Thanks to Kvitova going down for us we are now winning 15.65 units in the first 3 weeks of 2012 with an overall strike rate of 56% from 46 trades.

That’s an excellent profit on turnover in anyone’s language, but to be honest the strike rate is down on our average and we believe we can do much better – and with NRL and AFL season not far away, we are well placed for another big year.

The year to date results can be seen on this page.

On to today’s analysis:

TENNIS

Novak Djokovic(SRB) Rank 1
   VS    Andy Murray(GBR) Rank 4

Head to Head Matches   Novak Djokovic leads 6-4, but Murray leads 4-2 from last 6   inlc their last match at Cincinnati last Aug when Djokovic retired with the score at 6-4 3-0

COMMENT:    Ferrer was pathetic in not being able to put away a struggling Djokovic on Wed.. Had the Serb been playing Murray, Federer or Nadal it is doubtful if he would still be in the tournament. The fascinating aspect of this intriguing match is Djokovic’s fitness, as he will need to be 100% to beat Murray who is in great form and does not have the concern of choking in a slam final. Djokovic has said that he does not have any physical issues, but clearly something was wrong and it remains to be seen if it returns, whatever it was, we certainly do not wish to take 1.43 to find out.

STAKING PLAN:    We are having an excellent month and now that Kvitova has kindly bowed out for us, there is little point undoing our good work and risking Djokovic further although he only loses us 2.88 units if he wins his next 2 matches. Our aim to try and do what we did with Berdych and put a back bet in for him at 2.44 for 2 Units which will scratch out our initial trade. We will achieve this if either Murray tonight or Nadal on Saturday night can win the first set. A scratch trade is a good trade as we had an opportunity to win. Our fundamental philosophy is always to make small regular profits and minimize losses which will yield us a big profitable year.

(3)Victoria Azarenka(BLR)

   VS    (4)Maria Sharapova(RUS)

Head to Head Matches   Tied 3-3

These two grunters have not met since Rome (clay) last May when Sharapova won after losing the 1st set and Aza retired. Azarenka won the previous 2 matches on hard court.

COMMENT:    It will be a surprise if this game does not go 3 sets, but given both ladies tend to have a heart attack when they see the winning post; we suggest exotics may be the best way to go.

Remember that Sharapova has a 96% win record when she wins the first set, and both ladies will get nervous trying to serve out for the set or match. They are actually better off receiving so they cannot double fault.

Sharapova has done a remarkable job to make the final given her shoulder injury and how dedicated she has been to make it back as fit as she is. It would be wise to not place too much emphasis on her form over the last 12 months, but she is certainly back as good as ever now. She could not buy a first serve against Kvitova and would have won easily with a better display, and it looms again as the main excuse for her here if she is beaten. Azarenka has as much talent as any player, but this is new ground for her and she has shown in the past that she is a nervous wreck on big points, and this will be her biggest mountain ever. It is hard to be enticed by her skinny odds which are influenced by results from the last year which we have suggested could be misleading. The statistical probability needs to be weighted with Sharapova’s shoulder injury.

STAKING PLAN: Nothing in the plan, but if members wish to have an interest, you should bet that the match will go 3 sets, and or, back Sharapova if she wins the first set providing she is beaten in set 2 and if she is $2.00 or better.

QUOTE:           “Her movements around the court and her attitude have changed so much in the last 12 months.” Rennae Stubbs, Channel 7 commentator discussing Victoria Azarenka.

Pending tennis bets:

Traders:          Lay Djokovic at 2.44 for 2 units and we will see where we are later.

Punters:          Lay Djokovic for 2 units @ 2.44 and cheer for Murray in the semi.

FOOTBALL: 

Game: Gold Coast v Central Coast Mariners
League: A-League
Time: 8.00pm AEDT 9.00 am GMT
Betfair Market:  Match odds

Top of the league plays bottom of the league and we can only see one result.

Central Coast have won 8 of their last 10 away matches and they have won the first half in 11/19 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 5/9 Gold Coast Utd home matches against top-half teams.

The Gold Coast are better than their position portrays however the Mariners are on a mission and will see this as a must win to keep their run going.

Confidence is battered as far as the Gold Coast go. It doesn’t help when players don’t know what is happening with their contracts and playing futures beyond this season.

Could prove to be an arm wrestle but at even money, we will take the Mariners all day. Especially when the statistics show they should be 1.25.

Back Central Coast for 3 units @ 2.00 and lay 5.22 units @ 1.15 Rating 160

Cricket – Big Bash Final

Sat Jan 28           Perth Scorchers v Sydney Sixers
Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth 23 – 39° C

COMMENT: If we take a line on the last time these two teams played each other, the Scorchers have plenty in their favour.  The game was played at the 6s home ground at the SCG on Jan 18, only nine days ago, and the locals won the toss, batted first and won by only a single run after Mitch Starc had a blinder claiming 3 wickets (S. Marsh, M. Marsh and Collingwood) for 28 runs.

The Final will be different at the WACA in very hot conditions (39 deg) in front of a biased sold out crowd. The Scorchers would be confidant about running down the 6s this time at home, especially as Mitch Marsh went for a duck last time they met, but if the locals can win the toss and bat first, it is hard to see the Sydney team winning as they are not over strong early with batting.

We are already 7 Units up on the BBL, and do not like to invest in these games, but if you would like an interest our suggestion is to back whoever wins the toss at the team facing first has won 70% of the games. We think the current market odds are a fair representation.

Champion Profits – sports trading and analysis.

Champion Profits Trades and YTD results is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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By special guest contributor Greg Evans

The Big Bash starts on Friday and all signs point to this years competition being a betting bonanza. 8 new teams with lot of overseas players and the movement of interstate players means that previous season or even early Australian Domestic season form can not be entirely relied upon. But for those who do a bit of homework, the opportunities are there to make some profit.

What follows is my analysis and staking plans for 4 of the Big Bash teams for which I believe the market has got the tournament winner pricing wrong.

#1 The Favourite : Melbourne Renegades

One of the new Melbourne teams, taking a handful of players from the successful Victorian state side and adding some useful interstate and international imports these guys have great potential to succeed. They are the deserved competition favourites.

Key Players :-

Brad Hodge – One of the most experienced domestic players going around, Hodge has a powerful hitting game and a long track record of getting Victorian One-Day and T20 teams off to blinding starts at the top of the order. Currently has a hamstring injury, but should only miss 1 or 2 games.

Aaron Finch – Another strong opener for Victorian sides in One-Day and T20 formats. Sometimes flies under the radar, but his powerful hitting sees him with a T20 average of 37 at a strike rate of 131. His combination with Brad Hodge is historically the most successful domestic T20 opening partnership.

Nathan Reardon – Poached from Queensland, he is also under the radar but is another powerful hitter who has produced more than a few useful cameos. Form can be intermittent, but when he fires he can clear the fence with ease.

Andrew McDonald – Former Australian international player gets his chance at captaincy with the Renegades. A handy medium pace all-rounder and reasonable stroke maker, it is his game experience and dedication as a new captain (out from under Cameron Whites shadow) which will be of great value.

Shahid Afridi – International Pakistani player and, in my opinion, the best short format cricketer in the world presently. He can blast boundaries and pick up wickets with his legbreaks, he’s been injecting energy and enthusiasm into the Pakistani team for years and has the ability to turn matches. His recent form for Pakistan has been outstanding.

Abdul Razzaq – Another International Pakistani all-rounder with a powerful hitting game and a T20 average of 28 at a strike rate of 142. His fast-medium bowling is also a feature and his combination with Afridi gives the Renegades a strong international synergy.

Glenn Maxwell – Yet another solid all-rounder who is under the radar. Maxwell has been having a solid season for the Victorians and has even opened the bowling for their Ryobi side recently. Pretty handy with the bat too scoring a handy 50 off 37 balls against the touted Queensland attack to rescue the Victorians just over a week ago. He will miss the first game due to playing in the CA Chairmans XI against India, but is definitely in form and on the rise.

Shaun Tait – Poached from South Australia, the “Wild Thing” has become a professional T20 player and is renowned for his slinging thunderbolts. On his day one of the most intimidating T20 bowlers, yet at his worst he sometimes suffers from lacking confidence and/or when under pressure. However, in a new team surrounded by quality, experience and enthusiasm, he is bound to fire.

Dirk Nannes – Aged 35, the world is quick to forget that this guy is the leading wicket taker in the Big Bash and has become another T20 specialist who plays around the world. His experience and cunning will be a feature of the Renegades bowling attack.

Ryan Carters – The wicket keeper and only negative I can see in this team. I’ve watched him bat a couple of times this season and he has plenty of dot balls in him. Hopefully he bats at #9 because he has the potential to grind an innings to a halt. His keeping seems ok though.

Summary :-

The number and quality of the all-rounders in this team means that they can bat deep and not need to rely on too many specialist bowlers. Afridi and Maxwell have the spin department covered, while Tait and Nannes can spearhead a solid and experienced pace attack. The batsmen above are ALL power hitters and can clear the fence. The only weakness, in my opinion, is the wicket keeper

Staking Advice :-

Back Melbourne Renegades for 5 units at 6.50

#2 The Dark Horse : Hobart Hurricanes

One of the highly under-rated teams of the competition which is primarily comprised of the Tasmanian Ryobi Cup players, augmented by a couple of handy international and interstate players these guys are the value prospect of what may be a volatile and unpredictable competition.

Key Players :-

Phil Jacques – Poached from NSW, this opener has had some success playing for Australia and only recently returning from injury. His form this season so far has been sub-par but he is a sublime stroke-maker and if he returns to his best will be a force to reckon with.

Ricky Ponting – Ex-Australian captain and while in the past he has not been a fan of T20, he is taking part in the competition. There is every chance that he will soon be dropped from the Test team and he may end up taking his frustration out in the latter part of the Big Bash competition. Not to be under-estimated at state level.

Owais Shah – Under-rated English international with a powerful hitting game and some good recent form playing for the South African Cape Cobras, averaging 77 over his last 4 One-Day innings during November/December. Another experienced T20 player not to be under-estimated.

Tim Paine – Unfortunately appears to be ruled out of the Big Bash due to ongoing issues with his finger injury. He will be replaced by Tasmanian Tom Triffit who has some recent batting form.

Rana Naveed – Solid Pakistani all-rounder who has experience playing in the Big Bash with success in Australian conditions. Averages 19 with the ball and 21 with the bat at a strike rate of 134. Another very handy, but under-rated international cricketer.

Ben Hilfenhaus – Former Australian International swing bowler, has plenty of experience in the shorter formats of cricket and has been bowling well for Tasmania recently, earning a call up to the Prime Ministers IX in November. Generally a good opening and death bowler who is economical and can take wickets.

Xavier Doherty – Current Australian ODI spin bowler who has been made captain in the absence of Tim Paine. Good recent form for Australia and probably the form spinner of the Australian domestic season in both Sheffield Shield and Ryobi Cup. Expect him to improve on his T20 averages.

Jason Krejza – The forgotten Australian spinner who was dropped after collecting an 8 wicket haul in India. His T20 record is actually better than Doherty and he is a good wicket taking option in this format. With Doherty these two potentially form the best spin partnership in the competition.

Ben Laughlin – New to Tasmania (from Queensland), he has only played 2 Ryobi games this season, but was ultra-impressive in his last game collecting a match winning 6/53 against NSW on December 4. Not to be under-estimated.

Michael Hogan – Poached from Western Australia for this competition, Hogan has been the spearhead of the Western Australian pace attack in Sheffield Shield. Not sure how he will go in T20, but he should be dangerous opening the bowling if selected.

Summary :-

It’s easy to see why the market has under-valued this teams prospects, as there are some question marks over the batting. However, despite the loss of Tasmania’s form batsman Ed Cowan to the 6ers, there is enough class in the batting to get runs if individuals form improves. The real strength of this team is the bowling, particularly the spin twins Doherty & Krejza. On spin friendly tracks this team will be hard to beat and with a solid short-form pace attack they will be able to defend small totals. The teams core is largely the Tasmanian state team, so cohesion within the team will be good and the Tasmanians are currently equal top of the Ryobi Cup competition so are performing well and are much better than their current price. Under-estimate them at your own risk.

Staking Advice :-

Back Hobart Hurricanes for 3 units at 11.00

#3 The Faders : Brisbane Heat

On paper this team looks like one the of strongest and the Queensland state team has opened the Australian Domestic season in fine form, however with player injury, unavailability and a declining form line for Queensland this team looks like one of the poorer value prospects of the Big Bash competition.

Key Players :-

Daniel Vettori – New Zealand International and potentially one of the best spinners currently in international cricket. Unfortunately he has a hamstring injury and will likely miss the first couple of games. I have also read that he’s only signed for 6 games, so expect he will be leaving the tournament early to play for New Zealand against Zimbabwe in late January – thus I think the Brisbane Heat is unlikely to get good value from this big name signing.

Brendon McCullum – New Zealand International and “master blaster” this guy has the potential to destroy bowling attacks. However, he can be a bit of a grub and has no love for Australia so I question whether his heart is really in this. I also expect that he will be heading home to play against Zimbabwe in January, so also won’t be around for the “business end” of the competition.

Matthew Hayden – Former Aussie great and opening batsmen. No doubt in his prime he could destroy any bowling attack, but he retired from international cricket years ago and hasn’t really played for over a year. Last appearance in the IPL for the Super Kings yielded an average of just 5.8 runs over his last 7 innings. Expect him to be rusty and he may not be able to return to former glories. His greatest value to Brisbane Heat appears to be his marketing potential and as a spokesperson.

James Hopes – Queensland captain and former Australian International. Hopes is a good captain and all-rounder, with good form with his medium pace bowling, but his batting has been well below par this season. Still, he is one of the likely better performers and he likes to lead by example.

Dan Christian – Poached from South Australia, this all-rounder is on the rise. He is a poweful hitter and his fast-medium bowling is a handful. He’s in great form and is verging on a call-up to the Australian test team. Indeed this is a risk that if Australia struggles against India in the tests, or face further injuries he may well get a call up and be another quality player lost to the Brisbane Heat at the business end of the competition.

Nathan Hauritz – Poached from NSW, this former Australian spinner is returning to domestic cricket after some time in the wilderness. I’m not convinced that his head is in the right place and his recent form is a bit indifferent. I think he is another who is past his best.

Alister McDermott – Only recently added to the roster, this up and coming bowler has the pedigree and the form to impress. One of the exciting prospects for the future I expect he will be a handful in the Big Bash and what he lacks in experience he makes up for in talent. Sadly he is one of the few bright spots for this team.

Ryan Harris – Quality Australian International bowler who (when fit) is considered the leader of the Aussie bowling attack. Unfortunately he has been struggling with injury for some time and is unlikely to be fit for the 1st game and when he is fit he is likely to be selected for the Test team. Either way he is likely to be unavailable throughout the competition and is taking up space on the roster.

Ben Cutting – Up and coming fast bowler who has been a feature of the early season success of the Queensland state team. Has bordered on Australian Test team selection, however has recently succumbed to injury and has been reportedly dropped from the roster. His injury has coincided with the recent Queensland state teams decline.

Summary :-

There are a number of other “reasonable” state players in this team, such as Ryan Broad, Peter Forest, Chris Lynn and Steve Paulsen, however none of them are in consistently great form and so (like the Queensland state team) the batting is suspect. With Cutting, Harris and Vettori injured, the bowling stocks are also weak. Overall, I think this team has put too much faith in the NZ players and Haydos, whom are all significant risks of letting the team down. They will definitely win some games, probably in the mid-season when they are strongest, but I expect them to fade toward the end of the competition.

Staking Advice :-

Lay Brisbane Heat for 3 units at 7.00

#4 The Over-Rated : Sydney Thunder

Once again, on paper, this team looks like a powerhouse with plenty of star power to distract you from the lack of depth and experience that it will inevitably rely upon when the going gets tough. It is a very unbalanced team which looks like it has been thrown together to make up the desired 2nd Sydney franchise.

Key Players :-

Chris Gayle – The true “rock star” of international cricket, has become potentially the most recognisable full-time T20 professional. With his powerful hitting Gayle can almost single-handedly win games and he will no doubt win a couple for this team to justify his pay check. However, he is not a great team player, can show poor discipline and often throws his wicket away when the team needs his most and this team will struggle when he does.

David Warner – Australian International who, in my book, is one of the next great stars of the new cricket generation. Once considered a T20 specialist who can devastate bowling attacks, he has continued to improve his game and has now been selected to play for the Australian Test team – scoring a test century in only his 2nd game. Sadly for Thunder fans, he is likely to be unavailable due to Test selection and despite organisers who are using Warner in Big Bash promotional build-up, he is unlikely to be taking part in the competition beyond the first 2 games. There is also a back injury concern which may rule him out of the 1st game.

Phil Hughes – Out of form Australian Test opener, I was looking forward to him being dropped from the test team and rediscovering his attacking flair in the Big Bash, but he has withdrawn from the competition to attend “Batting Camp”.

Usman Khawaja – Another fringe Australian International who has great future potential as a classy stroke-maker. Currently in the Aussie Test team, which means he is unlikely to be available to play for the Thunder beyond the first 2 games unless he is dropped from the Test side. Also has minimal T20 experience of 7 games, averaging only 19.

Daniel Smith – Old school NSW power hitter who was thrown a lifeline early in the domestic season after being dumped. Not sure how much he will get to play and he can be a bit “hit and miss”, but if he fires he can do some damage.

Ben Dunk – Poached from Queensland (who rely heavily on him) he is also a power hitter and decent wicket keeper. Recent form has been sporadic, but he can do damage when he fires. It will be interesting to see if he opens the innings with Gayle once Warner becomes unavailable and whether that will help take pressure off him, allowing him to perform to his potential.

Doug Bollinger – Current Australian ODI player, Doug has good pace and experience in the shorter formats for both opening and death bowling. Unfortunately he is currently nursing a hamstring injury and is likely to miss the first couple of games. If he can get fit, and stay fit, he will be the likely leader of Thunders bowling attack.

Fidel Edwards – West Indian International test cricketer who leads their pace attack and can be intimidating. Has lesser experience in the shorter formats of cricket and so a question mark over his suitability for the Big Bash. At times he has been very expensive, particularly in recent tests in India where Sehwag and Gambhir took him to task. Not selected in recent ODIs for West Indies which suggests his short format form is not as good as it should be.

Summary :-

The rest of the Thunder team is made up of a combination of state players drawn from NSW and interstate. Many with questionable form and credentials. A significant number of younger players without much experience which suggests that NSW is trying to “blood” new players with this franchise. Overall I see an unbalanced team of rock stars and newbies, thrown together with a captain (Warner) who is unlikely to be available and no clear leadership credentials beyond that. I’d expect they could either start the tournament a bit dysfunctional (watch for run-outs) or with a bang if their star power clicks, but their lack of depth should be exposed mid-competition and they will flounder, maybe even fall apart with a collapse in morale toward the end.

Staking Advice :-

Lay Sydney Thunder for 5 units at 8.00

Final Summary & Advice :-

T20 can be a volatile and unpredictable game. Many punters consider betting on an individual T20 match to be the equivalent of tossing a coin, however, over the long run quality teams will prevail as match results average themselves out. The fact that Victoria has won 4 of the previous Big Bash competitions is proof of that. That is why the advised betting strategy is based on the overall tournament rather than individual games. There are 4 teams out of 8 who will make the elimination finals and so this strategy is based on the regular competition games leading up to the elimination finals. Once the regular competition games are over the intention is to “green out” on any of the top 4 teams which show a negative outcome (to remove risk) and spread the profit around from the profitable top 4 teams ahead of the elimination finals. It is not the intention (nor recommendation) to let any of the above bets “ride” through the finals.

T20 Big Bash Analysis & Staking is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Friday Night Ratings
We are covering the Moonee Valley meeting tonight.

You can access the ratings in PDF format here or in EXCEL format here.

Your interactive live page can be seen here.

And, if you’re new to the concept of betting to rated prices you can check out our ratings user guide

Friday Night Tips

6.45 Moonee Valley R1 N3, Muchos Respectos – Minimum price: $4.00, Bet: 1.25 units
This looks to be a very nice race for Muchos Respectos. His effort on Saturday behind the promising Turnitup was excellent and he was able to register the fastest 400m sectional of that race. He looks to be very well placed here back from Open to a restriced 72 and is well weighted after a handy claim for the talented Maskiell. The mile will be perfect here and he will be very hard to beat.
Danger: #1 On Face Vale

10.15 Moonee Valley R8 N12, Valuabelle – Minimum price: $2.50, Bet: 2.00 units
1, 11 and 15 all speed horses come out here which enhances the chances of in form Adelaide mare Valuabelle. Her form here at Moonee Valley has been sensational her last couple of runs and she goes up 1kg from her last start win here. She is very reliable out of the gates and will us barrier 1 for all it’s worth here. It’s worth noting that she is undefeated in five starts over 1200m and is two from two at Moonee Valley. Expect Rule will jump and run like she has been doing and be very hard to beat here yet again.
Danger: #7 Palatine

Friday Night Blackbooker
Moonee Valley R1 N3 Muchos Respectos
Produced fastest 400m sectional of the race in 22.44. Will get better over 1600m+

Metro Mail
The aim of the Metro Mail membership is to offer a membership package that gives you racing information each Saturday and Wednesday

What our Metro Mail members receive can be seen here.

Lay Betting selections
We only lay these horses at $10 and under.
Albury R3 N1 Henriette
Albury R3 N2 Curlashot
Tamworth R7 N1 Slick Sniper

Our sports betting selections can be seen below:

NRL Weekend Selections

Scott was not keen on betting in either of Friday night’s games but did wish to share a tip from the weekends games.

Manly -4.5 points bet 2 units

Scott’s video preview for Friday night’s games can be seen below:

AFL Selections

Our AFL analyst has a futures bet for you:

The Western Bulldogs seem to have been blessed with a favourable draw.

They only play last years top 4 teams once -  Stkilda, Collingwood and
Geelong. Also only play the up and comers Carlton once.

If we look at the teams they get to play twice, they are Gold Coast, West
Coast,  Essendon, Sydney and Fremantle. To even things up slightly, they
also play the Hawks twice.

With this draw, they seem to have a great chance of a top 4 finish. Whilst
still only a $2.25 chance, they seem likely to finish top 4 rather than 5th
to 8th.

Vince’s Round 1 match analysis can be seen here.

Weekend Soccer Tip

Ireland – Premier League

Good Luck to everyone

The team at Champion Picks

Ph: 1300 500 057

Horse racing and sports tips – bet like a professional.

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Here are the golf betting selections for this week from a brand new site we’re about to launch…

AFRICA OPEN

So far as the outright market is concerned, the opening Race to Dubai event of 2011 makes limited appeal at best. Rather like the South African Open just before Christmas, there is a huge gulf between the small number of world-class home players and the rest. Charl Schwartzel, Retief Goosen and Louis Oosthuizen are all trading in single figures, and in all likelihood one of that trio will prevail. After all, Schwartzel and Goosen have won the two previous renewals of this event.

Nevertheless, successful betting is about finding value rather than simply predicting winners, and I just couldn’t say that applies here. Goosen, for instance, seems to have forgotten how to win. Of the three, Schwartzel would be my pick, but nobody is going to get rich taking odds of just 6.5 about players of his stature. Granted, he won here last year, but the leaderboard was very tightly bunched and included several rank outsiders.

That lack of serious opposition, however, should present some value in alternative finishing positions markets. Only 11 players in this line-up are ranked in the world’s leading 200, with the overseas challenge looking particularly weak. The strongest Europeans are non-winners Chris Wood, Robert Rock, Gareth Maybin and the declining Darren Clarke. If previous results at East London are anything to go by, all will have to overcome disadvantage. In the last two years, three quarters of those to make the top-five were Sunshine Tour players.

With that in mind, four regular contenders at that level are recommended in the two main finishing positions markets. James Kruger let us down last time, but is worth another chance back at a course where he was third last year. He has definitely improved in the meantime, as illustrated by a lucrative Asian Tour campaign, and has precisely the type of accurate long game skills to ensure regular high finishes.

After showing nothing in Europe all summer, Branden Grace has already shown this winter that he is a completely different player in his homeland. After a win and a second place in low-grade Sunshine Tour events, he hit three good rounds out of four at the South African Open to finish 21st. He must come into this argument on the basis of second and eighth place finishes in the last two East London renewals.

Keith Horne made the top-25 in both renewals, and is worth backing to do so again. A recent eighth in the high-class Singapore Open reads very well in this company. And George Coetzee could be a decent outsider after the best season of his three year career. Coetzee has a decent reputation and showed some promise in Europe, registering five top-25s in 2010. Naturally, he is a better player at home.

Top-25 Finish

2u James Kruger @ 2.1 (Centrebet)
1.5u Branden Grace @ 2.2 (Sportingbet)
1u Keith Horne @ 2.8 (Sportingbet)

Top-10 Finish

0.7u James Kruger @ 4.3 (Centrebet)
0.6u Brendon Grace @ 4.75 (Sportingbet)
0.2u George Coetzee @ 11.0 (Tab)

HYUNDAI TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS

In terms of the most appealing markets, the complete opposite argument applies here. This PGA Tour opener is restricted to 34 players, who qualified by winning on last year’s schedule. Around a third are rank outsiders, leaving little margin for bookmaker error with regard to finishing positions. They also seem to have priced up some shrewd match bet pairings.

The outright market, however, is well worth playing. Results at Kapalua have tended to be very predictable, with Daniel Chopra the only outsider to have won here since the 1980s. Indeed five of the last seven renewals have been won by two Aussies, Geoff Ogilvy and Stuart Appleby, both of whom are back for more.
After an excellent triple-crown campaign, Ogilvy rightly starts as favourite. Along with recent winner Ernie Els, who has played some of his very best golf on this course, the front-two look pretty solid, but instead I’m going for a quartet of each-way bets at more rewarding prices.

With calm conditions forecast, scoring will be very low, so it must make sense to keep the best putters onside. The standout pick is Steve Stricker. Quite why the world number seven, the most consistent player over the past three years, should be such bigger odds than the lower-ranked favourites is beyond me. Granted, Ogilvy and Els have course credentials, but so does Stricker, who lost a play-off in 2008.

Stricker scores very well in this week’s two key stats – putting average and scrambling – and so does the reigning money list champion Matt Kuchar. He’s been relentlessly consistent for 18 months now, and while he faces a huge task trying to emulate last year’s achievements, Kuchar could still be under-rated. Last year’s third place at Kapalua bodes well for another strong week.

Anthony Kim went into the notebook as a future Kapalua winner when finishing second on his sole previous visit in 2008. If Kim could hit fairways, he’d be a genuine world-beater, but thankfully that isn’t an issue on this course. With extremely wide fairways, this par-73 layout is ideal for his ultra-attacking game. Question marks remain after injury problems last summer, but there were signs of life towards the end of the year.

Finally, a course debutant to keep that amazing run of Australian winners going. Shrewd judges have been talking up Jason Day from the moment he arrived on the PGA Tour, and the 23 year-old is one of my players to follow in 2010. Following a breakthrough title in Texas last May, Day made every cut and contended in some of the biggest events. As a very big-hitter, he looks just the type to thrive at Kapalua.

Outright (e/w 1/4 odds, first 4 places)

0.75u ew Steve Stricker @ 15.0 (Sportsbet, Sportsacumen)
0.6u ew Matt Kuchar @ 17.0 (Sportsbet, Sportsacumen)
0.3u ew Anthony Kim @ 31.0 (Sportsacumen)
0.3u ew Jason Day @ 34.0 (Sportsbet, , Sportsacumen)

Good luck
Paul Krishnamurty
Golf Betting Tips

Golf betting previews is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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South African Open

As has become tradition, the highlight of this final week of the golfing calendar is the South African Open. For it’s 100th renewal, the event is played at it’s most famous venue for the 17th time. Durban Country Club is a traditional, undulating links, positioned beside the Indian Ocean, and is frequently referred to as one of the world’s best.

It is highly likely, (roughly a 2.5 chance), that one of the leading four in the betting will win. Tim Clark, Ernie Els, Retief Goosen and Charl Schwartzel are significantly superior to the rest, apart from theoretically Louis Oosthuisen and Richard Sterne. I use that term because both have struggled of late with injury. Indeed, this event was won by such a top South African player for nine straight years until Richie Ramsay upset the formbook twelve months ago.

Picking between them barely qualifies as shrewd gambling, though, as they’re all such quality players with solid claims. Clark has won here twice, on his home course. Els and Goosen have six Open titles between them. Schwartzel was runner-up five years ago and has improved vastly since. If you’re looking for an interest, I’d opt for Els and Schwartzel, but they aren’t included in this staking plan.

Instead, the best angles here are somewhat reminiscent of the recent Australian events. In other words, backing finishing positions because this lower tour field lacks anywhere near the strength in depth that we’d usually see on the two main tours. There are no top-class Europeans here. OK, Pablo Martin won last week but he is hardly the likeliest back-to-back winner at shortish odds on a completely different course. The other Europeans at 51.0 or less are defending champ Richie Ramsay, who is plausible, very rare winner Damien McGrane, non-winner Robert Rock and rookie Thorbjorn Oleson. In fact amongst the non-South Africans, there are only nine players ranked in the world’s top-200, and nobody from the top-100.

It stands to reason therefore, that Sunshine Tour form should be particularly relevant. The African golf scene is pretty low standard fare, (perhaps the equivalent of the Challenge Tour with fewer competitors?), but these players will at least enjoy home advantage. They will also usually know this course inside out, as it hosts the Suncoast Classic every year. One wouldn’t have thought that reaching the top-25 here would be a huge ask for the best from the home tour.

All this week’s bets therefore, involve four such candidates along with one European outsider. I am having some bets in the outright market, if only because the place odds are so big. JAMES KINGSTON, for instance, simply has to be overpriced at 34.0. He’s finished no worse than ninth in the last three Opens to be held at Durban, and made the top-ten last week at Leopard Creek, where his record is much less impressive. The clinching factor for me is that Kingston topped the greens in regulation there, as that particular stat is expected to be of the utmost importance around this positional layout. He is also recommended in the top-10 market.

JBE KRUGER is recommended in all three markets. This guy has impressed in previous co-sanctioned events as a very accurate player, and he too made the top-ten last week. He’s only coming to the end of his fourth season as a pro, which has been by far his best to date. Kruger has been first or second eight times this year, many of which have come on the Asian Tour, which represents a higher standard than the South African equivalent.

ADILSON DA SILVA and JEAN HUGO both look enormous value on their regional and course form. The former won his second title on this course just six weeks ago, and also finished third last year. Hugo can’t quite match that but has finished second and third in the past two Suncoast renewals, and has won twice since September. In particular, I cannot see how bookies can justify odds of 3.5 or better in the top-25 market about these course experts.

Finally, that European outsider is MICHAEL HOEY. He has become fairly consistent in Europe, if only rarely contending. The fact he’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts reads well at this much lower level, and he does have some regional form having finished runner-up in the 2009 Africa Open. His finest hour came when winning another Race to Dubai event, the 2009 Estoril Open on another links course, Oitavos Dunes.

Good Luck!

ADVISED BETS

Outright

0.3u ew James Kingston @ 34.0 (Sportsbet)
0.2u ew Jbe Kruger @ 61.0 (Centrebet)
0.1u ew Adilson Da Silva @ 81.0 (General)
0.1u ew Michael Hoey @ 126.0 (Sportsbet)

Top-25 Finish

2pts JBE Kruger @ 2.75 (Sportsbet)
1.5pts Adilson Da Silva @ 3.5 (Sportsbet)
1pt Jean Hugo @ 3.75 (Sportsbet)
1pt Michael Hoey @ 4.0 (Centrebet)

Top-10 Finish

1pt James Kingston @ 3.75 (Sportingbet)
0.5pt JBE Kruger @ 6.0 (Centrebet)

South African Open golf preview is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Click on the following link for an audio preview of the Australian Open:

Outright

1u win Robert Allenby @ 9.0 (Sportingbet)

There are few tournaments in world golf in which the formbook is likelier stand up than the Australian PGA. All of the last six champions begun the week amongst the market leaders, and there are four very strong candidates to keep that run going. However, while it would be easy to construct a case for backing any of them, such a strategy would be too expensive and offer dubious value, especially as the front three are all in single figures. So with all due respect to Geoff Ogilvy and Adam Scott, they are excluded in favour of PGA specialist Robert Allenby.

Allenby has won this title four times already, twice at Coolum including last year. Granted, he was in better form twelve months ago, having just won the Nedbank Challenge, but there is enough in his recent record to expect a typically strong showing, such as a pair of top-fives during October in competitive PGA Tour events. Furthermore, with the recent wild weather apparently set to hang around for a few more days, Allenby’s superb ball-striking skills should come to the fore.

0.75pts ew John Senden @ 14.0 (Sportingbet)

The other ‘big-gun’ amongst my picks, John Senden will be hard to keep out of the places. Of all the Aussie triple-crown venues, Coolum has been Senden’s favourite, with top-six finishes in five of the last eight years. He’s never entered a PGA Championship in better form, having made the top-15 in six of his last seven US starts, and maintaining that good run with fourth in last week’s Open. I expect greens in regulation to be the most important stat this week, and nobody in this field has enjoyed a better year so far as that stat is concerned, ranking third on the PGA Tour.

0.25pt ew Nick O’Hern @ 34.0 (Sportingbet, Sportsbet)

As the scene of both his top-class titles, Coolum is surely Nick O’Hern’s favourite track. His last ten visits all produced top-20 finishes, including six top-tens. This year’s inflated odds are the consequence of missing the entire year with injury, but last week’s scorecard showed a player improving as the week went on. He can easily be forgiven shooting an opening 75 on grounds of rustiness, and considering that poor start, 24th was a decent result. In addition to this outright punt, Nick represents great value in both top-25 and top-10 markets. He’s made the former mark on every one of his last 21 Australian starts, and the latter on 13 of them. Clearly if he is genuinely recovered and on the comeback trail, these odds are wrong.

0.1pt ew Michael Campbell @ 151.0 (Sportingbet)

Campbell is particularly interesting at a huge price, after apparently finding some form in the first two triple-crown events. The former US Open and World Matchplay champion has been a player to avoid at all costs for the past couple of years, as not for the first time, his career has sunk into freefall. However, he’s come back from oblivion twice before, once around the turn of the century and again to become a major champion. He’s still only 41, young enough to achieve  much, much more in this game.

Top-25 Finish (All listed prices with Centrebet, check Sportingbet and Sportsbet for alternative quotes)

3pts Nick O’Hern @ 2.0 (Sportingbet)
1pt Kieran Pratt @ 4.0 (Sportingbet)
1pt Bobby Gates @ 4.5 (Sportingbet)
1pt Michael Campbell @ 4.0 (Sportingbet)

Top-10 Finish

1pt Nick O’Hern @ 4.25 (Sportingbet)

In addition to finishing positions bets on O’Hern and Campbell, two talented young players are advised in the top-25 market. Last week’s pick Kieron Pratt is a slightly bigger price this time, despite landing that top-25 bet. Indeed Pratt fought back well after a poor start, and has yet to finish outside this zone during his short professional career.

Bobby Gates could prove the best overseas candidate. The young Floridian arrived on the Nationwide Tour this season with a promising reputation, but is still yet to take that US tour by storm. However his form in Australasia is much better. Gates won January’s New Zealand Open, finished third in the Moonah Classic and performed well in 12th last week against stronger company.

Good punting

Paul Krishnamurty

Australian PGA Championship betting preview is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Wired Magazine has a fascinating article on how a big Wall Street firm is using algorithms and 21st century technology to revolutionise the sports betting industry.

Cantor Gaming bought out the biggest sports statistics and analysis firm in the States and has written a Wall Street inspired computer program to evaluate sporting events both pre-game and in-running.

This is an article well worth reading.

Sports not stocks: Wall Street firm hits Las Vegas is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Group A

France 2.08 (Odds, group winners)

Mexico 4.50

Uruguay 4.80

South Africa 8.00

You have to forget about all the fancy names in the French squad. As a team they have not impressed for ages and it is correct to say that they are in the World Cup thanks to the huge officiating blunder in the deciding game with Eire. The French coach Domenech never managed to get his team playing up to its full potential in the qualifiers and I cannot recall when a coach was as unpopular in his own country as this poor Domenech fellow. Player for player though, France are in a different, much stronger category than the other three group participants. It seems like Domenech will opt for a more offensive formation in S Africa. A step in the right direction.

Mexico got rid of Sven G Eriksson in the very last minute and under Aguirre they have improved vastly. Aguirre is an excellent coach and his Mexico play some technical football, clever with the ball, but like many other sides they lack real fire power. Young strikers, dos Santos, C Vela and Javier Hernandez (he has just joined M United), but they also include veterans like R Marquez, Franco and C Blanco.

If Mexico have inexperienced strikers, it is not the case with Uruguay. In D Forlan and L Suarez they have two established sharp shooters and the Palermo forward Cavani is also a pretty good striker. Uruguay seldom succeed on this level. Why? Sloppy defence, I guess, but both Godin and Lugano are decent defenders.

S Africa, the host nation, failed to impress during the Conf. Cup last year and you always wondered where their goals would come from. Benni McCarthy was a reserve for Blackburn and then he joined West Ham, reserve again, and this once quite good striker is probably not the most confident player these days. Key player, S Pienaar of course. Home advantage has always been tremendously significant in previous Championships and I am sure that S Africa will fancy their chances in this extremely tight group. France and S Africa for this writer.

Group B

Argentina 1.50

Nigeria 6.00

Greece 9.00

South Korea 13.00

Looks easy for Argentina. I will not make too much fuzz about the Maradona factor. I take it for granted that he has a managerial staff at his disposal and that they are no fools. Argentina will be all about their great players, not Maradona. Which side has offensive players like L Messi, D Milito. Higuain, C Tevez and Kun Aguero. Too many maybe, but Argentina will be my pick as World Cup winners. The odds are 10.00!

How will the Swedish coach L Lagerback succeed as the Nigeria boss? Well, I do not think that the Nigeria players have met a guy like Lagerback. Although he had some fruitful years coaching Sweden he finally bored us all to death. Will the Nigeria players listen to his words, all about organisation and defensive thinking? This I very much doubt.

Greece belong to the boring category, but at least there is an understanding between the players and their coach Rehhagel after many, successful years together. Rehhagel has been severely criticised in Greece for his unwillingness to include some new blood in his side. I say that the critics are right.

S Korea could struggle for goals, but their two “Englishmen” Park Ji-Sung and Lee Chung-Yong will do all that they can to prove me wrong, providing for the Monaco striker Park.

Argentina for sure and then it is anybody’s guess which side will join them in the next round. For this writer it will be between Nigeria and S Korea. Maybe I prefer S Korea, better odds.

Group C

England 1.33

U S A 5.70

Slovenia 14.00

Algeria 23.00

England can have few complaints. You do not find an easier group than this one. OK, I find myself often underestimating USA, but England are not likely to make the same mistake. England reached the quarter finals in their last two Championships, managed by Sven G Eriksson and the way I see it, England will be at least 50% better under Capello. Their qualifying campaign impressed hugely, winning in superior fashion a difficult group with both Ukraine and Crotia well beaten. Frank Lampard is a case for concern. He is too often anonymous playing for England. Well, he often disappears in the big Chelsea games as well. They do not need Lampard at his best to win this group, but to win the World Cup they need him in top shape.

USA defeated Spain in the Confederation Cup last season, and lost the final to Brazil, after being 2-0 up. It all happened in S Africa of course. This highly competitive side will most likely join England in the next round.

Slovenia won against Hiddink’s Russia in the play offs. They lost 1-2 in Russia, but won deservedly 2-0 in the return leg in Slovenia. Surely we would not have found 14.00 on the Russian group win, if they had been here. It is tempting to say that Slovenia will struggle in this World Cup, but the fact is that they played some strong games in their qualifying group, and they gave Hiddink a reminder, that he is human after all.

Algeria lack the big players, especially offensively. I mean a striker like Ghezzal, he is always number two to Maccarone, both playing for Siena. Several of the Algerian players play in France. Algeria defeated Ivory Coast in the African Cup this year, but lost the final to Egypt 0-4. I expect no success for Algeria in S Africa. England and USA to qualify.

Group D

Germany 1.91

Serbia 4.41

Ghana 6.00

Australia 10.00

Serbia should have a decent chance of winning this group. This version of Germany is not my kind of team and the odds on Germany as World Cup winners are a joke (15.00). You may as well bet on ABBA making a comeback. At the same time you can actually get 67.00 on Serbia as winners.

Their winning chances are as good, or as poor, you decide, but surely you feel better backing prices like 67.00. Anyway I like this Serbian national side. Impeccable in defence, excellent players like Krasic and Stankovic on their midfield and the underrated Zigic upfront. Not to forget Jovanovic. Stankovic is a bit of an enigma. Like Frank Lampard he often underperforms playing for his country.

Low’s Germany can be relied upon as a collective unit, as always one must say, but they are wanting offensively. Show me a German striker in form! Do not get me wrong, Germany have not turned into a bad side over night and they can of course win this group, but they are no Championship contenders this time around. They lack flair and true individual quality in their side. Robben, Olic and Ribery, all foreigners, made the difference for Bayern Munich. Still football is a team sport and Germany are never easily beaten, that is almost like a universal truth. In the absence of Ballack the experienced duo Schweinsteiger and P Lahm are key players for Germany. Azil and Khedira promise a lot, remains to be seen how they will be able to handle the World Cup pressure.

Ghana will not be able to call on their ace M Essien. There is no doubt in my mind that Essien is one of the two-three strongest Chelsea players and in a class of his own in this Ghana side. What a blow for Ghana!

Australia lost to Italy on a late penalty in 2006 and Italy went on to win the title. I predict a tough tournament for the Aussies. They belong to the teams that lack strong strikers, but they have versatile midfielders like T Cahill and B Holman that can play in forward positions. Serbia and Germany to go through.

Group E

Holland 1.62

Denmark 5.50

Cameroon 6.08

Japan 19.95

Surely the Dutch will win this group. They have one of the most talented sides around and I predict that they will start this tournament on a high. Lasting the distance could be a problem for Holland, but that is another question.

Denmark dominated their qualifying group ahead of Portugal, Sweden and Hungary. They do not look that good on paper, but they impressed as a collective in their qualifiers, winning both in Portugal and Sweden. Simon Kjaer, the Palermo defender, suffered an injury recently and although he is included in the Danish squad, he is in grave danger of missing the tournament. If this will be the case, quite a set back for the Danes.  As the odds indicate, it will be between Denmark and Cameroon, joining Holland in the next round.

Cameroon was my big idea in 1990. They won their qualifying group ahead of Argentina, Romania and Russia and as group winners they paid 67.00. Those were the good old days. In modern times Cameroon have mostly disappointed, but maybe they will have some advantage this time, as these Championships will be played on the African continent. I am not so sure about that. It is pretty cold in S Africa at this time of the year, is it not?

The Japanese players are likely to work extremely hard, but football has more to it than running and Japan generally falter in front of enemy goal. Seems like they have gone down in quality, basically outclassed by S Korea recently. Holland and Denmark to the next round.

Group F

Italy 1.53

Paraguay 4.28

Slovakia 8.50

New Zealand 85.50

Slow starters they may be, but really, Italy should prove the bookies right by winning this easy group. When it is time for any Championships there are almost always good reasons for respecting Italy. It is not Donadoni who is coaching Italy this time, it is the old fox Lippi and I expect him to get the best out of this Italian side. They do not look like World Cup winners however, as quite a few of their players are passed their (Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Pirlo, Camoranesi to name a few). Very likely group winners.

Roque Santa Cruz, Cardozo and Barrios, all pretty good strikers, when fit and there was nothing wrong with the Paraguayan defence either in their qualifying games. Maybe this Paraguayan side should not be underestimated.

First time around on this level for Slovakia and their task is pretty straight forward – finish ahead of Paraguay. Hamsik is certainly a great up and coming player, but he cannot do it all on his own. Hopefully for Slovakia Skrtel will be in perfect shape for this tournament. He has not been able to play much for Liverpool this season, troubled by some persistent injury.

If N Zealand are lucky they will be able to pick up a draw from one of their matches, but that is about it. No doubts at all, Italy and Paraguay should advance.

Group G

Brazil 1.62

Portugal 4.60

Ivory Coast 5.20

N Korea 133.00

Tough group, but no doubt, Brazil deserve to be the hot favourites to finish first. Dunga’s Brazil play more European these days, whatever that means. I mean that they are not playing the samba football of old and that their defence marshalled by Lucio and Maicon is not their weakest part these days. A player like Dani Alves for instance, the outstanding Barcelona defender, may not find a place in the starting line up. Brazil hope that Kaka will find his form again and that the Sevilla striker Luis Fabiano will be 100% fit for the Championships. All sides fear Brazil and they are right to do so.

Portugal were in big trouble in their qualifying group, but late on they were able to get their necessary points. I have to point out that they never impressed and this I know for certain, as they played in the same group as Sweden. C Ronaldo, their ace, has the same problems as Lampard and Stankovic. He rarely plays on the same high level for his country.

Ivory Coast, the only really strong African side, coached by Sven G Eriksson, what a combination. You know Sven,he never lost a match for England in the World Cup, but was unlucky twice in the penalty shoot outs. What I know is that Sven has already started to work on the I Coast defensive line. They need to improve their defence, or it will not matter what Drogba will be up to upfront. Sven never liked facing Portugal, when he was leading England. It was Scolari’s Portugal, but could be that Portugal will hurt him again. I have to admit however that I look forward to watching this I Coast side. Either they will buy Sven’s ideas or not, you never really know.

North Korea, the mystery team, will probably play some ultra defensive football, hoping for a 0-0 result somewhere. The Greek coach called N Korea a well prepared and disciplined outfit after their 2-2 encounter. In that particular game N Korea controlled much of the game. Says something about Greece? Still, it was just a friendly. Brazil and Ivory Coast will be my choice.

Group H

Spain 1.29

Chile 6.40

Switzerland 14.00

Honduras 66.50

Although not my favourites, Spain are most peoples choice to win the World Cup 2010.I just want to say that I thoroughly expect the Spaniards to win this group. They can be without quite a few of their regulars and still be able to defeat the other group participants.

Chile are probably stronger than most people believe. They have visited Europe quite often these last two years and they have been on the winning sides more than once against strong European teams, like Denmark and Eire, both away fixtures in 2009. Best side in S America, apart from the big two of course. Well, they were actually runners up to Brazil in the S American qualifying group.

Switzerland are one of the few countries that have actually lost to Luxembourg, in an important game, a World Cup home qualifier. To their credit Hitzfeld’s Switzerland recovered from that astonishing set back and here they are in S Africa. Cannot say that I am impressed by their squad, but Hitzfeld is a good team builder.

Honduras can be backed when they are playing on home territory and their first start on this big international scene looks like a mission impossible. They are not a side that play defensive football and I fear that they will be severely punished. Spain and Chile to progress.

Favourites to win the cup are Spain (5.25) and Brazil (6.00). We can include England (7.50) and Argentina (10.00) among the favourites as well. I am not prepared to make big case against Spain, but is it not possible that they have peaked? Look at Barcelona. Last season Xavi and Iniesta dominated for Barcelona, but this season their success was almost entirely down to the Messi genius and of course, he is from Argentina.
It is worth remembering that Spain lost to USA last year in the Confederations Cup, taking place in South Africa. Maybe they do not like playing there, maybe it is too cold, but the fact is that Spain were poor there a year ago. History has a tendency of repeating itself.
Brazil are worth all the respect in the world, but If I have done my home work correctly, they will be up against Holland in the quarter final and I assure you, if this match does take place, it can go either way.

Although Argentina will be my chief call I am not happy with all the ingredients in their side. Sebastian Veron on their midfield, I could do without and Demichelis means trouble in their defence from time to time. Their offence however is simply the best. For now it looks like Messi will be joined by Higuain and C Tevez in their front line, but how do you keep a player like D Milito on the bench? Kun Aguero I can see performing great things, coming on as a substitute.

If I have got it right Argentina will be in the quarter final without any problems. England will face Germany or Serbia after the group phase and such a fixture smells potential trouble, but should they win this match, I promise that England will go a long way in these Championships.
Holland pay 13.00 as winners. They will probably look like winners to start with, but I fear that they will run out of steam sooner or later. Maybe after their great, (possible) win against Brazil, but then they will of course be in the semi final.

First and foremost Argentina to win the World Cup (10.00).

Chris.

Preview courtesy of Tip-Ex.

2010 World Cup betting is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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