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A Moonee Valley Night out

David — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 22:49:02 +0000

I don’t get to the races all that much these days because like most serious punters, it’s far easier to bet from home in front of a handful of computer screens with all of the information and applications I need at my fingertips.

So it was with a very fresh set of eyes that I headed to Moonee Valley last Friday night to witness Black Caviar romp to her 17^th straight win.

Here are a few of my thoughts from what was a great experience:

Why did the Moonee Valley racing club think they were only going to get around 10,000 people on the night? Melbourne is a sports-mad city, the weather was perfect, school kids were still on holidays and Black Caviar’s return made it bigger than just a sporting event. The club did the right thing in throwing the gates open but by trying to save costs initially they actually made a very expensive mistake considering the admission fees foregone, also catering revenue lost (many food and drink outlets had big queues and then sold out) and the missed opportunity of impressing the very occasional racegoer.
Night racing works. This was obviously a special occasion (special enough to warrant free-to-air prime time TV coverage) but it was a great celebratory atmosphere and thankfully very family friendly. We were all there to see a champion at her peak and may not see a better horse in our lifetime.
Horses are beautiful creatures. I’m not enough of a wordsmith to draw a mental picture for you, but seeing a finely tuned 500kg equine athlete up close is a thing of beauty.
Jockeys are courageous. You have to be to jump up on an animal that is 10 times your weight and race around at 60km per hour with very little to protect your body in the event of a fall.
How can Craig Williams only get 3 rides? He’s a great rider in career best form who has been riding winners here, there and everywhere yet there were 5 races where owners and trainers ignored him. Now I understand loyalty has a role to play in racing, but surely you’d want the best hoop available? I don’t mean to disrespect the jockeys who did get rides in those races, but if C Williams isn’t a better rider than Jake Duffy, Peter Mertens, Jarrod Todd, Katelyn Mallyon, James Winks, Lisa Cropp, Christine Puls, Rebecca Williams, Dale Smith, Jamie Mott, Jason Benbow, Talia Rodder, Jake Noonan, Jarrod Fry, Ashley Thompson, John Keating, Jack Hill, Kane Bradley (jockeys in events where Williams didn’t get a ride) I will give the punt away today.
Don’t think the official ‘top fluc’ was in fact the best price available in the bookmaker’s ring. Even semi-experienced punters can shop around in the ring and get a turn or two better than the official flucs.
What did bookies do before Betfair? Most are so glued to their Betfair screens to see where the market is and get an indication of where it’s going you wonder what they did before the betting exchange got a foothold down under.
Some bookies don’t deserve to attract a lot of bets. I appreciate that (much like a punter) risk tolerance will vary from bookie to bookie but some went up late, offered worse prices then the guys either side of them and turned the odds in very quickly on firmers even if they hadn’t layed them. And then wondered why they were getting small books for each race.
Mug punters bet too much. Too much of their bank per bet and too many bets per meeting.

If you’re a stay-at-home racing fan I urge you to get to the track once in a while. It’s a great experience and one that gives you a fresh perspective on the racing game.

A Moonee Valley Night out is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend racing review – Saturday January 28th

darryn — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 22:33:59 +0000

Sandown review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 1.     1400M    City of Opportunity Handicap

GO KATRINA            CHRIS SYMONS    1st    $5
OUR SPIRITS BAY    JAKE NOONAN       2nd   $5.50
STELLA COMMAND   LUKE NOLEN       3rd    $26

Go Katrina was on the limit and drawn the inside in a race where there didn’t look to be a lot of pace. Our Spirits Bay was coming off a month between runs and ran well to lead at a solid clip and hold on for 2nd in what was quite a bunched finish.

Worth noting: The favourite Volando has had 12 starts on good and dead tracks for no wins and just 4 placings.

Race 2. 2100M Greater Dandenong Chamber of Commerce Handicap

PLACEMENT               KATELYN MALLYON    1st    $8.50
TANAH LOT                 DAMIEN OLIVER         2nd    $4.40
HEEZ BORN LUCKY    NOEL CALLOW           3rd    $6.50

Placement burst through in the last 100m for just her 2nd win in 28 starts. She had form through the very promising Power O’Raylee but wasn’t well fancied in this with a poor winning strike-rate. She needed a soft run to just get up. The hot favourite Apres didnt settle at all in the first 400 and was never going to have anything left at the finish. That’s not the first time he’s done that and he’s a regular in stewards reports.

Worth noting: Some horses just keep finding trouble and Apres looks to be one of those.

Race 3. 1600M The Greater Dandenong Weekly Handicap

SPIRIT SONG         BRAD RAWILLER     1st    $4F
GOD HELP HER    CRAIG WILLIAMS    2nd    $7
PROCIDA               GLEN BOSS             3rd    $4.60

Spirit Song had a great run 3rd the fence, got out at the right time and let down well to win very easily. Trainer Aaron Purcell has had her for 4 starts for 3 wins and a half-length second to Grenada Road. Procida is a get-back horse who is always going to need luck in running. The leader Court Ya was having her 3rd start in 18 days and compounded in the straight to run 7th.

Worth noting: Spirit Song has been first or second at the turn in 8 straight races and these types of on-pace horses are very consistent betting propositions.

Race 4. 1300M AC Goulding Airconditioning Handicap

GREAT DAME          CHRIS SYMONS    1st    $4.60F
SEGUE                    MARK ZAHRA        2nd    $11
THE GOOD WIFE    MICHAEL RODD    3rd    $5

An early double for Chris Symons thanks to a smart front running ride coming across from barrier 10. Great Dame was coming off an 8 length win first up at Stony Creek and handled the big jump in class in great style. Clearly a raw talent with a big future possibly over more ground. Divine Madonna’s half-sister The Good Wife also shows plenty of promise for the Kavanagh stable. The experiment of stepping Song Of The Bell up in distance was a failure.

Worth noting: Backing horses in the city off a maiden win is a losing proposition, but ones like these that can defy that class rise, step up so quickly and run time (class record) are well worth following.

Race 5. 1600M Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Final

OVER QUOTA    PETER MERTENS    1st    $15
AGRIPPA            DWAYNE DUNN        2nd     $7
GIRESUN            STEVEN ARNOLD    3rd    $4.80F

Over Quota came into the race off two big priced wins ($15 and $61) and was at a big price again here ($15). Mertens settled Over Quota in a lovely spot one out and one back and he finished well to beat the very consistent Agrippa. The winner looks like he will get further than a mile. Belgietto has gone 15 starts without a win despite being fancied in most of those. Comeback jockey Glen Boss was thrown off Josimar as they jumped when the horse buckled.

Worth noting: The win brought up a double (from just 2 runners) for trainer Greg Eurell.

Race 6. 1400M City of Greater Dandenong Cup

ADAMS BELL          DANNY NIKOLIC    1st    $10
VALEDICTORIAN    CRAIG WILLIAMS    2nd    $4.20
FLASH KID              JACOB RULE          3rd    $31

Danny Nikolic needed all of his vigour and every bit of the 1400m to get Adams Bell over the line and just nail Valedictorian. That was his first win in his last 16 starts and he did it the hard way racing 3 wide the trip and grinding away in the straight. The runner up never runs a bad race. Ben Zena started favourite, enjoyed a good run but didn’t show any acceleration in the straight.

Worth noting: Adams Bell will need to be very well placed by Nikki Burke to be winning again soon.

Race 7. 1400M Hilton Manufacturing Handicap

BOMBALATOMBA    BRAD RAWILLER    1st    $6
WESTCHESTER    MARK ZAHRA          2nd    $18
HENWOOD              STEVEN KING         3rd    $5.50

Bombalatomba finished well to score a narrow but fairly impressive win over a gallant Westchester. That made it a double for Brad Rawiller which was a good effort considering the previous Saturday he had to ride at Moe to get a decent book. Unfortunately for Rawiller he now has to take an enforced holiday. Bombalatomba will be aimed at some of the bigger races over the Autumn carnival but he wont want to be giving the topliners a big head start. He’d featured in the stewards reports in all 5 of his career runs before this. Westchester was coming back 200m in distance and had to drop back to the rear from a wide barrier so his effort to make the winner fight all the way was very good, especially considering the big gap to 3rd.

Worth noting: Henwood was super on debut and solid here so keep a watch on him.

Race 8. 1200M Sportingbet Handicap

PAGO ROCK        LUKE NOLEN         1st    $3.90
LIKE AN EAGLE   DAMIEN OLIVER    2nd    $3.30F
THAT’S NOT IT    CHRIS SYMONS    3rd    $6

The two highly fancied runners were both Perth horses resuming from a spell and they ran the quinella in a head bobber that could have gone either way. Like An Eagle isn’t overly endowed with tactical speed, whereas Pago Rock always gets to a position where he makes his own luck. Like An Eagle is very promising.

Worth noting: Moody’s flat patch late last year (by his lofty standards) looks to be well and truly over.

——————————————————————————————

Canterbury review

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st    Nocturnelle    Glyn Schofield
2nd   Pectin           Peter Robl
3rd    Mickelberg    Blake Shinn

Trick Shot eventually worked across from a three wide position early to lead Follow My Lead with Mickelberg taking the trail. Glyn Schofield knew he had a fair horse under him and let Nocturnelle settle a clear last after bungling the start. In the straight she unleashed a powerful run to win going away. Pectin tried hard by realistically was no match for the winner. Saramenha found itself wide for a good bit of the race and although not beating many home was a fair run.

Follow: Nocturnelle, Saramenha

Race 2

1st    Jade Marauder    Glyn Schofield
2nd   Almighty Charge Tom Berry
3rd    Rampaging          Hugh Bowman

Race two basically was the Jade Marauder stakes and an early double to Glyn Schofield. It was another horse to settle right back near last and unwind a big finish. You don’t see this often in two year old races and although there was a fair pace on, you have to say all honours were with her. It was the turn of foot just around the home turn that won the race and this was maintained in the run to the line. The run of Almighty Charge was good, leading and sprinting away from the rest of the field on straightening and Rampaging will be improved following its debut run for third.

Follow: Almighty Charge, Rampaging. Jade Marauder likely to start short from here on.

Race 3

1st    Fontelina        Blake Shinn
2nd   Said Com       Hugh Bowman
3rd    Prosperity Aethon    Sam Clipperton

Said Com was ridden perhaps a touch too confidently by Hugh Bowman, going back to last. He looked like he would get up on the straight but perhaps shirked the task a little bit late in the race and went under narrowly. Maybe I am being harsh and it just wants further or needed the run. There was a strong pace set by Road To Summer but it never actually crossed to the fence with Wild And Proud kicking up inside it. Those two were quickly beaten in the straight. Fontelina and Said Com had the race set up for them and it was Fontelina who found plenty to get the win.

Follow: None to follow

Race 4

1st    Al’s Magic Miss   Sam Clipperton
2nd   La Remlap           Shaun Guymer
3rd    Girls Go Racing   Hugh Bowman

La Remlap went along genuinely in the lead and did its best to hold off Al’s Magic Miss that sat outside of it. Al’s Magic Miss really dug in the last 50m and it was a pretty fair win. Girls Go Racing which had missed the start made good ground but be careful if it continues to display poor barrier manners. Chula Vista was making good ground down the outside in the last part of the race.

Follow: Chula Vista

Race 5

1st    Steps In Time          Jim Cassidy
2nd   Onthelookout           Adam Hyeronimous
3rd    Star Of Octagonal    Robert Thompson

The Pumper earned his money here having to ride Steps In Time a bit to find the lead and then having to get stuck into it the last bit to get it home, but in the end it was, I suppose, a comfortable enough win. Onthelookout ran a great race for second but it was the third horse Star Of Octagonal that I thought might take the most improvement from this race and has a win in store soon. At about the 200m it was a real chance of bursting through for second but its fitness possibly gave out the last bit.

Follow: Star Of Octagonal, Chula Vista

Race 6

1st    Slow The Flow    Glyn Schofield
2nd   Radar                 Tom Berry
3rd    So Generous      Matthew Cahill

So Generous and Duke Of Cornwall raced each other for the lead which left Happy Finish and Midnight At Ascot three and four wide respectively. Radar got a pretty cushy run about three lengths off the lead. Slow The Flow was smothered away in the second half of the field the entire race and it appeared evident on the turn it had plenty to give. It took a little while to find clear running but then pinged like a pretty good horse. Single Warrior was making excellent ground in the straight to run fourth.

Follow: Single Warrior

Race 7

1st    Tigress Lily       Blake Shinn
2nd   Miracle Magic   Tom Berry
3rd    Okane              Josh Adams

Due to an inside draw, Umatain found the lead but disputed that spot early with Miracle Magic and Surge Draw. Tigress Lilly was smothered away in the run and was bolting on the turn but when he decided to get into the clear on it, there was little regard for the horses outside of it, namely Bielski and Mangaroa Flyer. You can put a line through both of them so bad was the interference. Okane is another that may have done more however checked badly off heels just before the turn and was lucky not to come down. The winner did sprint well but it is a difficult race to assess from a future view point.

Follow: None to follow

Race 8

1st    Skateboard          Rod Quinn
2nd   World Wide          Blake Shinn
2nd   Acta Non Verba    Sam Clipperton

Skateboard jumped well and then took a cushy sit on the fence behind the pace. Bereft was three wide all day and you can forget its run. Sienna Red had an easy run and finished off ok but there were clearly two future winners in this race which were World Wide and Diamond Jim. Both horses have been going very well since coming back from their spells and you would think something around the 1800 – 2200m range will suit now.

Follow: World Wide, Diamond Jim

Specials from the meeting: Almighty Charge, Star Of Octagonal, World Wide, Diamond Jim

Weekend racing review – Saturday January 28th is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Robl’s red-hot return

darryn — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 01:41:01 +0000

Prior to his return to riding in late November last year Peter Robl said that “The past is the past and the future is what you make of it. And I’m going to make the most of it.”

He has been very true to his word and it’s quite ironic that a jockey returning from a suspension for betting has become one of the best punting propositions in NSW racing.

Following minor placings in his first two comeback races, Robl broke through at return ride number three and hasn’t looked back since.
156 rides for a massive 34% Profit on Turnover using proportionate staking is an exceptional record. Clearly experience and motivation is a deadly combination. Not to mention that the marketplace either forgot about him or wrote him off altogether.

To get an understanding of just how good those profit figures are, let’s compare them to the top 10 jockeys in the Sydney premiership –

So Sydney’s top ten jockeys are averaging a loss on turnover of 18%.

Robl is making a profit on turnover of 34%.

While his comeback has exceeded all expectations other than his own, I’ll finish with our usual disclaimer.

Don’t just blindly back all of Robl’s mounts and expect to do really well long-term because this market anomaly will not continue indefinitely.

Punting is not that easy unfortunately.

Robl’s red-hot return is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend racing reviews – Saturday January 21st

darryn — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 11:41:27 +0000

Flemington review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 1. 1200M Summer Heroes Raceday 1200

SHAMEXPRESS         DWAYNE DUNN   1st   $4
GALVEZ                     LUKE NOLEN         2nd   $4.40
CHASING KISSES     DEAN HOLLAND   3rd   $4.80

The early pace summed up this race, they walked through the first half of the race and it was very evident by the 400m that they were going to struggle to pick up the winner who looks very classy Shamexpress. He looked comfortable down his home straight and has more wins in him. The favourite was the Hayes runner Henia, he was last and on the fence and as quickly as we could see the winner being in no trouble we knew Henia was going to struggle to make enough ground. Chasing Kisses and Galvez were good but just not in the same league as the winner.

Worth noting: Follow the winner.

Race 2. 1600M St John Plate

TOTAL ATTRACTION   BEN MELHAM   1st   $5
SILENT ATTITUDE   JACOB RULE      2nd   $18
BESANT   NOEL CALLOW   3rd   $11

The speed map had Kellora as the clear leader here but it was all upside down pretty quickly when she settled midfield and came with a run a faded, her performance was a little inconclusive. The winner Total Attraction was really good again. She showed that she can settle closer to the speed and finish off and whilst doing that she overcame a few difficulties in the straight. Silent Attitude was the Adelaide visitor and she really kicked well over the concluding stages but was just nailed close to the line.

Worth noting: Total Attraction was really good, follow her. Forgive Kellora nothing went right for her.

Race 3. 1400M Volunteer Fire Brigades Victoria

GOLDEN PENNY      STEVEN ARNOLD    1st   $5.50
LADY ROCK              JAKE NOONAN        2nd    $11
LEGION’S BELLE      JACOB RULE           3rd   $15

Legions Belle jumped well here and was able to stack them up throughout in a race that had very little speed. What that did was enable Golden Penny to run out a strong 1400m under the in form Arnold. She was tucked away throughout and was just a little too good for them with the run she had. Plenty made runs at the top of the straight but it was just too hard for them to make up any ground from back and wide.

Worth noting: Analyse your sectionals here to see what happened over the concluding stages. The margins won’t tell you the true outcome.

Race 4. 2000M Life Saving Victoria Race to the Rescue

ROYAL MAIL       JAKE NOONAN   1st   $3.60F
VIKING HERO   DAMIEN OLIVER    2nd    $4.40
PERSIAN STAR   GLEN BOSS          3rd   $8

The best ride won the race and that goes went to Noonan and Royal Mail. Once they settled the speed was again slow and Noonan decided to make the move around them and take up the running. Being on pace and not a hard tempo it really suited him as he is rock hard fit and he was able to keep kicking with the handy claim. Umatic made a mid race move also and he battled on pretty well but was in the right spot. Viking Hero couldn’t really get going until late and he hit the line well. Hanks loomed up and was disappointing.

Worth noting: You can sack Hanks, he isn’t very serious.

Race 5. 1400M Flying Doctor Plate

FLYINGCONI        CRAIG NEWITT   1st   $3.40
VOLANDO            LUKE NOLEN       2nd    $9
WEALTHY LAD   DWAYNE DUNN   3rd   $9

Another race where the speed maps were out of the window quick smart when Cannonball settled back and Anteros and Diamonds At Dusk worked forward. Wealthy Lad landed in the right spot and had an excellent run throughout. He just found a couple of them a little too classy. Can’t knock the winner Flyingconi, he had a good run throughout and really hit the line well. He has made good improvement. Smokin Joey had a great run but yet again had no luck, he never has luck! Volando hit the line well and she is working towards a nice win.

Worth noting: Smokin Joey has to be on his last legs. Volando looks the one to follow.

Race 6. 1000M Kensington Stakes

FIRST COMMAND         STEVEN ARNOLD 1st   $4.80F
DECIRCLES                DWAYNE DUNN   2nd    $7.50
WEEKEND SPECIAL   MICHAEL RODD   3rd   $5

After initially being caught near the outside Arnold steered the winner First Command to the inside and the old timer really did well. He was able to sit just off of them and sprinted really well to hold off the fast finishing Weekend Special. Esprit De Bullet ran well although he didn’t place, he looks in for a good campaign. 3yo Decircles did pretty well also, he is lightly race and should continue to improve. The Soldier was taken to the outside fence in what was a bad error in judgement by the jockey.

Worth noting: Hard to pick up on pacers down the straight.

Race 7. 1700M SES Victorian Volunteers Handicap

BOLTON   NICHOLAS HALL    1st   $6.50
CHASSE   CHRIS SYMONS   2nd    $5
SEGURO   JAKE NOONAN      3rd   $13

The planets aligned for Bolton and he dashed away to score an excellent win whilst on the quick back up. He was given a lovely ride by Hall and when the gaps opened he was able to work through and show enough turn of foot to put them away. Conquering Journey was heavily backed and yet again burnt punters that followed the money. He can’t be taken seriously. Ship In The Night was ridden upside down and that took away his finishing burst, poor tactics. Chasse did what he does best and that’s run into second and Seguro hit the line well for third and he is very close to a win.

Worth noting: Forgive Ship In The Night he settled to close to the speed.

Race 8. 1800M Tributes Handicap

INFUSE                 STEVEN KING      1st   $4.20
PHANTOM BREW DAMIEN OLIVER   2nd    $9
SIDECAR               JAKE NOONAN   3rd   $8.50

Infuse was heavily backed, jumped well stacked them up and won well. He is a nice type on an upward spiral and will continue to improve and make less mistakes. He won this coming out of an RB58 and in the end he did it pretty easily and King had one ride one win. The rest of the race was fairly uneventful. Sidecar, Bold Trojan and Phantom Brew all worked and looked to plod to the line. Measin was again poor and not sure where to for him.

Worth noting: Follow Infuse

——————————————————————————————

Rosehill review compiled by Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st    Alberton Park       Chad Schofield
2nd   First Look      Hugh Bowman
3rd   Hatton Garden       Blake Shinn

We Betcha missed the start. Rosie’s Reward made its intentions known early but Forward Love kicked up inside it which ensured a good tempo. This left Rosmerta three wide on the speed with First Look and Alberton Park getting cushy runs in 4th and 5th. Once those in front were spent, these two settled down to fight it out with Alberton Park doing best for the win. Hatton Garden ran on reasonably well. The run of Recorrido was disappointing again. It seems she can occasionally look like a very good horse but for the moment is not going well.

Follow: Hatton Garden

Race 2

1st   Hardbreak Hotel Rod Quinn
2nd   Thumbtacks       Glyn Schofield
3rd   Royal Esprit       Hugh Bowman

Good pace again here with So So Sure finding the fence in front of Riding To Win. This left Thumbtacks in the cheap seats so it had to be restrained back in the field. Similar to the first race, this then gave Hardbreak Hotel and Equable very good runs behind the speed. Irish Jig was another caught wide that eventually had to go back. In the run to the line, Hardbreak Hotel killed them but the run of Thumbtacks was very good to run on again into second after the forwards/backwards tactics. Royal Esprit missed the kick but got past the rest in the straight to run third.

Follow: Thumbtacks

Race 3

1st    Cavalry Rose       Glyn Schofield
2nd   Diamond Earth      Peter Robl
3rd   Taxmeifyoucan      Hugh Bowman

Plenty of pace as expected in the two-year-old event with Diamond Earth finding the front. Cavalry Rose made good use of its inside barrier to hold the fence and end up just behind the leaders. Vavavic was caught three wide in third and Single In Paris had a horror run four wide. Diamond Earth took off upon straightening which let Cavalry Rose out of the pocket. At the 200m mark if you were on Diamond Earth you were shouting the bar however it stopped in the last 50m and Cavalry Rose kept coming to just get up on the line and she looked as if she will learn from the run. Not a lot can be said for the rest as they were a good margin away. I liked the way the winner kept trying in the run to the line.

Follow: Diamond Earth

Race 4

1st   War Charm          Peter Robl
2nd   Aberrant               Sam Clipperton
3rd   Cindarockinrella   Andrew Stead

Miss Spoken found the front from Abberant and they did not look to go as fast here as in the early events. Cindarockinrella and Diamond To Pegasus were the ones getting nice runs behind the speed. Angel Of Mercy and Hoylonny who were the top two in betting appeared to travel well in the run but were quickly in trouble upon straightening due to the slow pace and never threatened. The eventual winner in a blanket finish was War Charm which weaved its way through after an economical run three back on the fence. I am not sure the form of this race can be followed to reliably due to lack of pace.

Follow: Hoylonny (give it one more go, and look for a race with pace on)

Race 5

1st   Magic Weekend   Brenton Avdulla
2nd   Vilakazi Street   Glyn Schofield
3rd   Mighty Obvious   Tom Berry

Mighty Obvious was ridden with intention and found the lead. Princess Qualo was outside it with Magic Weekend caught three wide until eventually working to “the death seat”. They bunched up on the turn and in the end it was a fair effort by Magic Weekend to keep fighting all the way to the line and win narrowly from Vilakazi Street. The favourite in the race, Aeronautical, was out the back the whole way and never came into it. The form guide for him will have to read “see again”. Perhaps another race where the form may not be all that reliable.

Follow: None to follow

Race 6

1st   Cabernet               Brenton Avdulla
2nd   Parthian                Sean Guymer
3rd   Mr Unforgettable   Andrew Stead

They took a little while to sort themselves out here but eventually O’Crikey which looked the likely leader found that position. Key West was outside him giving Parthian a good smother on the fence behind the leader. The impressive winner of the race was Cabernet who smoked its pipe four back on the fence. It was obvious the horse was bolting on the turn and Brenton Avdulla knew it. He rode a patient race taking inside runs to make ground before switching around heals and the horse did the rest. In the end she came clear to win by about three lengths and she can be followed to win more races. The rest had no excuses in my opinion.

Follow: Cabernet

Race 7

1st   Single               Nathan Berry
2nd   Rolling Pin         Hugh Bowman
3rd   Tropicana Girl   Corey Brown

The most interesting race of the day and in the end, the recipe for success was simple. Class and tactical speed. Rolling Pin found the front with its big weight and the eventual winner Single took a lovely run in about 6th on the fence. Single had been tried in better races as a three-year-old and the spell since seems to have improved it. The Owl settled second in the run but dropped out badly in the straight and you can imagine it will go for a spell now. Single railed up behind Rolling Pin before the turn and you had the feeling he would always get past him and he did. Jimmy Fortunes and Irish Love both get a pass mark here, however Irish Love has bad barrier manners.

Follow: Jimmy Fortunes

Race 8

1st   Kinnersley                  Adam Hyeronimous
2nd   Romanus                    Chris Reith
3rd   Oakfield Commands   Jim Cassidy

Kinnersley was wide early so worked to the lead when the pace was not fast. Oakfield Commands who many probably expected to lead landed second in the run. Kinnersley kept finding in the straight to hold on for the win. You have to give full marks to Adam Hyeronimous for the ride as he summed it up nicely early and took some initiative. Romanus ran on as it often does to get into second in front of Oakfield Commands. Think Mink will be improved for the run and wound up fourth.

Follow: Think Mink

Specials from the meeting: Hatton Garden, Cabernet, Think Mink

Weekend racing reviews – Saturday January 21st is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Hayes still hurting the hip pocket

David — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:14:34 +0000

The recent TVN special on David Hayes’ move to Euroa was a fascinating look behind the scenes of a large scale modern training operation. Hayes has spent a number of years designing and developing his ideal set-up in an attempt to reclaim his reputation as one of Australia’s best trainers.

Hayes mentioned a few times his belief that a trainer needs a point of difference to achieve excellent results. He is confident the move to Euroa gives him that with timing technology, water walkers, day paddocks, spelling paddocks, a variety of training surfaces and an uphill track.

Obviously Americain’s owners believe in Hayes and Euroa, but our perspective is always the punting angle and the question we want to know is will the move from the old Lindsay Park improve the profitability of Hayes runners?

In 2010 we reported that Hayes’ loss on turnover worsened in each of the 5 years since his return from Hong Kong. The losses were literally twice the rate of his training contemporaries such as Waller, Waterhouse, Snowden, Pride, Price, Moody, Kavanagh, Kent, O’Brien and Pride.

This stat alone is not necessarily Hayes fault as he doesn’t control the betting market, but his stables winning strike-rate was poor and his reputation far exceeds performance from a punting perspective. The many Premierships and Group 1 winners of yesteryear, as well as the iconic Hayes name, leads many punters to over-rate the Hayes stable.

In the 2010/2011 racing season Hayes runners had a 10% winning strike-rate and lost 22% on turnover.

In the current racing season Hayes has an 11% strike-rate and punters are still losing 22 cents on the dollar.

So let’s compare the numbers of leading Sydney and Melbourne trainers for the season to date:

No improvement there despite being at Euroa basically full-time, although one shining light has been his record in Sydney. It’s a very small sample size (just 65 NSW starters) but they are winning at a 16% clip and are making a very healthy profit on turnover of 35%.

This is not a personal attack on Hayes as he is a deserving member of Australian racing’s Hall-of-Fame. But the cold hard facts are that his winning strike-rate is poor and that for many years now punters have seriously over-rated the likelihood that his horses will win. You should be quite wary when considering betting on his horses because very few go around at a value price.

Hayes still hurting the hip pocket is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Vinery Stud Handicap preview – Rosehill Saturday 21st January

darryn — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 11:12:06 +0000

Vinery Stud Handicap preview – Rosehill

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race 7 at Rosehill on Saturday is a Benchmark 85 race but to me is one of the most interesting races to be run in the country on the day. That is mainly because it is packed with some unanswered questions and horses that are in form.

Firstly, you have Rolling Pin which has been in great form and has the advantage of a forward racing pattern but the question is can it extend its winning form to 1800m? You have a similar situation with Single which will likely start favourite in the race. As a three-year-old he was tried over longer journeys and failed. Has his spell since that campaign given him the strength to now see out further than his previous longest winning distance of 1500m? He did beat Rolling Pin comprehensively two starts back and is twice a winner at Rosehill. Throw in a better barrier and far less weight than Rolling Pin in this race and so far he is the selection.

I don’t believe the chances end there however. The run of The Owl last start as a short priced favourite was not too bad although beaten easily by Upbeat. In my opinion it’s exactly the right move to step this horse up to 1800m based on its grinding effort last start.

The three I have mentioned so far, all share that common question of whether the 1800m will suit? Of the three, I’m most convinced it will suit The Owl. Let’s keep going however. Our Cannavaro and Tropicana Girl may be the value in the race for the simple reasons that they are proven over further distances and have both been running well lately. At times, both can be “bridesmaids” however which is their question mark.

When asked for a selection, I will tip The Owl over Our Cannavaro. I’m prepared to risk Rolling Pin and Single – some may say that’s a dangerous move given their on pace racing pattern which I myself always point out provides a natural advantage but not if you fail to run out the trip!

Vinery Stud Handicap preview – Rosehill Saturday 21st January is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend racing reviews – Saturday 14th January

darryn — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 08:07:46 +0000

Flemington review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 1. 1000M Better Beyond Plate (Time 57.53/600m 32.95)

FORMIDABLE           CHRIS SYMONS      1st   $18
IF I COULD                DAMIEN OLIVER   2nd    $1.90F
POPULAR ACCLAIM   DWAYNE DUNN      3rd   $16

Ellerton filly Formidable (32.95) jumped well and was able to do it at both ends and saluted with an all of the way victory. It continues an excellent run for the stable who look to have a good little group of youngsters. Once she got to the 200m she drifted off the fence and she felt the pinch but had too much in the tank. Runner up and favourite If I Could (32.72) was doing his best work late and he will get better as he gets out past the 1000m. Popular Acclaim (32.84) made good late ground along the inside and is well related and worth keeping an eye on. The rest didn’t do much at all.

Worth noting: If I Could just wouldn’t go straight at a vital stage.

Race 2. 1400M Elms Handicap (Time 1:22.37/600m 34.47)

INSTALMENT   STEPHEN BASTER   1st   $5
CANONIZED      NOEL CALLOW      2nd    $6
DEDUCTIBLE   BEN MELHAM         3rd   $9

The betting suggested a good run was on the cards for the debut runner Henwood (34.30) and although he enjoyed a good run he was unable to really get a crack at them when it counted. Lovely win by Instalment (34.47) who crossed them from a wide gate, stacked them up and had enough left in the tank. He was 1100 to 1400 and only second up. He looks a nice type of 3yo that can keep winning. Canonized (33.62) just settled too far back in the run, saved some ground and presented late along the fence. It was a good performance for the Mick Kent trained runner who showed he can mix it on a Saturday.

Worth noting: I think this will be a pretty good form race. Worth keeping an eye on these.

Race 3.     1000M    Tauto Handicap   (Time 57.08/600m 33.14)

RAVENOUS LASS   KATELYN MALLYON   1st   $6
JOHANNAPINE      DWAYNE DUNN           2nd    $2.70F
RORKE’S DRIFT   ASHLEY THOMPSON   3rd   $10

Another excellent effort by Ravenous Lass (33.14). This mare really thrives over 1000m and loves the straight. She looked really well placed with the claim for Mallyon and got a good run on the pace. As the rest were doing it hard around the 200m it was evident that she was going to keep going and she dug deep and held off Johannapine (32.81). Johannapine didn’t do too much wrong. She had a pretty good run throughout and maybe Dunn was a little too patient on her because by the time she was wound up she ran out of time.

Worth noting: Certainly follow the runner up, she will improve.

Race 4. 2500M Rain Lover Handicap (Time 2:36.59/600m 34.42)

MR RIGGS              CHRIS SYMONS   1st    $11
STAR OF JEUNE   MICHELLE PAYNE 2nd    $10
FLYING HULA          BEN MELHAM        3rd    $7

It looked a tough race and it was. Jeuneys End (38.01) rolled along and was really given no hope but while doing that the horses that were chasing him to keep up spent too much petrol and they were gone by the 200m. Star Of Jeune (35.79) and Flying Hula (35.83) both settled towards the tail and ran on well late but it was Mr Riggs (35.94) who enjoyed a good run throughout and was then given a rails passage from the 200m and with all of the ground he saved he was just too good.

Worth noting: Pretty hard to follow these ones, they take it in turns.

Race 5. 1600M Comedy King Handicap (Time 1:36.27/600m 34.36)

OVER QUOTA   PETER MERTENS   1st   $61
LA ROCKET   STEPHEN BASTER   2nd   $11
PLATAMONE CASTLE   DALE SMITH   3rd   $8.50

This race was identified early in the week as lacking speed and the two that pushed forward La Rocket (34.46) and Over Quota (34.17) managed to quinella the race. It was a good effort by Over Quota and the move to push forward was a winning one. La Rocket battled on well but just couldn’t dig deep enough over the last 200m. Favourite Giresun (34.32) raced closer to the speed but was no match and the unlucky runner was Belgietto (34.20). He was working nicely into the race but ran out of room along the fence and Oliver had to stop riding.

Worth noting: Plenty of good runs here in a race dictated by a modest tempo.

Race 6. 1400M Chester Manifold Stakes (Time 1:22.75/600m 34.22)

AT THE HEADS       JAMES WINKS   1st   $10
PIED A TERRE          MARK ZAHRA       2nd    $2.35F
SECOND EFFORT   DANNY NIKOLIC   3rd   $9.50

At The Heads (33.88) is one of those horses and he found his best form back at his home track. He appreciated a better run in transit this time and was able to hit the line well. The heavily backed favourite Pied A Terre (33.96) managed to get in from a wide draw and settled midfield. He made a run at the top of the straight with By The Way (33.96) and did well. He didn’t get the win but it was certainly a good effort against the older horses and he can be followed. Second Effort (34.25) was pretty close to the speed all of the way and he did well for third. He needs a little break now and will be better suited back to the 1200m.

Worth noting: Follow Pied A Terre and Second Effort with confidence next time in suitable.

Race 7. 1000M Nouvelle Star Handicap (Time 58.04/600m 34.06)

LEONCITA                 JAKE NOONAN         1st   $8
LADY ANTEBELLUM   KATELYN MALLYON 2nd    $9.50
CHINNI                      JARROD FRY           3rd   $18

Like the other 1000m races Leoncita (34.06) led from start to finish and registered an impressive win. It was a good ride by Noonan and the claim was very handy in the end as she got the wobbles. She is a nice speedy type and around these distances she will be worth following in suitable. Lady Antebellum (33.67) and Chinni (33.78) got out late and they worked home well but the winner had too much of a break. The favoured runners were get back types and they got back and stayed back. I wouldn’t sack them as the pattern of the day has suited horses on the speed.

Worth noting: Slowest 1000m race of the day

Race 8. 2000M Jezabeel (Time 2:03.39/600m 34.33)

POWER O’RAYLEE   LUKE NOLEN             1st   $3.10F
MYTHICAL                  DWAYNE DUNN          2nd    $17
PLACEMENT              KATELYN MALLYON    3rd   $11

Winged Charm (34.97) was attempting the 2000m for the first time and she was ridden forward out of the gates. It was a nice effort by the mare who is generally better with a sit and was only third up. Power O’raylee (34.21) managed to work across from the wide gate easily upon settling and was just too good. She is a nice stayer on the way through and had lengths on this field. Late in the race Mythical (34.35) and Placement (34.19) started to work home well and they are progressing well also.

Worth noting: Follow Winged Charm she has a nice little race in her.

——————————————————————————————

Rosehill review

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st    De Shamekh   Hugh Bowman
2nd   Treaty          Kerrin McEvoy
3rd   Party Rocker   Y Ichikawa

De Shamekh used its good draw to kick up and lead from Party Rocker. It was evident before the turn the winner was going well and it sprinted away in the run to the line. Party Rocker tried to hold second but was passed late by Treaty which was a good run coming from last although it did save ground on the fence.

Follow: Treaty

Race 2

1st   Permit            Hugh Bowman
2nd   Planetarium   Adam Hyeronimous
3rd   Peck              Kerrin McEvoy

Double Crescent led again as expected. The pace looked even and the eventual winner Permit got the gun run in third on the fence. Did I say last week that Hugh Bowman was the best jockey in Australia? He proved it again yesterday. At the 200m this horse was trotting but was hideously held up for a run. Anyone else on board you would have thought was in all sorts – not Bowman. Cool, calm and collected he waited to switch across heals and Permit did the rest. Not much can be said for the beaten brigade based on this although Planetarium ran well for second.

Follow: Planetarium

Race 3

1st   Chivvy                Hugh Bowman
2nd   Tabasco Kitten   Shaun Guymer
3rd   Debelle              Adam Hyeronimous

Tabasco Kitten had the speed to lead clearly and I will admit to having my money on it but when Chivvy stalked it the whole way, I was worried. Chivvy seems to be the horse with the most upside in this race although Tabasco Kitten will improve for the outing also. These two cleared out and nothing else looked like threatening them to run the quinella the whole way. Khurein can perform well in a race with more pace on.

Follow: Chivvy

Race 4

1st   Upbeat               Peter Robl
2nd   Senta D’Amour   Blake Shinn
3rd   The Owl              Kerrin McEvoy

Another on pace dominated race as they so often are at Rosehill. Senta D’Amor set an average clip here and the pace was wound up before the turn. It was almost a lovely judged ride by Blake Shinn but Upbeat had been camped second and third in the run was able to wear it down on the line. The favourite in the race, The Owl, shouldn’t be sacked on this run, he ground away well in the race for third and may be suited over a bit further now.

Follow: The Owl

Race 5

1st   Alma’s Fury          Peter Robl
2nd   Parthian               Kerrin McEvoy
3rd   New Day Rising   Blake Shinn

The pace on paper in this race looked obvious and it turned out that way with New Day Rising using it’s inside barrier to lead Parthian. It was a slow pace but the eventual winner Alma’s Fury was left smoking its pipe behind the leader. Despite a few brief concerns in the straight when looking for room it turned out Alma’s Fury had them covered easily enough in the last 100m and you had to be impressed with its sprint off the slow pace. That makes it three from three this campaign and perhaps bigger things are ahead for it down the track? Parthian and New Day Rising had no excuses whatsoever. Due to the slow pace, the runs of the others should basically be forgotten.

Follow: Alma’s Fury

Race 6

1st   Key West Hugh Bowman
2nd   Bereft       Peter Robl
3rd   Bello       Kerrin McEvoy

Bereft missed the kick here and given the ground it made up late, the run was very good. Duke Of Cornwall assumed the lead as he often does which left Bello out wide all the way. Great jockeys make decisions and it was that man again, Hugh Bowman who made a decision to let Key West go to the front mid race and from there he had them covered and that gave him half the card. Bello ground away and I suppose can be excused given it was wide in the run and as already mentioned the run of Bereft was full of merit.

Follow: Bereft

Race 7

1st   Upon This Rock   Adam Hyeronimous
2nd   Cabernet              Andrew Stead
3rd   Oakfield Comet   Sam Clipperton

By this time of course people were talking about the leader bias of the track As I keep saying however, if you do not start your day with this approach at Rosehill, you have missed the boat. Upon This Rock did here what it had threatened to do last campaign in a string of minor placings. It found the lead and had great acceleration in the straight to bolt in. The recent spell it has had looks to have improved it. Cabernet ran on as it always does and can win one if you find it in a race with good speed. Again not a lot made ground from the back.

Follow: Cabernet

Race 8

1st   Maules Creek Blake Shinn
2nd   Diamond Jim   Chad Schofield
3rd   Druid               Andrew Stead

More Than Irish missed the kick and that was the end of it. Quick Peek set its own pace in front but was being stalked by the short priced favourite, Maules Creek. The run presented on the fence and it took the short way home for a narrow but comfortable enough win. Diamond Jim ran a huge race fresh with a big weight and Okane was one of a few horses all day to make good ground in the run to the line. Mon Soleil was never really sighted despite being well in commission in the betting ring.

Follow: Diamond Jim, Okane

Specials From The Meeting: Treaty, Alma’s Fury, Diamond Jim, Okane

We also have a follow up review on the Magic Millions 2yr old classic that Todd previewed in Friday’s newsletter for you below.

The protest will be talked about forever and it will go down as the most controversial Magic Millions in history but regardless of whether you think it should have been upheld or not, if you backed Driefontein you got the money and if you backed No Looking Back your ticket is confetti.

What the Magic Millions did prove once again however was the advantage of backing horses racing on the speed. Driefontein led the race whilst No Looking Back got a cosy run in behind it all the way. Alezean Thunder which ran third, also found itself on the speed the whole way.

The fourth horse, Sizzling who I still think is loaded with a ability had the disadvantage in this race of not having the speed to be right up there. On the turn, the three in front sprinted and made it too difficult for anything from behind to catch them. This is so often the case in racing and I really feel you must back horses with early tactical speed!

So, for the record, should the protest have been upheld in my opinion? I don’t really think so. It’s evident that No Looking Back cost Driefontein ground but can we definitely say that it was enough to cost it the race? Surely that still has to be questionable. It seems to me of late that the nature of protests is changing somewhat from a stance where you had to prove beyond doubt that your horse would have won the race barring interference to a stance that is, if you breach the rules of racing, you’ll lose the race.

On that grounds, there is no doubt in my mind that Nash Rawiller did breach the rules of racing by allowing his mount to shift and come into contact with Driefontein.

As I said in opening however, it matters not, as the number is in the frame.

Weekend racing reviews – Saturday 14th January is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Magic Millions 2yo classic preview

darryn — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 01:34:29 +0000

Magic Millions 2yo classic preview – Gold Coast Race 5

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

The Magic Millions takes centre stage this Saturday at The Gold Coast and it is once again an excellent day of racing. The main race itself does look to come down to a few key chances but on occasion, this race can throw up a surprise result.

A punting lesson I have outlined recently is that being on the pace is an advantage. A pressure cooker two-year-old event sometimes can defy that but this year I don’t expect that to be the case. I suspect the best horse in the race is Sizzling, however he looks certain to have the disadvantage of giving them a fair start. That is ultimately what brought him unstuck last start and could do that again on Saturday.

For that reason, I am going to tip his last start conqueror Driefontein. I like the acceleration shown by this horse at the right time last start to pinch a winning break and then go on strongly with the job.

The other horse that impressed me with acceleration last start was Amorino. Both Amorino and Driefontein are drawn to get somewhere up near the lead fairly easily so I think they have to be marked as the top two picks. Amorino has the services of Jim Cassidy and he is riding as well as ever in my opinion.

If Sizzling is able to settle close enough there’s no doubt he is a live threat and he has been supported in early betting. The improver in the race could be the stablemate to Driefontein which is No Looking Back. This horse is a veteran of only one start and most two-year-olds do improve at their second race outing. Lady Colours is another that may improve from her last start win which was quite impressive but she does have an extra 300m and barrier 15 to contend with.

In summary, there is certainly no such thing as a good thing in races like this but Driefontein looks to have the pace and acceleration advantage that stacks the odds in her favour.

Magic Millions 2yo classic preview is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend Racing reviews – Saturday 7th January

darryn — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 05:58:45 +0000

Caulfield review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 1. 1100M Thomas North (Time 1:03.99/600m 34.14)

SWEET LITTLE LIES CHRIS SYMONS 1st $2.80F
OCKHAM’S RAZOR DANNY NIKOLIC 2nd $5.50
DISPATCH JAMES WINKS 3rd $4

Sweet Little Lies (34.14) did it all the way and quite easily. It was a jump and run job and she was able to get the fence, lead them up and run away from them, impressive. Ockham’s Razor (34.60) settled midfield and was asked to go quite early and his effort was pretty good as it was a long sustained effort. Dispatch (34.73) did his best but never looked a winning chance and battled on well for third.

Worth noting: Follow the winner, she did it really well and looks above average.

Race 2. 1400M Ian Miller (No times available )

TOTAL ATTRACTION BEN MELHAM 1st $8
GIG ASHLEY THOMPSON 2nd $8
PILBARA SAND DWAYNE DUNN 3rd $10

This was an excellent win by the Moody runner Total Attraction. This filly has an excellent turn of foot and she needed to use all of it as she settled in a good spot but was shuffled well back to last and had to come back and around the field. Once she hit the 200m it was evident she had them covered. Eleve had a nice run in transit and should have finished much closer but got squeezed out halfway down the straight and wasn’t asked to do a lot late. Gig who jumped well held onto third and that was a good effort by her.

Worth noting: Total Attraction will keep getting better, follow her and forgive Eleve who had no luck.

Race 3. 1600M Swettenham Stud Summer Championship (Time 1:38.68 /600m 34.27)

AGRIPPA KATELYN MALLYON 1st $4.40
SEGURO BEN MELHAM 2nd $14
CROSS STREET CRAIG ROBERTSON 3rd $21

Cross Street (34.33) jumped out well with Seguro (34.35) and Agrippa (34.11). The well backed favourite Conquering Journey (34.28) was restrained early and wouldn’t settle which ultimately ended his chances of winning. Mayneda Strategy (34.26) just got back a bit further than anticipated and never really got a crack at them in the straight. It was a good win by Agrippa who was rated well by Mallyon with her handy claim. The tempo was modest and when asked for his effort he was able to tough it out and was too good for Seguro in a leaders dominated race.

Worth noting: Conquering Journey is better in rain effected ground. Worth remembering they didn’t go very hard when doing the form for these next time, look to sectionals.

Race 4. 1100M John Moule (Time 1:03.66/600m 34.35)

MISTER MILTON BEN MELHAM 1st $6.50
SONG OF THE BELL MICHELLE PAYNE 2nd $5
RESCUE MISSION JAKE DUFFY 3rd $3.70F

Stratumsphere (35.11) jumped well and put in early to retain the rail which meant that Rescue Misison (34.31) was unable to get across and the rider elected to ease and take the sit. Once they hit the turn it was evident that the leaders were gone and Rescue Mission had them cold. By the 200m Song Of The Bell (34.08) and Mister Milton (34.03) started doing their best work and when the run came for Mister Milton he took it and hit the line really well. He looks a nice horse who will get better over more ground. Song Of The Bell did well after enjoying a good run but just wasn’t good enough. Rescue Mission did his best but just probably did a bit more than the first two early which told in the end.

Worth noting: Mister Milton looks a nice type, he is certainly worth following now that he has some winning confidence.

Race 5. 1200M Robert Taranto Doveton Stakes (Time 1:09.43/ 600m 34.46)

CHASM CHRIS SYMONS 1st $8.50
STIRLING GROVE DEAN YENDALL 2nd $3.70
FIRST COMMAND JAMIE MOTT 3rd $3.60F

Sterling Grove (34.15) jumped well and they opted to ease out of the speed battle which was a good move. That left First Command (34.51) to rail through and lead them. It was a pretty good effort by First Command who fought on well to finish third. He isn’t the horse he was and was always going to struggle giving them 5kg. Chasm (34.00) won by a nose and he just got a bit of luck late and that was enough to hold off a fast finishing Sterling Grove who looked to struggle but picked up again late.

Worth noting: Worth following a few of these, they should be able to go their own ways and win some races.

Race 6. 1400M Swettenham Stud Summer Championship (Time 1:23.99/600m 34.93)

WEALTHY LAD DWAYNE DUNN 1st $10
VALEDICTORIAN CRAIG NEWITT 2nd $6
BEN ZENA DANIEL STACKHOUSE 3rd $4F

Valedictorian (34.95) was heavily backed and was able to get across easy from the wide gate. The fact they rode Ben Zena (34.14) back clearly helped his cause and had Ben Zena not gone back I doubt they would have hammered Valedictorian. Once he crossed he was rated really well by Froggy Newitt but unfortunately for his backers he was nailed on the line by Wealthy Lad (34.53) who had the box seat the trip and was ridden really well by Dunn. They settled just off the pace, peeled out at the turn and just did enough. Cellarmaster (35.15) just couldn’t get the run when he needed it and Ben Zena who ended up a mile back worked home well for third.

Worth noting: Ben Zena is flying and did well against his normal pattern, follow.

Race 7. 1200M Robert Hunter (Time 1:10.03/600m 34.63)

PRINCESS NARINE CRAIG NEWITT 1st $4F
MISS MATARI JORDAN MALLYON 2nd $8.50
FABULIST DWAYNE DUNN 3rd $6

Shabangabang (35.10) jumped well and went forward early before being eased up and Avionics (34.94) took the rails run through. Two Hills (34.88) and Show Up (34.54) had the sit on the leaders until the turn where Show Up loomed up well and looked the winner before Miss Mitari (34.22), Princess Narine (34.19) and Fabulist (33.91) came from the pack and burst into contention. It was the heavily backed Princess Narine who got the win albeit narrowly over Miss Mitari. Fabulist was only a head away into third. Avionics did pretty well to fight on like she did after going hard early.

Worth noting: Pretty even bunch, the winner was first up and should improve further.

Race 8. 2000M Mal Seccull Handicap (Time 2:02.67/600m 35.55)

ROYAL MAIL DAMIAN LANE 1st $11
APRES DANNY NIKOLIC 2nd $4.40
DOWN UNDER BOY DANIEL STACKHOUSE 3rd $15

Royal Mail (34.97) took out this one and it was a good effort as he didn’t have the best of runs but was still able to overcome that and salute. Whelan (36.42) and Port Vell (36.09) setup the speed whilst The Big Steel (35.43) and Token Of Honour (35.59) enjoyed good runs off of the leaders. Rounding the turn The Big Steel peeled off the backs and looked to travel well but he got the stitch at the 100m. Apres (35.08) was held up and came off of their backs late to finish second and Down Under Boy (34.73) made good ground late to run into third.

Worth noting: Apres was the unlucky runner and The Big Steel felt the weight over the concluding stages.

——————————————————————————————

Warwick Farm review

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race1

1st Raceway Hugh Bowman
2nd Agueda Peter Robl
3rd Emperor Of Rome Rod Quinn

Emporer of Rome showed its usual speed to lead. Raceway was away about average and made ground to 4th before the turn and then sprinted right away in the straight even though looking a little bit green. Dear Demiwho was well in commission in the betting ring had no speed but finished off very well.

Follow: Raceway, Emperor Of Rome (leading is always an advantage)

Race 2

1st Miss Spoken Blake Shinn
2nd Mickelberg Glyn Schofield
3rd Oceanica P Robl

Pillory didn’t begin well and lost ground. Miss Spoken used its good draw to share the early lead with Cindarockinrella. Pillory made up for its bad start to end up fourth in the run but perhaps that effort told as it was under pressure on the turn. Mickelberg came with a big run but in the end the easier run in front Miss Spoken had made the difference. Oceanica made good ground into third.

Follow: Mickelberg

Race 3

1st Republic Lad Jim Cassidy
2nd Double Crescent Chad Schofield
3rd Tropicana Girl Shaun Guymer

Tropicana Girl began poorly in this and lost a couple of lengths. Double Crescent led them up and kept trying in the straight. Burnout and Republic Lad were both a clear second last and last respectively. Tropicana Girl was ridden well to save ground and kept working to the line for third, she doesn’t really sprint however. The winner Republic Lad showed good dash in the straight to come from last where as Burnout basically just ground home.

Follow: Republic Lad, Double Crescent

Race 4

1st Dystopia Hugh Bowman
2nd Tiger Tees Chris Reith
3rd Youthful Jack Robert Thompson

O’Crikey went very fast in front as is often the case with him. Tiger Tees carted the field up with Dystopia stalking it the whole way. On the turn it seemed Dystopia was going better and when asked for the effort, clearly had the wood on them. O’Crikey kept going “ok” in the run to the line after using a lot of petrol early and perhaps there is a race on offer for him if judged well in front.

Follow: O’Crikey

Race 5

1st Missshiraz Sam Clipperton
2nd Oh My Papa Hugh Bowman
3rd Madam Nash Glyn Schofield

Madam Nash found the lead easily enough here but then had some pressure applied to it by Dayita. The pace as such didn’t look all that fast. Oh My Papa had a cushy run in behind the leaders, came around them in the straight but no sooner had it hit the front, Miss Shiraz that had been back in the field sprinted brilliantly and raced away from them in the run to the line. Not a lot could be said for the beaten horses here I didn’t think. Miss Shiraz was one of the wins of the day.

Follow: Miss Shiraz

Race 6

1st Rolling Pin Hugh Bowman
2nd Hardbreak Hotel Rod Quinn
3rd One Way Ticket Sam Clipperton

Olinoor led St Beune in this. Irish Jig was wide all the way. Rolling Pin got a great run behind the two leaders and looked the winner a long way from home. In the straight it had the best turn of foot particularly taking into account the economical run it had in transit, having the best jockey in Australia on top helped as well. There were definitely a couple of runs here from a future view point to mark down. Those were, One Way Ticket and Our Cannavaro. The right race will come their way soon.

Follow: One Way Ticket, Our Cannavaro

Race 7

1st Social Rank Adam Hyeronimus
2nd Al’s Magic Miss Chad Schofield
3rd La Remlap Sam Clipperton

In a race that had a fair bit of speed on paper it did appear Social Rank would find the front and that is how it turned out. He sustained it all the way for a good win. He has been placed well and is building quite a nice record but much more than 1000m as the grade gets harder might find her out. But I’m Ready and My Vegas both hit the line fairly hard from back in the field but neither tend to win out of turn. Mighty Obvious had a very hard run all the way and didn’t go too badly considering. Mac Chois didn’t live up to the support it found in the betting ring but where there is smoke there is fire, so maybe give it another chance?

Follow: But I’m Ready, My Vegas

Race 8

1st Thumbtacks Glyn Schofield
2nd So So Sure Shaun Guymer
3rd Big Bad Joel Hugh Bowman

The favourite Skateboard buckjumped at the start and tossed the rider off. So So Sure found the lead with Bello stalking it. The pace didn’t look strong. Just about every jockey in the race realised it was a sprint to the line by the time they were approaching the home bend but a lot had missed the boat. The first 4 around the turn stayed in the first 4 positions with Thumbtacks having the slightly superior sprint in the run to the line. It’s not in my opinion that a lot can be taken from due to the pace. Honest Lies finished off very well but isn’t that so often the case with this one?

Follow: Honest Lies (only if you have deep pockets!)

Specials from the meeting: Raceway, Republic Lad, One Way Ticket, Our Cannavaro

Weekend Racing reviews – Saturday 7th January is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Doveton Stakes preview – Caulfield January 7th

darryn — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 22:56:38 +0000

Doveton Stakes preview

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race 5 at Caulfield on Saturday does look a tricky affair. It also looks one of the better quality races of the day. The main reason I say it looks tricky is because some of those that appear the main chances could be best described as enigmas!

I mainly speak of Stirling Grove. This horse on its day would beat this field I have no doubt. Will Saturday be its day? It’s hard to be sure. Even though Caulfield is a track where it has a good record, 1200m is not a distance that it has a good record, although it has won once over the distance from 5 attempts.

Cat’s Pyjamas is the next “enigma” but perhaps to a lesser degree. In all honesty I only really say that due to its first up run this campaign. It went poorly but made amends for that second up with a decent win. Caulfield and 1200m is its go with 4 wins from 5 at Caulfield, and 3 wins from 5 at 1200m.

I am not sure if enigma or gunna is the word to describe the next one. I speak of Cascabel who has tantalisingly run on strongly into second at its last three starts, raising the hopes of its supporters each time only to end up the bridesmaid. It’s a winner at the distance and at the track.

Second Effort is another with some chance. It had some promising Winter form and went ok first up suggesting there will be some improvement to see this time out.

In the end however, I am sticking with the theory that I spoke of last week which is to go with the class horse that has conditions to suit and that is First Command. He has the highest average prizemoney in the race, but for that reason, is asked to carry no less than 5kg more than his rivals. He heads into this race first up and has a 50% strike rate at his 6 runs first up. He has found some support in early betting indicating to me he is on song. I think he is the safest way to go. Perhaps a “saver” on Stirling Grove wouldn’t go astray (the other class in the race on its day).

Doveton Stakes preview – Caulfield January 7th is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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T20 Big Bash – Half Time Review

darryn — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 09:08:41 +0000

By guest contributor Greg Evans

With 3 rounds of the Big Bash played out of 7, we are practically at the half-way point of the regular season competition and so with some “runs on the board” this is a good time to analyse how the competition is unfolding.

What follows is a basic summary of the form for each of the 8 teams in the competition with a view to identifying the teams most likely to make-up the Top 4 qualifiers for the finals.

#1 Melbourne Renegades

Easily the biggest disappointment of the competition so far. The round 1 capitulation to Adelaide was followed by an improved, yet still sub-standard performance against Perth. Round 3 was another improvement with a come-from-behind upset win over the Sydney Thunder, so with a 1 win – 2 loss record they are still in the competition but are definitely under performing. Of greatest concern is the fielding, with plenty of misfields and dropped catches (which cost them victory in the 2nd game) and the wayward captaincy of Andrew McDonald who, with his poor bowling changes and fielding positions looks to be out of his league. Good fielding is an often undervalued aspect of T20 cricket and McDonalds captaincy has failed to really pull the team together and gel them as a unit. The team has loads of talent, but are mostly playing as individuals. Body language is typically poor and the energy and enthusiasm of team mates supporting each other in the field (usually associated with strong units) is largely absent. With Brad Hodge returning from injury and some individuals (Nannes, Afridi) starting to (finally) come into form they have been improving and there is optimism that they will come good as a team. They are currently firing on only about 2 pistons, however, and they will need to win 3 out of 4 of their remaining games to qualify for the finals so there is not much room for error. If it comes together in time and they qualify they are likely to return to favouritism and would be very be dangerous in the finals. However, there is a risk that Afridi has picked up an injury in the Thunder game and he may lose game time which would be a significant setback to the teams building momentum.

#2 Hobart Hurricanes

At the other end of the spectrum, Hobart is undefeated over the first 3 rounds and the market has changed them from being the least to the most favoured team in the competition. Perhaps the market has finally realised that bowlers can win matches as Hobart have proved by successfully defending totals of 140, 169 and 171 in their first 3 games. Some of the batsmen have found some form, particularly Phil Jacques who has played some solid innings which have given the batting order stability if not set the world on fire with his run-rate. Jacques anchor-like innings have allowed explosive players like Travis Burt and Owais Shah to play with freedom and confidence. Unfortunately Hobart have lost main strike bowler Hilfenhaus to the test team, which weakens them a little. Hilfenhaus performed admirably in the Melbourne test and so is unlikely to be back for Hobart any time soon, but if he flops in Sydney he may be pushed out of the team team by a fit Ryan Harris so it’s not out of the question for him to be back before the finals. Xavier Doherty has been in great form and is also captaining the team well while Rana Naved has been a feature of the death overs and picking up wickets consistently even though Krejzas form has been patchy. They should be renamed the “Hobart Stranglers” they way they are choking the life out of opposition run-chases. They have 3 of their remaining 4 games at home so are near certainties to make the finals.

#3 Brisbane Heat

No huge surprise for this team to be languishing near the bottom of the table with no wins from 3 outings. The hype surrounding the NZ players was easily the biggest red-herring of the tournament build up as not only was Vettori injured and unavailable, but McCullum is now off playing for Otago and also unavailable. It’s been reported that McCullum will only play 1 more game for Brisbane (when he can fit it in) and Vettori may not play at all. Vettori didn’t even travel with the team to Perth, so it’s quite clear these two don’t have any great commitment to Brisbane. The batting depth has been exposed and while the market has practically written off this franchise it is not all bad news for Brisbane. Matt Hayden has shown glimpses of some good form and has the potential to carry the team, while Peter Forest put in a good innings in Perth. Dan Christian, who has been on the fringe of the test team, looks likely to have missed out for now and should remain in the Brisbane side which is also a plus. Also, Ryan Harris has returned from injury to play 2 games and due to the outstanding performance of the Australian test bowlers is likely to miss selection for the Sydney test, so will probably play even more games for Brisbane in this competition. The team has also picked up South African all-rounder Van Der Merwe, who is unknown by most and may be capable of surprising a few with his orthodox spinners and power hitting.

#4 Sydney Thunder

The Thunder have started the season well with 2 wins from their first two games, however it should have become obvious now to even blind Freddy that there are some serious problems with this “team”. Chasing 153 in the first game it was David Warner who blasted his way to 102 at a strike rate of 200. An outstanding piece of individual brilliance and to say that he carried the team that day is a massive understatement. Yet Warner is unlikely to play again this season due to test committments, so where does that leave the Thunder ? Enter super-star #2 for game #2 – Chris Gayle who blasted 100 at a strike rate of 185 to chase down a total of 155. Almost equally impressive it was another major carry of a team that did not have it’s lack of depth exposed. Finally, in game #3 they were exposed when, cruising to victory on the back of another Chris Gayle innings, he got out in the 18th over and they capitulated. One can only imagine what the dressing room of this team must be like, but it is obvious that the other batsmen in the team (some who are quite good at domestic level) are shadowed (and probably feeling demoralised) by the rock stars that they can’t live up to. To add to their problems Doug Bollinger appears to have aggravated his hamstring injury and will miss more game time. The other bowlers are holding up ok, however, despite their inexperience. The question is whether this team can hold it together when the pressure really starts to mount and their deficiencies are exposed. Opposition teams are starting to learn to manage the strike to marginalise Chris Gayle. They may yet make the finals off another 2 Gayle innings, but they are a massive risk if he gets injured and there is a big question around whether Gayle can continue to carry this team like he has (and is expected to).

#5 Melbourne Stars

Another team which is laden with star power but is somewhat under-performing. Boasting one of the best T20 batting line-ups of the competition Dave Hussey and Rob Quiney have been stand-outs, but with the likes of Cameron White, George Bailey, Matthew Wade and Adam Voges in the side this team bats deep and they have not yet failed to score 150+ in their first 3 games. Clint McKay has been in great bowling form and Shane Warne has been bowling solidly with a knack for picking up crucial wickets. They have been well supported by young up-and-comer James Faulkner who looks a handy all-rounder and who cleverly picked up the crucial wicket of Chris Gayle in game #1. The English imports Luke Wright and Jade Dernbach have been disappointing to date, despite their strong T20 pedigrees, but there is optimism that they are still acclimatising to local conditions and fitting in with the team so they can be expected to improve as the competition progresses. Cameron White is the Australian T20 captain, so he has plenty of experience and respect, though his recent form with the bat has been disappointing and he recently has come across a bit apathetic and bordering on arrogant which suggests complacency met be a concern. With 1 win and 2 losses the Stars need to win 3 of the remaining 4 games to qualify so, like the Renegades, there is not a lot of room for error. Keep an eye on the English players for signs of improvement and also the interaction between White and Warne because there is a potential ego clash here and these two need to be of one mind. If this team keeps improving and plays to it’s potential they will be very hard to beat at the business end of the competition.

#6 Adelaide Strikers

Last years Big Bash Winners were well favoured pre-tournament, however, losing Dan Christian to Brisbane and Shaun Tait to the Renegades was always going to hurt them. Keiron Pollard was ruled out of the competition before a ball had been bowled this year, yet there are still some things to like about this team and they demolished an under-cooked Renegades in game #1 at home to kick start the competition. Game #2 saw Adelaide fall victim to the Gayle Force in Sydney, despite playing solidly, but the wheels have continued to fall off this team with big hitting Dan Harris copping a side strain injury. Game #3 at home saw the Adelaide batting order surrender meekly to the Hobart Stranglers and reports suggest that invaluable international all-rounder Johan Botha (who has been a centrepiece of the spin-centric Adelaide attack) has only 1 more game to play before returning to South Africa. Alfonso Thomas has been solid, but not spectacular in the pace bowling department and Kane Richardson has shown promise though the bowling attack overall does look a bit soft and green. Also, classy longer-form batsmen Klinger and Ferguson have not really fired. It’s not all bad, however, with Tom Cooper returning to the squad with a handy 43 at a stroke rate of 159 in a losing side last start. Overall, Adelaide are a well captained side, but with injuries to key players, the withdrawal of Botha and only 1 more game scheduled to be played at home it’s hard to see how Adelaide can win 3 of their remaining 4 games to qualify for the finals.

#7 Sydney Sixers

The Sixers have started the competition well, with 2 wins and 1 loss – which was to the undefeated Hobart Hurricanes in Hobart, so there is no great shame in that loss. They have one of the best pace attacks in the competition with the ageless Brett Lee spearheading an attack which features recent test player Mitchell Starc and the promising Josh Hazelwood. The exciting youngster Pat Cummins is also on the roster and there are whispers about that he may recover from his heel injury sooner than expected so he may feature at some point. Shane Watson is also on the roster and, if fit, he is no doubt included into the Australian test squad. However, like Shaun Marsh and Ryan Harris before him, Watson may get a surprise game or two in the Big Bash in an attempt to prove his fitness. Old spinner Stuart MacGill has proven he still has a bag of tricks and (at home) on the spin friendly SCG he has performed well with the ball even if he is a sluggish liability in the field he takes the pressure off the spin of Steve Smith who can, at times, be erratic with the ball. The Sixers batting is at times a little fragile, however, with only one score over 150. Their two wins relied heavily on the now unavailable Brad Haddin for game #1 and then Dwayne Bravo for game #3. Bravo has been great with the bat and in the field, yet he is reported to only be contracted for 4 games with the Sixers so most likely only has 1 more game to play. Smith and Henriques are ungainly sloggers, but they can get runs, while Lumb and Maddinson at the top of the order have been misfiring somewhat. Smith is a young stand-in captain with Haddin is on test duties, but he appears to be doing a reasonable job as the team seems to have good energy and the right buzz in the field. They only have 1 more home game, but only need to win 2 out of their remaining 4 to qualify for the finals so they are likely to scrape in, but unless the batting improves they may struggle at the business end.

#8 Perth Scorchers

One of the surprise packets of the competition so far, the Perth Scorchers (made up largely of the West Australian domestic players who have been struggling in shorter form cricket this season) have won 2 and lost 1 game so far without setting the world alight and they remain “under the radar” for most. Excluding the 1 failure against Hobart in game #1, the under-rated import Herschelle Gibbs has returned to his destructive best and is in great form. Like Gayle or Warner he has the capability of winning games off his own bat and he’s been getting good support from Marcus North and Mitchell Marsh at the top of the order. Yet to see the middle order really fire, but the talent is there even if the form isn’t. Admittedly, game #2 was won almost single-handedly by Shaun Marsh who has since moved on to the test team, but if he fails in the Sydney Test like he did in Melbourne, he might be back for Perth sooner than many think. Norths captaincy has been excellent and while Collingwood (like Gibbs) has been considered a “lesser import”, his inclusion in the circle and with the “Sheep Dog” Hogg in the outfield (who looks as fit as anyone) Perth is now the strongest fielding team in the competition and good fielding is very important in T20 cricket. Hogg and Michael Beer have formed a very handy spin partnership which is perhaps second only to Hobart’s Doherty/Krejza combination. Mitchell Marsh and the other pace bowlers have been a bit disappointing without being diabolical, yet the the recent return of Coulter-Nile should bolster the pace department. Perth only need 2 more wins to make the finals, but with everything coming together nicely for this team after a slow start they do look likely to be contenders and they may be a good chance to secure a home final. The market is only just waking up to them.

Summary

T20 is a volatile game and individual matches can be very hard to predict even if it is fun to try. This competition has already thrown up plenty of surprises and massive momentum swings in games. One piece of individual brilliance can turn a match so one thing you can take for certain is that there are no certainties in this competition. Even so, on the basis of the above analysis we’ll have a shot at predicting the top 4 finalists and their possible pre-final prices as :-

1. Hobart Hurricanes – 3.85
2. Perth Scorchers – 4.15
3. Melbourne Stars – 3.70
4. Sydney Sixers – 4.30

Final Warning – Beware the Renegades. If they can qualify they’ll be a major threat in the finals.

T20 Big Bash – Half Time Review is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Canterbury BMW Handicap preview

darryn — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 22:29:35 +0000

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Canterbury race 6 on Saturday looks to be one of the most competitive races of the day with a number of horses putting the writing on the wall recently as to the good form they are in.

I speak of horses such as, Wazn, Circle Of Power, One Way Ticket, Regal Banter, Rolling Pin, Titbit, and perhaps to a lesser degree World Wide who ran a cracker last start. In all honesty, none of this group would shock by winning the race.

The horse that just has that x-factor in my opinion however is Wazn. Some of his wins have just been that little bit special and his last start win was one of them. If you watch the horse in the run he was always travelling comfortably and actually made ground basically under his own steam to about the 150m mark when the jockey reminded him he now needed to go on and win the race. It was an arrogant win in all honesty and it was early in his campaign, possibly before he was at true peak fitness. You can only imagine improvement going into this race.

If you were to find any chink in the armour at all for Wazn, could it be that he is second up off a short let up? I must say, I am at times a subscriber to the second up syndrome theory. At some point of the campaign he will probably start looking for a bit more ground. That and his racing pattern of getting back which is always some risk are the only real reasons I could see him being beaten on Saturday.

In all honesty, the $5 on offer seems value but I suppose when weighed up against the fact I also named several other horses in form you wouldn’t want to be taking really short odds. My advice however is to take the $5, as an impressive win here, will see him start a lot shorter in all other runs this campaign.

Of the rest of the group I named – One Way Ticket ran second to Wazn at its last start and goes around the best value here at about $17.

It certainly looks a good race on paper.

Canterbury BMW Handicap preview is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend racing reviews – December 17th

darryn — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 22:55:06 +0000

Flemington review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 1. 1000M Spotless Plate (Time 56.81/600m 32.87)

SAMAREADY    CRAIG NEWITT    1st    $6.50
MRS GRAY         LUKE NOLEN        2nd   $8
ALZORA              DEAN HOLLAND   3rd    $31

Early speed was setup by General Hap who ran last and Absolute Spirit who managed to hold on for fourth. First and second Samaready and Mrs Gray both were able to box seat in the run and both finished the race off well. The winner Samaready looked very impressive over the final 200m and got a good rap from trainer Mick Price after the race. A short break is on the cards now before a shot at the Blue Diamond.

Worth noting: Samaready was the only runner to break 22s for the final 400m (21.98)

Race 2. 1200M Fiesta Star Handicap (Time 1:07.88/600m 33.59)

JUGAHLATION    BEN MELHAM              1st    $7
RORKE’S DRIFT   KATELYN MALLYON    2nd    $8.50
BEAU VALLON    CHRIS SYMONS          3rd    $4.60

Another small field and Nicholls Court was well fancied and started favourite,led the field along but by the 600m it was quite evident he wasn’t travelling and he ran last. The horses that were second and third at that stage of the race were Rorke’s Drift and Beau Vallon and they managed to finish second and third. Jugahlation was the eventual winner and he was able to sit towards the tail throughout and come with a really good sprint from the 600m and won quite comfortably in the end.

Worth noting: Pay to forgive Nicholls Court. Jugahlation and Rorke’s Drift only two to break 23s for the final 400m.

Race 3. 2540M Bitalli (Time2:39.41/600m 34.78)

SHEZATEN    STEPHEN BASTER    1st    $7
SUPREMACY    CRAIG NEWITT        2nd    $4
APPREHEND    JORDAN MALLYON 3rd    $3.50F

Staying race of the day and here we seen a strong on pace effort from the winner Shezaten. Shezaten led all of the way except for a moment towards the end of the race when headed by Apprehend who had been second in the run throughout. Apprehend just ran out of petrol however as Shezaten fought back and Supremacy who took an eternity to wind up hit the line to make it a close photo but the ex NZ runner just missed. The race was on pace dominated and on the sectionals everything in the race ran pretty well.

Worth noting: Supremacy, Count Lotus and Mr Riggs were the only runners to break 12s for the final 200m (11.86), (11.91) and (11.92).

Race 4. 1630M Skipton (Time 1:39.33/600m33.25)

SNOW COVER            CRAIG NEWITT         1st    $5
TURNITUP                    LUKE NOLEN           2nd    $3.20F
DOWN UNDER BOY    STEVEN ARNOLD    3rd    $13

Sylvan Lodge played up early here and that through the speed map out of the window a little and left Turnitup in front early before Port Vell dashed around the field but later felt the effects of that effort and was no challenge at the business end. Turnitup ended up getting a nice run and he fought on well to be beaten a length. The winner Snow Cover raced closer to the speed than usual and stalked Turnitup into the straight and was just too good for him over the final 400m.

Worth noting: Snow Cover was the only horse to break 33s for the final 600m (32.93)

Race 5. 1420M Beachside Handicap (Time 1:23.60/600m 34.68)

VINTAGE TRIUMPH    BRAD RAWILLER    1st    $21
TERPSICHORE          MICHELLE PAYNE    2nd    $5
WHAT A BEAUTY       DAMIAN LANE    3rd    $4.40F

They came from everywhere to contest this race but it was Hayes who managed to walk away the winner when Vintage Triumph who enjoyed a nice run from on the pace got the money. She is no world beater but was just given a good ride and that is what got the job done. Of the two leaders Creed managed to hold on for fourth while Riverina’s Girl was 11th. Terpischore and What A Beauty were working home well from the tail but the task was just a bit big for them and they fell short. Congratulations to an old mate of mine Crotts who strapped the winner, his first in the city.

Worth noting: God Help Her ran fifth and she is a nice type, a win is pretty close if they can find a suitable race, maybe mid week.

Race 6. 1420M Cleanevent Handicap (Time 1:22.91/600m 34.69)

BY THE WAY        JASON BENBOW          1st    $13
CONQUERING JOURNEY    LUKE NOLEN               2nd    $5.50F
OUR SPIRITS BAY               STEPHEN BASTER       3rd    $17

Early speed was set here by Jungle Ruler who ran last and Produced who ran third last. Alpha Proxima was third throughout and I thought his effort was pretty good to hold on for fifth. Conquering Journey and Our Spirits Bay raced fourth/fifth throughout and finished off pretty well but they were just close enough throughout the run but they didn’t have that zip at the end. The winner By The Way clearly had the zip on his side. He was last throughout and as the passage opened up for him in the straight he let down really well. His sectionals were miles better than the rest.

Worth noting: All a pretty consistent bunch. Happy to back any of the first five in suitable.

Race 7. 1000M Red Tempo (Time 56.06/600m 32.15)

THE SOLDIER          MICHAEL WALKER   1st    $3.40F
FALCO STAR           CRAIG NEWITT          2nd    $4
JOHNNY FIASCO    MICHELLE PAYNE    3rd    $11

Not a great deal to write about here. The winner was exceptional I thought. He jumped well sat on the pace and he never at one stage looked in trouble, in fact had you backed him you were counting the money pretty early here as he extended his lead at the midway point of the race and then let down over the final 400m like a good horse and put it beyond doubt. Falco Star did his best work late and ran well into second but he was no match for The Soldier. Johnny Fiasco held on well for third after being second in the run.

Worth noting: The Soldier looked a class above them here, best last 400m (21.78)

Race 8. 2000M Comic Court Handicap (Time 2:02.06/600m 34.61)

ELUSIVE KING           BRAD RAWILLER    1st    $2.70F
THE BIG STEEL          BEN MELHAM          2nd    $3.50
COLDENS CHOICE    CHRIS SYMONS       3rd    $7

The market suggested this was a two horse race all week and that’s the way it played out. The Big Steel was looking to turn around a 3L defeat handed out by Elusive King last start and he may well have done so had he not raced all over the place over the final 200m. As he was in the lead Elusive King was looking for a run and took a run up the inside before The Big Steel shifted in and made contact with Elusive King before they got going again to the line where he held on. It didn’t take long for the siren to sound and after seeing the replay it was quite clear he would lose the race on protest, and he did. I look forward to Elusive King V The Big Steel 3 in a couple of weeks. Persian Star is a nice mare who finished the race off well and that suggests she is getting back to her best.

Worth noting: Worth following Persian Star over further on her run here.

——————————————————————————————

Warwick Farm review

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race1

1st   Daymo            Glyn Schofield
2nd   Racing Eight   Nash Rawiller
3rd   Burnout       Hugh Bowman

Blended set a fast pace.Senta D’Amour and Racing Eight ensured the pace got even quicker. Daymo had a dream run. Burnout couldn’t really keep up and got too far out of its ground. Daymo took advantage of the good run for the win. Blended dropped out badly. Racing Eight fought on very well, whilst Burnout ran on fairly.

Follow: Racing Eight

Race 2

1st   Straight Albert   Hugh Bowman
2nd   Irish Jig           Corey Brown
3rd   Al’s Gold       Adam Hyeronimus

Al’s Gold and Flying Empress both were slow to go. St Beune bolted in front and was gone on the turn. Straight Albert had a good run midfield, sprinted on the point of the turn and went on for a pretty good win. The two who missed the start ran on ok but were entitled to.

None to follow

Race 3

1st   Diamond Earth Peter Robl
2nd   De Shamekh   Nash Rawiller
3rd   Flying Snitzel   Tom Berry

Diamond Earth made its intentions clear right from the get go and was pretty impressive in leading all the way here. De Shemekh stuck to its guns chasing all the way and was making ground on the line as the winner was stopping. Flying Snitzel was a mile out of its ground and also ran on well. In all honesty I think all credit goes to the winner however who did it at both ends.

Follow: De Shamekh

Race 4

1st   Permit               Nash Rawilller
2nd   Scouting Wide   Sam Clipperton
3rd   Saint Saiala       Nathan Berry

Shawnee Girl was slow to begin but in a 2200m event I don’t think this mattered. Mikiyama worked hard and wide all the way before eventually finding the lead and you can forget it ran. Permit got the smuggle all the way and took advantage of this good run when the split came in the straight to record a fair win. Scouting Wide and Saint Saiala took off wide before the bend and both kept coming to the line. Given the runs they had in transit they were the equal of the winner, in particular Scouting Wide, who is the one to follow.

Follow: Scouting Wide

Race 5

1st    News Alert   Hugh Bowman
2nd   Rarefied       Nash Rawiller
3rd   Stratana       Corey Brown

Stratana was able to set an even pace here and wasn’t beaten that far but perhaps wants something just slightly easier. Rarefied got a good run in transit and was only narrowly beaten on the line whilst Catapulted and Recorrido got back. In a blanket finish News Alert who had been smoking its pipe midfield got the bob in. Catapulted was pushed very wide on the bend and that left a bit flat footed but it did finish off very well in the last 100m, whilst Recorrdio went looking for inside runs but it didn’t seem to finish off. After it was so impressive last start, the jury is out in regards to it.

Follow: Catapulted

Race 6

1st   Monton              Hugh Bowman
2nd   Kontiki Park       Brenton Avdulla
3rd   King Lionheart   Nash Rawiller

Erewhon won the battle for the lead with Zara Dancer sitting outside of it. Erewhon is yet another horse with promising three-year-old form not going on with it at this stage. Viva Las was stuck wide so eventually worked to the position outside the leader. Shadowfax, who is simply not up to this grade, got well out the back and was never a chance. Monton was similar to its last start where it simply sprinted too well for them in the straight. And in hindsight was sent around over the odds. There could be bigger things ahead. Kontiki Park was clearly the second best run in the race and thus finished second. Fibrillation may have confirmed its “gunna” status by getting a mile back and making fair ground in the straight. More ground is its only hope I would say.

Follow: Kontiki Park

Race 7

1st   Capital Commander   Nash Rawiller
2nd   Rose Of Peace            Brenton Avdulla
3rd   Next The Universe       Hugh Bowman

Capital Commander found the lead as expected. It didn’t set a breakneck speed and that allowed it to hang on for the win even thought it looked as if it may be beaten 10 times in the straight. The first up run of Rose Of Peace was excellent and there is a win not too far away for sure. Next The Universe also finished its race off well and can be followed. Gunawati had the beautiful run behind the leader but could not take advantage of it. We Betcha did nothing today and it’s worth noting that he can only be backed reliably on slow or heavy going.

Follow: Rose Of Peace, Next The Universe

Race 8

1st   Eight Bills          Hugh Bowman
2nd   Lady La Douce   Chris Reith
3rd   Shamus             Corey Brown

Good pace here with Platinum Choice, Jackpot Queen and Floral Insight all wanting to argue over the lead. Something from the back probably had to win and it was H Bowman at his best on Eight Bills that made the difference. He tracked them through closer to the fence after doing nothing for most of the race and that gave him the win over Lady La Douce. Key West was another to also work home well. Shamus had a good run in transit but wasn’t good enough in the end. Not a great deal can be said about the rest.

Follow: Lady La Douce

Specials from the meeting: Racing Eight, Scouting Wide, Catapulted, Kontiki Park, Rose Of Peace

Weekend racing reviews – December 17th is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Rail position can be important

David — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 14:01:35 +0000

Australian race clubs use a moveable running rail to ensure that the surface remains as even as possible both close to the rail and further out. If the rail never moved then obviously the inside section of the track would get a lot more wear and tear than the outside and this would create an uneven surface.

So when do we as punters need to consider the position of the rail as a key factor in analyzing the form? Well as a general rule the further the rail is out, the more the leading horses are favoured compared to those racing back in the field that are forced to come wide. There are four main factors to consider when assessing the importance of the rail position:

(1) Width of track/tightness of the turns
(2) Length of the straight
(3) Seasonal conditions
(4) Most recent rail positions

(1) Tight turns and a narrow track mean that it’s very difficult to pull out and go wide around a pack of horses to make up ground. Moonee Valley and Canterbury are relatively tight tracks and this characteristic is exacerbated when the rail is out. There is definitely money to be made in backing on-pace horses at either of these tracks when the rail is out. In contrast the rail position is much less important at spacious tracks like Flemington or Randwick.

(2) The importance of the rail position is increased at tracks with a short straight such as Moonee Valley where there is very little opportunity to make up ground after the turn. Moonee Valley’s straight measures just 173 metres which is less than 40% of the distance of Flemington’s straight (450m). So it makes sense that a horse leading at the turn at Moonee Valley is far more likely to hang on and win than at other tracks like Flemington.

(3) Seasonal conditions are another factor to consider. During winter the inside part of a track can get quite chopped up and be ‘heavier’ than the outside, thus favouring the swoopers. However the opposite can occur during drier times, when the inside can become compacted and race faster than the lusher outside parts of the track. This ‘fast lane’ near the rail favours on-pace horses.

(4) Our race clubs are good at providing information on their schedule for the moveable rail. For example here is Canterbury:

20th November – 3 metres out
4th December – 6 metres out
18th December – Inside
15th January – 2 metres out
29th January – 4 metres out
4th February – 6 metres out
13th February – 8 metres out
19th February– Inside

You can see that the February 13th meeting is highly likely to be dominated by on-pace horses. And for the February 19th meeting they will be racing on the inner part of the track which hasn’t been raced on for basically two months. As a keen punter you can do your own research and consider the four main factors above when analyzing the importance of the rail position for today’s meeting.

Rail position can be important is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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The Villiers Stakes preview

darryn — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 13:55:08 +0000

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

The Villiers Stakes, which is usually run at Randwick fits into that category of “big Randwick mile race” that generally is as open as the Sydney Heads. It does not usually have the class of a Doncaster or an Epsom but is generally just as challenging from a punting point of view. This year it will be staged at Warwick Farm and the challenge in terms of finding the winner is as fierce as ever.

To my way of thinking, the best place to start is to name the horse I think is the best lay in the race and that is Shadowfax. It’s a horse that can look impressive on its day against average rivals but it is also one that on more than on occasion has let the punters down including last start. I definitely see this as a harder race for it and just can’t have it. Its biggest asset on Saturday is the bloke sitting on top, he is very good!

King Lionheart and Lightinthenite shape as the two best chances in the race in my opinion. King Lionheart also fits into the beaten favourite category last start but based on proven class previously I am prepared to forgive it that run.

Lightinthenite gets the weight advantage and whilst it as such hasn’t proven its class, it was one of the only runners to seriously chase Monton last start.It could be the horse on the way up and is a Waterhouse/Rawiller runner which as we know is a great combination to have on your side.

Monton obviously beat King Lionheart and Lightinthenite last start, somewhat surprisingly to the market, so for that reason has to be given its chance here.

The other two runners I would highlight at slightly longer odds are Fibrillation and Kontiki Park based on their last runs. Both went very well and could make improvement going into this.

New Day Rising and My Destiny are obviously both in form but this is not their race in my opinion from a class point of view.

One probably could go on and name other chances as I suggested in the opening paragraph, but you can’t tip them all.

The Villiers Stakes preview is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend racing reviews – Saturday December 10th

darryn — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 11:12:55 +0000

Flemington review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 2. 1610M Johnstaff Projects Handicap

LET’S BE HAPPY   JACK HILL                1st   $9.50
BLUE RIBBON         MICHELLE PAYNE   2nd    $2.20F
PLACEMENT           BEN MELHAM           3rd   $5.50

Always Discreet jumped well and set the speed but was unable to kick on when it mattered. Let’s Be Happy balanced up well down the outside and continued her winning run. Blue Ribbon was well backed but quite poorly ridden. She got too far back and was looking for runs but ran up behind them early in the straight while Let’s Be Happy had already established a winning break. Although it must be said even when Blue Ribbon found clear running room she struggled to show the same turn of foot she had in recent starts.

Worth noting – Great effort by little known trainer Mick Clark to register six wins this year with Let’s Be Happy.

Race 3. 1410M Victoria University Handicap

LONHREIGN      LUKE NOLEN      1st   $8
MARCELLUS   DEAN HOLLAND 2nd    $16
CHASSE           MARK ZAHRA      3rd   $18

Both favoured and well backed runners Motorised and Better Be Sure looked to have good runs but were very poor. Lonhreign sat back, relaxed nicely and gathered them in very easily. Marcellus worked home well over the final 200m in his first start for 12 months.

Worth noting - the winner looks well suited to a mile.

Race 4. 1720M Lanec Services

TOKEN OF HONOUR   DWAYNE DUNN   1st   $8
MAGIC ME      LUKE NOLEN         2nd    $2.90F
LORD WIMBLE              DANNY NIKOLIC   3rd    $3.40

With Magic Me coming over from Adelaide and Lord Wimble stepping up from the country/provincial circuits punters thought this was close to a race in two. Both enjoyed great runs as did Token of Honour who enjoyed a nice sit just off the speed with Dunn getting cover which was crucial due to the heavy wind. He worked home well for his first win for a while and confirmed the middle of the track was the place to be. Token of Honour is no world-beater though and Hayes had believed he was a wet tracker and a jumper. Unlikely to be a strong form race.

Worth noting – The win continued the rejuvenation of David Hayes’ training career since the move to Euroa.

Race 5. 1200M Dorevitch Pathology

TRANSLATION   MICHAEL WALKER   1st   $31
CASCABEL         CRAIG NEWITT            2nd    $8
THAT’S NOT IT   CHRIS SYMONS          3rd   $5.50EF

Looked a difficult race on paper with little pace and many winning chances. That’s how it panned out with an outsider getting up and just a head separating the first three over the line. They slowed the tempo down mid race and it was the old timer Translation that raced on his own along the inside that had the best of it. He is more of a 1400m horse but appreciated the dry track and a clever ride by Walker. Like all backmarkers Cascabel is a horse that always needs luck and he was just unable to get going early but hit the line well.

Worth noting – you don’t have to race around a bend to have luck in running play a part in a race.

Race 6. 2000M Zouki Western Health Cup

FULL PEAL                       BEN MELHAM      1st   $1.70F
ENCHANTING WATERS   TERRY BARRY   2nd    $21
CHEERFUL JURY              DWAYNE DUNN    3rd   $81

Full Peal continued on his winning ways and enjoyed a nice run in behind the pace maker Abitofado. Once he got clear halfway down the straight he was still on the bit and went to the line in a headlock. Excellent ride by Melham and a very nice horse. Stayers who can put themselves in the right spot just off the speed and then quicken are always going to be hard to beat.

Worth noting – plenty of Cups talk about this horse, but whether that’s the Hobart, Perth or even bigger Cups is yet to be decided.

Race 7. 1410M Del Re National Food Group

AGRIPPA                       DWAYNE DUNN         1st   $6
AT THE HEADS              BEN MELHAM            2nd   $4.60EF
SUPREME DE LAGO   STEPHEN BASTER   3rd    $31

Wealthy Lad raced quite keenly while At The Heads enjoyed the gun run. To the line this was a two horse fight between Agrippa and At The Heads, with Agrippa got the better of the local galloper on the line to bring up a double for the in-form Dwayne Dunn. At The Heads was very good and he will improve second up. Cuban Sunday is ticking over nicely and once he gets to 1800m+ back him in suitable company.

Worth noting – Trainer John Sadler notched up a double here and two Flemington-trained horses fought out the finish. Home-track horses often find a length.

Race 8. 1000M Kane Constructions

DELEGANCE            MICHAEL WALKER   1st   $8
RAVENOUS LASS   STEPHEN BASTER   2nd    $19
BEAU VALLON          CHRIS SYMONS         3rd   $13

Second of the straight races and they were both won by Michael Walker rides up along the rail. Delegance was ready to with the blinkers off and fought on well for a tough win. Ravenous Lass and Beau Vallon worked home well for the placings. Star Salute copped a check at the 300m and should have finished closer but still wouldn’t have won.

Worth noting – another winner for a Flemington trainer.

——————————————————————————————

Rosehill review

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st    Bello                          Nash Rawiller
2nd   Pink Power       Chad Schofield
3rd   Diamond To Pegasus   Nathan Berry

The first event of the day for the three-year-olds I believe came down to class. Peter Snowden sent out the virtually equal favourites in the shape of Bello and Barbados. Barbados had a fitness edge on paper over its stablemate but Bello in the end had the class edge. It did boast a 3.5 length second to Aeronautical last campaign and he would have taken care of these fairly easily had he been in the race. Pink Power was on the pace all the way and tried very hard whilst Diamond To Pegasus got a long way back and ran on fairly into third. After doing a bit of work and leading Barbados dropped out badly.

Follow: Bello, Pink Power

Race 2

1st    Embark       Josh Adams
2nd   Happy Hussy Chad Schofield
3rd   Sindarin       Nash Rawiller

You are probably sick of me saying it but leading at Rosehill is a clear advantage. Embark led here and led them a merry dance indeed at a moderate pace. Whilst Happy Hussy looked to have Embark on toast several times in the straight, Embark kept finding and found too much on the line. Sindarin was a good run into third.

Follow: Sindarin

Race 3

1st   Titbit               Glyn Schofield
2nd   Fill The Page   Tom Berry
3rd   Lycra Lass      Blake Spriggs

Genuine pace here with General’s Sniper and Oakfield Beauty in front. Titbit was traveling well on the turn and peeled wide. In the end it only plugged away for the win however. The run of Lycra Lass was good in this after switching path in the straight and Dreamworker made good ground down the outside also.

Follow: Lycra Lass

Race 4

1st   King Gladiator    Hugh Bowman
2nd   Tropicana Girl      Corey Brown
3rd   Winning Glory   Nash Rawiller

In the end this was finally the race to suit King Gladiator. There has been no doubting the horse has ability but he has been a frustrating punting proposition always running on from the back. In this race the pace was genuine and he travelled sweetly at the back of the pack. When asked for an effort he let down nicely. Not much can truly be said for those finishing behind him given he gave them a start and a beaten. Winning Glory was somehow sent out around about 7/4 favourite and I can only presume that’s because he gets on the pace and generally looks a winning chance in the straight most times. The problem is, most times he also does not go on with it! Tom’s Rocket probably went a bit too hard in front but perhaps can get away with one of these races soon. The jockey on Tropicana Girl was outridden on the turn and the run was good under the circumstances.

Follow: Tropicana Girl, Tom’s Rocket

Race 5

1st   New Day Rising     Chad Schofield
2nd   Tromso       Hugh Bowman
3rd   Kontiki Park          Tom Berry

There were a few that were keen to contest the lead here. Strumming finally found that role with Scarf outside it. New Day Rising got the suck along behind them and moved into the clear early in the straight. The result of having this easy run was that he quickly moved past Scarf in the straight and then it was left to Tromso and Kontiki Park to chase. Chase they did but realistically were no chance of picking up the winner.

Follow: Kontiki Park

Race 6

1st   Sea Galleon       Glyn Schofield
2nd   Nextanix             Jeff Penza
3rd   Count Encosta   Brenton Avdulla

As expected Sea Galleon recorded a fairly easy win here. He has been the horse on the way up and when they went fairly crazy in front, Glyn Schofield must have been giggling to himself. So much so that he let the horse slide before the home turn and established a winning break. Usually you wouldn’t like your jockey going this far from home but when the others have spent their bikkies and you are still traveling this well, it was a good move. Nextanix and Count Encosta are frustrating horses as they seem to run in in whatever they are put in and they did the same here. Assertive Billy didn’t measure up to the mark here after back to back wins in weaker grade.

Follow: None to follow

Race 7

1st    Wazn                   Chad Schofield
2nd   One Way Ticket   Sam Clipperton
3rd   Regal Banter         Josh Adams

The market suggested Wazn was the one to beat here, its record of 4 wins from 13 for about $160,000 in prizemoney also suggested it had a class edge. Throw in the claim for the talented Chad Schofield and if it was fit it was going to be hard to beat. It was a confident and almost arrogant ride as he let the horse make ground of its own accord only giving it a tap early in the straight to remind him he had a job to do and then didn’t really go for it until 100m out when it really found the line. The second, third and fourth horses were all credible runs but were just outclassed, where as Peck, in my opinion was a false favourite and ran accordingly. Bookies will be happy to send it around favourite again if they are allowed I would imagine.

Follow: Wazn

Race 8

1st    So So Sure      Corey Brown
2nd   Rocker             Glyn Schofield
3rd   Liechtenstein   Sam Clipperton

O’Crikey led as he usually does with So So Sure outside him. Liechtenstein got the run on the fence behind them and got out at the top of the straight to challenge. The short favourite, Rocker, was basically one out one back. When Rocker presented its run in the straight, I thought it was about to go bang and win easily. It in fact then started to struggle, only working to a very narrow lead before being worried out of it by So So Sure. It was hard to miss the run of the old boy Mustard. He made up many lengths in the last bit of the race and dare I say another city win is on the cards for the 14-year-old?

Follow: Mustard (yes, even at 14, in a race with strong pace!!)

Specials from the meeting: Bello, Tropicana Girl, Kontiki Park, Wazn

Weekend racing reviews – Saturday December 10th is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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How to avoid a $30,000 mistake

David — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 22:12:52 +0000

Successful punting is about backing horses that are over their true odds and having a sound money management plan. To be a long-term winner you can’t have one without the other.

Back poor value horses, but have a great staking plan? You will lose.

Back good value horses but have a poor staking plan? Again you will lose.

Back good value horses and have a good staking plan? It’s the only way to win.

Yet the vast majority of punters put far more work into deciding which horses to back and very little thought into having a clear money management plan that they will stick with through both winning and losing runs.

We recommend (well make that demand!) that all our members have 100 units set aside as a betting bank, meaning that whatever they’re starting capital is should be divided by 100. So if they have $1,000 to bet with, they are betting $10 a unit. A $10,000 starting bank means $100 a unit and so on.

In most races we will risk 1.5% to 2.5% of our bank and we have found this to be the best balance between two competing beasts – risk and reward.

Bet less than this percentage and it’s too conservative – you’re costing yourself profits.

Bet more than this and it’s too aggressive – sooner or later a losing run can really test your betting bank and psyche.

Even very successful approaches will have significant losing runs and since I have demonstrated that fact just a couple of weeks ago in the gambling industry, today I’ll venture outside the punting world and switch over to the stock market.

Everyone knows Apple thanks to the iPad, iPhone and iEverythingelse. Well over the last 10 years Apple shares have gone up 70 fold and that kind of return sounds like a phenomenal ‘smooth-sailing’ run. However during Apple’s otherwise meteoric rise there have been 5 substantial corrections that would test the mettle of any investor. On different occasions their shares have dropped in value by 27%, 41%, 43%, 56% and 82%.

Only those with the conviction of the beliefs and a sound money management plan could stomach such challenging times.

Continuing the financial theme I was chatting with a commodities broker the other day and the strong similarities with punting were very interesting. They specialise in certain markets, only trade when they have done extensive research and analysis which convinces them that they are getting value and they never chase losses. Also they never risk more than 2% per trade. Don’t you think we as punters could learn a bit from people who manage millions for a living?

But back to horse racing now and I want to tell you about a thirty-thousand dollar mistake from last week. Because it’s one thing to encourage and emphasise the importance of a 100 unit betting bank to everyone, but some punters choose not to follow this advice.

A member of our UK tips service was betting a flat $125 stake on each of our selections (by the way level stakes is never our recommended approach, but that’s a story for another day). One night recently he found himself short of funds at Betfair since he had only funded his account with a small percentage of his 100 unit betting bank. So he did a transfer to Betfair who are normally the fastest to make the funds available. Unfortunately on this occasion the transfer wasn’t credited to his account immediately so he had to miss that night’s UK betting.

As it happened we had a winner at $246.60 that night, costing our underfunded member more than $30,000. No doubt he’ll never make such a mistake again, but it’s a very expensive way of learning the lesson that managing your money is just as crucial as backing winners.

How to avoid a $30,000 mistake is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Weekend racing reviews – Saturday December 3rd

darryn — Sun, 04 Dec 2011 22:51:50 +0000

Caulfield review compiled by Rick Williams

Race 2. 1400M Wafex Sovereign (Time 1:25.03/600m 35.48)

HER DIAMOND ROCK   PETER MERTENS       1st   $12
VAIN ATTRACTION          STEVEN KING             2nd    $15
LENORE                        CRAIG NEWITT            3rd   $3.40F

This was a nice win by My Diamond Rock. She was able to find herself in a nice on pace position and was able to hold off the runner up Vain Attraction who made good ground over the final 400m to lose narrowly. The fav Lenore just lost a couple of spots from the 600m to the 400m before working home really well and closing some good splits. Florets and Mabsam didn’t do too much but can be forgiven.

Worth noting: Follow Lenore, the run was excellent.

Race 3. 2000M Carpet Call (Time 2:02.78/600m 34.84)

ELUSIVE KING   DWAYNE DUNN   1st   $3.40
THE BIG STEEL    CRAIG NEWITT      2nd   $3F
RED BUTTONS   NICHOLAS HALL   3rd   $13

Elusive King had only won once before this one but he had been travelling pretty well and looked strong to the line winning here. He was nailed last start by the inform Sea Galleon at Moonee Valley and appreciated racing at his home track. Dunn settled him off the pace and he worked into the race strongly rounding the turn and was too good. The Big Steel boxed on well to finish second. He is going to take a lot from the run and is still early in his prep. Red Buttons who is good on his day but hasn’t been at his best recently showed glimpses of his old form and did well for third.

Worth noting: Elusive King can keep winning races like this and The Big Steel can take lots from this run and be winning also.

Race 4. 1800M Ros Ritchie Plate (Time 1:49.87/600m35.51)

SERENE TANIE               CHRIS SYMONS          1st    $16
OUR PRIDE AND JOY      CRAIG NEWITT            2nd   $1.90F
MAYNEDA STRATEGY   JORDAN MALLYON      3rd    $12

The well backed fav here was Our Pride And Joy. This mare had been racing in excellent form and when Maquina was scratched from the race it really enhanced her chances. She was given a good ride throughout but was unable to make the ground on the winner Serene Tanie. Serene Tanie is racing very well and she did an excellent job jumping in class to win again. She has a good cruising speed and if she gets through the middle stages without too much pressure she is hard to run down. Mayneda Strategy can run but she needs a lot to go right. I can see her building towards another win at this time of year, they just need to place her well.

Worth noting: Be careful of Our Pride And Joy if they send her around again as she has been up for a while now.

Race 5. 1200M East Malvern Community Bank (Time 1:10.36/600m 34.92)

INFINITE ENERGY   DANIEL STACKHOUSE   1st   $5
STRATIGRAPHY        CRAIG NEWITT   2nd   $3.10F
WIND IN HIS HAIR   LINDA MEECH   3rd   $5

Peter Moody produced the winner and third in what looked to be a difficult race on paper but the market had it correct. Infinite Energy was given a lovely ride by Stackhouse as he made his move late and along the inside. He looks to be a nice type and is worth keeping an eye on. Stratigraphy looked to have a lovely run like Our Pride And Joy but just didn’t win. He has ability and can run a split so don’t sack him yet. Wind In His Hair took up the running and I thought it was an excellent effort to fight on and hold third spot.

Worth noting: The first three look pretty even, follow them with confidence in similar grade.

Race 6. 1100M 65 Roses Victoria Cup (1:02.89/600m 34.24)

CANALI                  STEPHEN BASTER   1st   $8
CATAPULTED      MICHAEL RODD         2nd   $5EF
GENERAL TRUCE   CRAIG NEWITT           3rd   $5EF

It was an open race as most 1100m races at Caulfield are and it was the Darwin horse Canali who was able to lead all of the way. It’s important to forgive horses when they have genuine excuses and this guy went awful at Moonee Valley because he doesn’t like the wet. Back on a better surface he bounced straight back to his best and beat a pretty handy field. Catapulted did very well with a big weight here. He settled off them and his effort was very good. He is close. General Truce did what he does and that is run well. He doesn’t win much but he always runs well.

Worth noting: I would be pretty confident following the first two here in suitable races.

Race 7. 1200M Catanach’s Jewellers (Time 1:09.98/600m 34.88)

OUR SPIRITS BAY   JAKE NOONAN   1st   $12
INABLITZ                   CRAIG NEWITT   2nd   $5EF
MISS MATARI            LISA CROPP         3rd   $31

They had a mares race at Moonee Valley a few weeks back that ended in a big blanket finish across the track and this race finished very similarly. Avionics finished in about the same spot in both. Jake Noonan clocked up another winner with a nice ride here on Our Spirits Bay. There was plenty of mares close up who wanted to win but she was the one that stuck got the win. Inablitz continued a frustrating day for Newitt. She was hitting the line really well but things just didn’t fall into place when they needed to. Miss Matari who is good on her day but doesn’t have many of those days ran well into third.

Worth noting: Doesn’t seem to be much between any of these mares at the moment. Be very selective when betting on these types of races.

Race 8. 1400M Engagepeople Plate (Time 1:23.00/600m 35.63)

ALPHA PROXIMA   JAKE NOONAN   1st   $17
SHADOWFAX          MICHAEL RODD   2nd   $3.70F
SCAREDYMAC       DEAN YENDALL   3rd   $14

Another winner for Noonan here with Alpha Proxima doing the job. It was a pretty good win as he was second throughout on what looked to be a fair tempo set up by Cannonball who finished the race like he had been shot by a Cannonball, he duly ran last. Alpha Proxima had been around the mark recently and he was just too good for them. Shadowfax had a nice run but was just unable to pick up the winner in the straight as was Scardeymac. Snow Cover came from a long way back and was really the only horse in the race to do so.

Worth noting: Snow Cover is very close to a win.

Follow: Lenore, Elusive King, The Big Steel, Snow Cover

——————————————————————————————

Rosehill review

By guest reviewer Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st    Fundido        Nash Rawiller
2nd   Lyric       Hugh Bowman
3rd    Brave Soul    Chris Reith

Lyric led, Fundido sat outside and just behind it. As is often the case with the babies the superior racing manners told the story with these two being 1, 2 all the way. Fundido was the one that showed the slightly better acceleration in the straight to get away from Lyric. Hanorious worked to the line well and Santa Monica raced greenly and ended up on the outside fence before the home turn.

Follow: None to follow

Race 2

1st    Dynamic Honour    Hugh Bowman
2nd   Gaze In Awe    Sean Guymer
3rd    Sindarin        Chris Reith

Gaze In Awe led today after coming from well back last start. This showed the lack of pace in the race and Gaze In Awe actually over raced a bit as a result. The winner Dynamic Honour was a very good win coming from well back. Early in the straight it seemed to just be grinding but it got motoring the last 100m to pick up the leader suggesting that more ground will continue to suit. In Excess raced like a likely improver, keep an eye on it.

Follow: Dynamic Honour

Race 3

1st    Single        Nathan Berry
2nd   Rolling Pin    Sam Clipperton
3rd    Winning Glory    Jarrod Duffy

Rolling Pin led this race at what looked like an average pace. It kicked away around the turn as they often do here but if you watch the replay Single was always going to win. It was ridden an absolute treat back in the fence only a few lengths off the lead. When the run presented about 200m out it sprinted like a fairly good horse. There wasn’t a lot to say about the rest but the race is worth watching the replay of due to the big field and a number of them were caught wide. Tropicana Girl is an example of this and she ran well under the circumstances.

Follow: Rolling Pin

Race 4

1st    Recorrido        Chris Reith
2nd   Mighty Obvious    Tom Berry
3rd    Madibagold    Nathan Berry

Social Rank set what looked like a pretty good pace and did pretty well not to be beaten too far in the run home. In the run, Recorrido was always going to win. It got back but the pace suited it and when let down, it sprinted big time, which is something we have seen it do before. It’s a pretty good horse without being a top liner. I would expect it is the one to follow out of this race and do not be surprised if it strings together a number of wins on the trot over the Summer period. The second and third horses were credible runs without getting near the winner.

Follow: Recorrido

Race 5

1st    Rosie’s Reward    Adam Hyeronimous
2nd   Dystopia        Chad Schofield
3rd    Trilione        Sam Clipperton

Irish Love was slow out and you can forget it ran. Trillione led and ran a good race. The winner over the line Dystopia, sat off the pace and came with a good run, however hung in badly and lost the race on protest to Rosie’s Reward who sat behind the leader, had some trouble getting through but found the line very well. Should the protest have been upheld? I’m not completely convinced but the number is now in the frame and that’s history.

Follow: None to follow

Race 6

1st    Monton        Sam Clipperton
2nd   Lightinthenite    Josh Adams
3rd    Viva Lass    Matthew Cahill

Another big field and genuine pace. Viva Lass led Mentality. As is often the case though the horse getting the best run and conserving energy won. That was Monton. It was strong on the home turn to push out and sprint. That proved the winning move, even though it hung out a bit in the straight. Lightinthenight chased hard but could not pick up the winner. Again I would recommend a look at the replay as horses got caught wide again. One of these was Fibrillation that I liked the run of from the point of view of more ground later on. It can be a bit of a “gunna” but I am sure it has another win in store.

Follow: Fibrillation

Race 7

1st    Revolt        Jay Ford
2nd   Nextanix    Jeff Penza
3rd    Mikiyama   Chad Schofield

Revolt is a horse on the up enjoying the fact that the “good horses” are off having spells now. You get the feeling it still has something to learn about racing but the finishing sprint it comes with is very impressive. In a day of some nice ride this was one of the better ones, back along the fence and then pulling wide to get clear running and make a “good thing” of it. Mikiyama had a cushy run during the race and took the run well when it presented in the straight but was no match. Nextanix ran on as it does. The run of King Gladiator can be forgotten after a hard run the whole way – it actually ground away ok, as did Scouting Wide.

Follow: Revolt

Race 8

1st    My Destiny    Jay Ford
2nd   Irish Jig         Chad Schofield
3rd    Stratana        Adam Hyeronimous

Stratana led but you always had the feeling it had gone too fast. It did a good job to fight on as it did for third. My Destiny had the race set up for it with the pace on but credit to it for finishing off the way that it did. Irish Jig tried to come with it but couldn’t match the same sprint. Of the beaten brigade, World Wide worked home very well from the back. That was his first up run and he might take a couple now to be fully fit but keep an eye on him as the distances increase.

Follow: World Wide

Specials from the meeting: Recorrido, Revolt, Fibrillation, World Wide

Weekend racing reviews – Saturday December 3rd is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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Only pregnant ladies are ‘due’

David — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 22:24:04 +0000

We’re definitely due here mate’.

That saying, or words to the same effect, is used on racetracks and TAB’s every day of the year.

It normally comes from a punter who has backed a handful of losers in a row, which leads him to mistakenly believe that somehow this means that his next bet is more likely to win. Unfortunately there is no sound logical or mathematical reason behind such a statement, rather it’s more likely the hopes of a desperate punter.

In the short-term, being ‘due’ means nothing.

However over a larger sample size there is likely to be a ‘reversion to the mean’.

I’ll use a coin toss once again as a demonstration.

If you tossed 10 heads in a row, the chance of the next toss being another head is 50%. Nothing more nothing less, despite the fact tails backers would believe they are due.

However if you had 10,000 tosses and say 55% came up heads, you would reasonably expect that over the next 10,000 tosses there would be a reversion to the mean, because long term you will get 50% heads and 50% tails.

Relate that back to horse racing and although you might have backed 10 straight losers and believe that you’re ‘due’ since you normally have a strike-rate of about 30%, this concept doesn’t apply in the short term.

However if you’d won only 10% of your bets for the last 3 months, you could reasonably expect that your next 3 months would see a far better strike-rate (possibly exceeding 30%) as you trend back towards your long-term average.

Hope is not a strategy. And relying on the belief that you’re ‘due’ is not sensible for punters, only pregnant ladies.

Only pregnant ladies are ‘due’ is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips

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It’s not profit until it’s in your pocket

David — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 03:16:09 +0000

Many punters under-estimate the value of money they have ‘won’ on the punt and end up giving it all right back.

An urban myth illustrates this perfectly…

A couple are honeymooning in Las Vegas and decide to set aside $500 to gamble in the casino. They spend a great day at the tables but end up losing their $500 so they head back to their hotel suite.

Late at night the groom can’t sleep and while tossing and turning he spots a $5 chip on their hotel room floor. His wife is fast asleep so he decides to try his luck one more time and head back down to the casino for one last bet. He wanders past the roulette wheel and decides to bet his last $5 on the date of his wife’s birthday. To his surprise he wins! Then he tries his birthday and wins again! So he bets his mum’s birthday and wins yet again! He bets on…. I think you get the picture.

He has the most unbelievable run of luck and ends up sitting there with $500,000 in chips and a large crowd watching every bet.

Giving in to the adrenalin surge and the pressure of the crowd’s urgings he agrees to one more bet.

He places $500,000 on black. “One more bet to win a cool million and I’ll never have to work again,” he thinks.

BUT HE LOSES

The crowd goes away even quicker than they had gathered and he trudges back up to his room in silence. Early the next morning he told his wife that he had gone back down to the tables after finding a chip under the chair. She is still half asleep but asks how he got on.

“Not too bad,” he says, “I lost $5″.

You see, most punters are very liberal with the cold hard truth of their betting success. Telling the wife you ‘broke even’ invariably means you actually finished the day behind.

There is also a trait known as ‘mental accounting’ which means that we have a tendency to treat money differently depending on where it has come from. The problem is that often when we win money we are more likely to account for it differently than money we have ‘earned’ by more traditional means. Most people are far more willing to risk (and waste) money we have won because we don’t see it as the same as money we earn.

For instance we are far more reckless with a big quaddie win than we are with the money Nanna left us. Or to relate it back to the urban myth above, if the man had started the day with his own $500,000 it is highly unlikely he would have risked so much on just one bet.

However the most successful punters are able to treat money the same no matter where it came from. Punting is their business so they look upon money ‘won’ exactly the same as money ‘earned’. They don’t get blasé when they have just had a big winner. They don’t risk any more with their betting profits than they would do with any other income…it is still their money. If you can develop this betting mindset, then you are well on your way to becoming a successful bettor.

So you really should put some time into thinking about how you are going to treat your winnings and what you plan to do with them. That should help you value that money just as much as you do any other cash you have.

It’s not profit until it’s in your pocket is a post from: Championpicks - Horse Racing Tips