Hot or not: jockeys

by David on March 8, 2013

Last month we started what will be a regular review of the recent form of NSW and Victorian jockeys. We assess the profitability of all their rides over the preceding three months to find out which hoops are hot and which are not.

First up are NSW jockeys for the period December 2012 to February 2013 inclusive.

As a benchmark for below or above average performers you can use -10% Profit on Turnover as that is the return you would get for betting on all runners using best tote odds and proportionate stakes (ie. outlaying more on shorter priced horses and less as the odds increase).

Jockey               ……..  Rides…… Wins….. POT
K Nestor 104 21 42.1
K Nisbet 105 10 27.5
P Robl 137 25 25.4
M Dolendo 116 16 24.6
C VanDerWerf 102 18 19.3
R Thompson 149 28 19.2
M Bell 117 17 15.2
M Bennett 119 18 14.6
S Lisnyy 109 11 11.4
JR Collett 123 17 10.8
J Ford 142 21 8.1
M Travers 140 14 5.6
C O’Brien 102 13 4.8
H Bowman 171 35 3.7
Y Ichikawa 113 12 0.7
R Murray 101 10 -2.8
G Schofield 164 21 -4.4
B Shinn 139 21 -4.6
G Ryan 172 28 -6.5
T Berry 213 29 -6.9
G Buckley 246 25 -7.9
C Reith 190 25 -10.2
L Grace 168 19 -10.9
K Sweeney 125 14 -12.2
LG Henry 114 11 -12.2
A Gibbons 154 17 -12.4
R Spokes 134 15 -13.2
B Ward 177 20 -13.5
C Schmidt 112 13 -13.9
N Berry 156 12 -14.4
J Penza 262 29 -16.3
K O’Hara 167 14 -20.4
R Bensley 119 7 -20.9
C Brown 156 20 -21.1
Dale Spriggs 127 13 -21.2
J McDonald 135 20 -22.3
B Avdulla 163 15 -22.4
J Duggan 108 10 -24.6
S Clipperton 142 10 -28.8
MA Cahill 103 10 -37.5
S Thurlow 116 5 -54.7
M Paget 115 7 -55.4
P Graham 138 8 -59.4
B Looker 100 2 -83.3
 All jockeys -10

(Minimum 100 rides metro/country/provincial)

 

The top of the table is dominated by non-metro jockeys with the exception of the everywhere man in Peter Robl. Some very well known hoops were well below the benchmark of 10% loss on turnover. Clearly their popularity currently exceeds their performance.

Now let’s look at their Victorian counterparts:

Jockey                 Rides    Wins     POT
A Mccabe      128      14      25
P Mertens      123      16      23
D Stackhouse      151      25      21
D Lane      170      26      20
N McLean      132      12      17
D Smith      152      26      14
C Newitt      143      25      14
J Duffy      104      11      10
J Fry      154      15      10
J Winks      119      19       9
J Childs      128      13       8
J McNeil      125      13       5
J Kissick      105      20       2
D Yendall      240      43       2
B Rawiller      258      54       1
A Mallyon      131      17      -2
B Melham      157      23      -3
J Beriman      107      10      -4
G Boss      171      32      -8
D Gauci      104       9      -9
V Duric      191      28     -10
LJ Meech      142      22     -10
J Benbow      102       9     -11
J Noonan      168      18     -11
J Todd      132       9     -15
I Gundogdu      134      11     -15
L Currie      137      14     -16
CA Robertson      224      24     -17
D Thornton      201      16     -17
Dean Holland      197      17     -20
L Nolen      167      29     -21
D Dunn      120      13     -21
D Moor      147      13     -23
C Schofield      181      20     -25
SW Arnold      129      15     -29
J Lyon      156       8     -31
JD Hill      194      16     -32
H Coffey      113       8     -33
B Knobel      121       8     -33
T Sadler      115       7     -43
P Moloney      129       8     -47
J Mott      115       8     -52
N Hall      170      11     -54
 All jockeys     -10

 

Some higher profile names at the top of the Vic leaderboard and followers of Craig Newitt have enjoyed good returns recently.

Propping up the bottom of the ladder is Nick Hall. He has had quite a fall from grace in recent times but the market is yet to react sufficiently. The market expectation is that he’s a good enough jockey to bounce back very soon.

Finding value in punting is absolutely essential and having an idea of under-rated and over-rated jockeys can play a small role in helping you achieve this.

Next week we will look at the punting returns for followers of NSW and Victorian trainers.

Good punting
David Duffield

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