Bias recipes
Shorter prices can mean greater value - Part 2
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Last week we discussed the favourite/longshot bias which shows that the rate of return decreases as price increases. That is, punters tend to under-rate the winning chances of favourites and over-rate the winning chances of longer priced horses.
To demonstrate this is more than just a theory, today we’ll take a look at the profitability of backing leading jockey’s, trainers and sires.
Shorter prices can mean greater value
Which do you think offers greater long-term value? Betting shorter-priced horses or longshots?
Many punters would be surprised to learn that they will do better by backing shorter-priced horses rather than those that are at bigger odds. This is because it has been proven over many years, both in Australia and overseas, that there is a favourite/longshot bias.