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Exciting time to bet
Scott Woodward from ChampionProfits.com tipped members the Geelong and Manly double last year at 61.00. It is that time of the year again and Scott discusses his thoughts.
This is my most exciting time of the year from an investment perspective.
We are nearing the close of the home and away seasons for the AFL and NRL and we should have a firm handle of where most teams sit and importantly know if they have got what it takes to go to the next step.
We move into a new competition next week with the finals beginning.
I have always considered the characteristics of a team to be successful during the finals series is fundamentally different to the H&A, and then to actually go on and win a Grand Final is different again not only for a team, but especially a coach. Some coaches can get into the big one but cannot win it, unlike the great Wayne Bennett who is undefeated in six Grand Finals.
Normally, Championprofits.com members would already have their Futures investments on and while we have signalled our intensions all year, the fact is, the teams that we really liked were never “over the odds” so we have not included them in a Staking Plan.
The Webinar that we conducted prior to the season gave out three tips from our AFL pro punter “Terry” who said that he liked Hawthorn at 8.00 to win the Flag, Freo to make the eight and St. Kilda to miss the eight. The Hawks are now 1.30 to be minor premiers and the other two bets are home. Had you coupled Terry’s Hawks tip up with the Bulldogs in a double you would have got 151.0 with Sportingbet and 101.0 with Souths.
I also gave my ratings for the NRL season and the teams that were “over the odds” were the Bulldogs, Souths, Cowboys and the Knights. The Storm and Manly were not value but because the other teams (except the Knights) all firmed up, you had plenty of value and could easily include them in a Hawks double later.
I have been very surprised at how well the Bulldogs have gone, but the fact is they were value prior the round 1 and that should always be our initial thinking. We have to match value with reality and somehow strike a winning mix.
My opinion on Manly has not changed in two years. I would back them to beat any team on a neutral ground if they have their best 13 available. I believe they have a better balanced spine than the Storm, but have a much better forward pack and superior on both sides of the park. They are the complete side and I believe Dally Cherry-Evans is the best number 7 in the world.
My friend Terry has a similar opinion of Hawthorn.
He was blown away how they came back from the dead to defeat a strong Swans team last Saturday: “They had so much against them in that game and I don’t think any team can touch them at the bigger MCG with a fitter Buddy and Cyril (Riolo) back,” Terry said.
The real value for members may be in the Toyota Cup. The rules are different and the form is not well disclosed so we have an advantage and it will certainly be part of our Plans over the next month.