The Australian Cup is always a great race and I am a fairly strong believer that proven Weight For Age horses will continue to win WFA races.
The scratching of Zipping has made this a very open race and I am not convinced that Heart Of Dreams is a strong favourite. As impressive as he was last start I’m still not certain he will be strong enough at the business end of the 2000m here to win.
Shocking, Moudre and Linton are a handful of stayers that have been getting too far back and running good sectionals. My initial feeling is that they will again struggle here, with the possible exception of Shocking who is proven at WFA and does seem to grow another leg once he gets to 2000m+ and Flemington.
Playing God is the 3yo starter who ran in last Saturday’s Australian Guineas. While he has won at WFA against the older horses before, that was in the Spring under a better WFA scale for 3yos. It’s interesting to note that since the WFA scale changed in 1999 thirteen 3yos have run in the Australian Cup for no wins, three placegetters and 10 unplaced. Add that to the fact that the horses Playing God beat in that race (Impressive Jeuney was 2nd, Triple Honour and Black Piranha unplaced) aren’t good enough to win a race like this and I think he will find this too hard.
I wouldn’t be too quick to put the line through Scenic Shot. He won the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track over 2000m back in 2009 and is a proven top class performer. He had 2010 off due to some wear and tear and has been asked to lump very big weights since his return.
Precedence has always promised to deliver and although he hasn’t thus far, he reminds me a little of Maldivian in the way he is maturing and his last start run was good. Five of his six wins have come over 2000m+, although he is yet to win at WFA.
Ginga Dude performed very well in the St George after an interrupted preparation for the race when he was stuck on the tarmac for a lengthy period after landing from New Zealand. He has won 9 of his 12 starts on good/dead tracks and I think it’s a myth that he needs it wet to perform well. Last start he hit his straps really well late and was 62 days between runs.
Mr Charlie was competitive behind Americain and Moudre last prep with his form in the Geelong Cup. Moody has shown in the past he can implement the European training style and produce them first up over a distance. He is one that should be kept safe.
Cedarberg comes through the Mornington Cup, a race he would clearly have won had the jockey not gone so early.
I am yet to complete my full analysis of the race, but here are the early ratings as a guide:
Good punting
Rick Williams
