Last week we looked at the best (and worst) jockeys in terms of punting returns over the last three months
Today the focus switches to trainers and once again our measuring stick is Profit on Turnover since that is far more relevant to punters than simply winning strike rates. Just because a trainer has a 20% winning strike-rate does not mean they have achieved better returns for punters than a stable with a 15% strike-rate.
Although I must stress that the results below are more a starting point for deeper analysis rather than anything to base your betting on. Stats are just one small piece of the pie and we are dealing with very small sample sizes for this research. Smart betting decisions are based on compiling, assessing and gaining insight from a broad range of data.
Firstly, the profitability of NSW trainers in the period December 2012 to February 2013 inclusive. We use best tote dividends and proportionate staking so the all horses/all trainers benchmark is -10% Profit on Turnover.
| Trainer | Runners | Wins | Win % | POT |
| Ms G Markwell | 97 | 15 | 15 | 58.3 |
| J Pride | 85 | 18 | 21 | 52.8 |
| T Sutherland | 111 | 11 | 9 | 40.2 |
| R J Price | 72 | 8 | 11 | 24.9 |
| L J Griffith | 88 | 12 | 13 | 17.7 |
| K Lees | 130 | 26 | 20 | 15.5 |
| N Olive | 73 | 9 | 12 | 11.8 |
| J B Cummings | 81 | 12 | 14 | 6.6 |
| Bjorn Baker | 93 | 18 | 19 | -0.7 |
| B D Bellamy | 94 | 9 | 9 | -2.3 |
| D P Smith | 76 | 10 | 13 | -8.1 |
| G Portelli | 70 | 7 | 10 | -8.9 |
| P Snowden | 218 | 34 | 15 | -10.7 |
| A J Cummings | 111 | 10 | 9 | -13.6 |
| D Payne | 82 | 9 | 10 | -13.9 |
| C Waller | 316 | 46 | 14 | -15.6 |
| J O’Shea | 93 | 16 | 17 | -15.9 |
| G Ryan | 101 | 11 | 10 | -22.5 |
| G H Walter | 157 | 17 | 10 | -32.5 |
| G D Yorke | 79 | 5 | 6 | -36.5 |
| Ms G Waterhouse | 151 | 20 | 13 | -39.7 |
| P M Perry | 139 | 10 | 7 | -41.3 |
| C E Conners | 84 | 7 | 8 | -42 |
| All trainers | 10 | -10 |
(Minimum 70 runners metro/country/provincial)
Gwenda Markwell heads the list but Joe Pride wasn’t far behind and had better than a winner every five runners. Kris Lees’ recent run is well above his overall career record, whilst the one and only Bart Cummings is still doing well.
The worst stables from a punter’s perspective were the Conners, Perry and Waterhouse yards. The market has dramatically over rated their runners during the last 3 months with all recording a rate of return around four times worse than the average.
Now let’s look at their Victorian counterparts:
| Trainer | Runners | Wins | Win % | POT |
| Anthony Freedman | 79 | 19 | 24 | 24 |
| M W & J Hawkes | 74 | 19 | 25 | 23 |
| L Oliver | 95 | 21 | 22 | 19 |
| M Kent | 91 | 22 | 24 | 16 |
| C & Cindy Alderson | 93 | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| R E Laing | 83 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| P G Carey | 75 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| B O Cox | 83 | 13 | 15 | 4 |
| M G Price | 169 | 37 | 21 | 4 |
| P Moody | 235 | 53 | 22 | -1 |
| J Warren | 92 | 13 | 14 | -3 |
| M Ellerton & S Zahra | 132 | 19 | 14 | -3 |
| R D Griffiths | 231 | 40 | 17 | -4 |
| G E Eurell | 109 | 16 | 14 | -8 |
| D O’Sullivan | 87 | 9 | 10 | -15 |
| T & Karina O’Sul | 89 | 8 | 8 | -16 |
| D O’Brien | 104 | 15 | 14 | -17 |
| D Hayes | 280 | 36 | 12 | -20 |
| D K Weir | 290 | 46 | 15 | -20 |
| M D Moroney | 114 | 13 | 11 | -21 |
| P Snowden | 103 | 17 | 16 | -24 |
| R W Smerdon | 129 | 16 | 12 | -27 |
| B & S Wilde | 71 | 5 | 7 | -52 |
| All trainers | 11 | -10 |
In contrast to the last few years of Lee Freedman’s reign, his brother Anthony has been well and truly under estimated by punters. Hawkes is another hall of fame name and their family operation has been achieving excellent results. Both of those stables achieved basically a winner every four runners.
Bill and Symon Wilde suffered through a very tough period and some high profile trainers underperformed relative to market expectations.
Trainers form can fluctuate throughout the year and the market can correct itself quite quickly. So we will report back on a regular basis to take a fresh look at the hottest trainers and jockeys.
Good luck
David Duffield
