Before the race they’re quite prepared to spend 10 minutes doing the form on every runner to work out their bets.

But then once the race has been run most punters spend between 0 and 60 seconds taking a look at the form after the fact.

But this strong bias towards spending time on the pre-race analysis doesn’t make a lot of sense when you have a good think about. OK you can’t get any bets on after the fact, but you can still learn a lot by asking yourself any number of questions.

- Did I back a horse with a poor winning strike rate?
- What was the pace of the race like? Did it suit the on-pace horses or the backmarkers?
- Did the winner come out of what now looks like a very strong form race?
- Did the placegetters ‘frank the form’ from a race where other runners are appearing later today?
- Is there any noticeable track bias today?
- Did a fancied runner have every chance and yet still perform poorly? And if so, why?
- Were there any horses that should go straight into your blackbook?
- Which jockeys are in form and riding well?
- Which trainers have their stable firing right now?
- Did I bet on the race just because I didn’t want to miss a potential winner?

Rather than the 10:1 (or higher) ratio of pre-race to post-race analysis unwittingly employed by most punters, try to get into the habit of a 1:1 ratio instead. If you spend 10 minutes doing the form and analysing the winning chances before the race, spend the same amount of time after the race looking at which horses ran well and why. I think you’d be surprised how much you’ll learn.

And the most successful people I know have an unquenchable thirst for information. Our senior form analyst helps advise a leading trainer on suitable races and race plans for his horses. And do you know what our analyst gets in return? Knowledge. The deal is that every time the trainer calls in he has to teach Ed one new fact about horses. It might be about gear changes, or conformation and what makes a stayer versus a sprinter, or it might be about pedigree, or really it might be about anything at all that is horse-related. But it means that every time Ed speaks to this trainer he learns something new and quite possible something that isn’t widely known.

And all of this information, just like post-race analysis, helps achieve our goal of long term punting profits.

Good punting
David Duffield
Champion Picks
www.championpicks.com.au

Poor jockeys
The best jockeys win the best races so think long and hard before outlaying your hard-earned recession busting dollars on a poor postillion.

Bad barriers
Don’t complain that your horse is racing three-wide the trip when you knew it was coming from barrier 16.

Short-priced favourites
Almost every race over the Spring Carnival has many chances so think twice before backing the hot favourite.

Straight races
These are notorious for hard-luck stories with many horses struggling to get clear running room.

Over indulging
Betting and alcohol aren’t really a winning combination so have a money management plan and stick to it.

Going Cup crazy
Don’t bet 5 times your normal wager on the cup just because it’s the race that stops a nation. You can still enjoy our great race with a normal sized bet.

Tote odds
Anyone betting solely with the tote either has no understanding of percentages or has chosen to use their spare time to help fund a wannabe monopoly.

Coat tuggers
If you’ve done the form or subscribed to a service don’t let the ‘coat tuggers’ persuade you to change your tip.

The get out stakes
Whether you’re up for the day, down or all-square it rarely ends well when you put all of your betting bank down on the ‘lucky last’.

Good luck to you during the best week of the year!

Good luck
David Duffield
www.championpicks.com.au

John Hawkes began his training career during the 1971-1972 racing season in Adelaide. But his story really begins when he began working for the Ingham family in 1992. He moved to Melbourne from Sydney when offered the top job by the ‘chicken kings’ Jack and Bob Ingham. Hawkes was in charge of stables in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide. The Hawkes and Inghams’ partnership became a long and successful association that did not end until 2007 when he chose to begin his own training operation.

The working relationship between John Hawkes and the Inghams has already gone down as the most successful owner-trainer force in Australian racing history.

Glory By the Numbers

When you look at the statistics which back up the success of John Hawkes as a thoroughbred race horse trainer, you can easily understand why he is so admired and honoured. The numbers are impressive and reflect a long career marked by one success after another. He can currently claim 96 Group I wins with his most recent being a win by Mentality at the George Main Stakes.

The success of John Hawkes as a trainer is undisputed. He has earned over $120 million in prize money, had over 540 stakes wins, and set a single season win record of 334 victories in 2001-2002. He has also won 3 of the 4 major Australian races which include 2 Golden Slippers, 1 Cox Plate and 1 Caulfield Cup. He has earned 10 Australian and 9 Sydney training premierships on top of it all.

In recognition of Mr. Hawkes stunning training records, he was inducted into the Australian Hall of Fame in 2004.

Octagonal and Lonhro

While John Hawkes probably has many years of success ahead, it will be exceptionally difficult for him to find another champion quite as good as Octagonal or Lonhro.

Octagonal won the 1995 Cox Plate race and was crowned the Australian Champion 2 year-old that same year. Octagonal then won the 1996 AJC Australian Derby, the 1997 Australian Cup, and the 1996 and 1997 BMW. ‘The Big O’ won 13 of 27 starts during a great career that made him famous for his never say die attitude and the ability to almost invariably win a photo-finish.

Lonhro, sired by Octagonal, won the 2004 Australian Cup and was known for explosive running power. The horse won 24 of 32 starts. Lonhro, like Octagonal, was named an Australian Horse of the Year. Octagonal won 10 Group 1 races and Lonhro went one better with 11 Group 1’s.

John Hawkes’ first Caulfield Cup win did not come easy, in fact he was 36 years into his training career before Railings beat the Japanese horse Eye Popper by half a head in the 2005 Caulfield Cup.

A Family Partnership

After almost 15 years with the Inghams, John Hawkes stunned the racing world by announcing he was starting his own family-owned training operation. In November 2007, he began training horses with his two sons Wayne and Michael.

Mentality’s win in the George Main Stakes at Randwick in 2008 was the first Group 1 winner for the new family partnership.

The Australian racing books are forever etched with the name of premier trainer John Hawkes and the deeds of his two champions Octagonal and Lonhro.

The “Race of the Century” in 1986 featured a titanic neck and neck battle between two chestnut geldings that raced into “equine immortality”. For the last 800 metres Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star battled for the Cox Plate, with Bonecrusher prevailing by a neck. It is a story Australian punters retell over and over again, because it holds all of the elements which make horse racing so enthralling.

The Cox Plate race is a weight-for-age race over 2,040 metres and was named after William Samuel Cox who founded the Moonee Valley Racing Club. The first race was run in 1922 and with a purse worth 1,000 pounds.

Today the race is worth more than $3.1 million including $1.8 million to the winner. The only other Australian race with more prize money is the Melbourne Cup. The race is a Group 1 thoroughbred race for 3 year-old or older horses. The time it takes to run the race is often referred to as the “greatest two minutes in sport”.

A Race of Memories

The Cox Plate is nestled right between the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, our two famous staying handicap races. This gives it a special standing in racing annals and it’s weight-for-age status means that the best horse should win. Over the last 9 decades the Cox Plate has given the racing world plenty of excitement and memories.

The first horse to win the Cox Plate was Violoncello who was from Great Britain. Other winners of our great race have been bred in Australia, New Zealand and Ireland. Australia’s most famous horse Phar Lap won the 1930 and 1931 Cox Plates. And who could forget the great Kingston Town’s wins in 1980, 1981 and 1982.

Rising Fast won the 1954 Cox Plate and went on to become the only horse to win the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate in the same year. New Zealand horse Tulloch set a new race record in 1960 and in some quarters was compared to the great Phar Lap. The current race record is held by Might and Power and was set in 1998 when the horse won in 2 minutes and 3.54 seconds. Dulcify (1979) and Sunline (1999) share the greatest winning margin of 7 lengths.

Global and Proud

Since 1999 the Cox Plate has been part of the horse racing World Series and this has added even more prestige and global significance. The 12 race World Series includes races that are run on four continents.

The Cox Plate is a great horse race held every year at Melbourne’s Moonee Valley. And every year punters watch to see if equine immortality will be claimed by Australia’s new weight-for-age champion.

To offset this and to smooth out the inevitable ups and downs of flat betting (which is outlaying the same amount on every bet you make), many professional punters employ a proportionate staking approach.

Basically a proportionate plan involves betting to return a certain dollar amount (or percentage of bank) per bet. The effect of a proportionate staking approach is that each winner returns the same amount regardless of the starting price.

For example you might bet to return $100 per winner, which means that:

(a) If you’re getting odds of $2.50 you outlay $40.
(b) If you’re getting odds of $5 you outlay $20.
(c) If you’re getting odds of $10 you outlay $10.

Or you may bet to return 5% (or 5 units) of your bank, which means on a starting bank of 100 units that:

(d) If you’re getting odds of $2.50 you outlay 2 units (or 2% of your bank).
(e) If you’re getting odds of $5 you outlay 1 unit (or 1% of your bank).
(f) If you’re getting odds of $10 you outlay ½ unit (or ½% of your bank).

Consider the following six bet sequence to demonstrate how different level stakes betting can be from proportionate staking:

Winners at $2.50 and $3.50, losers at $4.00, $5.00, $10 and $10.

So in this example we have winners at $2.50 and $3.50 from six bets, which represents a break-even result betting level stakes (six units outlaid and six returned).

But if we were betting to return $100 per winner, we would have outlaid the following amounts: $40, 20, 10, 28, 25 and 10. Our two winners returned a total of $200 so after our $133 outlay we have a profit of $67 or basically 50% profit on turnover.

While this is a very small sample for the sake of simplicity, you can see that a break-even result at level stakes can actually generate a very good return using proportionate staking.

And proportionate staking also makes a lot of sense in that no matter how good your form analysis or ratings are, it’s a fact that a much greater percentage of the horses you back under $3 will win compared to those at say $6. While you can beat the market, you can’t turn it upside down so it makes sense to outlay more on those horses that have a greater chance of winning.

Good punting

David Duffield

www.championpicks.com.au

The Caulfield Cup is the major lead-up race for the Melbourne Cup and as a result the histories of each famous race are woven together. Many of the same trainers, jockeys and horse names can be found when you read the honours roll of both races. When a horse wins both the Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup, it is said to have won the “Cups double”.

The Group 1 Caulfield Cup race may lead to the Melbourne Cup, but it stands alone in its heritage. The Caulfield racetrack, also known as “The Heath”, is the home of the Melbourne Racing Club. The handicap race is run over 2400 metres, or a mile and a half, and Caulfield’s triangular shape makes for three straight runs.

The Early Years

Few people in the 1800’s would have known that the Caulfield Cup would become such a beloved Australian horse race that now captures the interest of the world.

The early Caulfield Cup races were run under difficult conditions which reflected the hardiness of the Australians. The first horse to win was named Newminster and he had to cope with no running rails and an ill-defined course. The race quickly became so popular that people began to turn it into an event replete with carnival activities and some of the best fashion finery made. In just a few short years, the Caulfield Cup went from a rough and tumble race to one attended by Australia’s richest citizens. That only proves horse racing is in the blood, because you could not keep Australians away from such an event.

Poseidon and Rivette

The Melbourne Cup race has seen some of the greatest horse racing ever recorded. It seems only fitting that one of the great winners was a horse named Poseidon, who shared it’s name with the legend of Greek mythology. In 1906 Poseidon won the Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup, AJC and Derby in a single season, becoming the only horse to do so.

The mare Rivette won the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup’s in 1939, becoming the first mare to win the cups double. What made this story particularly remarkable is that her trainer, Harry Bamber, was virtually broke before the race, but never lost faith in his horse. Needless to say Mr. Bamber was set for life financially after the Cups double.

Since 1879 there have only been 11 horses that can claim this feat: Poseidon in 1906, The Trump in 1937, Rivette in 1939, Rising Fast in 1954, Even Stevens in 1962, Galilee in 1966, Gurner’s Lane in 1982, Let’s Elope in 1991, Doriemus in 1995, Might and Power in 1997 and Ethereal in 2001.

The Race is On

Over the years the Caulfield Cup has grown in stature. The names of legendary past winners roll off the tongues of Australians….Rising Fast setting records in 1954 that stand today; Rivette the first winning cups double mare; Ming Dynasty winning in 1977 and 1980; Taufan’s Melody the first English trained horse to win the race in 1998.

The names of horses and jockeys and trainers that cover almost 130 years of Australian history are testament to a race that holds a country enthralled year after year.

The Melbourne Cup was first run in 1861 when it was won by a horse named Archer. This race was 2 miles long or 3,218 metres. In 1972 the length of the race was changed to 3,200 metres to accommodate an official switch to the metre system. Archer was from Nowra, New South Wales and was ridden by aboriginal jockey J. Cutts. Archer went on to win again in 1862.

The Melbourne Cup didn’t take long to establish itself in the nation’s conscience, in fact from 1877 the first Tuesday in November was made a recognized public holiday.

Lightning Strikes More Than Once

The Melbourne Cup is widely considered to be the world’s greatest handicap. A handicap means that the better horses are given the most weight, with the intention that each horse has some kind of winning chance.

The long history of the Melbourne Cup has made many legends of the turf that evoke quick breaths, cheering and shouts of success among Australians. Though the world watches and enters horses into the race, this is a distinctly Australian event. Over time the race has become the impetus for displays of stunning and unusual fashions and plenty of parties.

After Archer there has been a series of successful thoroughbreds setting new records and offering the best that horse racing has to offer. Even those who do not follow horse racing have heard of Phar Lap. Phar Lap was foaled in New Zealand and was the winner of the 1930 Melbourne up. This famous horse was 17 hands high and went on to become the world’s third highest stake holder in 1932 at the time of his death. He was appropriately named for the Thai phrase that means “lightning”. Quick and lively, this horse captured the hearts and minds of a nation.

Peter Pan, named like the boy who could fly, won the Melbourne Cup twice – once in 1932 and once in 1934. In 1938, the first horse trained by a woman, Mrs. Allan MacDonald, won the race. His name was Catalogue but record books show Mrs. MacDonald’s husband was the trainer because women were not recognized yet for achievements in horse racing.

It was not until 2003 that a racehorse began a series of wins that would set a new record. Makybe Diva was the first horse to win three races in 2003, 2004, and 2005. The Japanese horse Delta Blues won in 2006 while Efficienct won in 2007.

Naturally there are many other beautiful and successful racing stories throughout the history of the Melbourne Cup. The race is witnessed each year by over 100,000 people at the track and millions around the world. Worth $5.5 million, it is the richest handicap race in the world and is the highlight of the iconic Spring Racing Carnival.

The race is held by the Victoria Racing Club. The current race-record holder is Kingston Rule who won in 1990 in just 3 minutes and 16.3 seconds. This means, each year, race lovers hold their breaths for a little over 3 minutes as they wait to see which horse will become the next two-mile champion.

Phar Lap was born October 4th, 1926 in New Zealand before being sold as a yearling to David J. Davis, an American-born sportsman living in Australia, for 160 guineas. Davis’ first view of the giant 17.1 hand chestnut, whose name is Thai for “lightning”, was not a positive one. He had bought the colt based on his pedigree alone, and he had thought he was really getting a good bargain, until he saw the horse. Phar Lap arrived in Australia thin and rather clumsy, with an awkward gait. He also sported warts all over his big head.

Davis was quite angry about how Phar Lap looked and moved, and even angrier at the trainer Harry Telford, who had talked him into buying the horse. He decreed that he would not waste any more of his money by having the horse trained, and leased him to that same trainer. It would be Telford’s responsibility to pay for the training and feeding of Phar Lap, and then he would be able to keep two-thirds of the money that the horse won. Telford had long studied the pedigrees of racehorses, and felt that Phar Lap’s breeding was good enough that he had champion potential. He was gelded so that the young horse would better concentrate on his racing.

“Bobby”, Phar-Lap’s stable nickname, was attended by a stable boy called Tommy Woodcock. The horse was known to be a good natured prankster, and enjoyed playing little tricks on Woodcock. Phar Lap was so devoted to the stable boy that he would not eat unless Woodcock came to be in the stall with him.

Phar Lap got off to rather a slow start in racing, not placing at all in his first four races. Finally, on April 27th 1929, he won the Maiden Juvenile Handicap at Rosehill when ridden by 17 year-old apprentice Jack Baker. Once Phar Lap ran a strong second in the Chelmsford Stakes at Randwick on September 14 1929, he really began to get attention from the racing community as a whole. For the rest of his all too short life, Phar Lap would only fail to place one time, in the Melbourne Cup of 1931. His powerful leg muscles and strong heart were a credit to him as he won race after race, including 14 from 16 as a four year-old.

Phar Lap’s winning ways did not please everyone. On Derby Day, November 1 1930, someone tried to keep him from running the Melbourne Stakes by taking a shot at him. He was unhurt, thanks to the quick thinking of Tommy Woodcock, and went on to win the race that day. He also won the Melbourne Cup three days later despite a troublesome and delayed float trip. By the end of that week the horse nicknamed Big Red had survived a shotgun attack and won four races.

Phar Lap went to Mexico by ship with luxurious accommodation by equine standards to compete in the $100,000 Agua Caliente Handicap. Even though he had travelled such a long way, and also had an injured hoof, he won the race and proved to the racing world that he really was the wonder from Down Under.

Following that win Phar Lap next travelled to the United States. He was enjoying a spell at a private ranch in Menlo Park, California while his owner was busily negotiating more races for him. Early in the day on April 5, 1932, Tommy Woodcock discovered that Phar Lap looked and acted ill. He took the horse’s temperature, found it was elevated, and then discovered that the horse was in considerable. By midday Phar Lap began to haemorrhage and soon after died. Woodcock was inconsolable, throwing himself onto the horse’s body and sobbing.

Australians, Americans, and people around the world were shocked and stunned at the sudden death of Phar Lap. An autopsy was done, and it was discovered that the horse’s intestines and stomach were much inflamed, which led to the belief he had been poisoned. Rumours started to fly that Phar Lap had been poisoned deliberately. The ranch where he was staying had recently been sprayed with an insecticide that contained arsenic. It was also rumoured that Tommy Woodcock had accidently given the horse too much of a tonic that contained arsenic. Called Fowler’s Solution, it was given to horses in order to help them have an appetite. Scientists later confirmed that, whether intentional or not, Phar Lap almost certainly died from an overdose of arsenic.

Phar Lap still stands on display at the Melbourne Museum as a tribute to his greatness. The National Museum in Canberra has his big heart which weighs an amazing 6.2kg, almost double the size of a normal racehorse.

It’s a fast and furious race which attracts entries from all the Aussie states and other world class breeders and trainers. Every year the race has all the elements required to make racing blood boil and betting fly. The drama of horses coming from the extreme outside, wins by a nose, record breaking runs and coming from last to win are just some of the exciting events defining this glorious race.

In Australia, horse racing is not just racing. The love for the sport runs through the blood as fast as the dash for cash that is the Golden Slipper. For Australian breeders it is considered to be easily the most influential race for future sires and broodmares.

Betting History

Horses must be yearlings when entered, with late entries accepted until the end of March which adds another layer to betting. Betting up to the start of the race is as exciting as the race itself. The Golden Slipper is one of Australia’s greatest racing events which also include the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.

Golden Slipper winners have included stars of the turf such as Miss Finland, Dance Hero, Catbird, Danzero, Todman, Sky High, Storm Queen, Vain, Toy Show, Luskin Star, Manikato, Sir Dapper, Bounding Away, Canny Lad, Tierce, Merlene and Belle Du Jour. Many of these champions went on to become successful sires or broodmares.

The records show that colts and geldings have won 30 races with the remaining 22 races having been won by fillies.

The first Queensland horse to win the Golden Slipper was Calaway Girl in 2002. That victory only added to the Australian racing excitement that continues to grow with each race held. She was a late entry and needed a long sustained run to win.

Betting on the Golden Slipper race is an exciting time for Aussie punters. Bookmakers start betting on the Slipper many months before the actual race. The 2008 race day betting turnover was the highest it has been in 20 years and is expected to grow. It’s estimated that all in all over $30 million was bet, $18 million through the TAB and $12 million with bookmakers.

Slipper Day

The Golden Slipper race has become so popular in Australia that a two week carnival called the Golden Slipper Festival is held. The last race saw 28,000 racegoers watching the race and enjoying the festivities despite the heavy track. The Golden Slipper has helped generate renewed interest in racing in younger Aussies. The youthfulness and vibrancy that surrounds the race excites the betting action, with plenty of opportunities for punters to win.

The Golden Slipper is a race that Aussie punters should simply not miss when it comes to betting. Normally there are a number of chances in the race and it’s possible to back more than one horse in the race and still make a good profit.

To demonstrate this is more than just a theory, today we’ll take a look at the profitability of backing leading jockey’s, trainers and sires.

Firstly let’s take a look at leading Victorian jockey Brad Rawiller. Over the last five years if you were to back all of his mounts you would have lost around 8% on turnover (at TAB prices). But when we take a closer look at his figures, a typical favourite/longshot bias clearly emerges.

Brad Rawiller

Now we’ll look at Craig Newitt, runner-up in the jockey’s premiership.

OK let’s analyse the two leading trainers to see if the favourite/longshot bias also exists there.

Lee Freedman

David Hayes

And if you needed further proof, let’s consider the results if you were to follow our two leading sires:
Encosta De Lago

So in every example above, whether it was a jockey, trainer or sire, there was a clear demonstration that the rate of return decreases as price increases.

As a punter you should ask yourself does this bias also apply to your own betting? I would be almost certain that it does, and with reasonable record-keeping you can answer that question definitively.

The favourite/longshot bias has existed for many years in racing, sports betting and financial markets and is unlikely to disappear any time soon. So use it to your advantage by focusing on shorter priced horses and your results should improve immediately.