Horse Racing Tips, Articles and Interviews

Staking Plans

David — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 01:13:54 +0000

I’d like to show you a quick example of why staking is so important. Let’s use last Saturday’s members tips in this short video:

Both our members tips and ratings subscribers get a professional staking plan as part of their package. We tell you exactly how much to bet and at what price and this is an important (although often under-estimated) factor in punting success.

What is your approach to staking?

Feel free to post a comment.

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The teachings of Tyson

Horse racing tips (part 2): doing the form

David — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 03:38:21 +0000

Last week we identified five form factors in assessing the form to compile horse racing tips and ratings:

* Create a race profile

* Create a speed map

* Identifying suitability to track, distance & conditions

* Identifying reasons why a horse can’t win.

* Starting bottom up

Today we look at two more:

(1) Read Stewards reports
My guestimate would be less than 1% of punters take the time to read these reports and that would be
overstating it I would suggest. I can understand “recreational” punters not having the application to
watch the replays I get through each week, but a good shortcut or “cheat sheet” comes in the form of
Stewards reports. They won’t necessarily identify poor rides or pace related failures etc, but they
do cover interference and indiscretions and it takes very little effort to find them and even less to
absorb them.

Listed below are three winners from Saturday and the stewards comments in regard to their previous
races.

Scottish Border: Randwick 10/7/2010
Hampered badly on jumping then bumped on the Hindquarter after passing the 200m. Was then forced to
race tightly on the inside of heels for some considerable distance.

Princess Natural: Canterbury 2/6/2010
Badly crowded on jumping then approaching the 600m was steadied when crowded for room.

Kimberley Kid: Warwick Farm 14/7/2010
After being held up was steadied when crowded passing the 200m. After this incident was unable to
obtain clear running and was not fully tested.

All of these horses were undervalued by the market but not by myself. I can only assume two things.

Few punters or Bookmakers do sufficient video replay homework or they fail to read Stewards
reports…..or both!

(2) Identifying Improvers
Whether you believe it or not, proven horses just don’t and can’t improve their rating by 6 lengths
in two weeks. I have certainly seen it happen though. Seems an odd statement but the fact is the
horse didn’t improve 6 lengths, it actually underperformed by 6 lengths prior. There are always
reasons for previous poor performances when a horse failed to run to its capability. As a form
student you have to predict the improvement before it occurs and not be the punter who looks at the
form after the race and finds reasoning then. For the most part there will be an occurence or a
series of occurences over time that has caused a horse to underate. The big improvers and long priced
winners come from the latter. Here are a few things to look for:

* Barriers
The barrier has significant effect on performance but moreso over the sprint distances. There is a
misconception however that wide barriers have the same detrimental effect on all horses and that’s not the case.

The horses most affected are the “just off pace” horses, ie. not the superquick leaders. I refer to
horses that have above average early speed who under the right conditions in a 14 horse field will
position 4th-5th in the run. When these types draw poorly there are only two possible scenarios. Go
forward and race wide or go back and race against its usual pattern. In both cases you dont need to
be a genius to predict that this horse wont perform to its peak rating. Look for these types who have
drawn poorly at their past four or five runs and then finally draw a barrier.

Leaders and Backmarkers can be affected by wide draws but the reality is that it is significantly
less.

* Class

Under the new Benchmark system horses can drop back in class. This differs big time from the
old Class racing and if you don’t understand it, you need to or there is no possible way you can do
the form. Here is a brief synopsis. The class system went as follows.Maiden   Horses who have not won a race
Class 1   Horses who have 1x win
Class 2   Horses who have 2x wins
Class 3   Horses who have 3x wins
Class 4   Horses who have 4x wins
Class 5   Horses who have 5x wins
Class 6   Horses who have 6x wins
Welter   Open
Listed   Open (conditional)
Group   Open (conditional)

Under the class system lets say a horse win 3 races. That horse is compelled to race in Class 3 or
higher for the rest of it’s career. The problem was many horses did reach a level where they were no
longer competitive and so either had to stop racing or be sold to Darwin etc. So the Benchmark system
came into play and this system of classifying horses enabled lots more adaptability and to a lesser
degree “rorts”. Horses can race outside their Benchmark but they are severely weighted when doing
so. This has enabled better and bigger fields and also created a lot more opportunities for
apprentices. But one of the best parts of this system is that horses who fail in higher Benchmark
events, can (over time) have their Benchmark reduced incrementally and therefore drop back
significantly in class.

Look for them. Significant grade or class drops mean horses will not only compete better, but
generally will have no problem altering their racing patterns. These are the improvers you need to
find before the race…. as you cant make money after its over!

* Track Condition
Some horses simply cant compete on Slow/Heavy tracks. Generally trainers won’t/don’t run them but beware the unfit horse who has resumed and had two runs on unsuitable wet tracks. Often, (especially over Winter) trainers have no choice but to run a horse to get it fit. The lead up runs particularly on unsuitable track conditions often short of a horses ideal distance range, are well hidden. Third up the same horse appears on a good track over a more suitable distance and wins.

Happens… and over winter it happens frequently.

Ed Kennett
Senior Form Analyst

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-07-25

David — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 19:15:00 +0000

An NRL best bet for Round 20 http://www.championpicks.com.au/blog/ #
Randwick Race 8 # 3 OFFHANDED. Rises in grade here but drops significantly in weight. 1400m is ideal. A good bet at $2.20 or more. #

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NRL best bet for Round 20

David — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 03:24:33 +0000

Click on the Play button below to listen to our NRL analyst discuss his best bet for this weekend.

Scott also talks about his predictions for the semi-finals:

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Horse racing tips: how to do the form more proficiently

David — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 23:51:16 +0000

We all have had a mate who habitually tried to tip us a winner; you know the kind I am talking about: every tip is a “moral” and few if any ever salute the judge. It’s an amazing phenomenon that exists predominantly in Australia.

Maybe I’ve lost my sense of humour, but I don’t find this practice amusing and nor do I tolerate it. That might sound a bit pompous, but why should I? I have always seen very little reason to do something unless I am going to do it well, so I used to often challenge some of these “morals” by asking questions like ‘Who is riding it?’ Where do you expect it to be in the run? Or what is the Benchmark of that race? Naturally the questions are followed by a lengthy period of silence as these self professed great judges blushed, mumbled and stumbled to make an attempt to save face. It is ridiculous practice. I mean seriously would you steer a mate into a bad Business deal or a poor Real Estate opportunity.

If you are going to do something then do it well or not at all, which leads me to the point of this brief article. How well are you doing the form?

Here are a few suggestions which may assist you:

Be aware before you commence analysing the form of the Distance, Class and Track condition of the race you are about to assess. These three elements may seem elementary but you cannot do a worthy assessment without knowing them and applying the aptitude and suitability of each runner to them.

Formulate a Race Profile
Before you start doing any form have a brief look at the field and sort the horses into three categories. Early Pace/ Midfielders /Backmarkers. If you are not familiar with horses speed patterns, find a form guide that provides this information. After I conclude this article I will look for one and advise of the best available.

Draw up a Map
Forget the form for now. Sort the Race profile more specifically. Ascertain who will probably lead, who will be the next pair and so on. If you haven’t tried this before, you won’t ever be any good unless you practice so don’t push it aside. Get good at it! Use a piece of paper or better still an Excel spreadsheet and “draw the map”. Don’t get carried away with “perfectionism” as they are animals, things don’t always go to plan and there will be few times you will ever get the whole map 100% correct all the way from the lead to the last horse. Put the map aside for now and we will come back to it later.

Start at the bottom
I recommend doing this principally for one reason. Generally (but not always) the better horses are in the top half of the field, certainly in Handicaps and most Benchmark races. Starting at the top with the best horses can lead to you being a bit lazy (especially in big fields) and failing to give due respect to the lesser chances as you work through the race. Every horse occupies a percentage of the market so it is important that you ascertain where they all fit in. Doing form in reverse alleviates this problem and you will in fact “perk up” as you start hitting the better horses (generally) towards the top of the page.

Look for reasons why they can’t win
Many punters are very quick to tell you why a horse is a “moral” but I have found it’s a lot easier to invert that form of thinking and look for the opposite. I do it religiously albeit I do have the tools that make it easy. All I am searching for is weakness. That may come in the form of Map position, poor speed figures, Age, Handicap, Distance, Grade or Track condition.

Using Example 3 above. Assume 1250m Race at Canterbury, say 13 runners. Let’s say the best credentialed horse (also the anticipated favourite) is coming off successive wins over similar distance at Randwick and Rosehill. Both wins were in races containing 9 horses and it drew barriers (3) and (4) on each occasion and raced off midfield. Today it’s drawn (9) in a race devoid of pace and therefore expected to be run in a slow early tempo. That’s an opportunity. It will be forced to go back in this race, is inevitably up in grade having come off 2 successive wins, will be further back than usual and with the bigger field it has more trouble to negotiate a path through. Furthermore the tempo will be against backmarkers. Having the confidence now that this horse will be hard pressed to win has given you an edge.

There are 10 sections to the form process. I have briefly elaborated on four above and each Monday in the Newsletter I will do 2 more.

Stay disciplined.

Ed Kennett
Senior Form Analyst
Champion Picks: Horse Racing Tips

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-07-18

David — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 19:15:00 +0000

Interesting story about the huge growth of text based betting in the UK http://bit.ly/bwvKub #

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Saturday’s best bet

David — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 00:38:10 +0000

Rosehill Race 4 # 2 FUSAKEO

From a ratings perspective Fusakeo has them covered here well and truly. Big win two starts back over 1800m and then fought on well last Saturday over 2400m. The drop back in distance tomorrow suits.

FUSAKEO should lead from the jump and Nash will be able to take charge of the battle. Our best for the day anywhere.

Ed Kennett
Champion Picks

Live page recap: July 10

David — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 02:07:27 +0000

What punters can learn from The Beatles, Hendrix, Gates and Obama

David — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 23:54:50 +0000

Are the world’s greatest artists, sportspeople, business leaders and punters born with unmatched talents that allow them to coast through life and do it ‘on the bit’?

Or is sheer hard work the real driving force behind most successful people?

Many people believe that talent is the all-important factor and this leads to thinking that professional punters are also a breed apart and rely on innate skill to make untold millions.

But I strongly believe that hard work, rather than pure talent, is the key and here are just a few examples:

Malcolm Gladwell

While not famous amongst the general public in his own right, Gladwell is a New York Times bestselling author whose research on extraordinarily successful people led him to come up with the 10,000 Hour Rule. Gladwell argues that almost anyone can be an expert in their chosen field – you just have to spend 10,000 hours honing your craft. His book ‘Outliers’ gave numerous examples of people who were the best in the world in their chosen field and every single one of them had put in at least 10,000 hours towards perfecting their craft. Gladwell explains that reaching the 10,000 Hour Rule can be achieved by practicing a specific task for 20 hours a week over a 10 year period.

The Beatles

The boys from Liverpool learned their trade performing for 8 hours a day, 7 days a week at a seedy club in Hamburg, Germany. From 1960-1962 they were required to perform every day, with one hour off between each 60 minute set. “We had to play for hours and hours on end”, John Lennon said. “Every song lasted twenty minutes and had twenty solos in it. That’s what improved the playing”.

Their music was their job and they have often credited this period of hard graft as a key factor in their later success.

Jimi Hendrix

Tired of having his guitar stolen from him, Jimi literally slept with it in his hands for 3 straight years and spent his every waking moment playing it. No surprise then that not long after this period he went from wannabe to world-famous.

Barack Obama

His mother was adamant that for her son to succeed he needed the best possible education. So for a number of years she used to wake Barack at 4am every morning to read to him and help him learn. When Barack balked at her 4 am home-schooling program, his mother replied “this is no picnic for me either, Buster.”

An unrelenting work ethic was instilled in Obama and regardless of whether you agree with his politics or not, his rapid rise from virtual unknown to US President in just a few years was quite amazing.

Bill Gates

Gates gained access to a high school computer in 1968 at the age of 13, and spent 10,000 hours programming on it. The Microsoft founder later said that this access to a computer at a time when they were not commonplace helped him succeed. Without that early experience, Gladwell states that Gates would still be “a highly intelligent, driven, charming person and a successful professional”, but that he might not be worth US$50 billion.

The people listed above are quite an eclectic bunch and this was deliberate on my part. It doesn’t really matter what field of endeavour we’re talking about, it is almost universally true that success comes to those who dedicate themselves and put in the required effort.

To succeed as a serious punter you need to put in many hours to develop your approach and fine-tune your winning edge. The old saying of “The harder I work, the luckier I get” certainly applies to punting and I have never come across anyone successful who doesn’t also work very hard. Even if you’re working full-time you can still simply switch off the TV at night and get learning.

Full-time punting is a grind and it takes a certain level of work ethic and discipline to succeed.

You may be just a few thousand hours away from going professional!

Good punting

David Duffield

Horse Racing Tips

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AFL Round 15 tips

David — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 01:02:21 +0000

In the interview below our AFL analyst discusses two of his best bets for Round 15.

Vince believes there are good value bets in the following games:
Brisbane vs. St Kilda (Saturday night)
Carlton vs. Bulldogs (Sunday twilight)

Click on the link below to listen to this 6 minute audio.

Horse Racing Tips, Articles and Interviews

Staking Plans

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Horse racing tips (part 2): doing the form

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-07-25

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NRL best bet for Round 20

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Horse racing tips: how to do the form more proficiently

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-07-18

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Saturday’s best bet

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Live page recap: July 10

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What punters can learn from The Beatles, Hendrix, Gates and Obama

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AFL Round 15 tips

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