There is always a lot of conjecture amongst racing fans discussing exactly who are the best trainers in Australia today. However using unfiltered statistics such as number of wins (in isolation) is not a true indication of a trainer’s ability.
To counter that, we have compiled what we believe to be a fair statistical analysis of the premiership leading trainers this racing season and for a better measure of success we have only looked at horses starting at 5/1 or less. The reason we have done this is because it’s unfair to gauge a trainer’s performance on horses that are unsuited due to the track condition, distance, stage of preparation or any other factor. So we have concentrated on horse’s who were in the market and therefore expected to perform well.
Another key statistic we looked at was the ability of a trainer to maintain a horse’s winning performance. That is being able to back a horse up from a win and being able to win against next start.
Admittedly there are all sorts of ways to use statistics but we believe these measures to be a strong guide to the trainers’ relative success. We do acknowledge that there are other parameters which could be used and that may show differing results. Some trainers who don’t have access to as many owners/horses may have figures superior to the leading premiership trainers we have analysed here and we will certainly look at some of those lower profile trainers in coming weeks.
Today’s statistics and analysis look at the leading Sydney trainers and our next article will focus on Melbourne.
The standout performance of Gai Waterhouse deserves mentioning and on the other side of the coin there were some disturbing stats to emerge from our analysis:
- Joe Pride: 2nd up 6/68 = 8.8 %
- Kris Lees: Poor last start winners at next start record
- Gerald Ryan: Fillies 7/105 winners = 7 %
- Chris Waller: 1st up win 9%, Rosehill 13%, Mares 3%, Fillies 9 %
- Kevin Moses: Low overall strike-rate and last start winners at next start just 12%
- Bart Cummings: At 1900m or further strike-rate is 25.49%, 1st up strike-rate just 7%.
- Gary Portelli: Mares winning record of only 5.55 %
- Anthony Cummings: Last start winners at next start 5%, Mares strike-rate 8%
- Graeme Rogerson: Poor strike-rate of under 19%.
- David Payne: Last start winners at next start only 7.27 %
- Clarry Conners: Ordinary numbers across the board
We appreciate your feedback on our blog and also welcome suggestions on trainers you would like us to take a closer look at.
Post your comments now.
{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
Real eye opening stuff! This sort of info can only be beneficial to all punters. Brilliant analysis Championpicks. Please keep these stats coming.
Cheers,
Wayne.
This is fantastic. I love following good trainers and this analysis is most helpful. A couple of questions – over what length of time did you compile this data? And is it possible at a later date to analyse Qld trainers?
Thanks for that Jim.
The stats are for this current racing year (August 1st to date) and I’ll ask Ed to do similar analysis for Brisbane.
Cheers
David
Nice bit of work, but these figures are not statistically significant. They are racing trends that cannot be relied upon to be consistent in a pure statistical sense.
Hi Taj
We’re not saying that you should follows these stats blindly and just start laying any Joe Pride 2nd upper, or Kris Lees last start winner, or ….
The analysis was more about being a good topic of discussion and encouraging people to take a more in-depth look at the stats other than just the premiership battle.
Good luck
David
No surprises to see Gai still on top. She has been the victim of the usual Aussie cutting the Tall Poppy just because she is not the leader on the Premiership table.
Regardless, she still is the one producing the best figures and will forever and a day.Choose to drop off her at your peril if you will.
Great information guys. Would love to see more of it and with profit/loss included. Love your service. Keep up the good work.
the information here is nearly 2 years old is there a chance you can come up with something more recent
Here you go Clark:
http://www.championpicks.com.au/blog/horse-racing-tips/the-punting-premiership-nsw/