Trainers: Hot or not?

by Admin on March 15, 2013

Last week we looked at the best (and worst) jockeys in terms of punting returns over the last three months

Today the focus switches to trainers and once again our measuring stick is Profit on Turnover since that is far more relevant to punters than simply winning strike rates. Just because a trainer has a 20% winning strike-rate does not mean they have achieved better returns for punters than a stable with a 15% strike-rate.

Although I must stress that the results below are more a starting point for deeper analysis rather than anything to base your betting on. Stats are just one small piece of the pie and we are dealing with very small sample sizes for this research. Smart betting decisions are based on compiling, assessing and gaining insight from a broad range of data.

Firstly, the profitability of NSW trainers in the period December 2012 to February 2013 inclusive. We use best tote dividends and proportionate staking so the all horses/all trainers benchmark is -10% Profit on Turnover.

Trainer        Runners        Wins        Win %        POT
Ms G Markwell        97        15        15        58.3
J Pride        85        18        21        52.8
T Sutherland        111        11        9        40.2
R J Price        72        8        11        24.9
L J Griffith        88        12        13        17.7
K Lees        130        26        20        15.5
N Olive        73        9        12        11.8
J B Cummings        81        12        14        6.6
Bjorn Baker        93        18        19        -0.7
B D Bellamy        94        9        9        -2.3
D P Smith        76        10        13        -8.1
G Portelli        70        7        10        -8.9
P Snowden        218        34        15        -10.7
A J Cummings        111        10        9        -13.6
D Payne        82        9        10        -13.9
C Waller        316        46        14        -15.6
J O’Shea        93        16        17        -15.9
G Ryan        101        11        10        -22.5
G H Walter        157        17        10        -32.5
G D Yorke        79        5        6        -36.5
Ms G Waterhouse        151        20        13        -39.7
P M Perry        139        10        7        -41.3
C E Conners        84        7        8        -42
All trainers        10        -10

(Minimum 70 runners metro/country/provincial)

Gwenda Markwell heads the list but Joe Pride wasn’t far behind and had better than a winner every five runners. Kris Lees’ recent run is well above his overall career record, whilst the one and only Bart Cummings is still doing well.

The worst stables from a punter’s perspective were the Conners, Perry and Waterhouse yards. The market has dramatically over rated their runners during the last 3 months with all recording a rate of return around four times worse than the average.

Now let’s look at their Victorian counterparts:

Trainer        Runners        Wins        Win %        POT
Anthony Freedman        79        19        24        24
M W & J Hawkes        74        19        25        23
L Oliver        95        21        22        19
M Kent        91        22        24        16
C & Cindy Alderson        93        12        12        7
R E Laing        83        8        9        7
P G Carey        75        11        14        7
B O Cox        83        13        15        4
M G Price        169        37        21        4
P Moody        235        53        22        -1
J Warren        92        13        14        -3
M Ellerton & S Zahra        132        19        14        -3
R D Griffiths        231        40        17        -4
G E Eurell        109        16        14        -8
D O’Sullivan        87        9        10        -15
T & Karina O’Sul        89        8        8        -16
D O’Brien        104        15        14        -17
D Hayes        280        36        12        -20
D K Weir        290        46        15        -20
M D Moroney        114        13        11        -21
P Snowden        103        17        16        -24
R W Smerdon        129        16        12        -27
B & S Wilde        71        5        7        -52
All trainers        11        -10

In contrast to the last few years of Lee Freedman’s reign, his brother Anthony has been well and truly under estimated by punters. Hawkes is another hall of fame name and their family operation has been achieving excellent results. Both of those stables achieved basically a winner every four runners.

Bill and Symon Wilde suffered through a very tough period and some high profile trainers underperformed relative to market expectations.

Trainers form can fluctuate throughout the year and the market can correct itself quite quickly. So we will report back on a regular basis to take a fresh look at the hottest trainers and jockeys.

Good luck
David Duffield

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