History repeats in Hong Kong Group I double

Hong Kong is one of the world’s great financial centres and a rare fusion of western and eastern influences.  Yesterday it played host to a spectacular race meeting with the running of the G1 Champions Mile and G1 QEII Cup.

John Moore holds the record for most career victories by a trainer in Hong Kong and his charges took out the big international double yesterday. Able One was piloted to victory by Darren Beadman in the Champions Mile (repeating his 2007 win) and incredibly Viva Pataca’s QEII Cup win also added to his 2007 success in the same race. Click Here To Read More

Dao Dao flies the flag on Anzac weekend

Dao Dao represents Australia this weekend on one of the biggest racedays of the Hong Kong season, with seasoned stars from six countries taking part in the two Group 1 races.

HK$26 million is up for grabs across the 10 race card with the two highlights being the Champions Mile and the QE II Cup.

I am lucky enough to be in Hong Kong to take in all the action and look forward to Sunday at Sha Tin with great anticipation.

The G1 Champions Mile is the third leg of the Asian Mile Challenge and Dao Dao flies the flag for Australia.

The six year-old gelding has been placed at his last two starts in the G1 Futurity Stakes at Caulfield and G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill. Dao Dao ran a close-up 3^rd in this race last year and his career record stands at 7 wins (four at Sha Tin) and 8 placings from 18 starts for earnings of AUD$1.1m. Click Here To Read More

Progressive staking plans

Fact or fiction: A progressive staking plan can turn a small level stakes loss into a healthy profit.

The term “progressive” sounds fairly professional. But if they were called by the more appropriate term of “aggressive loss chasing plans” then they wouldn’t sound quite so tempting.

Progressive staking plans involve increasing your bet size following a loser or series of losers. This approach may seem OK on paper and may work in the short term, but at some stage you are absolutely certain to wipe out your betting bank. Most punters already bet too much of their bank on each bet and this problem is simply exacerbated by progressive betting.

Remember the old probability question – if you have tossed 20 straight heads what is the chance of the next toss also being a head? It’s 50% of course, no more and no less, so increasing your bets following a losing streak doesn’t make any mathematical sense. Previous unrelated results (good or bad) have no material effect on the next result, yet you are increasing your bet size and risk. Betting against established mathematics and probability is a recipe for financial ruin Click Here To Read More

Doing the form: dont believe everything you hear

Many punters don’t have the time to do the form properly so they rely far too heavily on radio and TV spruikers.

But these people are journalists rather than expert form analysts and serious punters don’t guess, rely on hunches or place any emphasis whatsoever in the opinions of media personaliti es.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but when commentators express their opinion as fact it’s not doing the punters any favours. Click Here To Read More

Betting on maidens

A punter I was speaking to this week said that he avoided backing horses that won their maiden last start as only 13% went on to win at their next start. I was impressed that he knew this statistic, but unfortunately he didnt know what the profit (or loss) on turnover was for this group of horses. This was a crucial missing ingredient because a strike-rate percentage by itself is almost worthless.

And a strike-rate of 13% is OK if the average winning dividend is $10. On the other hand it’s catastrophic if the average dividend is $5. Click Here To Read More