Rosehill hosts the big Golden Rose meeting tomorrow so let’s take a closer look at results at the track to see if there are any angles to work with.
Focusing on the last four seasons and runners under 10/1 we’ll start with the record of the big trainers at Rosehill. Pride, Waterhouse and Waller runners return excellent figures at the track, while the Snowden stable has a terrible record:
POT% Trainer
+12 J Pride
+8 G Waterhouse
+3 C Waller
-1 JB Cummings
-9 J O’shea
-9 G Ryan
-11 D Payne
-22 P Snowden
Next we will look at the jockeys and the standouts are Schofield, Rawiller and Bowman:
POT% Jockey
+8 G Schofield
+7 N Rawiller
+4 H Bowman
-5 J Cassidy
-10 B Shinn
-13 P Robl
-13 K Mcevoy
-19 C Brown
Thankfully we are expecting a good track tomorrow, because results at Rosehill become less predictable as the track condition worsens:
POT% Going
-3 Good
-7 Dead
-12 Slow
-13 Heavy
Punters often like to see that their horse has performed well at the track in prior starts, but the numbers show that Rosehill experience was very much over-rated. Horses with at least one start there lost 12% on turnover, while runners without experience at the track were a far better betting proposition:
POT% Rosehill starts
-4 0
-12 1+
There is little to be gleaned from the profitability by barrier draw as there is no firm pattern:
POT Barrier
3 1
-14 2
-23 3
-10 4
9 5
9 6
-8 7
-17 8
-18 9
-15 10
-6 11+
A quick summary of Rosehill:
- Pride, Waterhouse, Waller, Schofield, Rawiller and Bowman are all positives
- Snowden and Brown perform poorly for punters
- The drier the track, the more confidence you can have in the form
- Don’t be put off by no previous experience at the track
- Barriers aren’t a big deal (in general – this varies by race distance)
Hopefully that’s given you a little extra insight into the Rosehill track. Of course if you’re serious about winning then this is one very small part of a far bigger equation, but since many of these figures are not widely known amongst the punting public it is at least a starting point for your analysis.
Good punting
David Duffield
{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
I find the stat about the having no experience at Rosehill very interesting. One of my main reasons for dismissing a horse is having a poor record at the track, but I guess no experience does not necessarily mean the same thing.
I would be keen to hear any thoughts/stats about what effect the number of starts the horse has had makes. I generally penalise a horse that’s had more than 25-30 starts. Not always of course, some horses thrive the older they get (Danleigh just last weekend). It only really applies to 3yo and upwards but I’d like to know the stats for 0-10 starts, 10-20 starts, 20-30 starts, 30+ starts. I’d imagine that the 10-20 would be most horses prime.