A punter I was speaking to this week said that he avoided backing horses that won their maiden last start as only 13% went on to win at their next start. I was impressed that he knew this statistic, but unfortunately he didnt know what the profit (or loss) on turnover was for this group of horses. This was a crucial missing ingredient because a strike-rate percentage by itself is almost worthless.
And a strike-rate of 13% is OK if the average winning dividend is $10. On the other hand it’s catastrophic if the average dividend is $5.
So to assess the profitability of last start maiden winners I have looked at their results Australia-wide for each of the last 3 years:
2007
13% winning strike-rate
-23% loss on turnover at NSW TAB prices
-17% loss on turnover best tote
2008
12%
-27%
-21%
2009
13%
-25%
-19%
Those are very poor results with a loss on turnover of 25% (single tote) or 19% (best tote) for a 3 year period.
Let’s contrast those figures with all last-stat winners for the last 3 years, however this time excluding maidens:
16% winning strike-rate
-16% loss on turnover at NSW TAB prices
-10% loss on turnover best tote
It’s quite clear that you can get a 3% better winning strike-rate and 9% better profitability (or in this case 9% less losses) simply by backing last-start winners but avoiding those coming off their maiden win.
So while my punting friend was correct in his theory of generally avoiding maiden winners, make sure you don’t use strike-rate as the sole barometer because as punters we are all about profitability.
Good punting
David Duffield
Champion Picks
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I’ve always tried to avoid backing horses off their maiden win and now I realise why. Those stats are pretty horrible
Keep up the good work guys.
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