know him my self but from what i have had a look at he does know his stuff outstanding work and refreshing in this day and age.
I think Greg Dick is the one who is the one who does not quite get it. The rating of 4/10 is based on the current form of stable which is owned by Bart. Greg has obviously invested in horses so should really recognize that.
Many thanks to Luke for an informative article and I also took his advise and backed Dunaden.
Peer and David: You need to read the article and the replies as you have either misread it completely or are just trolling.
No problem at all in anyone potting the horse and its ability that everyone’s right.
Telling lies about it is a different matter.
No need at all to rubbish Bart, that is just the act of a bitter small minded man.
Still I have at least one runner in the Melbourne Cup which was my aim and Luke has none so I feel sorry for all the people who have poured millions into his horses and wound up with a big fat Zero.
David people who boast about betting for a living are normally talking rubbish.
Greg u dont know me or what i do to make a comment like that speaks for it self i would think all the best with your cup horse.
Brilliant analysis of Dunaden and the Caulfield Cup Luke, you were spot on. It’s really nice to read educated opinions on horses from someone who doesn’t sit on the fence. Looking forward to hearing your preview of the Melbourne Cup!
id be interested in lukes mc tips after the lexus, and his best of the aussies for the race…
We’ll get Luke’s Cup tips here on the blog on Monday. He likes Dunaden, Americain and Galileo’s Choice. Cavalryman a place chance. Mourayan best of the locals.