Trial Spy – Annual Roundup for 2013

by Admin on January 7, 2014

Well the 2013 year has come and gone, and so has the first year of Trial Spy with Champion Picks.

It was a fantastic year and I just want to say a big thank you to all of you for your loyal following. I’ve enjoyed corresponding with many of you via e-mail, and have loved hearing of your successes.

The service started on February 22. It took until February 24 for the first official Trial Spy winner, but it was a great one with Templestone getting home at $23.

In just over 10 months of operation we achieved the following:

  • 221.41 units profit ($22,141 profit betting $100 per unit)
  • A Return on Investment (ROI) of 221% on our 100 unit bank
  • Profit on Turnover (POT%) figure was 17.43% which when competitor benchmarked is industry leading
  • 764 betting races for 302 winners at a winning race strike rate of 39.53%.

Some highlights have included:

  • Templestone – $23 (Bet 0.5 units win, 11.5 unit collect)
  • Magna Amica – $21 (Bet 0.5u win, 10.5u collect)
  • Federica – $19.20 (Bet 0.5u win, 9.6u collect)
  • Maroon Bay – $18.90 (Bet 0.35u win, 6.62u collect)
  • Zoustar – $17 (Golden Rose Futures Bet – backed 16 August, won on 14 September- 1u win for a 17u collect)
  • Signoret – $11.30 (Bet 1u win, 11.3u collect)
  • Smiles For Layla – $10.40 (Bet 1.5u win, 15.6u collect)
  • General Exhibit – $7.50 (Bet 1.5u each way, 15.57u collect)
  • Zoustar – $7.50 (Bet 1.25u each way, 12.63u collect)
  • Vivid – $7.20 (Bet 1.5u win, 10.8u collect)
  • Rudy – $7 (Bet 2u win, 14u collect)
  • Radiant Angel – $7 (Bet 1.5u units win, 10.5u collect)
  • Romancing The Stone – $4.40 (Bet 2.8u win, 12.32u collect)
  • Rosehill First Four – $1176 (Bet 1.2u on 100% boxed first four, 11.76u collect)
  • Se Sauver $21, Sense & Reason $17, Rastro $14.30, Berna $14, Bernabeu $13, Manu Manu $11.90 etc
  • Also struck $1501 (50%) and $754 (100%) trifectas
  • 3 winners from 3 races on Sat Apr 6 ($7.10, $7 and $4)
  • 5 winners from 5 races at Hawkesbury on Thu Apr 11
  • 5 winners from 5 races at Hawkesbury again on Sun Jul 21 ($7.60, $5.10, $4, $3.60, $2.60)
  • 6 winning bets from 7 betting races on Sat Jul 27
  • 3 winners from 4 betting races at Hawkesbury on Sat Aug 31
  • 5 winners from 6 betting races on Sat Sep 21
  • 7 winners from 10 betting races Sat Oct 5
  • 13 winning weekends out of 14 between 6 July and 6 October

Monthly Results

March*: 6.52 units LOSS

April: 41.65 units WIN

May: 29.39 units WIN

June: 11.49 units LOSS

July: 43.28 units WIN

August: 14.68 units WIN

September: 20.90 units WIN

October: 31.58 units WIN

November: 46.45 units WIN

December: 10.34 units WIN

*Service commenced late February so March includes 1 week of February

• 8 winning months out of 10 (80% winning months)
• The average losing month was 9.01 units
• The average winning month was 29.78 units

Weekly Results

46 betting weeks

32 profitable weeks (70%)
Average profit 9.09 units

14 unprofitable weeks (30%)
Average loss 4.97 units

  •  Biggest single loss: 11.87 units in one week (this was however after 45.46 units profit in the previous 4 weeks)
  •  Biggest losing streak: 3 losing weeks in a row: 20.31 units (followed by 47.8 units profit in the next 5 weeks)
  • Biggest single win: 28.37 units in one week
  • Biggest winning streak: 8 winning weeks in a row: 78.73 units

Had a run of 13 winnings weekends out of 14 between 6 Jul & 6 Oct
Total of 112 units profit over the 14 weekends
Average profit of 8 units per weekend
The 1 losing weekend was a loss of 0.22 units.

Top 10 Betting Tracks

Track Profit Stake POT %
Hawkesbury 37.72 97.59 38.65%
Doomben 26.72 53.35 50.07%
Rosehill 25.63 46.63 54.96%
Canterbury 25.28 99.28 25.46%
Wyong 15.46 76.76 20.13%
Flemington 14.55 11.20 129.91%
Bathurst 13.73 18.50 74.19%
Kensington 13.54 39.65 34.16%
Caulfield 13.30 9.75 136.43%
Newcastle 12.99 132.42 9.81%

Hawkesbury has certainly been a fantastic track for us. At Hawkesbury we invested in 5 betting races for 5 winners not once but twice, on Thu Apr 11 and then again on Sun July 21!

We bet at 78 different tracks around Australia. Interesting that in our top 10 are 3 of the top 5 tracks in Sydney: Rosehill, Canterbury and Kensington (with Randwick and Warwick Farm also profitable). The 2 main city tracks in Melbourne (Flemington and Caulfield), and 1 of the 2 main city tracks in QLD (Doomben). The 3 main NSW provincial circuits (Hawkesbury, Newcastle and Wyong) also featured, and only 1 country track (Bathurst).

Betting by State

State Profit Stake POT %
NSW 123.3 959.3 12.9%
QLD 45.8 141.4 32.4%
VIC 32.1 136.0 23.6%
SA 11.7 9.5 122.8%
NT 4.7 1.0 470.0%
ACT 2.0 20.6 9.9%
WA 1.9 2.5 76.0%

Pleasingly all 7 states where we invested in were profitable. NSW generated the most profit as this is where we bet predominantly, but QLD and VIC were also highly profitable with outstanding POT percentages. Although I only review trials in NSW, QLD and VIC, whenever our trial blackbookers travelled interstate or switched stables they were also successful, with SA, NT, ACT and WA all showing profits at high POT percentages.

Betting by State by Metro / Non Metro

State Metro / Non Metro? Profit Stake POT%
NSW Metropolitan 68.3 299.6 22.8%
NSW Non Metropolitan 55.0 659.8 8.3%
VIC Metropolitan 28.9 32.2 90.0%
QLD Non Metropolitan 25.0 52.3 47.9%
QLD Metropolitan 20.7 89.1 23.3%
SA Metropolitan 7.7 7.5 102.3%
NT Non Metropolitan 4.7 1.0 470.0%
SA Non Metropolitan 4.0 2.0 200.0%
VIC Non Metropolitan 3.1 103.8 3.0%
ACT Non Metropolitan 2.0 20.6 9.9%
WA Non Metropolitan 1.9 2.5 76.0%

Once again even splitting by metropolitan (city) and non metropolitan (country/provincial) races we were still profitable in every category in every state.

Metropolitan v Non Metropolitan

Metro / Non-Metro? Profit Stake POT%
Metropolitan 125.6 428.31 29.3%
Non Metropolitan 95.81 841.91 11.4%

This shows we earned slightly more profit on City racing, but Provincial and Country racing combined were still strongly profitable. What this does show however is that following the strong triallers who end up racing in the city are more reliable than the ones racing at provincial level, which has much to do with the abilities of the trainers to get the best out of their handy horses. It may also have something to do with the fact that betting in the city is more competitive hence we get better dividends, and perhaps even that we as a group have less impact on the market in city races than in the smaller provincial and country circuits.

Bet type

Bet Type Profit Stake POT%
Win 169.3 1014.2 16.7%
Place 28.5 10.6 269.0%
Each Way 12.8 178.3 7.2%
Exotics 28.5 10.6 269.0%

Win betting was certainly our bread and butter, with 80% of our betting devoted to this. Pleasingly however our place, each way and exotic betting were all also highly profitable.

Favourite Trial Spy horses
(Qualifier: Must have won more than one race for us this year and over 8 units profit)

Horse Profit Stake POT%
Zoustar 33.32 8.70 383.00% 4 wins from 5 bets
Estonian Princess 23.83 4.20 567.26% 2 winning place bets from 5 bets
Rudy 14.03 10.75 130.47% 3 wins from 7 bets
General Exhibit 11.62 8.95 129.78% 2 wins from 5 bets
Senta Desert 10.86 3.10 350.32% 2 wins from 3 bets
Photon Willie 8.96 2.75 325.82% 2 wins from 2 bets
Charge Missile 8.00 1.50 533.33% 2 wins from 2 bets

Confidence

Confidence Profit Stake POT%
High 34.2 377.5 9.0%
Medium 187.3 892.8 21.0%

Betting Day

Day Profit Stake POT%
Mon (8.7) 52.70 (16.5%)
Tue 8.7 113.69 7.6%
Wed 26.5 217.08 12.2%
Thu 62.0 231.38 26.8%
Fri 10.1 121.99 8.3%
Sat 97.3 395.95 24.6%
Sun 25.5 137.43 18.6%

The only unprofitable day was Monday, and combined with Tuesday the start of the week was breakeven.

The most profitable days were clearly Saturday and Thursday, with Wednesday and Sunday also highly profitable.

Weekend v Weekday

Day Profit Stake POT%
Weekday 98.6 736.8 13.4%
Weekend 122.8 533.4 23.0%

Weekends were slightly more profitable than weekdays, and did have a substantially higher POT%.

Average win bets

Average win bet on winner: 1.39u (Average win dividend $4.73)
Average win bet on placegetter: 1.10u
Average win bet on unplaced: 0.96u

Pleasingly we are staking more on winners than losers

Profit based on units invested per selection (win only bets)

Units Invested Race P/L Staking POT%
2.70 – 3.10 6.3 42.3 15.0%
2.50 (26.1) 65.0 (40.2%)
2.09 – 2.30 13.3 26.6 49.9%
2.00 11.0 126.0 8.7%
1.60 – 1.90 16.7 124.0 13.4%
1.50 56.6 118.5 47.8%
1.30 – 1.40 0.6 33.5 1.9%
1.25 20.7 90.0 23.0%
1.05 – 1.20 (4.7) 33.8 (13.8%)
1.00 78.3 169.0 46.3%
0.55 – 0.90 (1.2) 79.1 (1.5%)
0.50 2.8 78.5 3.5%
0.15 – 0.45 (4.9) 28.0 (17.6%)
169.3 1,014.2 16.7%

 

Units Race P/L Staking POT%
2.70 – 3.10 6.3 42.3 15.0%
2.09 – 2.50 (12.8) 91.6 (14.0%)
1.60 – 2.00 27.7 250.0 11.1%
1.05 – 1.50 73.3 275.8 26.6%
0.55 – 1.00 77.1 248.1 31.1%
0.00 – 0.50 (2.2) 106.5 (2.0%)
169.3 1,014.2 16.7%

 

Units Race P/L Staking POT%
2.09 – 3.10 (6.5) 133.9 (4.9%)
1.05 – 2.00 100.9 525.7 19.2%
0.15 – 1.00 74.9 354.6 21.1%
169.3 1,014.2 16.7%

This is very interesting. What the bottom summary is showing is that when we stake anything above 2 units (which generally means we are backing horses at odds of under $2.50), we are actually making a slight loss. We are generally making all of our profits backing horses from $2.50 to $23. As a result I will be staking less and placing less bets on the runners that are very short odds (particularly those at odds on). Clearly the greatest edge is with runners that aren’t heavily backed favourites and aren’t well identified by the general public.

Summary

I hope this summary has been of interest to you.

I will be doing some data mining of the best and worst performed horses we backed last year to determine the type of trial performances that produced great results, as well as the type of trial performances that appeared strong but resulted in horses not worth following. In addition I will also be reviewing particularly for maidens at which stage of a maiden’s preparation and race career they are best worth following. I believe this work, combined with the insights above will allow us to build on the successes of 2013 and hopefully lead to an even better 2014.

If you have any queries or thoughts feel free to e-mail me at dean@championpicks.com.au.

Also if you’re on twitter please follow me @DeanTrialSpy

More information on the Trial Spy service is available here.

Download 2013 Trial Spy Results Sheet

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