Only a tiny percentage of punters (around 3%) have a long-term profitable record. That is not meant to be patronising or a put-down, it is just a fact. Clearly the millions in TAB and bookies profits have to come from somewhere.
(1) Losers only worry about trying to back winners. Winning punters focus on finding value runners.
(2) Losers say you can’t eat value. Winners say you can’t eat unless you keep getting it.
(3) Losers want to bet every race, every day. Winners are addicted to winning, not punting.
(4) Losers think drawn 1 always means drawn well. Winners know that these horses are often overbet and that backmarkers drawn inside are poison.
(5) Losers believe that famous punting sayings like ‘odds-on, look on’ or ‘second up syndrome’ must be true because they are repeated so often. Winners question everything.
(6) Losers look solely at winning strike-rates. Winners place more emphasis on profitability.
(7) Losers ignore the mathematics of odds, percentages, staking and variance. Winners embrace it and expect variance in the short-term and reversion to the mean in the long-term.
(8) Losers think that a losing run means they are due. Winners understand that probability has no memory.
(9) Losers think speed maps are only for trainers and jockeys. Winners rely heavily on speed maps because without knowing what’s likely to happen early in a race it’s very difficult to know what will happen late.
(10) Losers love to blackbook and bet on get-back horses that finish hard. Winners focus on on-pace horses that make their own luck.
(11) Losers ‘do the form’ using the same information as everyone else. Winners produce or get access to information that others do not.
(12) Losers think overall and sectional times are too hard. Winners base much of their form analysis on assessing times.
(13) Losers think short priced horses can’t possibly be value. Winners understand odds and percentages (plus the favourite/longshot bias) means any price can be value.
(14) Losers are easily led and listen to anyone with an opinion. Winners are confident to the point of being insular and stubborn.
(15) Losers follow the market. Winners lead it.
(16) Losers stake their bets according to gut instinct. Winners have a staking plan that balances risk and reward.
(17) Losers have a plan, but only until they have a great run or a poor one and it is actually needed. Winners operate in a methodical manner whether red-hot or ice-cold.
(18) Losers rely on one bookie’s offer of good odds. Winners shop around to find the best prices and understand better odds can dramatically increase your profits.
(19) Losers spend no time at all assessing the form after a race has been run. Winners spend as much time post-race as they do pre-race.
(20) Losers don’t worry about keeping records. Winners regard their results spreadsheet as the best betting information they read most days.
(21) Losers count their profit or loss by the day. Winners look long-term and realise punting is a marathon, not a sprint.
(22) Losers think the missing ingredient in their (lack of) punting success is luck. Winners realise you get exactly what you deserve and nothing more.
The bookies literally have the odds in their favour. To beat that edge and then to finish in front requires a winner’s mindset, work ethic, strategies and staking.
Good punting
David Duffield
{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }
Each and every point above would seem to be so true, and if I could, I would follow all the winning ways.
There’s just one thing.
To a novice like me, and perhaps quite a few others, just how do you know a “value” bet.
How do I know the horse paying a bit more than the favourite, is a better bet than the favourite???
Chas we have an approach that combines objective factors (data) and subjective ones (our own assessments) to calculate the probability of each horse winning the race. This probability is then converted into a rated price.
But if you’re trying to do it yourself I think your best bet is to find your own edge by specialising. That might be in a particular state or region, or by going really in-depth into one key aspect of the form. For example sectional times, or jockey ratings, or stayers, or ….
Another great article….If I could sum up all the above in just one word that word would be DISCIPLINE…without it success in punting is impossible…..you have to be cool under pressure…when everything is going against you and you start doubting the ratings and listening to corner tips you’re punting success is gone…of the 3% winners mentioned above I would think that they were already very disciplined before they even started punting….the fact that I myself have to TRY to be disciplined is probably a sign that long-term punting may not be for me….if on raceday morning you are saying to yourself “I will be disciplined today…I will be disciplined today”….and then at the end of the day you’re saying…”what happened?’ that is also a sign that punting may not be ideal for you as a profit venture…just do your 100 or 200 and be done with it…I read an interesting article lately from a university reaearch group and it said there was no such thing as a gambling “addict” because there were no “physical withdrawals”.They preferred to use the term “obsession” rather than “addiction” and claim to have had more success treating obsession as opposed addiction….Discipline counts for everything in punting and if you have to try to have it I’d seriously rethink your punting goals…
Agree about the discipline Steven. Undoubtedly one of the hardest things in punting but definitely one of (if not the) most important.
All 22 of these are extremely valid and of equal consequence. GREAT advice !!
I’d like to add one more…(crossing fingers)…THAT the horse and jockey leave the barriers TOGETHER when the gates are opened…NO buck-jumping..NO rearing..NO backward movement…NO..NO…NO….missing the START…#@$%$# !!
Even the Waterhouse stable throws one of these out. I know I’m asking the impossible..but I might have a ‘solution’ !
It’s called ‘the Tickler effect’. Every single wayward son and daughter gets the benefit of this ….after each race and before the very next run they are examined by ‘the tickler’ . I’m told that after this…the conveyance literally charges out of the barrier with the poor jock holding on for dear life. Just a thought.
Do the best form you can including assess prices and do not change your mind because of tips.
Get as much information from as many sources as you can and make your own mind up. Articles revolve around what will sell best to their customers, not their pocket. So that is why hype is so valuable.
Something I’ve never been able to reconcile, points 7 & 8. By variance I’m assuning you mean peaks & troughs in your betting.
We often hear pro services telling us to ‘hang in there’ as a losing run will eventually turn around but if probability has no memory as you say theoretically a losing run can last forever just as a winning run could.
Of course we all know the odds of this happening are over a million to one but as Terry Prattchett says
“million to one shots crop up nine times out of ten” Especially if you are betting in Brisbane….;)
By variance I mean that in the short-term there will be losing runs even if you have a profitable edge. Using the common example of a coin toss, you know that 90% heads in 20 tosses can happen, but that over 1000 tosses it’s going to be very close to 50/50.
Many people seem to think professionals win every single week and month but the fact is that no-one does. So as you say there will always be peaks and troughs along the way.
David
Article is good common sense but something we bad punters lose sight of.
Can you shed any light on the impact of say a 4 kg weight rise has on the time a horse runs? I ask as I think Eucumbene looks in a good race tomorrow but I can’t help but think I am missing something as it’s going up 4kg+ on it’s last wins?
Thanks
Geoff
I’d need to run the stats to be sure Geoff, but last time I checked a horse rising significantly in weight wasn’t a huge negative from a punting perspective.
Clearly a horse going up 4kg has to be one or both of in-form and or down in class.
Eucumbene’s race isn’t a betting one for us at this stage, but we have it rated around $2.50 in a 100% market.