NSW Profitability Premierships: Season 2012/13

by Admin on August 23, 2013

The jockeys and trainers premierships are highly publicised and justifiably celebrated, but who achieves the best (and worst) returns from a punter’s perspective?

Total wins and even winning strike-rates are just one piece of the puzzle, so our assessments focus on Profit on Turnover using a proportionate staking (aka target betting) approach. That way results are ‘smoothed’ relative to market expectations instead of being skewed by longshot results.

Of course the standard disclaimer applies. It is not possible to simply bet blind and make money. The results below are intended as merely a starting point for more in-depth analysis. for deeper analysis.

So let’s take a look at the top 10 in the Sydney Metro Jockey’s Premiership. The final two columns are Profit on Turnover for this season and then last season. The overall benchmark for all runners is around -8% Profit on Turnover.

Jockey Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
Nash Rawiller 77 369 21% -2 14
Hugh Bowman 72.5 457 16% -8 2
Glyn Schofield 60 470 13% 4 2
Tommy Berry 55 404 14% 12 -2
Kerrin McEvoy 52.5 360 15% 7 -2
Christian Reith 52 467 11% -16 -17
Peter Robl 51 449 11% -13 6
Jason Collett 45 381 12% -1 N/A
Corey Brown 43 362 12% -19 -26
Blake Shinn 42 351 12% 0 1

Positives:
Nash Rawiller – above the benchmark again although a drop-off on last season
Glyn Schofield – ‘blind’ profit two straight years is a great achievement
Tommy Berry – the standout metro performer
Kerrin McEvoy – very good season for a much maligned hoop
Blake Shinn – another good season just like 2011/12

Negatives:
Christian Reith and Corey Brown – terrible returns for their followers
Peter Robl – went from under-rated metro jock to over-rated in one season

Now we will include all NSW rides (Metro, Provincial and Country):

Jockey Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
Greg Ryan 153 799 19% -4 -4
Robert Thompson 127 729 17% 3 -4
Jeff Penza 123 1164 11% -11 -12
Christian Reith 114.5 789 15% -2 -15
Hugh Bowman 111.5 638 17% -4 2
Nash Rawiller 110 475 23% -2 12
Peter Robl 109 796 14% 0 11
Blake Shinn 97 641 15% -6 0
Grant Buckley 96 1073 9% -18 -18
Glyn Schofield 87 575 15% 13 1

Positives:
Glyn Schofield – still very much under-rated by the market
Robert Thompson – one of only two of the top 10 who achieved a profit across all runners
Peter Robl and Christian Reith – performed much better away from the metro area

Negatives:
Grant Buckley: consecutive well below par seasons

Let’s switch to the Sydney Metro Trainer’s Premiership:

Trainer Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
Chris Waller 167.5 999 17% 3 -11
Gai Waterhouse 83 459 18% -9 19
Peter Snowden 71.5 488 15% -3 -14
John O’Shea 32 239 13% -29 -6
Joseph Pride 31 242 13% 6 -8
Kris Lees 26 198 13% -11 6
Guy Walter 24 248 10% -6 30
Anthony Cummings 23 284 8% -19 3
M,W & J Hawkes 22 170 13% -8 14
Gerald Ryan 22 244 9% -3 -9

Positives:
Chris Waller and Joe Pride: very good (and much improved) results

Negatives:
John O’Shea, Kris Lees and Anthony Cummings: all below par and less profitable than the previous season

And now we will include all runners (Metro, Provincial and Country):

Trainer Wins Rides S/R POT % 2013 POT % 2012
Chris Waller 202.5 1289 16% -4 -8
Peter Snowden 139.5 827 17% -2 -17
Gai Waterhouse 134 660 20% -6 10
Kris Lees 106 602 18% 4 -18
Guy Walter 90 616 15% -3 -2
John O’Shea 72 432 17% -11 2
Darren Smith 67 358 19% 18 -4
Luke Griffith 61 465 13% 2 -20
Paul Perry 55 734 7% -23 -34
Joseph Pride 54.5 401 14% -2 -10

Positives:
Kris Lees: his non-metro runners performed well
Darren Smith and Luke Griffith: also made a profit across all runners

Negatives:
Paul Perry: clearly the most over-rated trainer (by the betting market) amongst the top 10

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