Cox Plate Day review

Race 1 The Inglis Banner 1000m
Off a very strong tempo there were some great performances here but none better than second placed Masthead who was buffeted from pillar to post but showed tremendous grit and determination to go down fighting. It is no doubt a 2 year-old of some potential and as the distance increases to 1200m etc it will be even better suited. It’s sectionals were clearly the best from the race posting 10.89 from the 800 to the 600, then 11.16, 11.81 and 12.83. The winner Elite Falls was good and it will be well suited to the bigger Flemington track provided of course it can handle running in a straight line for 1200m.

Race 2 The Arrow Stakes 1600m
With a final 600 sectional of 35.58 the race was always in the hands of the leading division and that was the case as the on pacers Zubbaya, Absoloutely and Ambers Waltz filled the placings. Zubbaya was very impressive but it’s fair to say Ambers Waltz was equally unimpressive. Given it was dropping substantially in grade and the fact it had all the favours in the run it’s performance was disgraceful. It now has a record of 1/11 and certainly cannot be entertained as a betting proposition at present. The Mick Kent trained Redoutes Choice Filly Absoloutely was very impressive. It was coming off a Maiden placing at Cranbourne on the 10th October and can only improve. It finished off with splits of 11.57, 11.51, 12.33 and should be followed.

Race 3 The Red Anchor Stakes 1200m
They went quickly early here handing over the advantage to the swoopers, with the last 600 being a very slow 36.85. The winner That’s Not It was able to round up a tired lot here with Happy Trails coming from well back to finish second. Under the circumstances Dutchy’s Lass was very good to set the tempo and show some resilience to hold on well in the straight. This race could be run and won by a different horse each time and certainly today’s result was very much tempo related.

Race 4 The Crystal Mile 1600m
They really motored along early and the race was setup for swoopers and backmarkers. There were some excellent runs here but none better than  Anthony Cummings’ Trader who was the only on pace horse to stick on despite the tempo affording it no favours at all. It was attempting the 1600 for the first time adding even more merit to it’s performance. Snow Alert was also good but was pole-axed when it went to make a run between horses and did well to re-gather and finish off. The winner Sound Journey didn’t appear to have the ratings to win this event but the extreme early tempo did give it opportunity which it took. Kavanagh commented that he had implemented further gear changes in a bid to get the best out of what is a problematic horse to train and punters were left wishing he hadn’t. Poor Judge was posted three wide throughout courtesy of it’s barrier and a poor ride and can be forgiven. Drumbeats simply couldn’t quicken when they sprinted and was back further than anticipated after having missed the start marginally. This race possibly will not stack up as a future form race moving forward.

Race 5 The Schweppes Stakes 1200m
What an arrogant display we saw here. From the 400 to the 200 Black Caviar put paid to them quickly with an electrifying burst after having tracked True Persuasion early. The win was its seventh straight victory and each of them has been impressive. The long awaited clash with Hay List now has many racing pundits finally leaning towards Black Caviar. Certainly it will be good to watch but given they will probably race up the Flemington straight it may in fact give an advantage to the bigger, stronger Hay List, whereas a track like Caulfield would see a more even contest. Either way the publicity, opinions, disagreements and conjecture are all great for racing.

Race 6 The AAMI Vase 2040m
The Derby trial was run at a much quicker tempo than the Cox Plate which is often the case. The overall time of 2.07.09 was also approximately 2.5 lengths faster than So You Think ran, however that statistic is really irrevelant in this particular case. It was good to see Rekindled Interest finally win after the run of poor barriers and hard luck in running over the past months. By virtue of the better draw Rekindled Interest was able to take a more forward position than in any race it had contested to date. The good tempo gave those horses back in the field every chance to win but they couldn’t make an impression on Lion Tamer or Rekindled Interest. Lion Tamer’s performance was particularly good given the tempo and also the fact it had done  plenty of work in the run . Having said that it would be difficult to envisage it or any of the horses who contested this event being competitive with Rekindled Interest at the Derby trip especially on the bigger Flemington track where it can be ridden more quietly in the initial stages. Barring bad weather it would not be surprising to see it start at $3 or possibly less on the day in my view.

Race 7 The Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Precedence was too good here in what was a moderate race. Despite showing it’s tendency to over-race early Precedence managed to settle 5th by the 1600 and was travelling better in a race that was run at a solid tempo. The moves came at the 500 as Above Average and Precedence made their move and out sprinted the field . Capecover came from well back and was very strong to the line. The rest didn’t do much. The notable failure was Master O’Reilly who was back from WFA events and had a charmed run but failed to produce. It is either gone, too old or in need of a bigger track, but certainly at the weights it had all the favours today and was dismal. The race may be over but the 1.5kg penalty given to Precedence (which still may not be enough to get into the Cup) has ruffled feathers. Lloyd Williams has berated Carpenter’s decision suggesting the penalty was not earned and I must say I agree. History shows that .5 of a kilo has been the standard set and it is impossible to argue against if we look back at the historical statistics. Certainly the strength of the field cant be used as an argument for the increased penalty.

Race 8 The Cox Plate 2040m
From the outset the predicted speed map was altered as the New Zealand horse Wall Street missed the start. More Joyous dictated in the lead and they went along at quite a leisurely tempo. The action didn’t start till the 700m mark when Nash quickened on More Joyous but was shadowed and completely “monstered” by So You Think who put together a 11.68 section followed by a 10.90 and covered the final 600 in the quickest sectional of the day 34.83.  This strategy of breaking the hearts of the opposition between the 700 and the 300 has been evident in quite a few races over this carnival through the likes of Hay List and Black Caviar as well. Whilst the Cox Plate was run to suit the on-pacers it is difficult to imagine any other result as the big horse is so adaptable. Whobegotyou once again demonstrated its liking for the Moonee Valley track by coming late from well back and producing some smart late sections.

Race 9 The Tesio Stakes 1600m
This was run in very quick tempo with the time of 1.36.71, as well as the split sectionals being near identical to Race 4 won by Sound Journey. The race was setup for Backmarkers and as a result Music Review, Moment In Time and Strawberry Field all had their chance but eventual winner Lady Lynette and second placed Delta Gee both who tracked the speed were too good. The final sectionals of 36.50, 24.78, 12.58 illustrate just how hard fought this win was and the Mare was entitled to look for somewhere to lay down, but didn’t as she saluted again after having won this race in 2009. Taking the form of this race to Flemington may be dangerous as the two tracks generally race in completely different patterns and certainly horses like Zantelagh who was afforded no opportunity in this event would be difficult to beat on the bigger track. Of the beaten brigade, Music Review was very good and is looking for a more suitable 2000m but did have the race run to suit all the same. Returntosender was most unlucky after being in a good position at the turn but lost 3 lengths when squeezed between horses when attempting to improve. It re-gathered composure and finished off well . Marheta was wide throughout and worked too hard on speed, Moment In Time (went to the line better than anything) was well ridden by Nash but needs a bigger track and more ground and Katie Lee raced too far back and was lumped with plenty of weight and so it’s run can be dismissed.

Horses To Follow: Black Caviar, Masthead, Zantelagh, Absoloutely.

Horses To Forget: Ambers Waltz.

By Ed Kennett

Senior Form Analyst

Tagged as: Australian horse racing tips, blackbookers