Sports betting

The explosive growth of sports betting

by David March 3, 2011
Sports betting turnover in Australia has doubled in just 5 years and it’s share of the overall gambling industry is growing at an annual rate 24 times that of horse racing (12% annually versus 0.5%). 

So what is it about sports betting that has fuelled this explosive growth? And with the NRL and AFL seasons starting this month what are the main reasons why this will be a record year for football betting?

(1) Easy to learn: football betting doesn’t require a form guide or to learn specialist industry terms. Pretty much any football fan can place a bet, unlike horse racing where there is a learning curve in understanding many of the terms used in a form guide and when placing a bet. We often under-estimate this because we just take this racing jargon for granted as if we have always known it, but people are easily put off by something that seems foreign or difficult so it can be a real impediment to attracting new horse racing punters.

(2) Value for money (part 1): the takeout of a normal horse racing market is 3 or 4 times as much as football or other sports bets, which means the ‘price’ of horse racing is much higher and racing punters lose at a rate 3 or 4 times faster than sports bettors.

(3) Value for money (part 2): a football game goes for 2 or 3 hours, whereas a horse race goes for just a minute or two. The casual punter who wants to have a $20 bet will often choose the ‘value’ option.

(4) Huge media exposure: people want to bet on events they can (a) watch on TV, (b) read about in the papers and (c) chat about with their mates. Football betting undoubtedly offers all three of these, whereas racing is still somewhat of a niche sport.

(5) Wide variety of options: you can bet on almost anything you like in a football game, whether it’s the first scorer, margins or myriad other options. Compare that to horse racing where, except for the advent of laying, punters are basically offered the same bet types they were 10, 20 or even 100 years ago.

(6) Every game is important : the football codes have defined seasons and just 8 to 10 games per week means that every one of those has real meaning. That is in stark contrast to horse racing which is very much a diluted product with wall-to-wall racing 363 days per year.

(7) Both teams are trying: despite the occasional controversy, the football codes have much cleaner reputations compared to horse racing, which has been tainted by the stigma of corruption for as long as there has been betting.

Sports betting will continue to grow at a fast rate for a long time yet, so it’s up to our horse racing administrators to learn from other betting industries and understand that the competition for the gambling dollar will only get tougher in the years ahead.

Good punting

David Duffield

Golf betting previews

by David January 6, 2011

Here are the golf betting selections for this week from a brand new site we’re about to launch…

AFRICA OPEN

So far as the outright market is concerned, the opening Race to Dubai event of 2011 makes limited appeal at best. Rather like the South African Open just before Christmas, there is a huge gulf between the small number of world-class home players and the rest. Charl Schwartzel, Retief Goosen and Louis Oosthuizen are all trading in single figures, and in all likelihood one of that trio will prevail. After all, Schwartzel and Goosen have won the two previous renewals of this event.

Nevertheless, successful betting is about finding value rather than simply predicting winners, and I just couldn’t say that applies here. Goosen, for instance, seems to have forgotten how to win. Of the three, Schwartzel would be my pick, but nobody is going to get rich taking odds of just 6.5 about players of his stature. Granted, he won here last year, but the leaderboard was very tightly bunched and included several rank outsiders.

That lack of serious opposition, however, should present some value in alternative finishing positions markets. Only 11 players in this line-up are ranked in the world’s leading 200, with the overseas challenge looking particularly weak. The strongest Europeans are non-winners Chris Wood, Robert Rock, Gareth Maybin and the declining Darren Clarke. If previous results at East London are anything to go by, all will have to overcome disadvantage. In the last two years, three quarters of those to make the top-five were Sunshine Tour players. (more…)

South African Open golf preview

by David December 15, 2010

South African Open

As has become tradition, the highlight of this final week of the golfing calendar is the South African Open. For it’s 100th renewal, the event is played at it’s most famous venue for the 17th time. Durban Country Club is a traditional, undulating links, positioned beside the Indian Ocean, and is frequently referred to as one of the world’s best.

It is highly likely, (roughly a 2.5 chance), that one of the leading four in the betting will win. Tim Clark, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen and Charl Schwartzel are significantly superior to the rest, apart from theoretically Louis Oosthuisen and Richard Sterne. I use that term because both have struggled of late with injury. Indeed, this event was won by such a top South African player for nine straight years until Richie Ramsay upset the formbook twelve months ago.

Picking between them barely qualifies as shrewd gambling, though, as they’re all such quality players with solid claims. Clark has won here twice, on his home course. Els and Goosen have six Open titles between them. Schwartzel was runner-up five years ago and has improved vastly since. If you’re looking for an interest, I’d opt for Els and Schwartzel, but they aren’t included in this staking plan.

Instead, the best angles here are somewhat reminiscent of the recent Australian events. In other words, backing finishing positions because this lower tour field lacks anywhere near the strength in depth that we’d usually see on the two main tours. There are no top-class Europeans here. OK, Pablo Martin won last week but he is hardly the likeliest back-to-back winner at shortish odds on a completely different course. The other Europeans at 51.0 or less are defending champ Richie Ramsay, who is plausible, very rare winner Damien McGrane, non-winner Robert Rock and rookie Thorbjorn Oleson. In fact amongst the non-South Africans, there are only nine players ranked in the world’s top-200, and nobody from the top-100.

It stands to reason therefore, that Sunshine Tour form should be particularly relevant. The African golf scene is pretty low standard fare, (perhaps the equivalent of the Challenge Tour with fewer competitors?), but these players will at least enjoy home advantage. They will also usually know this course inside out, as it hosts the Suncoast Classic every year. One wouldn’t have thought that reaching the top-25 here would be a huge ask for the best from the home tour.

All this week’s bets therefore, involve four such candidates along with one European outsider. I am having some bets in the outright market, if only because the place odds are so big. JAMES KINGSTON, for instance, simply has to be overpriced at 34.0. He’s finished no worse than ninth in the last three Opens to be held at Durban, and made the top-ten last week at Leopard Creek, where his record is much less impressive. The clinching factor for me is that Kingston topped the greens in regulation there, as that particular stat is expected to be of the utmost importance around this positional layout. He is also recommended in the top-10 market.

JBE KRUGER is recommended in all three markets. This guy has impressed in previous co-sanctioned events as a very accurate player, and he too made the top-ten last week. He’s only coming to the end of his fourth season as a pro, which has been by far his best to date. Kruger has been first or second eight times this year, many of which have come on the Asian Tour, which represents a higher standard than the South African equivalent.

ADILSON DA SILVA and JEAN HUGO both look enormous value on their regional and course form. The former won his second title on this course just six weeks ago, and also finished third last year. Hugo can’t quite match that but has finished second and third in the past two Suncoast renewals, and has won twice since September. In particular, I cannot see how bookies can justify odds of 3.5 or better in the top-25 market about these course experts.

Finally, that European outsider is MICHAEL HOEY. He has become fairly consistent in Europe, if only rarely contending. The fact he’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts reads well at this much lower level, and he does have some regional form having finished runner-up in the 2009 Africa Open. His finest hour came when winning another Race to Dubai event, the 2009 Estoril Open on another links course, Oitavos Dunes.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

Outright

0.3u ew James Kingston @ 34.0 (Sportsbet)
0.2u ew Jbe Kruger @ 61.0 (Centrebet)
0.1u ew Adilson Da Silva @ 81.0 (General)
0.1u ew Michael Hoey @ 126.0 (Sportsbet)

Top-25 Finish

2pts JBE Kruger @ 2.75 (Sportsbet)
1.5pts Adilson Da Silva @ 3.5 (Sportsbet)
1pt Jean Hugo @ 3.75 (Sportsbet)
1pt Michael Hoey @ 4.0 (Centrebet)

Top-10 Finish

1pt James Kingston @ 3.75 (Sportingbet)
0.5pt JBE Kruger @ 6.0 (Centrebet)

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