Today we look at two more:
(1) Read Stewards reports
My guestimate would be less than 1% of punters take the time to read these reports and that would be
overstating it I would suggest. I can understand “recreational” punters not having the application to
watch the replays I get through each week, but a good shortcut or “cheat sheet” comes in the form of
Stewards reports. They won’t necessarily identify poor rides or pace related failures etc, but they
do cover interference and indiscretions and it takes very little effort to find them and even less to
absorb them.
Listed below are three winners from Saturday and the stewards comments in regard to their previous
races.
Scottish Border: Randwick 10/7/2010
Hampered badly on jumping then bumped on the Hindquarter after passing the 200m. Was then forced to
race tightly on the inside of heels for some considerable distance.
Princess Natural: Canterbury 2/6/2010
Badly crowded on jumping then approaching the 600m was steadied when crowded for room.
Kimberley Kid: Warwick Farm 14/7/2010
After being held up was steadied when crowded passing the 200m. After this incident was unable to
obtain clear running and was not fully tested.
All of these horses were undervalued by the market but not by myself. I can only assume two things.
Few punters or Bookmakers do sufficient video replay homework or they fail to read Stewards
reports…..or both!
(2) Identifying Improvers
Whether you believe it or not, proven horses just don’t and can’t improve their rating by 6 lengths
in two weeks. I have certainly seen it happen though. Seems an odd statement but the fact is the
horse didn’t improve 6 lengths, it actually underperformed by 6 lengths prior. There are always
reasons for previous poor performances when a horse failed to run to its capability. As a form
student you have to predict the improvement before it occurs and not be the punter who looks at the
form after the race and finds reasoning then. For the most part there will be an occurence or a
series of occurences over time that has caused a horse to underate. The big improvers and long priced
winners come from the latter. Here are a few things to look for:
* Barriers
The barrier has significant effect on performance but moreso over the sprint distances. There is a
misconception however that wide barriers have the same detrimental effect on all horses and that’s not the case.
horses that have above average early speed who under the right conditions in a 14 horse field will
position 4th-5th in the run. When these types draw poorly there are only two possible scenarios. Go
forward and race wide or go back and race against its usual pattern. In both cases you dont need to
be a genius to predict that this horse wont perform to its peak rating. Look for these types who have
drawn poorly at their past four or five runs and then finally draw a barrier.
less.
* Class
old Class racing and if you don’t understand it, you need to or there is no possible way you can do
the form. Here is a brief synopsis. The class system went as follows.Maiden Horses who have not won a race
Class 1 Horses who have 1x win
Class 2 Horses who have 2x wins
Class 3 Horses who have 3x wins
Class 4 Horses who have 4x wins
Class 5 Horses who have 5x wins
Class 6 Horses who have 6x wins
Welter Open
Listed Open (conditional)
Group Open (conditional)
Under the class system lets say a horse win 3 races. That horse is compelled to race in Class 3 or
higher for the rest of it’s career. The problem was many horses did reach a level where they were no
longer competitive and so either had to stop racing or be sold to Darwin etc. So the Benchmark system
came into play and this system of classifying horses enabled lots more adaptability and to a lesser
degree “rorts”. Horses can race outside their Benchmark but they are severely weighted when doing
so. This has enabled better and bigger fields and also created a lot more opportunities for
apprentices. But one of the best parts of this system is that horses who fail in higher Benchmark
events, can (over time) have their Benchmark reduced incrementally and therefore drop back
significantly in class.
Look for them. Significant grade or class drops mean horses will not only compete better, but
generally will have no problem altering their racing patterns. These are the improvers you need to
find before the race…. as you cant make money after its over!
* Track Condition
Some horses simply cant compete on Slow/Heavy tracks. Generally trainers won’t/don’t run them but beware the unfit horse who has resumed and had two runs on unsuitable wet tracks. Often, (especially over Winter) trainers have no choice but to run a horse to get it fit. The lead up runs particularly on unsuitable track conditions often short of a horses ideal distance range, are well hidden. Third up the same horse appears on a good track over a more suitable distance and wins.
Happens… and over winter it happens frequently.
Senior Form Analyst
{ 12 comments… read them below or add one }
Your comments particularly in relation to Class and Benchmark changes are particularly interesting.
I had no idea that a horse could race below its actual Benchmark, but i checked with Racing N.S.W and you are correct.
It would be good if you could provide some more info on the whole process in detail please Ed.
Thanks Briggsy
Briggsy,
Its a reasonably complicated system that cant be addressed in a few lines on this forum, however, i may go into it in more depth at our next Webinar for members .
At this stage that looks like being in 2 weeks time possibly 11th August. We will let you know.
When you speak about near on pace horses being most affected by bad barrier draws, how do we go about deciding what their actual chance is of winning.
In your ratings you have a price for each horse. I guess what i really want to know is how i can go about doing the same thing?
I would like your response to that.
Martin
Good question Martin.
For the “recreational” punter it is not an easy thing to do, particularly without the necessary ingredients nor a pricing programme etc .However you still need to come up with some method of working out the probability of a horse winning.Why??
Two reasons. You need to know how much to bet & you need to have a good understanding of the winning and losing chance the horse has, (hence your probable strike rate backing similar chances longterm.)For instance if you were to bet the same amount longterm on $3.50 chances as $4.80 chances, longterm you will not survive.Without deviation one will win at a rate of 28.57% over time and consequently that means it will also lose 71.42% of the time whilst the other 20.83% and lose 79.17%. Do the math.
I may produce a very simple pricing programme in the near future!
Great article Ed – I have learnt a lot already and the information so far has helped me not back a few horses that lost on the weekend. Great help keep up the good work.
Fantastic article – I now realise how many losers I have backed that I should not have considered. Can’t wait for part 3.
Another informative and interesting article to follow up on last weeks, however I was hoping that you would include a sample speed map and maybe also what you considered to be the best place to source this information.
Would this criteria also be the same for overseas racing as that is something of great interest to myself, mainly Hong Kong, Singapore and Phillipines.
Keep up the good work.
Jose
Jose’ or should that be Hose,
I am sorry that i totally forgot to include a speed map in this weeks Newsletter as promised thru the blog last week. I will make sure I address that area (with map included) in next Monday’s edition.
With regard to Hong Kong, Singapore and Phillipines i really don’t have the luxury of time to watch racing there as much as I would like, but how you go about form shouldn’t vary much regardless of where the races are held.
Excellent content with regard to stewards reporting on interference. Many years ago I worked for a VERY successful ( and still in business ) bookmaker. Countless winners were found by the analysts because they studied videos. ie. they were ‘playing steward’ themselves.
I remember one guy who ONLY backed horses he found were inconvenienced and looked like they had more to give. So once again you make a valid point, that can be verified from both sides of the bookies bag.
Keep up the blog Ed.
Wish you still worked for that Bookmaker Fred as you may have been able to convince him to take our members bets.
As you know the Coorporates (not all) believe the only way to be successful like your ex Boss is to deny bets as oppossed to increasing turnover.
Let me know if you return!!
Cheers Ed
Ed
will you advise what speedmap service you would recommend , as i like to do my own form , a speed map service would save some time
regards
john
Hi John
Ed produces his own speed maps from all the sectional data and video comments he has, so I am not sure he could recommend another speed map service having never trialled them.
Cheers
David
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