The Sunday spotlight will be on Flemington and it’s hard not to get really excited about the Melbourne Cup Carnival Preview Day featuring the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and $1.8 million in prizemoney.
From a punting perspective however it’s worth keeping in mind that Flemington can be a real graveyard for favourite backers.
Let’s take a look at the stats there (at level stakes) over the last 12 months:
Favourites have a 25% strike-rate and have lost 15% on turnover
2nd favourites have just a 15% strike-rate and have lost 24% on turnover
These really are terrible figures and they don’t get any better if you were betting proportionately, with favourites losing 20% on turnover and second favourites 18%.
To demonstrate just how bad those results are, the first two favourites across all tracks in Australia over the last 12 months lost just 6% on turnover. The fact is that fancied runners at Flemington have performed three times worse than the rest of Australia. That is quite a significant difference and one you should keep in mind before outlaying your hard earned on Turnbull Stakes Day.
