Trainer Peter Snowden has the bookies (and sentimental) favourite for the last Group 1 of the season this Saturday.
But punters considering backing the ultra-consistent Beaded in the Winter Stakes will have to take into account the swap of Kerrin McEvoy for Corey Brown. McEvoy may be Darley’s number-one hoop but he cops plenty of criticism from many different quarters of the racing industry and much of that is warranted, while some is a little over the top.
So today I wanted to look purely at the facts to see what lessons punters can learn from the McEvoy/Snowden (or should that be McEvoy/Shiekh) alliance.
There are four jockeys who have had at least 200 rides for Snowden and the record for each jockey is below, looking at both proportionate and level stakes.
Target betting (aka proportionate staking) involves betting to return the same amount regardless of the odds of the horse. In laymans terms, you outlay more on fancied horses and less on longshots.
Level stakes (aka flat betting) is simply outlaying the same amount on every selection, regardless of price.
The following charts compare Kerrin McEvoy, Josh Parr, Mark Zahra and Corey Brown:
Those results are damning to say the least. Whichever way you look at it, the other three jockeys with 200+ Snowden rides all have much better winning percentages and profit figures.
Whether McEvoy is an above average rider or not is a matter of opinion and every punter has plenty of those. But what can’t be refuted is that his overall record from a punter’s perspective is poor in relative and absolute terms.
Snowden/McEvoy runners lose 20% on turnover.
Snowden/non-McEvoy runners lose 5%.
The argument ends right there.
Good punting
David Duffield
www.ChampionPicks.com.au
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Don’t understand the bash McEvoy bandwagon. One thing I have noticed about a lot of the Sheik’s runners, particularly those from certain stallions, is they are precocious winners, off on-pace runs early, then fairly quickly they need to get midfield-back in their races and their win ratios drop accordingly, whoever is in the saddle. They are also, often, wildly overbet and McEvoy, presumably, is the dominant loser from that in these figures.
I’m big on stats myself but they have to have a bit of context to be worth anything.
If the ones you have chosen to publish are valid then, equally, they tell us that Josh Parr is between two and four times as good a rider as Corey Brown, and that Mark Zahra is between two and three times as effective as Brown.
That seems like horse manure to me and if you don’t accept that then you can’t accept the McEvoy conclusion because they are all taken from exactly the same set of figures.
Jim
Hi Jim. You mentioned that you’re big on stats, well on what basis other than profit on turnover can we judge a jockey?
It’s not Kerrin’s fault that his mounts are seriously overbet, but I don’t know how you can dismiss the stats altogether.
And it isn’t a matter of Parr being two and four times as good a rider as Brown, it is more an indication that certain jockeys are overbet (or underbet) and punters can gain an edge at times.
I think I would like to see the stats for runners that start under $10 or even $5. As McEvoy is first choice rider he may well ride a lot of the “educational” runs on those runners that have not yet established their credentials. It would also tell us if he was overbet on the Sheik’s horses.
Hey Nick, the proportionate staking already takes into account the odds
David
Can you repost the charts please?
Thanks
Jon