Well the 2013 year has come and gone, and so has the first year of Trial Spy with Champion Picks.
It was a fantastic year and I just want to say a big thank you to all of you for your loyal following. I’ve enjoyed corresponding with many of you via e-mail, and have loved hearing of your successes.
The service started on February 22. It took until February 24 for the first official Trial Spy winner, but it was a great one with Templestone getting home at $23.
In just over 10 months of operation we achieved the following:
- 221.41 units profit ($22,141 profit betting $100 per unit)
- A Return on Investment (ROI) of 221% on our 100 unit bank
- Profit on Turnover (POT%) figure was 17.43% which when competitor benchmarked is industry leading
- 764 betting races for 302 winners at a winning race strike rate of 39.53%.
Some highlights have included:
- Templestone – $23 (Bet 0.5 units win, 11.5 unit collect)
- Magna Amica – $21 (Bet 0.5u win, 10.5u collect)
- Federica – $19.20 (Bet 0.5u win, 9.6u collect)
- Maroon Bay – $18.90 (Bet 0.35u win, 6.62u collect)
- Zoustar – $17 (Golden Rose Futures Bet – backed 16 August, won on 14 September- 1u win for a 17u collect)
- Signoret – $11.30 (Bet 1u win, 11.3u collect)
- Smiles For Layla – $10.40 (Bet 1.5u win, 15.6u collect)
- General Exhibit – $7.50 (Bet 1.5u each way, 15.57u collect)
- Zoustar – $7.50 (Bet 1.25u each way, 12.63u collect)
- Vivid – $7.20 (Bet 1.5u win, 10.8u collect)
- Rudy – $7 (Bet 2u win, 14u collect)
- Radiant Angel – $7 (Bet 1.5u units win, 10.5u collect)
- Romancing The Stone – $4.40 (Bet 2.8u win, 12.32u collect)
- Rosehill First Four – $1176 (Bet 1.2u on 100% boxed first four, 11.76u collect)
- Se Sauver $21, Sense & Reason $17, Rastro $14.30, Berna $14, Bernabeu $13, Manu Manu $11.90 etc
- Also struck $1501 (50%) and $754 (100%) trifectas
- 3 winners from 3 races on Sat Apr 6 ($7.10, $7 and $4)
- 5 winners from 5 races at Hawkesbury on Thu Apr 11
- 5 winners from 5 races at Hawkesbury again on Sun Jul 21 ($7.60, $5.10, $4, $3.60, $2.60)
- 6 winning bets from 7 betting races on Sat Jul 27
- 3 winners from 4 betting races at Hawkesbury on Sat Aug 31
- 5 winners from 6 betting races on Sat Sep 21
- 7 winners from 10 betting races Sat Oct 5
- 13 winning weekends out of 14 between 6 July and 6 October
March*: 6.52 units LOSS
April: 41.65 units WIN
May: 29.39 units WIN
June: 11.49 units LOSS
July: 43.28 units WIN
August: 14.68 units WIN
September: 20.90 units WIN
October: 31.58 units WIN
November: 46.45 units WIN
December: 10.34 units WIN
*Service commenced late February so March includes 1 week of February
• 8 winning months out of 10 (80% winning months)
• The average losing month was 9.01 units
• The average winning month was 29.78 units
46 betting weeks
32 profitable weeks (70%)
Average profit 9.09 units
14 unprofitable weeks (30%)
Average loss 4.97 units
- Biggest single loss: 11.87 units in one week (this was however after 45.46 units profit in the previous 4 weeks)
- Biggest losing streak: 3 losing weeks in a row: 20.31 units (followed by 47.8 units profit in the next 5 weeks)
- Biggest single win: 28.37 units in one week
- Biggest winning streak: 8 winning weeks in a row: 78.73 units
Had a run of 13 winnings weekends out of 14 between 6 Jul & 6 Oct
Total of 112 units profit over the 14 weekends
Average profit of 8 units per weekend
The 1 losing weekend was a loss of 0.22 units.
Top 10 Betting Tracks
Hawkesbury has certainly been a fantastic track for us. At Hawkesbury we invested in 5 betting races for 5 winners not once but twice, on Thu Apr 11 and then again on Sun July 21!
We bet at 78 different tracks around Australia. Interesting that in our top 10 are 3 of the top 5 tracks in Sydney: Rosehill, Canterbury and Kensington (with Randwick and Warwick Farm also profitable). The 2 main city tracks in Melbourne (Flemington and Caulfield), and 1 of the 2 main city tracks in QLD (Doomben). The 3 main NSW provincial circuits (Hawkesbury, Newcastle and Wyong) also featured, and only 1 country track (Bathurst).
Betting by State
Pleasingly all 7 states where we invested in were profitable. NSW generated the most profit as this is where we bet predominantly, but QLD and VIC were also highly profitable with outstanding POT percentages. Although I only review trials in NSW, QLD and VIC, whenever our trial blackbookers travelled interstate or switched stables they were also successful, with SA, NT, ACT and WA all showing profits at high POT percentages.
Betting by State by Metro / Non Metro
|State||Metro / Non Metro?||Profit||Stake||POT%|
Once again even splitting by metropolitan (city) and non metropolitan (country/provincial) races we were still profitable in every category in every state.
Metropolitan v Non Metropolitan
|Metro / Non-Metro?||Profit||Stake||POT%|
This shows we earned slightly more profit on City racing, but Provincial and Country racing combined were still strongly profitable. What this does show however is that following the strong triallers who end up racing in the city are more reliable than the ones racing at provincial level, which has much to do with the abilities of the trainers to get the best out of their handy horses. It may also have something to do with the fact that betting in the city is more competitive hence we get better dividends, and perhaps even that we as a group have less impact on the market in city races than in the smaller provincial and country circuits.
Win betting was certainly our bread and butter, with 80% of our betting devoted to this. Pleasingly however our place, each way and exotic betting were all also highly profitable.
Favourite Trial Spy horses
(Qualifier: Must have won more than one race for us this year and over 8 units profit)
|Zoustar||33.32||8.70||383.00%||4 wins from 5 bets|
|Estonian Princess||23.83||4.20||567.26%||2 winning place bets from 5 bets|
|Rudy||14.03||10.75||130.47%||3 wins from 7 bets|
|General Exhibit||11.62||8.95||129.78%||2 wins from 5 bets|
|Senta Desert||10.86||3.10||350.32%||2 wins from 3 bets|
|Photon Willie||8.96||2.75||325.82%||2 wins from 2 bets|
|Charge Missile||8.00||1.50||533.33%||2 wins from 2 bets|
The only unprofitable day was Monday, and combined with Tuesday the start of the week was breakeven.
The most profitable days were clearly Saturday and Thursday, with Wednesday and Sunday also highly profitable.
Weekend v Weekday
Weekends were slightly more profitable than weekdays, and did have a substantially higher POT%.
Average win bets
Average win bet on winner: 1.39u (Average win dividend $4.73)
Average win bet on placegetter: 1.10u
Average win bet on unplaced: 0.96u
Pleasingly we are staking more on winners than losers
Profit based on units invested per selection (win only bets)
|Units Invested||Race P/L||Staking||POT%|
|2.70 – 3.10||6.3||42.3||15.0%|
|2.09 – 2.30||13.3||26.6||49.9%|
|1.60 – 1.90||16.7||124.0||13.4%|
|1.30 – 1.40||0.6||33.5||1.9%|
|1.05 – 1.20||(4.7)||33.8||(13.8%)|
|0.55 – 0.90||(1.2)||79.1||(1.5%)|
|0.15 – 0.45||(4.9)||28.0||(17.6%)|
|2.70 – 3.10||6.3||42.3||15.0%|
|2.09 – 2.50||(12.8)||91.6||(14.0%)|
|1.60 – 2.00||27.7||250.0||11.1%|
|1.05 – 1.50||73.3||275.8||26.6%|
|0.55 – 1.00||77.1||248.1||31.1%|
|0.00 – 0.50||(2.2)||106.5||(2.0%)|
|2.09 – 3.10||(6.5)||133.9||(4.9%)|
|1.05 – 2.00||100.9||525.7||19.2%|
|0.15 – 1.00||74.9||354.6||21.1%|
This is very interesting. What the bottom summary is showing is that when we stake anything above 2 units (which generally means we are backing horses at odds of under $2.50), we are actually making a slight loss. We are generally making all of our profits backing horses from $2.50 to $23. As a result I will be staking less and placing less bets on the runners that are very short odds (particularly those at odds on). Clearly the greatest edge is with runners that aren’t heavily backed favourites and aren’t well identified by the general public.
I hope this summary has been of interest to you.
I will be doing some data mining of the best and worst performed horses we backed last year to determine the type of trial performances that produced great results, as well as the type of trial performances that appeared strong but resulted in horses not worth following. In addition I will also be reviewing particularly for maidens at which stage of a maiden’s preparation and race career they are best worth following. I believe this work, combined with the insights above will allow us to build on the successes of 2013 and hopefully lead to an even better 2014.
If you have any queries or thoughts feel free to e-mail me at email@example.com.
Also if you’re on twitter please follow me @DeanTrialSpy
More information on the Trial Spy service is available here.