horse racing

Second up syndrome or myth?

by David May 4, 2012
My previous two articles focused on first up horses, so today it makes sense to follow that up with a close look at horses racing second up. The question of course is whether the ‘second up syndrome’ does actually exist, or is it just another punting myth?Profitability by runs from a spell

Let’s start by looking at all runners in the first five in the market for the period 2009-2011.

A one per-cent difference in profit on turnover is not significant, but the fact is 2nd uppers were definitely not a bad betting proposition. Every horse and every race should be assessed on its merits, however as a very general rule the alleged 2nd up syndrome means nothing from a punting perspective.

But let’s dig deeper and focus solely on second uppers and for the purposes of this exercise I have excluded horses with just one career start, because I wanted to only assess those racing second up from a spell.

Last start finishing position
How important was the horse’s first-up finishing position? It turns out that rather than a first-up win taking a lot out of the horse and possibly indicating a next start bounce, it was actually a positive.

Track condition

What about today’s track condition? Is it better to be racing second up on a firm track or one with some give?

Well the answer is it doesn’t really make much difference.

Some other factors I looked at where the results didn’t prove to be significant one way or another were the horse’s age and sex, today’s distance and the first up track condition.

Trainers

In our series on first uppers it was interesting to note just how much punters over-rate first up horses from some of the big stables. Some of the biggest names in the Australian training ranks had poor first-up records in terms of their results for punters, but does this carry through to second uppers as well?

A huge disparity there. Waller clearly gives his horses a couple of runs to reach peak fitness and from listening to his interviews at trackwork and pre-race he has made that strategy well known.

Waterhouse runners improve a lot second up (from -19% POT to -2%).

But the biggest standout was Peter Moody whose runners go from -12% first-up to +12% second up.

Summary

The stats show that the alleged second up syndrome is yet another punting myth, so don’t be put off if the horse you fancy has only had one run from a spell.

How to get the most out of race replays

by darryn May 1, 2012

How to get the most out of race replays

By Todd Burmester

A lot of work is often done by punters pre-race to determine selections, but post race analysis is often overlooked.

As I provide the Sydney Racing Review each week, I wanted to provide some insight into the importance I see in reviewing race replays and how to do it effectively.

On any given race day, you’ll hopefully set out with a plan of what you’re going to back, so at the end of the day, it makes sense to review how that plan went. Which of your selections were successful? Which weren’t? And why?

Some of these answers can be found in the race replays, that you may not notice in the live running of the race. This applies not only to your selections but also to the other runners in the race. One thing I will say from the outset however, is that there can be a big trap in watching video replays and that is, there is always a tendency to concentrate on runners that are “flying home”. It’s natural, they are captured by your eye and often mentioned by the race caller. Purely sticking to these runners, is likely to have you come up with a horse that will start favourite next start and may let you down again and again. We all know there are horses that are professionals at running on.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that you should ignore horses flashing home, in fact, I place a lot of emphasis on horses who are finishing their race off strongly but to quantify these sorts of runs, it’s imperative to consider the pace of the race. It is not always those horses who are “flashing home” that are the ones finishing their race off best.

Firstly, what I will do when watching a video replay, is watch the race in its entirety at “full speed”. On this run through, I will get a feel for what the pace of the race was like and whether the field settled in basically the order I expected them to. ie. Did the horse lead that was expected to, did any horses miss the start etc. Also during this run through, I will note any horses that were trapped wide, and also where the eventual winner of the race was positioned in the run.

By the time I watch the race for a second time, I now have an idea of the following.

  • Was there a strong pace, which meant the backmarkers may come into it, or was the pace slow meaning the leaders were likely to kick?
  • Which horses were wide and therefore I need to keep a closer eye on in the second run through to see how they coped with the wide run.
  • Did the winner have a cushy run (for example on the fence behind the pace) which may have flattered it?
  • Were any horses racing in a position that wasn’t predicted prior to the race (i.e. was a known leader ridden off the speed) and how did these runners cope with that run
  • Did any miss the start or seem to get interfered with that cost them badly and how were they ridden after that? Sometimes beaten margins can be exaggerated once the horse is out of winning contention.

The next step is to watch the race again, this time using the “pause” button to make more specific notes on what is going on based on the observations from the first run through.

By the time I have watched the second run through, I now have some notes about horses that ran particularly well, and those that were seemingly disappointing.
For example, if a short priced favourite had an easy run in front and is a known leader, but in this race stops in the straight, I will note down that it was either disappointing or perhaps injured. If another runner is three wide on the speed but keeps going to only be beaten a couple of lengths, I will likely note it down as a good run. And for those temping ones that are “flashing home” I will decide based on the pace, and the run they had in transit, whether that was a good effort or perhaps they were entitled to do so. Horses that are either keeping going in front off a strong pace, or running on off a slow pace are of particular interest, as they have potentially done what they are not entitled to do.

I will then take a third run through of the race, this time concentrating on smaller sections of the race. For example, if a horse is seemingly interfered with, I will have a look at whether this truly did cost them ground, or I may go back and look at various distance markers in the race to take note of when horses started to make their runs. As an example of this, if a horse is asked to take off at the 600m, that is a long run for home, so if it is able to sustain that length of run (even if beaten a small distance), it’s a positive. On the other hand, if a horse takes off a fair way out, and then is beaten after 200m of making its run, it is a sign that it is either not fit, or needs to be ridden a bit differently.

To wrap things up, I look to summarise the race in terms of what took place, and compare that against what perhaps should have taken place based on the circumstances of pace and “in running” positions. Often, the horse that is wide on the speed but kept going to the line is missed by many in favour of the one who flashed home from the back after an easy run. Identifying this sort of thing is the value in watching race replays.

 

Weekend racing reviews – Saturday 28th April

by darryn April 30, 2012

Randwick reviewBy Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st    Angel Of Mercy   Craig Williams
2nd   Bound To Blush   James McDonald
3rd    Hallowell Belle     Nash Rawiller

Bound To Blush was the expected leader here and found the front fairly easily, with Hallowell Belle sitting outside of it. Detours sat on the fence behind the leader and Ever The Same secured a good run, one out and one back. The eventual winner, Angel Of Mercy was getting a nice run 5th, three back on the fence. Hallowell Belle was asked to come after the leader in the straight but didn’t really ping. Perhaps this was a result of a lot of racing for her recently. Ever The Same tried to run on, but at the same time Angel Of Mercy had got the split and taken advantage of an easy run in transit. She sprinted well for a good win. Bound To Blush kept on ok, also after an easy run and there was not a lot to say about the rest.

Follow: Angel Of Mercy

Race 2

1st    Fat Al                       Nash Rawiller
2nd   Ambidexter                Kerrin McEvoy
3rd    Rekindled Alliance     Craig Williams

Huegill missed the start hopelessly here whilst the short priced favourite Fat Al was ridden with clear intent to lead. He did so after about 100m. Devonshire Duke and Ambidexter disputed second for a few hundred metres, with Ambidexter eventually finding the spot outside the leader. Rawiller slowed them up nicely on the leader and he seems to be the horse with the most upside in this race. Horses such as Iggy Pop and more so, Rekindled Alliance and Isopach found themselves a good way off the lead. The later two were second last and last with Rekindled Alliance taking off 600m from home to try and get into it. In the straight it appeared for a few strides that Ambidexter would go past Fat Al but once he wound up he came away for a clear win. Whilst that was going on, Rekindled Alliance had run away from the rest of the field into third, but he is a costly conveyance. Isopach made reasonable ground after being given no chance due to the slow pace and can find a suitable race.

Follow: Isopach

Race 3

1st    Pierro            Nash Rawiller
2nd   Dear Demi     James McDonald
3rd    Tatra             Tommy Berry

Raceway led as expected with Pierro outside him in the early stages. Tatra then came around them and took on Raceway, as we saw in The Sires. This gave Pierro a lovely run in third and really it was only ever a matter of how far. In the straight he gapped them, with Dear Demi running on well from the back and Tatra doing a good job to hold on for third. All credit to the winner, but I never get carried away with two-year-olds until I see them come back and do it as a three-year-old, many fail to as their peers mature further and learn more about the game.

Follow: Dear Demi, Tatra

Race 4

1st    Skyerush       Blake Shinn
2nd   Fibrillation      Brenton Avdulla
3rd    Divorces        Kerrin McEvoy

Plenty of them disputed the early lead here, with Fill The Page, as expected, eventually taking up the running from Miss Keepsake. Crafty Irna was wide all the way here and pushed even wider on the turn. Skyerush, which won the race, was a fair way back, but getting an economical run in transit. At the 200m mark you didn’t really know where to look, with plenty of chances spread across the track, but the gap was appearing for Skyerush, who accelerated nicely through it for victory. The run of Fibrillation off a months break was good to run second and Crafty Irna, although becoming costly, has to be given another chance after the wide run and not being beaten far on the line. Miss Keepsake was beaten at the 200m mark and I can’t find any excuses for her.

Follow: Fibrillation, Crafty Irna

Race 5

1st    Atlantic Jewel   Michael Rodd
2nd   Rain Affair        Chris Reith
3rd    Ofcourseican    Kathy O’Hara

Rain Affair showed his customary speed to lead easily, with Rodd electing to have Altantic Jewel right there in second placing. Happy Zero and Albert The Fat were the next two in running. Rain Affair took off before the turn which meant Atlantic Jewel was chasing. There will be those that say she was not impressive but in my opinion this was an excellent win. She was stepping up in class and made to chase a very good horse and she was never really in doubt in the straight, despite a smaller margin today. Rain Affair tried hard as always and the runs of Albert The Fat and particularly Ofcourseican were very good, but simply in another class.

Follow: Ofcourseican

Race 6

1st    Niwot                    Dwayne Dunn
2nd   Efficient                 Michael Rodd
3rd    Once Were Wild    Jim Cassidy

Solid Billing would have been expected by most to find the front and did so, with Once Were Wild sitting second. Within no time at all, both Permit and Niwot had found lovely positions on the fence, not too far from the pace. Our Serena was about the only one that covered any extra ground early. They strung out a bit in the middle stages and at the 1000m Permit was in all sorts. This was later put down to a problem with a shoe. Just before the 600m the runs started to come from the back, most noticeable was Precedent who took off from last. Efficient had also started to make his move from well back. Niwot due to being positioned well in running got to wait until the corner before coming out to make a run and this was the difference in the end. He outstayed the other two whose long runs told on them. Once Were Wild, that was on the speed all the way ran well for third and realistically the rest just plugged. Drunken Sailor that was in the market never came into it and perhaps 3200m is not really his go, as he has only won once over it in 8 attempts. The usual suspects such as Nextanix and Anudjuwan were running on – surprise surprise!

Follow: Once Were Wild

Race 7

1st    More Joyous       Nash Rawiller
2nd   Manighar             Damien Oliver
3rd    Secret Admirer    Brenton Avdulla

The More Joyous Stakes – that’s what this race should have been called such was the impressive nature of her win. Rawiller took the initiative to take up the running and she was never going to be beaten from there on. Rekindled Interest settled outside of her, with Jimmy Choux on the fence in third. They pretty much stayed in their order until the 600m when the runs came. Americain was off from the back and that got Rekindled Interest going. They both basically moved up to More Joyous before the turn. Americain was gone as quickly as he started his run and I am not sure what to make of him from here. The bolter Speediness got a run through on the fence and ran the race of its life, although beaten a fair way late in the peace, whilst Rangirangdoo and Secret Admirer did their best to come down the outside. It was all academic, as More Joyous had bolted away. Manighar didn’t have the clearest run early in the straight, but proved his great form by running a clear second and wins the race bar running into a freak on the day. Jimmy Choux does not appear to have come up this campaign.

Follow: Manighar, Speediness in something easier.

Race 8

1st    Tiger Tees     Chris Reith
2nd   Pinwheel       Kerrin McEvoy
3rd    Neeson         Michael Rodd

Tiger Tees showed his customary barrier brilliance to take up an early lead. Dee’N'Gee was outside of him and Neeson was trapped three wide. Latin News was back along the fence with Nobby Snip one off the fence, but didn’t really look comfortable between horses in running. Hood tracked closer to the outside rail than the inside the whole way and dropped out badly. Pinwheel was in what seemed like a hopeless position on the turn, but got inside runs to flash home and only narrowly miss. Tiger Tees just kept defying them in the straight and is an under rated horse with a good record. Neeson was very good after being wide, whilst Riva De Lago again confirmed its position in the “sack book”. Nobby Snip worked home ok once clear of horses and can be forgiven for this run.

Follow: The first three were all very good, forgive Nobby Snip. Continue laying Riva De Lago this campaign.

Specials from the meeting: Angel Of Mercy, Speediness, Pinwheel, Neeson.

—————————————————–
Caulfield review compiled by Rick Wiiliams

Race 1 – Monjon Security Handicap  

PLACEMENT            Katelyn Mallyon    $4.60
TURNITUP                Linda Meech         $4.60
FOLDING GEAR       Ben Melham         $3.20F

Placement continued her good run of form with another excellent ride from Mallyon. They jumped well and she settled in the lead and was able to get a pretty easy time of it from in front. A few were making a couple of moves throughout but it wasn’t enough to catch her when she kicked away from them on the turn. Turnitup hit the line well and Folding Gear who didn’t look suited at all ran on well for third.

Worth noting: Forgive Folding Gear, he was down in distance, up in weight and on unsuitable ground.

Race 2 – Dr. Michael Irlicht Handicap        

GALBRAITH              Katelyn Mallyon    $4.60
GENERAL TRUCE     Ben Knobel          $3F
BROKEN                  Dean Yendall        $5

Galbraith broke through again and continued to perform really well over the short trip. He camped off of the back of Fab Fevola who led them (as he does) but he was unable to finish off. Another good ride by Mallyon who stalked them on Galbraith and he was too good. General Truce is the best horse in the race but he has been up for too long and wasn’t at his best. He needs a spell. Broken is a handy horse who was off of a long break and he ran well into third.

Worth noting: Happy to follow Broken in suitable, more than capable horse in the right race.

Race 3 – TROA Supports National Jockeys Trust Handicap  

VATICAN                 Billy Egan            $7
ZAMORAR              Jake Duffy            $2.30F
COUNTER SIGN      Katelyn Mallyon   $11

All the talk was about Zamorar who was coming off of a good run in Adelaide and had some Sepoy form in a previous campaign. He ran well but was nailed late by the fast finishing Vatican who had the sit on him and finished off with an excellent sprint. It was a nice win by Vatican who is a specialist 1000m horse. Tres Vite got caught wide and had no luck at any stage from the wide gate. She beat Vatican the start before and can be forgiven.

Worth noting: Follow Tres Vite, best horse in the race.

Race 4 – National Jockeys Trust Redoute’s Choice Stakes

WALES        Steven King         $21
DOMINANT   Andrew Mallyon   $9.50
MAURY        Danny Nikolic      $3F

Maury had the exposed form and a couple of good wins and led for most of the way but was no match for the impressive and well bred debut winner Wales (Redoutes Choice/Valkyrie Diva). He settled back in the field and came with a big strong run and was too good for Dominant. Pretty impressive to win on debut like that over 1200m and Wales looks to have a bright future. Dominant protested but it was dismissed.

Worth noting: Maury had been dominant before so the first two might be pretty handy

Race 5 – PFD Food Services Handicap    

LUCKY PENNY      Linda Meech   $4.80
TAI TAI TESS         Craig Newitt     $9.50
ROSE PATTERN    Damian Lane    $41

Lucky Penny won well on debut in a maiden by 8L and was being asked to take the next step, straight to Saturday grade at Caulfield. She settled just off of the leaders and enjoyed a good ride from Meech before heading into the straight and running away from them. Very impressive performance at her second race start. Tai Tai Tess did well to run into second with the big weight, she had 5.5kg more than the winner and was beaten 2.75L.

Worth noting: Follow the first two over the line

Race 6 – Ranvet Handicap    

ZABISCO               Nicholas Hall        $6
SIGNOR SOCKS    Dean Yendall        $41
THE ZEEBAC         Lincoln Coffey       $101

Looked a hard race on paper but the market pretty much got it right with the winner Zabisco. He looked at home when he was able to settle off of the speed and come with a strong run down the middle late to get the money. Good ride by Hall who rode a treble for the day. He looks a horse that has taken the stable a little while to work out. Signor Socks and The Zeebac did well to finish second and third at big odds.

Worth noting: Be a little wary with the form through this race

Race 7 – LUCRF Super Handicap

THE NIGHT’S HOT   Nicholas Hall       $5
MANILA JEWEL      Ben Knobel         $6
IPIOGA                   Jake Noonan       $31

The Night’s Hot got a city win on her resume when she finished too strong for them with a run from back in the field. Again another great ride by N Hall who seems to be one of the best at timing his runs from back in the field. Manila Jewel gave another good run, I prefer her on dry so she is going well and close to a win. Ipioga was a long way away from the first two and ran into third. It was one of the weaker fields we have seen at Caulfield on a Saturday.

Worth noting: Not much to get excited about here, follow Manila Jewel.

Race 8 – The Louise Cooper Plate

BONNIE MAC             Nicholas Hall     $2.80F
PRINCESS NARINE    Mick Price         $8.50
SUSSURO                 Jake Noonan      $10

Bonnie Mac won well at the provincials and bought her form straight to Caulfield with a super win. Again a good ride from Hall. She camped just off  them and when they straightened it was pretty clear from early in the straight that nothing was able to go with her and she outsprinted them and won very well. Princess Narine did well running into second but and Sussuro worked home really well from the back. La Praline was disappointing.

Worth noting: Happy to follow the winner over the sprint trips.

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