Randwick Review – April 16th 2016

by Champion Picks on April 18, 2016

Race 1 – TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200M)

1st UNKNOWN DESTINY – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd NIGHTS ON FIRE – Kayla Nisbet (a2/51.5kg)
3rd STRANGERINPARADISE – Hugh Bowman

Accessory Diva, Touch Sensitive and Chappie from out wide were the best out of the gates, whilst Nights On Fire was also right there in the early going. Circle Game and Dylan’s Destiny settled next from Unknown Destiny caught deep from Strangerinparadise, then Dashie De Luxe, Onemoregypsy, La Bella Rouge, Tiger By The Tail and Murranji last of all. Unknown Destiny moved almost immediately, moving up outside to improve into the side of the course whilst Onenmoregypsy trod a similar path even wider.

Touch Sensitive and Accessory Diva led them into the straight hard against the rails, the latter stopping dead to fall out of contention immediately. Nights On Fire loomed up to join Touch Sensitive, as did Unknown Destiny, whilst Murranji was coming hard from further back. It was Unknown Destiny the strongest in the final furlong, whilst Dashie De Luxe came from last in the straight to finish well.

Watch: Dashie De Luxe

Race 2 – E-GROUP SECURITY SPRINT (1200m)

1st AMMIRATA – Sam Clipperton
2nd ALART – Dwayne Dunn
3rd SANTA ANA LANE – Hugh Bowman

Ryker and Mohave settled up front with Klammer also pushing through on the rails, whilst Alart and Santa Ana Lane also pushed forward, the latter caught very deep. Moving up midfield on the fence was Ammirata with Press Report also right there, then Lady Zhivago outside, and a slight gap back to Queen Of Kariba, Lucky Can Be and Rock Forthe Ladies across the track at the rear.

They emerged from the side of the course in a very neat line, horses fanned right out across the track in a race to the line. Klammer surrendered the rail in the straight, allowing Alart to shoot through, but it was from wider that the challengers came. Santa Ana Lane and Ryker was competitive briefly but it was Ammirata finishing the best, getting in front and holding them off. Decent finishes from the other side of the track from Press Report and Rock For the Ladies.

Watch: none.

Race 3 – TJS FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000m)

1st HES OUR ROKKII – Dwayne Dunn
2nd OLD NORTH – James McDonald
3rd TORGERSEN – Hugh Bowman

It was Zasorceress and Gold Ambition pushing hard forward from very wide to settled at the head of the field from Hierarchal on the fence and the hot favourite Old North one out and one back. Next came Torgersen and He’s Our Rokkii, followed by Tatoosh, Aurora’s Star, Asinara and Manhattan Son last of all.

McEvoy on Zasorceress took them along at a pretty comfortable pace as he and Angland on Gold Ambition opened up a couple of lengths on the field. It picked up at the 600m, Hierarchal being hard ridden along the fence whilst McDonald sat motionless on Old North into the straight. He’s Our Rokkii and Tatoosh went out widest into the straight. Old North cruised up to the front and looked extremely comfortable until He’s Our Rokkii appeared outside and really laid down the challenge – ultimately being simply too good for the heavily favoured Old North. Asinara ran on fairly well.

Watch: He’s Our Rokkii

Race 4 – KARI J H B CARR STAKES (1400m)

1st YATTARNA – Glyn Schofield
2nd NO MORE TEARS – Hugh Bowman
3rd LADY SNIPER – Blake Shinn

Yattarna flew the start and shot straight to the front with Lady Sniper alongside and just back, whilst Tremezzina and Brigadoon rise were next on the inside. Heartlings went around them looking very keen to settle third and very wide. No More Tears was next with Dawnie Perfect off the track, Tap This between them, Cartier Rock, then the favourite Pearls well back with Denmagic the fence, Denpurr outside and Muzyka bring up the rear.

Orderly run around the side of the course, the favourite Pearls however looking very poorly placed well back and trapped inside a mob of runners. Yattarna cornered in front and handed Tremezzina the rails run, whilst Lady Sniper kept on the pressure and Brigadoon Rise attempted to punch through. Pearls had finally got out at the 200m but it was far too late, though she did run on well when she finally got clear air and can be somewhat forgiven. Yattarna managed to hold them all off to salute.

Watch: Pearls.

Race 5 – MOET & CHANDON CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600m)

1st PRIZED ICON – Glyn Schofield
2nd CHIMBORAA – Hugh Bowman
3rd DIVINE PROPHET – Dwayne Dunn

The Kiwi El Sicario was the story of the start, shooting away like a bullet to be out by 6 lengths by the 100m as McEvoy tried in vain to settle her down. Back with the pack and it was the favourite Prized Icon at the front at a comfortable pace from North Sky and Crown Him, then Pop, Faraway Town and Obscura on the fence, then Chimboraa, Divine Prophet and Jaws Of Steel last.

The leader’s alone time was short lived as he was back with the pack by the 600m, as which point Chimborra was moving around the outside to improve position. El Sicario just held the lead into the straight before Prized Icon and Faraway Town came to him and cruised past. Chimboraa down the outside was finishing hard, as was Divine Prophet, whilst Pop had found the rail on the inside. None could get past Prized Icon, too strong and a justified favourite.

Watch: none.

Race 6 – HALL MARK STAKES (1200m)

1st MUSIC MAGNATE – Brenton Avdulla
2nd KNOYDART – Tim Clark
3rd FAST ‘N’ ROCKING – Dwayne Dunn

Battle for the lead from the gates with Speak Fondly getting up the inside to claim it with Music Magnate marginally second on her outside, at gap to Knoydart and Bachman, another gap to Artlee and Target In Sight, then Federal, Fast ‘n’ Rocking, Charlie and Zin Zan Eddie at the rear.

Speak Fondly and Music Magnate were stride for stride into the straight, stepping in slightly which forced Knoydart behind to take a step out for a run. The pair of them left Speak Fondly behind as Target In Sight and Federal dived late down the outside, and Fast ‘n’ Rocking found his way up the inside to do likewise. A brilliant five-way finish Knoydart and Music Magnate bobbing on the line. The judges gave it to the latter in the closest of close-run things.

Watch: Federal.

Race 7 – SCHWEPPES ALL AGED STAKES (1400m)

1st ENGLISH – Sam Clipperton
2nd BLACK HEART BART – Kerrin McEvoy
3rd KERMADEC – James McDonald

Goldstream was hard out of the gates with nose in the air, but plenty went forward with Malaguerra leading early on the rail from Perignon, Black Heart Bart behind them with Rebel Dane on the fence and Press Statement caught wide, whilst English and Kermadec were content to sit back and watch it unfold.

Very little speed as the whole field bunched up into the side of the course, Perignon notionally taking the lead back with Goldstream just on her flank. McDonald pulled Kermadec out at the 600m and started to move up, going widest just outside English, who was also improving considerably. It was the pair of them and Press Statement looking good things down the straight, and English showed a lot of class to see Kermadec off. Press Statement fell away in the face of a great finish by Black Heart Bart.

Watch: English, Black Heart Bart.

Race 8 – SHARP JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION PLATE (2000m)

1st GUARDINI – Hugh Bowman
2nd INDEX LINKED – Glyn Schofield
3rd HAVANA COOLER – James McDonald

Bit of a fight for the lead early with Messene eventually taking it, Hippopus coming across and content to sit in second, Caisno Dancer third the rail and Weary outside him. Sadler’s Lake was behind them with Rudy camped on his inside, the favourite Havana Cooler tucked in behind with cover and Guardini caught three wide. Index Linked was next back on the fence with Beyond Thankful and Terrubi outside, then Moriarty and Hawkspur last of all.

Not speed on down the side and it was Sadler’s Lake and Guardini going out widest for a run at the final turn. Messene held the lead in the face of a wall of horses, Index Linked looking likely as he was shoved up the inside on the rails. It was about the 300m when Bowman made his move on Guardini, the Frenchman responding magnificently to romp away with it. Hitting the line hard behind were Havana Cooler and Beyond Thankful.

Race 9 – TAB REWARDS ROYAL RANDWICK 100 (1400m)

1st MIGHTY LUCKY – Chris O’Brien
2nd RELIGIFY – Glyn Schofield
3rd STRAWBERRY BOY – Taylor Marshall (a2/48kg)

Decision Time got the best of the start to take up the lead, Strawberry Boy going with him on his outside and Religify pushing through the inside to join them. The favourite Nancy got in fourth spot and looked a bit keen heading into the side of the course, Clipperton collaring her as Great Esteem settled on the fence and Medcaut on her outside. Next back was Less Is More followed by Malice getting a rails run, Mighty Lucky, Tales Of Grimm caught wide, Pajaro, Dances On Stars and Shareham at the back.

Decision Time led them round at a fairly pedestrian pace, Medcaut and Less Is More from midfield getting out wide as they turned. The leader held them into the straight but was soon swamped by almost the entire field, Strawberry Boy, Religify and Nancy putting the pressure on down the middle. They looked good until Mighty Lucky, looming up from dead centre in the pack, found an extra couple of metres and bolted on the line to claim a great win. Nancy also finished reasonably whilst Pajaro and Shoreham caught the eye at the line.

Watch: Mighty Lucky.

Horses to follow: Dashie De Luxe, He’s Our Rokkii, Federal, English, Black Heart Bart.

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Caulfield Review – April 16th 2016

by Champion Picks on April 18, 2016

Race 1 – TIXSTAR.COM.AU MARATHON SERIES FINAL (4000m)

1st SLY ROMANCE – Nicholas Hall
2nd DANE HUSSLER – Damian Lane
3rd CUBAN FIGHTER – Brandon Stockdale

Marathon from the 4000 metres to start the day, the field finding their order quite quickly with Jileks Spur taking it up initially from Sly Romance, Dane Hussler and Sommernachtstraum, then Prospector, Jacks ‘n’ Kings on the outside of Celtic Pride, and a gap back to Deliberate and Cuban Fighter. First to move was Jacks ‘n’ Kings down the side of the course for the first time, Baster wanting a bit more pep as he took his mount around the outside to take up the lead from Jileks Spur. Baster let him go a little to stretch out by a couple of lengths down the straight, the rest of the field happy to bob along patiently.

The new leader was reeled in relatively quickly, with a circuit completed the field started to move at the 1400m – Jileks Spur sliding up to the leader before Lane took Dane Hussler out and around with some urgency to take up the running. Lane let his mount go whilst Sadler on Jileks Spur kept very close as things went up a few notches. Proctector and Cuban Prince slid around the outside of a tightly bunched field to move up, Stockdale notably really pushing Cuban Prince along to move up to third. Lane was right into Dane Hussler and going for home as they hit the straight, getting a couple of lengths on Sly Romance who nonetheless was not going away. The pair broke away and it was Sly Romance who broke his rival to run on for a tough win.

Watch: none.

Race 2 – VALE PHIL SLY VOBIS GOLD INGOT (1200m)

1st VALLIANO – Damian Lane
2nd DISSOLUTE – Craig Williams
3rd IF YOU WILL – Brad Rawiller

Fast start at the 1200m with Valliano and Carlingford shooting straight to the lead, whilst Baster drove Green Light through hard on the inside to join them, with Zero Patience and If You Will not far behind. Settlign next was Palma Merenti from Love In Vain, then Urban Ruler and the favourite Dissolute caught a little wide.

Valliano turned comfortably in front with Green Light, Carlingford and If You Will in a line behind, whilst peeling wider from further back were Urban Ruler, having pushed through the field, Palma Merenti and Dissolute out deepest. If You Will cracked on but it was Dissolute showing the most speed in the straight, hammering down the last furlong but ultimately a touch late for the party as Valliano bravely held on by half a length. Summer Glen also hit the line well.

Watch: Dissolute, Summer Glen.

Race 3 – VOBIS GOLD DISTAFF (1400m)

1st SCARLETT BILLOWS – Dean Yendall
2nd FRENCH EMOTION – Brad Rawiller
3rd WHISTLE BABY – Chris Symons

Even start and pretty good go for the lead, Written finding it after a bit of a battle with Scarlett Billows on the inside and Marli Magic from wider. Afleet Esprit settled next right on the speed and one out, French Emotion and Andrioli were next, with Antelucan, Whistle Baby and Mossbeat bringing up the rear.

Berimen let Written go down the side and opened up three lengths on the field, avoiding the inside running around the bend to corner one off the rail and well in front. Plenty of room for challengers into the straight with the leader going even wider, Scarlett Billows taking up the invitation to go up the inside. She went straight past a tiring Written who was also taken by French Emotion and a fast finishing Whistle Baby on her outside.

Watch: Whistle Baby.

Race 4 – VOBIS GOLD MILE (1600m)

1st RED BOMBER – Damian Lane
2nd ZEBRINZ – Ben Melham
3rd ENTRE NOUS – Luke Nolen

A few up for the lead from closer in but it was Ashdam and Arctic Song from wide going forward across to take it up, with Hard Call and Sabkhat right there and Red Bomber wanting a piece of it, but caught three wide as they approached the side of the course. Recalculate trailed him somewhat and was outside Entre Nous on the fence, then a gap to Zebrinz with Hokkaido on his outside, then Iron Spider and Lordfontein settled at the back.

Lane kept pushing Red Bomber around the side and was caught three-wide for most of the trip, whilst the main mover at about the 600m was Recalculate, Hall bringing him wide into the turn along with Hokkaido, also off the track, and Zebrinz getting a tow in. Meanwhile inside, Ashdam has had enough and let Hard Call up his inside, Arctic Song offering a little more resistance before being tackled by Red Bomber who looked the goods despite the less than perfect trip. Recalculate and Entre Nous kept coming behind him and Zebrinz flashed nicely.

Watch: Red Bomber, Zebrinz.

Race 5 – IRT VOBIS GOLD REEF (1600m)

1st BENGAL CAT – Thomas Sadler (a)
2nd UNBREAKABLE – Ben Melham
3rd TARQUIN – Craig Williams

The runners from wider again shot to the front, Bengal Cat and Woogie coming across to claim the lead early. Rawiller also pushed Approved Anger forward, caught three wide, with Devilishly next from Unbreakable and Tarquin. There was then a slight gap to El Greco and Royal Rumble, who had Turfonic outside, and Lazoomba, Palace Tycoon and Lake Jackson at the rear.

The field bunched into the side of the track with Lazumba taken outside to improve a little, whilst Bengal Cat absorbed any pressure to hold the rail and the lead around the corner, where Sadler let go and went for home. That was all she wrote, with Tarquin and El Greco running on and hitting the line well.

Watch: Bengal Cat, Tarquin, El Greco.

Race 6 – OWNER.RACING.COM VOBIS GOLD SPRINT (1200m)

1st MISS PROMISCUITY – Craig Williams
2nd JALAN JALAN – Luke Currie
3rd THE QUARTERBACK – Matthew Allan

Kirani was fastest out from wider to take up the lead from Miss Promiscuity, whislt Currie pushed Jalan Jalan forward and was caught deep. Almighty Girl was next with Thermal Current camped on the fence, followed by Iconic and Tycoon Tara caught outside. Favourite The Quarterback was well back as expected and on the rail, with So Does He outside him, with Refulgent and Del Prado last of all.

Jalan Jalan pushed all the way to the lead into the side of the course, but as they turned Kirani still had the inside running and looked to take it up. Miss Promiscuity laid the challenge right down to Jalan Jalan, Almighty Girl outside them came hard as well, whilst The Quarterback finally found a run out of the mess – but ultimately too late. It was Miss Promiscuity who finished best to take it out, in front of a group of fast finishers, including The Quarterback, Thermal Current and Almighty Girl.

Watch: The Quarterback, Almighty Girl.

Race 7 – VOBIS GOLD HEATH (2000m)

1st ADIRONDACK – Ben Melham
2nd FIREHOUSE ROCK – Brad Rawiller
3rd VIANDEN – Harry Coffey (a)

Field settled fairly quickly with Ultimate Doom wanting the front most, Gauci briefly sitting behind the leading bunch before taking him out and around to lead at first opportunity. Adirondack settled in comfortably in second from Firehouse Rock and Honey Steel’s Gold. Rong Door Reggie was next from London Fog and Racing Writer in midfield, then the favourite Bondeiger comfortable with Vianden and Word Of Mouth around him, Wintonia, The Terricks and Spur On Gold last.

Ultimate Doom strung them out down the side with Gauci keeping the foot down to keep up a decent gallop. The leading pack stuck with and they opened up a dent gap before the field bunched again at about the 600m and fanned out into the last corner. Adirondack took on the leader and headed him, Firehouse Rock following from three wide, the pair leaving him and much of the field behind from there. Rawiller got into Firehouse Rock but Melham did the same and Adirondack responded magnificently, shooting away in an almost effortless fashion to slay the field by five lengths. Further back Vianden and Word Of Mouth finished off well.

Watch: Adirondack.

Race 8 – TROA ANNIVERSARY VASE (1400m)

1st PRECIOUS GEM – Jake Noonan
2nd SISTEEN DEMON – Luke Currie
3rd ENQUARE – Damian Lane

Sisteen Demon was fastest out from Dan Zephyr and Onpicalo, followed by Fast Cash, Master Reset and Jimando as the field strung out quite quickly. Next was Lord Durante in midfield from Yesterday’s Songs, Rhythm to Spare and Enquare caught wide, then Volontiers, Lucky Lago, Precious Gem well back and also deep, and bringing up the rear was Inspector and Staviva, having missed the start by around a length.

They travelled at a good clip with Currie the leader moving, with the first three breaking away from the field by a couple of lengths. Around the turn and Gauci went wide well back on Lord Durante, with Precious Gem even wider to find a run, whilst Hall was right into Jimando from the top of the straight. Sisteen Demon opened up a couple of lengths before rolling back toward the inside and losing momentum slightly, Dan Zephyr best placed on his flank to take the opportunity. He didn’t have the legs though and it was Precious Gem bolting down the middle to claim them all with a super run. Jimando was hard ridden and finished well, as did Enquare.

Watch: Precious Gem, Enquare.

Race 9 – RACING VICTORIA OFF THE TRACK PLATE (1100m)

1st PRECIOUANDRASSY – Matthew Allen
2nd BON ROCKET – Brandon Stockdale (a3)
3rd RUETTIGER – Ben Melham

General Jackson was away well from wide, as was Toothless, whilst Sunday Escape and Concrete Johnny shot up the inside to join them. Andrassy settled next a couple of lengths back from Bon Rocket and Shades Of Bella, Niminypiminy and Ruettiger. Don’t Get Excited was caught Deep outside I’m A Flying Star, with a gap to Corum, Tansy, Mio Dio and Danger Close last on the rail.

The field kept tight as cornered in a mob, Toothless the first to emerge in the centre of the track as the challengers came from all angles in the straight. Just outside him however was Andrassy, finishing the best of all the run away with Bon Rocket, the former just claiming it in a great finish by both runners. Reuttiger and I’m A Flying Star also finished well.

Watch: Andrassy, Bon Rocket.

Horse To Follow: Dissolute, Whistle Baby, Red Bomber, Bengal Cat, Miss Promiscuity, Adirondack, Precious Gem, Bon Rocket.

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Sandown Review

by Champion Picks on April 11, 2016

SANDOWN REVIEW – APRIL 9TH 2016 SATURDAY

Race 1: Ladbrokes Australia Handicap (1300m)

1st Pyx Chamber – James Winks
2nd October Tutu – Glen Boss
3rd Smart As You Think – Brad Rawiller

River Goddess landed in front of Launched quickly to her outside and October Tutu rushed up three deep to head them. Pyx Chamber watched all that happen around North SkyOne Over Rod was stuck three wide and started to creep forward in the middle stages. They bunched up coming to the turn and eased off the inside with October Tutu travelling a bit better than Launched. Pyx Chamber was into the clear in plenty of time while One Over Rod was under some pressure. North Sky and River Goddess were back towards the inside. October Tutu still led at the 200m but Pyx Chamber had him covered. River Goddess was battling on over near the fence and North Sky couldn’t go with them. Running on from the back was Smart As You Think. But Pyx Chamber held them easily and in a big improvement on his last couple scored well. October Tutu had every chance while Smart As You Think grabbed River Goddess on the line for third.

Follow: might not be a strong race but like to see Smart As You Think again.

Race 2: Ladbrokes.com.au Handicap (1500m)

1st Lahqa – Dylan Dunn
2nd Dane Thunder – Jake Bayliss
3rd Assertive Star – Ben Melham

Pearl Star jumped slowly but gathered speed to be with the leaders on the inside. Dane Thunder and Miss Cooper were outside her with Eagles Dare andTotal Discretion easing out of the bunch. Lahqa had a nice spot next from Kerauno and Assertive Star trailed. Eagles Dare was sooled along to try to head off Pearl Star coming to the 800m and Miss Cooper was between them. Total Discretion followed Eagles Dare as they bunched coming to the turn and Dane Thunder stayed on the fence saving ground. Dane Thunder hit the front at the 400m with Pearl Star called upon and Eagles Dare weakening. Miss Cooper and Total Discretion were going nowhere and Lahqa was looking for runs through. Dane Thunder went for home at the 200m as Pearl Star dropped off. Kerauno was there on the inside and Lahqa started to wind up with Assertive Star further out. Dane Thunder was all out in the closing stages and Lahqa picked him up and edged away. Assertive Star kept coming further out for third and they were well clear of the rest.

Follow: none.

Race 3: Ladbrokes Bet Better (1300m)

1st She’s Miss Devine – Ben Melham
2nd French Emotion – Brad Rawiller
3rd Enquare – Ben Thompson

Telopea was best out but didn’t want the lead and Enquare took it up from She’s Miss Devine also letting her go. Boundary sat behind them and Kansas Sunflower was in that bunch. French Emotion was trapped wide in midfield and Inishowen sat three back on the fence. Enquare broke a couple clear coming to the turn with She’s Miss Devine stalking. Telopea eased out and French Emotion went with her while Boundary was looking for runs and Inishowen went back to the inside as they left the fence. At the 300m Enquare was under heavy pressure with Inishowen on her inside and She’s Miss Devine and Telopea chiming in, French Emotion may have been a touch outsprinted but was winding up and the others were too far out of it. She’s Miss Devine was able to gain the upper hand of the leading group and it was left to French Emotion to try to pull back the margin but she was unable to reel her stablemate in. Enquare kicked back for third ahead of a disappointing Telopea and Inishowen close up in the slower part of the track.

Follow: none in particular but stick with Enquare, she’s close to a win.

Race 4: Ladbrokes Mega Margin (1300m)

1st Rageese – Brad Rawiller
2nd Demonstrate – Ben Melham
3rd Catch A Fire – Dylan Dunn

They were staying off the fence from the start with Cana leading Catch A Fire and Ragazzo Del Corsa in a line. Brockhoff had a nice trail behind them andRageese strode forward to be with him ahead of Demonstrate and Les Darci. Catch A Fire ran to the lead midrace as Cana eased for cover and Ragazzo Del Corsa put a bit of pressure on. Brockhoff was in the clear in plenty of time and Rageese was tracking up on his outside. Demonstrate became bailed up between horses in the run to the turn and he was forced to pull back and get across Rageese’s heels. Catch A Fire gave a kick early in the straight but Rageese sprinted quickly about 300m out to hit the lead. Demonstrate had a couple of lengths to make up after getting to the outside. Rageese had stolen a break and held Demonstrate to just over a length. The got right away from Catch A Fire who clung onto third from Cana. Every chance Brockhoff, he was quite disappointing and must have gone off the boil. First run for new stable for Rageese and  he was back to his best.

Follow: Demonstrate was a bit costly here but he has a win in him.

Race 5: Ladbrokes Live Play (1800m)

1st Zahspeed – Glen Boss
2nd Tears Of Joy – Patrick Moloney
3rd Doctor Care – Ben Thompson

Zahspeed beat them out easily and stayed a few off the fence while Leveraction and Temps Voleur improved inside him. Tears Of Joy was handy wider out with Straight Jacket and Commanding Time just behind them. Doctor Care had a nice spot early from Lunayir while midfield were GabellaSee What I Bring and Better Land. Leveraction worked through on the fence to lead from Zahspeed who was happy to let him go while Temps Voleur and Tears Of Joy enjoyed good trails. Not a lot of change to the turn and the field again left the fence. Leveraction was under siege from Temps Voleur and Gabella, who cut the corner, at the 400m while Zahspeed was being wound up in the middle of the track. Doctor Care had plenty of room between them and Tears Of Joy was further out running on. Zahspeed had the inside group covered at the 200m and burst right away. Tears Of Joy and Doctor Care chased hard while Leveraction and Gabella were battling on the inside. Wide out the eye catcher was The Bandit charging home to just miss a place ahead of Lunayir, a fair run. Zahspeed is racing in career best form and always looked in control.

Follow: The Bandit wants 2000m and beyond but will be winning again soon.

Race 6: Galilee Series Final (2400m)

1st Charlevoix – Luke Nolen
2nd Cool Chap – Ben Melham
3rd Meru – Katelyn Mallyon

Skulduggery went forward this time and led early from Sarimanok and Meru on the fence. Pay Up Bro was caught wide and continued on, as did Bullish Stock who was quickly up into second before taking over early in the back straight. Pay Up Bro moved to second then while further back Cool Chap enjoyed a good run better than midfield around Cracklin’ RosieSee Line Woman followed them while Charlevoix was taken back near the tail. A move came midrace from See Line Woman and she rushed up to join Bullish Stock in front. Pay Up Bro then found some cover while Meru and Sarimanok were next and Skulduggery was shuffled back. Another move came from Tuff Bickie who went up three wide to join the leader at the 800m. Skulduggery tried to get going too and that gave Cool Chap a trail home and Charlevoix was a couple of lengths behind him. The leaders were gone at the 300m and Cool Chap and Charlevoix charged past. Pay Up Bro and Meru were battling on nearer the inside from Bullish Stock. Charlevoix extended past the 100m and speared right away from Cool Chap and he simply outstayed them. Meru did a good job to run third at big odds and there were some tired horses behind the placings.

Follow: Charlevoix could be an SA Derby horse.

Race 7: Ladbrokes Infohub Handicap (1000m)

1st Bullpit – Glen Boss
2nd Beau Rada – Brad Rawiller
3rd Hard Romp – Michael Dee

Sheidel blew the start while Fab Fevola bounded out from the inside. Bullpit showed his usual speed and Hard Romp was further out. General Jackson andAfrican Pulse settled next with Miss Seton Sands midfield and Sheidel recovering. Fab Fevola was staying hard up against the fence as he sped along in front while Bullpit led the rest of the field about six away from the rail, going wider on the turn with Hard Romp on his outside. General Jackson was underneath them and they had a break on the rest of the field headed by Sheidel wide out and Beau Rada cutting back inside a few horses. Fab Fevola stopped very quickly and was swallowed up by General Jackson on his inside before Bullpit sprinted past them. Beau Rada was really charging late with Hard Romp battling on and Sheidel further out. Bullpit had a big enough break to just hold off Beau Rada and score in a very strange race. Hard Romp held on for third in a fair first-up run while Sheidel finished just behind them and Zupacharged made some late ground without threatening. Miss Seton Sands disappointed.

Follow: Sheidel should have won, look for her to atone.

Race 8: Ladbrokes Cash In Handicap (1600m)

1st Bengal Cat – Tom Sadler
2nd Silent Sedition – Dylan Dunn
3rd She’s Got Speed – Ryan Maloney

A couple of them wanted the lead and Miss Wilson eventually took it up from Bengal Cat on the inside. She’s Got Speed was right there with them and in the group just behind were Silent SeditionBannatyne and Let Her Rip, with Eolande and Lopartega while Jacqui’s Joy eased back a length or so out of the bunch. Miss Wilson opened up a break on Bengal Cat down the side with Eolande on the inside of Silent Sedition and She’s Got Speed. Bannatyne stuck to the fence while Jacqui’s Joy was under pressure a fair way out. Miss Wilson was in trouble at the 400m and Bengal Cat, who worked herself to the outside, picked her up. Silent Sedition tried to go with her between them. Pure Pride had worked through to be battling for a place with Eolande and She’s Got Speed. Silent Sedition put up a bit of a fight before Bengal Cat kicked right in and surged away for an easy win and a big form reversal. Silent Sedition held on for second from She’s Got Speed who just edged Eolande out and Pure Pride was close up. They got away from the rest.

Follow: Pure Pride was coming off a maiden win and ran well out of her class.

Race 9: Ladbrokes Odds Boost (1600m)

1st Nevis – Katelyn Mallyon
2nd Hijack Hussy – Dean Yendall
3rd Atlantis Dream – Luke Nolen

Nevis was first to break the line and he ran clear from Black TomahawkGuest Of Honour and Survived in a line. Kenjorwood was held back this time settling off the pace from Genuine Lad and Hijack HussyTristram’s Sun was wide out with Kourkam,  Hollywood Bound and Zabisco were in that bunch and Atlantis Dream. Nevis wasn’t tested out in front and did his own thing, stretching the field out a little midrace. Survived went past Black Tomahawk easily before the turn while Guest Of Honour and Kenjorwood pulled out to run on, the latter hard at it. Hollywood Bound stuck to the inside and made ground on the turn while Hijack Hussy was looking for runs through with Atlantis Dream getting a split. Kenjorwood was labouring further out and Petrology made a dash right down the outside. Nevis was still clear at the 300m in the centre of the track and they were no hope of catching him. A wall of the chased for the minors with Hijack Hussy getting through to grab Atlantis Dream for second, Guest Of Honour and Petrology were there while Survived boxed on okay just ahead of De Little Engine in an even first-up run. Kenjorwood wasn’t the same horse restrained.

Follow: Atlantis Dream is ready to win back in mares grade.

Specials from the meeting: The Bandit, Sheidel, Pure Pride, Atlantis Dream.

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Randwick Review

by Champion Picks on April 10, 2016

RANDWICK REVIEW – SATURDAY APRIL 9 2016

Race 1 – TFE HOTELS FERNHILL HANDICAP (1600m)

1st PRIZED ICON – Hugh Bowman
2nd CROWN HIM – Jason Collett
3rd LASQUETI SPIRIT – Winona Costin

Super start out of the middle by Crown Him to lead, with Prized Icon and Gravitate also out well. None of the small field attempted to find the rail however, which allowed Costin on Lasqueti Spirit to punch her mount through to the front on the inside. Crown Him and Prized Icon remained outside her with the latter being held up by Bowman to shift back alongside Bring Me The Bling in fourth. Next was Gravitate, then a gap to Hutcho and Reinforced bringing up the rear.

Mover at the 800m was Hutcho, Dunn taking him around the outside to run up to third outside Prized Icon, with Reinforced following suit immediately behind. Lasqueti Spirit held the rail and the lead into the straight, but a well-placed Prized Icon was immediately on her flank and putting pressure on. Just to their outside and back was Crown Him and Bring Me The Bling, however both were being slapped along by their riders and didn’t look any match for Prized Icon, Bowman getting him home by a couple of lengths.

Watch: none

Race 2 – MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400m)

1st HANDFAST – James McDonald
2nd SANTA ANA LANE – Hugh Bowman
3rd SERENE MAJESTY – Kerrin McEvoy

Reasonable start aside from Tulsa who missed it badly to be left behind, whilst at the other end King’s Troop won it from out wide and came across to take up the lead. Mawahibb settled second just in front of Kimberley Star on the rails, Look To The Stars next outside of Suspense, then Handfast, Santa Ana Lane and a length to Serene Majesty.

They cornered in a throng with King’s Troop still holding them off, but the mob soon swamped with Santa Ana Lane looking keenest out wide. Kimberley Star fell away and was overtaken by Handfast, McDonald weaving him through to make it a race in three. Santa Ana Lane was still looking likely but Handfast got to him and went straight past, claiming an impressive win by a couple of lengths. Further back, Serene Majesty and Craiglea Wandoo found the line well.

Watch: Handfast, Serene Majesty, Craiglea Wandoo.

Race 3 – THE PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)

1st DANISH TWIST – Damien Oliver
2nd POWERLINE – Brett Prebble
3rd HIS MAJESTY – Blake Shinn

Reasonable start from the big field of country goers with His Majesty immediately collared back and to the fence by Shinn. Powerline rolled across to lead with Zestful moving up on his outside, and Electric Power following suit wider again to move up to third. Marble Miss was back on the fence from Dream Lane whilst Better Not Blue also attempted to round them out wide. They held a very tight bunch with By Golly Molly next with Paaray and Danish Twist tucked in behind on the rail.

All got moving around the side as the mob continued to move together, Powerline taking the lead into the straight with Prebble jumping about all over him. It looked for more than a moment like he might do it, opening up a gap until the 200m when the chasing pack came in the form of Dream Lane, Zestful, His Majesty, and Danish Twist. The latter two – fourth and fifth at the 100m – absolutely rattled home with the huge run from Danish Twist on the outside being enough to edge them out. Further back, Hetty Heights also hit the line well after a less than ideal run.

Watch: Danish Twist, Powerline, Hetty Heights

Race 4 – IG MARKETS PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200m)

1st MISSROCK – Hugh Bowman
2nd PROMPT RESPONSE – Kerrin McEvoy
3rd SPRIGHT – Tommy Berry

Favourite Thyme For Roses was booted out of her wide gate by Clark, who kept pushing and pushing from deep until able to get across and claim the rail. Geneteau had also started well and was in second, followed by Prompt Response in a handy position, Missrock caught a little deep outside Twist Tops, likewise Soviet Secret outside Najmaat, then Emphatically, Spright, Palomino and So Serene. Upon reaching the front Clark attempted to slow his mount with only moderate success, the favourite over-racing as the hit they side of the course.

Thyme For Roses emerged in the lead with Clark still keeping a hold, however it wasn’t long after they fanned out that she was hit by the wall – Prompt Response, Missrock and Soviet Secret forming a line to sprint to the finish. Twist Tops was just behind them but never found a route, Missrock finishing the best the claim the chocolates. Spright ran on nicely for third.

Watch: none.

Race 5 – ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200m)

1st JAPONISME – Hugh Bowman
2nd COUNTERATTACK – Craig Williams
3rd TAKEDOWN – Brett Prebble

Fairly even start with Takedown and Kinglike getting the best of it and going out hard, along with Spill The Beans on the fence and Petit Filous out wide. Bowman pushed the favourite Japonisme through the middle of the field between Eqyptian Symbol and Bassett, with Hellbent behind on the fence and Counterattack caught deeper.

Kinglike claimed the lead around the turn and took it into the straight, just holding off Takedown and Japonisme, with Bowman sitting dead silent on the favourite. Egyptian Symbol found the fence and followed up the inside, McDonald had pushed Ghisoni forward through the traffic but was never finding a route past the leaders, and Williams had Counterattack raiding from the outside. Ultimately he would fail by the slimmest margins to run down Bowman and Japonisme.

Watch: Counterattack

Race 6 – JAMES BOAG’S PREMIUM AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400m)

1st SOFIA ROSA – Hugh Bowman
2nd AMBIENCE – James McDonald
3rd BELIEVE – Kerrin McEvoy

Slow start at the 2400 with Capella notably taken straight back and across, and Oliver doing likewise on the favourite Jameka. At the front it was four-way go for the lead heading into the first turn, Ambience pushing forward to have the rail from Honesta, Valley Girl and Self Esteem in a line outside her. Believe and Chaboud were next from Diamond Made, then Sophia Rose on the outside of Sacred Eye, a gap to Happy Hannah, Alaskan Rose and Single Gaze caught deep.

Up front Valley Girl had pushed forward to find the rail, but most willing was Self Esteem, Zahra happy to give her her head and let her run away. The lead got to around four lengths around the back of the course, Valley Girl still second from Ambience and Honesta caught wide without cover. First major mover was Believe at about the 1400, McEvoy taking her around traffic to move up to a clear third. Bowman was the next to do so further back on Sofia Rosa, whilst Oliver followed suit from even further back on the favourite Jameka.

By the 1000m Self Esteem was back with the field as Believe had shifted up to second, the mob bunching as they hit the side of the course. The pace picked up into the final turn with Shinn getting Happy Hannah moving around the outside in midfield, with Single Gaze following suit until a horrific looking fall just before the straight (horse and rider relatively ok). Up front Valley Girl had the rail and claimed a tiring Self Esteem, who nonetheless kept punching on. Ambience and Believe would claim her as well, but wider again it was Sofia Rosa and Jameka coming – the former with a super finish to claim the win. Nice finishes also from Jameka, who just had too much ground to make up late, and Chabaud and Capella.

Watch: Sofia Rose, Jameka, Chabaud, Capella.

Race 7 – SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200m)

1st GALLANTE – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd LIBRAN – Brenton Avdulla
3rd GRAND MARSHAL – James McDonald

Who Shot Thebarman, Bayanova and Almoonqith were taken straight to the back at the start, whilst the fight for the lead was won by Gallante, slotting in with Like A Carousel rolling forward on his outside. Auvrey was next, pretty handy on the speed and well placed third on the fence, with Café Society next in line with cover. A group of three then with Libran on the outside of Destiny’s Kiss, and Dee I Cee caught three wide in no-mans-land as Huet continued to push forward and settle just outside the leaders without cover. Grand Marshal sat in next on the fence.

Very orderly going for the long trip with nobody desperate to make any moves until they hit the side of the course, where Huet pushed Dee I Cee further forward to almost challenge Gallante for the lead, but still travelling deep. Into the last corner and Café Society loomed up three wide with Libran outside him and Who Shot Thebarman coming up wider still. Grand Marshal was caught behind them before finally getting a run as Who Shot Thebarman stepped out a little in the straight. Gallante just kept holding them off – Libran was the most likely challenger and Grand Marshal stuck with him, but the leader held it all the way for an impressive victory.

Watch: Gallante

Race 8 – THE COOLMORE LEGACY STAKES (1600m)

1st AZKADELLIA – Damien Oliver
2nd HEAVENS ABOVE – Tye Angland
3rd NOBLE PROTECTOR – Craig Williams

Favourite Azkadellia didn’t get the best start to be well back from the gates, with Vergara up the inside and Badawiya from wider came together to take up the lead. Next was Suavtio with Noble Protector placed nicely inside on the fence, Coronation Shallon caught deep outside them, Artistry behind on the fence with Miss Rose De Lago outside, then a gap to Casino Dancer, Risque and Lady Le Fay, then Heavens Above right back on the fence inside Azkadellia.

Avdulla let Vergara go a little up front, taking it out to a couple of lengths down the side of the course. In the final turn Zanbagh and Coronation Shallon got right out wide for a run, whilst favourite Azkadellia was glued to the fence before the inside lane opened up beautifully for her. She shot up the inside of Noble Protector to run away with it, with Heavens Above emerging and hitting the line nicely for second. A nice finish to from Lady La Fay.

Watch: Azkadella, Heavens Above, Lady La Fay

Race 9 – LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)

1st LUCIA VALENTINA – Damien Oliver
2nd THE UNITED STATES – Kerrin McEvoy
3rd HAPPY CLAPPER – Brenton Avdulla

Good fight for the front early with plenty wanting the lead, Awesome Rock eventually taking it upon settling from Leebaz on the fence and It’s Somewhat three deep. A gap then to Rising Romance with Mongolian Khan outside, having fought his way back through the field after slightly missing the start. Hauraki was sider still outside Criterion and Preferment, then Happy Clapper on the fence, The United States caught deep, Happy Trails, Fenway, Dibayani and Lucia Valentina bringing up the rear.

Around the side and It’s Somewhat and Mongolian Khan edged out slightly for some clear air, forming a wall of four outside Leebaz and Awesome Rock. Further back and Preferment was ridden hard in the middle, whilst Hauraki and Dibayani went widest for a run. Rising Romance and Happy Clapper looked likely up the inside before Lucia Valentina, having battled to find a run from dead last at the top of the straight despite Oliver looking everywhere, emerged from the pack after getting a gap – “like a shot out of a gun” as perfectly described by Darren Flindell – racing away for a super win from The United States, who also hit the line well, as did Happy Trails.

Watch: Lucia Valentina, The United States.

Race 10 – SENSIS SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200 METRES)

1st TWO BLUE – Paul King
2nd SECRET AGENDA – Dwayne Dunn
3rd BROOK ROAD – Chad Schofield

Two Blue was out best to claim the lead from Ottoman and Vezalay, Bounding next with Secret Agenda on the outside, then No More Tears, Griante and Brook Road stuck to the fence. Two Blue held them well with King not doing too much until the straight, where he largely had put paid to them by the 300m. Sultry Feeling and Peace Force ran off the track, the former actually finishing rather well, while closer in the chasing pack was headed by Secret Agenda, Vezalay and Brook Road. Nobody was getting near the leader however. Further back Cradle Me hit the line fairly well.

Watch: Two Blue

Horses to follow: Handfast, Danish Twist, His Majesty, Sofia Rose, Azkadellia, Lucia Valentina.

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Mornington/Randwick Reviews

by Champion Picks on April 3, 2016

MORNINGTON REVIEW – APRIL 3RD 2016 SATURDAY

Race 1: Window Warehouse Handicap (3400m)

1st Sly Romance – Michael Dee
2nd Deliberate – Declan Bates
3rd Prospector – Jake Bayliss

Lionpower held the early lead before Real Jazz pressed on to take over. Sparton moved up to second and Deliberate was tracking three wide. Sly Romancetucked in next while Celtic Prince and Taqneen were at the back. Not much change for a fair way, as you’d expect, and Real Jazz seemed to get an easy time. About 1200m to go Celtic Prince took off from the back and ran to the front, opening a few lengths on Real Jazz, Deliberate was still three wide and Sly Romance was on his back running on. They got to Celtic Prince on the turn as Deliberate and Sly Romance ran straight on by, Real Jazz couldn’t go with them and Prospector was battling on from the second half. Sly Romance raced clear late and was too good, though had the best run, for Deliberate, no luck, and Prospector plodded home for third. Real Jazz had every chance.

Follow: hurdles are in these horses’ future you’d think and Deliberate would be the one.

Race 2: No Fuss Event Hire (1200m)

1st A Lotta Love – Dylan Dunn/Mefnooda – Jake Noonan
3rd Our Harmony – Brandon Stockdale

Shacarde pushed up from her inside alley to lead with Andrioli up on her outside. A Lotta Love landed third with Our Harmony three wide and Pathwayson the fence. Cresta Condor was in the three wide line and Mefnooda on her back. Shacarde and Andrioli didn’t run along much in front and the latter was over racing. A Lotta Love moved three deep well before the turn, pushing Our Harmony deeper and Pathways stayed in the box seat. Mefnooda hooked onto the back of Our Harmony who was being pushed along at the 400m. A Lotta Love made her dash at the 200m and headed Shacarde, Andrioli punctured and Our Harmony was still coming wide out while Mefnooda peeled off her back and launched late. In a tight finish A Lotta Love looked to be home but Mefnooda made a dive and they couldn’t be split. Our Harmony was luckless in a close third. Behind them were Shacarde with Cresta Condor and Marli Magic, who sat back and ran on without threatening.

Follow: Mefnooda can only improve on her win with a bit more ground.

Race 3: Mornington Sires’ (1500m)

1st Jaws Of Steel – Brad Rawiller
2nd Pop – Michelle Payne
3rd Mr Markou – Stephen Baster

Watch My Shadow held the fence from the inside and led Pop with Jaws Of Steel tucking in for a trail. Bogong Road settled a few lengths back as the leaders put on the pace and strung the field out. Lycurgus was passed by Sebeauty wider out and Mr Markou was on the fence. Resort was taken back among the tail enders. Watch My Shadow opened up a handy lead midrace but by the 500m was a shot duck and the field swallowed him up with Pop and Jaws Of Steel taking over before the turn. Sebeauty and Lycurgus were running on wider out and Mr Markou ran up behind the leaders. Resort was pulled to the outside but spotted them a big start. Jaws Of Steel had Pop’s measure at the 200m and they were getting away from Mr Markou a bit one paced and Lycurgus and Resort battling on. Jaws Of Steel was strong to the line and edged away late to beat Pop, who stuck on well after doing the chasing, and Mr Markou was making a little late ground. Resort finished strongly when it was all over but don’t think Mornington is his track. Lycurgus was fair.

Follow: Resort on a bigger track.

Race 4: Mitavite Challenge Final (1600m)

1st Hokkaido – Regan Bayliss
2nd Honourable Tycoon – Stephen Baster
3rd Kiss Me Ketut – Jess Payne

Iteration missed it and Honourable Tycoon was eased out the back. Kiss Me Ketut ran to a clear lead with Steep up second and Beau Brommell in the box seat. Hokkaido was getting a nice trail ahead of Native Land and Tips And Beers. Kiss Me Ketut had them running in the middle stages and Steep was under pressure to go with her. Hokkaido peeled out three wide with Tips And Beers and Honourable Tycoon right off the track running on. Beau Brommell stayed on the fence. Hokkaido ran to Kiss Me Ketut inside the 200m and started to draw away. Beau Brommell was trying hard on the fence and Native Land and Honourable Tycoon were down the outside. Hokkaido had had enough by the line and he held half a length on Honourable Tycoon, beaten by the barrier, and Kiss Me Ketut held the rest off to claim third. Native Land had her chance and Beau Brommell was only fair but he was second-up and tends to improve.

Follow: none in particular.

Race 5: Land Engineering Handicap (2000m)

1st Velox – Dylan Dunn
2nd Kareeming – Rhys McLeod
3rd Golden Mane – Regan Bayliss

No surprises as Scelto went looking for the lead. Kareeming and Master Of Arts, who initially went back, pushed on to get onto the speed and Forever Truelet them go. Velox had the box seat and Master Zephyr was caught wide so he improved to move into second up the back straight. Master Of Arts eased to get a good trail in fifth. About 800m out Black Stardom made a fast move from the back and he raced up quickly to join Scelto. Kareeming moved three wide and Master Of Arts had his back while Velox and Master Zephyr were waiting. Scelto kicked back to see off the challenge of Black Stardom, who dropped out almost as fast as he went up, and Kareeming joined in. Master Of Arts was there in plenty of time while Velox persisted waiting for an inside run. Master Zephyr was in the clear and widest on the turn were Bondeiger and Golden Mane working home from the back. Kareeming hit the lead about 150m out and was running out a bit as Velox tried to get across his heels. Scelto was battling on the fence and Master Zephyr and Master Of Arts had their chance. Velox took a short time to balance up then he sprinted sharply to put the race away. Kareeming just held second from Golden Mane out wide and not much between Bondeiger, Master Of Arts and Scelto in a blanket finish behind the winner.

Follow: stick with Velox.

Race 6: Cleanaway Handicap (1200m)

1st Prussian Vixen – Dylan Dunn
2nd Stoker – Brandon Stockdale
3rd Vorspiel – Luke Nolen

Prussian Vixen showed a heap of speed and crossed from an outside gate with ease. Just Got Lucky was handy with Vorspiel and Magna Rossa three wide and easing for cover. Inner City Girl and Rezak were on the fence around midfield. Stoker settled second last. Prussian Vixen was untested in the lead and allowed to run along at a reasonable tempo. Just Got Lucky was being niggled before the turn to stay in touch, as was Vorspiel. Magna Rossa was asked to chase four deep and behind them Rezak was just battling. Stoker was still second last at the 200m and in traffic. At that point Prussian Vixen had kicked away again and opened up a couple over Just Got Lucky and Vorspiel still trying to reel her in. Inner City Girl was whacking away on the fence and Stoker finally got going but spotted the leader four at the 100m. Prussian Vixen was staggering over the last 50m but she just had enough to hold off Stoker, who wins in one more stride, and Vorspiel between them. Just Got Lucky was beaten half a length and they got way from the rest of the field headed by See Me Fly who made a bit of ground but wasn’t ever a chance.

Follow: watch for Stoker in a similar sort of race, but he can be costly.

Race 7: Mornington Guineas (1500m)

1st Tarquin – James Winks
2nd Lahqa – Regan Bayliss
3rd Get The Dukes Out – Dean Yendall

Gold Fields did a bit of work after a fair start but found the lead clear of Palace Tycoon and Rong Door ReggieLahqa eased for a trail leavingMunicipality three wide and Get The Dukes Out deeper. Unbreakable settled midfield on the fence. Gold Fields tried to break away from the 600m but they were queuing up to chase. Rong Door Reggie came off the fence as Palace Tycooon hung, Lahqa was wider out and Get The Dukes Out and Tarquinwere right off the track running on. Unbreakable was held up on the fence while But It’s True, after a poor start, tried to weave through. Palace Tycoon was checked out of it past the 200m. Lahqa and Rong Door Reggie swept past a beaten Gold Fields, further out Un De Sceaux was battling on while Get The Dukes Out and Tarquin were flashing home. Lahqa had it in the shadows of the post but Tarquin finished too strongly and a bit of class prevailed in a big win. Lahqa was game and Get The Dukes Out also a solid effort after sitting wide. Rong Door Reggie was close up with Un De Sceaux while the likes of Unbreakable and But It’s True ran okay without having all the luck.

Follow: Get The Dukes Out was a super effort.

Race 8: Hareeba Stakes (1200m)

1st Thermal Current – Harry Coffey
2nd Precious Gem – Jake Noonan
3rd Dan Zephyr – James Winks

Plenty of pressure for the early led and Mirage and Jabali took it up from Thermal Current inside Rough Justice and Murt The Flirt three out. Meursaultwas three deep with cover around Fast Cash and Dan Zephyr, the latter losing ground as Precious Gem slipped up on his inside. Wide out Reldas andSmokin’ Joey were making midrace runs from the back. Mirage still led them at the 400m but there was a line of about seven forming to his outside. Jabali hung off on the turn and Thermal Current took the gap, Murt The Flirt was battling and Meursault also folded up. Reldas looked as though he was going to explode down the outside but was one paced. Precious Gem followed Thermal Current and switched to his inside to chase him late. Murt The Flirt stayed on with Reldas while Dan Zephyr burst through about 50m out. Thermal Current was desperately ridden and managed to just hold off Precious Gem and Dan Zephyr, the latter a bit stiff. Gap to Inspector down the outside late with Reldas, Murt The Flirt, and Tonopah while Mirage was close up on the fence. Fast Cash seemed to have a good run and was probably not up to this level.

Follow: excellent runs from Precious Gem and Dan Zephyr.

Race 9: Mornington Cup (2400m)

1st Berisha – Daniel Moor
2nd Big Memory – Jamie Mott
3rd Lucky Lucky Lucky – James Winks

Observational was ridden hard to get onto the speed with Mujadale but Tom Melbourne held them out. Big Memory was looking for a spot behind them and slotted in outside Don DoremoPemberley let him go and Dandy Gent was stuck three wide around him with Lucky Lucky Lucky on the fence. Tom Melbourne was fired up in front and was a couple clear of Mujadale heading down the back with Observational a similar gap away with Don Doremo. Big Memory was getting a perfect trail. Mujadale was being pushed to go with Tom Melbourne by the 800m and Observational pulled out three wide to get into the action, Don Doremo was still behind the leader while Big Memory started his run. Lucky Lucky Lucky was working off the fence at the expense of Pemberley while Puccini took the inside run. Tom Melbourne was under serious pressure before the turn and Big Memory went straight past. Lucky Lucky Lucky loomed with Pemberley out wider and Berisha getting between them. Puccini struck trouble and collided with Don Doremo on the turn as Tom Melbourne dropped off. Big Memory went for home and looked to be holding them at the 100m but Berisha started to storm. Berisha finished right over the top of Big Memory to win with Lucky Lucky Lucky just holding third from Puccini. Tom Melbourne was galloped on but they all just went far too hard.

Follow: none.

Race 10: Building Brands (1000m)

1st Well Sprung – Ben Melham
2nd Hotel Sierra – Jake Bayliss
3rd Rock ‘N’ Gold – Andrew Mallyon

Squeaky Squirrel was a bit slow out but improved through to fourth. Jungle Edge and Day After Tomorrow had the lead from Petite’s Reward outside them. Squeaky Squirrel raced inside Face Forward with Well Sprung three out around The Dynamo and Marwood on the fence. Day After Tomorrow railed through to lead on the turn though Jungle Edge was still there, Face Forward made a quick move around Petite’s Reward while Squeaky Squirrel was held up on the fence. Wider out Rock ‘N’ Gold and Well Sprung were chiming in. Day After Tomorrow was giving a kick and did crowd Squeaky Squirrel a little. But out in the centre Well Sprung produced a sprint and finished too well to score from Hotel Sierra charging home from last and Rock ‘N’ Gold staying on for third. Squeaky Squirrel finished just behind them and was a little unlucky. Marwood also caught the eye getting through late, he also played up in the barriers pre-race.

Follow: Marwood might be in for a good prep

Specials from the meeting: Resort, Mefnooda, Get The Dukes Out, Marwood

—–

RANDWICK REVIEW – SATURDAY APRIL 2 2016

Race 1 – WIDDEN KINDERGARTEN STAKES (1100m)

1st EL DIVINO – Blake Shinn
1st ASTERN – James McDonald
3rd GENETEAU – Damian Lane
(Dead heat for first)

Hot favourite Astern was a little restless in the gates and was all over the place out of the outside lane, snagging sideways before McDonald got hold of him and put him back to work. He took the colt back initially along with Prince Chabal and Let’s Dream Big, before beating him up the outside toward the front where he was caught four wide without cover. Geneteau had started well and settled in the lead on the fence, Hostwin Legend on his flank, El Divino next and then Lionhearted. Alliterate was next on the fence, tailed by Mooshakissa.

They played to position for the run around the bend, with the leader Geneteau coming well off the fence as they straightened and taking the rest of the field with him. El Divino and Astern soon emerged the two most likely, both going away down the outside to battle to the line. The favourite looked to have momentum by El Divino simply would not lie down, the pair going stride for stride and hitting the line with nothing between them. Geneteau held on for third from Alliterate and Hostwin Legend.

Watch: Astern – would have won the race given a more charmed run, managed a deadheat nonetheless despite being caught very deep for the whole run.

Race 2 – CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)

1st HE’S OUR ROKKII – Dwayne Dunn
2nd ODYSSEY MOON – Blake Shinn
3rd QUEEN OF WANDS – Zac Purton

Reasonably good line out apart from the two outside, Queen of Wands laying a bit of a bump on the widest Data Point as they jumped to leave the pair trailing and a little at sea. Odyssey Moon took up the running in the early part with Moher outside of him, with a length back to Tatoosh sandwiched between Montauk and He’s Our Rokkii, caught three wide. Another length back to Hierarchal and Rosaleisha, with Bowman having wrestled Data Point back into things on their outside, leaving Queen of Wands at the back.

The run was fairly settled around the side with only Montauk, third on the rail, looking a little eager to get moving. The movement approaching the home turn was all outside, He’s Our Rockkii caught three wide the entire run and urged forward by Dunn, whilst Bowman looked to trail him on Data Point. They again came off the fence as they straightened, Moher and Odyssey Moon still heading them, until He’s Our Rockkii was asked the question and responded in the affirmative. Odyssey Moon offered brief resistance but Dunn had all the momentum, whilst in the middle of the track Data Point and Queen of Wands hit the line impressively given their runs.

Watch: He’s Our Rockii, Data Point, Queen of Wands – none had a perfect run (particularly the latter two), but all responded well in the straight.

Race 3 – SCHWEPPES CHAIRMAN’S HANDICAP (2600m)

1st LIBRAN – Brenton Avdulla
2nd ALEGRIA – Sam Clipperton
3rd CAFÉ SOCIETY – Zac Purton

Supercoach and Wales were slow out of the gates whilst Café Society got the best of it. He took the lead and settled into the most pedestrian pace possible – he crawled along with Supercoach next on the fence, having been mustered up despite a slower start, and Dee I Cee outside on him one wide. Next was the favourite Libran with a bit of cover one off the fence, Alegria on the inside, then Auvrey, Destiny’s Kiss, High Opinion and Wales at the back.

Dee I Cee moved up slightly to claim second on the outside and that was that for much of the run – Purton on Café Society content to go along at a snail’s pace and nobody else seemingly bothered either. The favourite Libran had settled into fourth and relaxed well, whilst Prebble on Supercoach considered a move up the inside when the leader moved out a little, but ultimately held tight.

At the 600 metres and all with a full tank of fuel, Purton asked a little of Café Society and got out by a couple of lengths. Supercoach was done and pulled out, swamped by all as they turned behind the leader, who had got well off the fence into the straight. Alegria and Libran led the pursuit – inside and outside respectively – to eventually just claim Café Society without another second to spare. Auvrey ran on reasonably after being hard-ridden in the turn.

Watch: none.

Race 4 – THE COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)

1st CLEARLY INNOCENT – Tommy Berry
2nd PERA PERA – Hugh Bowman
3rd EVER SO NATURAL – Damien Oliver

Lovely line out of the gates with Something Borrowed going back immediately, along with Bank On Henry and After All That. Good battle up front with Ultimate Dreamer claiming it initially, from Mitchell Road caught outside and Profiler next. Steakandbearnaise pushed up the inside from a mob of horses, with Pera Pera out wide and Ashjata trailing caught deeper again. Berry relaxed Clearly Innocent and settled back to about third last, as did Oliver on Ever So Natural.

The large field travelled in a very tight bunch, Bank On Henry attempted to round them all around the turn, Ashjate tracking in and Lofty’s Menu also attempting to join in. Ultimate Dreamer held the lead into the straight but the mob was coming, the first challenger being Mitchell Road, who was immediately claimed by a hard-finishing Pera Pera. Next in line was Ever So Natural, Oliver having found the outside and extracting plenty from his mount from well back. But emerging was Clearly Innocent – Berry having ridden him for luck, he found a path through the maze and appeared up the inside, not having to be asked twice as e shot forward with a withering burst of speed. It was an easy win in the end, Ever So Natural and Another Valley the best finishers of the rest.

Watch: Clearly Innocent, Ever So Natural – both showed very impressive speed.

Race 5 – DILMAH TEA P J BELL STAKES (1200m)

1st TEMPT ME NOT – Glyn Scholfield
2nd PEARLS – James McDonald
3rd EGYPTIAN SYMBOL – Brenton Avdulla

Tempt Me Not jumped well from wide and shot straight across, whilst closer to the fence the two pushing forward successfully were Lady Sniper and Alart. Denmagic was caught wide of them whilst Painted Firetail was next back on the fence, from Pearls, Lady Jivago and Regatta Rebel. Denpurr and Denmagic were caught wide Egyptian Symbol and favourite Super Cash further back.

The favourite got very deep around the turn, moving around the field cornering widest with Perignon tracking. Alart had the lead into the straight and stayed clear of the fence, but was soon by Tempt Me Not, who flew past at first time of asking. Pearls made up ground late but it was over a fair way from home, Egyptian Symbol, Super Cash and Denmagic also finishing well after covering a lot of ground.

Watch: Tempt Me, Pearls, Denmagic.

Race 6 – INGLIS SIRES’ (1400m)

1st YANKEE ROSE – Zac Purton
2nd TELPERION – James McDonald
3rd FARAWAY TOWN – Jay Ford

Good Standing flew out of the wide gate to claim the early lead, but stayed wide and was soon caught by a group led by Detective, with Zamzam on the outside and Sparkle on the fence. Next was Attention on the inside joined by Omei Sword and Telperion, Yankee Road next caught a little deep, with Faraway Town, Rivo Boy, Chimbora and Seaburge last of all.

Sparkle maintained the inside running and soon claimed the lead, Detective holding second whilst Zam Zam and Good Standing looked to round the corner wide. Taking advantage of this cover into the straight was Yankee Rose, trailing outside, with the field fanning right out for the dash to the line. Foot to the floor stuff and Yankee Rose had the biggest engine, Purton booting her home to win by three lengths easing up. Telperion put in a good run to be clear of the rest, with Faraway Town and Rivo Boy hitting the line well.

Watch: Yankee Rose – impressive turn of foot.

Race 7 – BMW AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)

1st TAVAGO – Tommy Berry
2nd JAMEKA – Damien Oliver
3rd TALLY – James McDonald

Jameka jumped well from outside to race up to the front, but was beaten there by those with a shorter journey, namely On So Spendido, Tarzino and What’s The Story, whilst Tavago sat comfortably on the fence and Etymology was also handy. Next was Alfden on the fence from Sovereign Nation, Torgersen one out, and Vanbrugh with Tally caught wide.

Jameka had been forced to take the first turn wide and Oliver kept the foot down along the back of the course, pushing her forward to sit outside Oh So Spendido on the pace. Tavago and the favourite Tarzino were next with good cover as the speed settled, with a length back to Alfden and What’s The Story the best of the rest. Around halfway and the mover was Tally, McDonald willing to cover extra ground to get around and sit on Tarzino’s flank. As they hit the side of the course however Newitt took his chance to move ahead and stepped Tarzino out three wide. Finally then the speed picked up and it was Jameka making the running, Newitt stretching her out as Tarzino applied the pressure.

Meanwhile Tavago held the rails run and kept in touch with the leaders, cornering on the inside to be close to Jameka as Tarzino battled away on the outside, Tally right on his hammer. They were free to battle each other as Tavago has simply shot away, going away to win it easily by at least three lengths. Jameka ran on to be clear of the rest and Tally passed a faltering Tarzino.

Watch: Tavago – far too good, though did get a fairly charmed run.

Race 8 – DARLEY T J SMITH STAKES (1200m)

1st CHAUTAUQUA – Tommy Berry
2nd FELL SWOOP – Zac Purton
3rd ENGLISH – Blake Shinn

Big field for the big sprint and it was Our Boy Mallachi who settled at the front, with Flamberge outside and Fell Swoop wider still just off them. Dothraki was next in behind, with Shiraz and Rebel Dane right off the track, whilst Famous Seamus had the fence. The favourite Exosphere was next, just off was Terravista and Delectation, then English, Knoydart, Fast ‘n’ Rocking, Boss Lane and the reigning champ Chautauqua last of all and giving them a length.

Our Boy Mallachi and Fell Swoop cornered first with Shiraz off them fairly deep, and Exosphere and English tagging him in. Next in line was Terravista, Rebel Dane and finally Chautauqua, still last and deepest on the track. The leader had them by a coupel of lengths at the 300m, but was soon caught by Fell Swoop and Dothraki, whilst the wide runners were led by a charging Terravista as Exosphere fell out of it. Outside Terravista was a huge run English, but even that was put in the shade by the freak that is Chautauqua. He barely seemed to touch the ground over the final furlong to salute by a length.

Watch: Chautauqua, English – English was overshadowed by the winner, who was jaw-dropping.

Race 9 – THE STAR DONCASTER MILE (1600m)

1st WINX – Hugh Bowman
2nd HAPPY CLAPPER – Brenton Avdulla
3rd AZKADELLIA – Glen Boss

Some slow starters here with Azkadellia and Winx out last and settling toward the back with He Or She, First Seal and Rudy. At the front Vergara took up the lead from Turn Me Loose, then Equador, Kermadec and Aomen on the fence. Stratum Star was next with Good Project on his outside, then a length to Bow Creek and Happy Clapper a little deep. Bowman was moving Winx up somewhat to be the first of the backmarkers and the side of the course.

O’Hara put the foot down on Vergara and went out by a length from Turn Me Loose, Equador wider still and Good Project attempting to go around them all. Stratum Star and Kermadec meanwhile were more comfortable tucked on the inside.

Vergara broke out to a very healthy lead in the straight, hard ridden, and no prizes who led the chasing pack – Bowman rode Winx for luck and got the daylight he needed, the champion rushing up to the leader. Happy Clapper and Azkadellia has grand runs but were still no match.

Watch: Azkadella, Happy Clapper – both only overshadowed by a true freak.

Race 10 – TAB ADRIAN KNOX STAKES (2000m)

1st DIAMOND MADE – Glyn Schofield
2nd ALASKAN ROSE – Dwayne Dunn
3rd ZASORCERESS – Tommy Berry

Bulla Baby was out first but the lead was soon claimed by Zasorceress on the inside, whilst Aurora’s Star was caught three wide in third. Shotgun Roulette was next then Sacred Eye, Diamond Made, a gap back top Cry For Terre, Alittle Loose and Rainbow Park caught wide, then a further gap to Daisy’s Joy, Karakalass and favourite Alaskan Rose a long way back in a stretched-out field.

Quite orderly going as Berry kept up the pace held a handy lead on Zasorceress, before they bunch a little at the side of the course and cut it back to a length. Nonetheless Zasorceress held the lead as the chasers came led by Bulla Baby and Sacred Eye. Zasorceress looked to almost have it before the huge late runs down the centre from Diamond Made and Alaskan Rose to claim it.

Watch: Diamond Made, Alaskan Rose, very impressive runs late.

Horse to follow: Astern, Clearly Innocent, Data Point, English, and of course – Winx and Chautauqua!

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Decision Technology has built a range of proprietary models for football (soccer) prediction and player analysis.

Dr Paul Jackson is a Project Manager with DecTech and he’s on the podcast to talk about his journey from being the son of a bookie, to a PHD in High Energy Physics and finally his career in sports analytics including soccer predictions and betting.

Punting Insights

  • How DecTech were deep into analytics well before the Moneyball phenomenon
  • Why the model’s inputs are not over-complicated
  • Rating players across different competitions
  • How they help high net worth clients with their own trading
  • Why they are looking to expand to t20 cricket, snooker and rugby

Today’s Guest:

Paul Jackson

>> Click here to read the transcript

Dave Duffield:
G’day Paul, thanks for joining us.

We are betting from all angles but you’re certainly the first person I’ve had on that has a PHD in high energy physics.

Paul Jackson:
There’s actually quite a few physicists in the statistical community at the moment it feels like.

Dave Duffield:
There’s a crossover there, is there?

Paul Jackson:
Oh, definitely.

Dave Duffield:
You did the PHD and then ended up in financial services, just tell the listeners a little bit about your background.

Paul Jackson:
Yeah, sure. Funnily enough actually back when I was a kid my dad was a bookmaker, so it’s quite ironic to be on the other side, especially as he taught me that in the long run it’s the bookie who always wins.
I did a degree in Physics and then took that on to a PHD in High Energy Physics, and then decided it was time to go into the real world, unfortunately, so I worked for a company called SunGard who are a financial services company. A lot of my friends were quite surprised at the jump from physics to finance, but there’s the use of these transferable skills … So modelling and statistical analysis and developing code. High Energy Physics is probably 90% about writing good code rather than physics.

Then after doing that for a few years, I decided that I wanted a better work / life balance, and so was looking around for an interesting challenge, and found DecTech. The plan was to go and work at DecTech and retrain as a behavioural scientist, but I very quickly managed to get transferred onto the sports analytics team. I’ve been with DecTech for five years now.

Dave Duffield:
So you transferred to sports analytics, was that all part of your grand plan?

Paul Jackson:
Not initially, I mean I was certainly fascinated to see that DecTech was doing work in this area as well. But I have to say once I did behavioural science the work of the analytics team was clearly much more interesting for me personally.

Dave Duffield:
What is that work, what does DecTech actually do?

Paul Jackson:
DecTech is a spin out from Warwick University, so they were set up to apply behavioural science to real world situations, basically to help FTSE 100 companies use the insights of the latest behavioural research to effectively sell more stuff. In that first year of setting up, Henry decided that he’d also like to turn his hand at a football model, and out of that model grew the sports analytics side of the company.

Dave Duffield:
You might want to talk about that football model, is the origins of that the Fink Tank ratings?

Paul Jackson:
Yeah, it’s how the Fink Tank came about. The model that Henry worked with he famously predicted Senegal’s win over France in 2002. And I suspect that it was just more likely that there would be an upset, obviously we’re all about probability. But Daniel Finkelstein, who’s now Lord Finkelstein, heard this on the radio, got in touch and that’s where the Fink Tank was born. That’s continued now, so that’s … What’s it’s 2016 so fourteen years that’s been going now?

Dave Duffield:
Okay, so I mean you can’t go into too much detail as to how they’re generated, but they cover all the major English leagues and in the Australian language I suppose you’d say, there’s probabilities for each outcome and those probabilities obviously easily transfer into odds. The people that have backed the overlays, the value based on those ratings, have done quite well?

Paul Jackson:
Yeah, absolutely. Obviously we’ve got a very academic background, so when we started to work in football it wasn’t really with an eye on trading in particular. However very quickly the benchmark to test yourself against is obviously the bookmakers, and so over time we ended up discovering that we had a model that seemed to consistently perform quite well.

Then I think it was around 2006, we started to publish our predictions for free online, and in 2008 the Secret Betting Club picked up those predictions and started to effectively proof us even though we were just obviously, we didn’t have a relationship with them at that point. They also independently found that we seemed to be on to something with our model, and continued to follow us until we decided to take the free website down, at which point Pete got in touch to ask if his members could still keep access.

Dave Duffield:
I speak to a local sports modeller and I think he said he had seventy thousand variables in the latest model that he’s working on, but with this one, this was a lot simpler and you weren’t looking to cover every aspect of every game, it was using a few key inputs to generate those probabilities?

Paul Jackson:
Yeah, that’s it. We’re certainly nowhere near that number of parameters in our model. The model could include a lot more information, and as research internally we do put a lot of work into, partly because the Fink Tank is always throwing up these interesting questions about certain myths in football and interesting potential correlates. We take that, the model that we always published I think we appreciate the consistency, that people know that it’s the same predictions this week as two years ago, because that allows them to make a consistent system off the back of it.

The model that we provide to SBC and that we used to publish on the website has remained pretty consistent and internally we do look at trying to incorporate things. For example, we’ve got a player rating model which we used with some of our clients; and do you know it’s actually incredibly difficult to add additional information that’s statistically significant? I think if we ever found something that we could actually put a cast iron guarantee on then we would update the model that we publish externally. But actually it’s really quite challenging, it’s not just about doing better, it’s about doing sufficiently well that it’s worth making that big change of saying actually now it’s effectively a new model.

Dave Duffield:
Is that because a lot of the important and more well known factors are already we would say ‘baked into the cake’? They’re already in the odds available, so you’re trying to find something that’s significantly undervalued?

Paul Jackson:
Well, for example the model doesn’t know anything about team lineups, so for example if your favourite two strikers are injured then you’d expect that team to obviously under-perform and the model won’t know about that. However, whenever we looked into this it feels like even if the model is under-reacting to those sort of events, everyone else is perhaps overreacting. Even though the model isn’t taking it into account somehow it manages to still work over the long term.

But that said, I know that there were other people out there who in the past have used our ratings because one of the great things about providing the free ratings was we did get a lot of interesting discussions from people who were feeding them into their own models, and so I think it is possible to do something around team lineup and what have you. We see hints of it in the stuff we do internally, but as I say it’s just really difficult to come up with a solid statistical basis that the bunch of academics that we are would be happy to put our names behind.

Dave Duffield:
Right, so something like Head to Head record and how that affects the results of the next match-up, is that something that has … Maybe significance but does it have any value from a betting perspective?

Paul Jackson:
That’s a good example actually, because in the last couple of months we actually had a Fink Tank about Head to Head records. We found that although Head to Head records do a reasonable job … If you take, say, I think it was the eight most recent matches, it does a reasonable job of predicting the most likely outcome, but it does a terrible job compared to if you were going to try and use those outcomes in a probabilistic sense and try and use them to generate odds to take on the bookmakers. So I think the answer on that sort of Head to Head stuff is there’s something there, but the information already in the model is capturing it and is doing a better job on top of that.

Dave Duffield:
You mentioned player ratings earlier. How do you put a number on a player, particularly when you’re talking about many different competitions and just a different level of skill and class across those different competitions?

Paul Jackson:
Yeah, actually comparing across competitions is incredibly difficult, and we use more than one technique, we use several techniques. That’s actually an area that we kept quite close to our chest actually, because I think in the past some of our ideas have moved out into the community, which is fantastic, but as a business that needs to try and make money and pay the wages of the employees I think in the past we’ve perhaps given a bit too much away. But you’re right; comparing players is incredibly challenging across leagues, and I think is one of the things that we can do better than most people. Actually, fairly confident we can do actually better than our competitors.

Within the match itself, so obviously a single match we feel doesn’t provide nearly enough information on a player’s ability, and so although we can provide ratings when we have perhaps five hundred minutes where there’s a very large uncertainty that we would flag up to our clients about that. But over a season, or potentially if we’ve got ideally a couple of seasons on a player, then they do have enough interactions that we feel that we can come up with a good assessment of their contribution. Basically we look at their impact for each of those actions, so for example if someone takes the ball on the halfway line and passes it and the pass is received by one of his team mates in a more attacking position, then we have an estimate of how much more likely that is to produce a goal and we can sum that up over the match and assign the various credits and deficits to players based on whether they were helping their team to score or hindering.

Dave Duffield:
So is soccer harder to model because it’s such a low scoring game? I’d imagine NBA Basketball and it’s one hundred points to ninety-eight, you can see all the scoring events and what lead up to those and the various players contribution to that. Is soccer harder because there’s often just one, two or three goals scored?

Paul Jackson:
I think, yeah definitely it makes it harder. You start to look for kind of the next steps, so for example the quality of the shots on target, or other interactions that can lead to those shots. I think that adds an extra layer of complexity. There are also other issues as well; football is obviously twenty-two people on the pitch, and so there’s a lot more interactions and in basketball the number of passes that a particular player makes is much more numerous, so you can capture data on those players more quickly. Also, those American sports they also play each other much more often, and so there are lots of reasons why I think football is harder to model.

Dave Duffield:
So there’s the media side, and then the management side. Of particular interest to the listeners I’m sure to this would be the trading side, what’s your involvement there in terms of your own trading?

Paul Jackson:
We feel it’s important that we also see risk based on the back of our predictions, so we actually do trade ourselves but we only trade on Betfair. Which is interesting, because it’s not part of SBC’s panel, so I feel quite happy about that, that we’re not potentially affecting the quality of their tips. We also analyse the market and we know that we’re not in any way moving Betfair’s market in any detectable manner, as well. I think that’s really important, that if our tips aren’t of a good quality that we suffer financially. But the other thing, as a bunch of academics we love a nice data set, and so it allows us to capture interesting information and also we try various different strategies on a smaller scale as well, to see how they perform in the real world. So that’s our own personal involvement.

Of course, you’ve mentioned we’ve since partnered with the Secret Betting Club to provide our tips to them in England exclusively. In the past we have worked with odds compilers, which has been interesting because most of that was before my time and the culture of numbers and statistics in bookmaking seemed to be just as reluctantly taken on board as within the football teams themselves.
Actually that’s really been interesting in football, because of course DecTech being involved for so many years kind of pretty much predates the moneyball phenomenon getting traction in the press and within the football clubs themselves. We’ve seen as we’ve visited other clubs over time that that initial reluctance to trust numbers is slowly improving and people are becoming more receptive to it, and I think that’s true of the bookmakers as well.

Dave Duffield:
As people become more receptive to it, does that mean that the market becomes more efficient and what edges or what values there was previously tends to gradually disappear over time?

Paul Jackson:
I would expect that to be true. Although, we’ve often revisited this and it’s very hard to find a trend to suggest that it’s happening, and I don’t know whether that’s because the volume of money in the markets is driven by effectively the punter who just wants to have a bit more excitement when he watches his team. You’d imagine the likes of Star Lizard and the other analytical guys, I know they obviously have huge bankrolls but that said the betting market globally is incredibly huge as well. I’m sure they can move individual markets with individual bookmakers, but perhaps there’s just not enough statistical people out there, and there’s perhaps a little bit for everyone.

I think the other thing that might be worth saying as well is I get the impression that the likes of Star Lizard also to make it worth their while they are very much in the markets where there’s very high liquidity, whereas perhaps on a Friday afternoon when the tips are being sent out, which is when we tend to do most of our analysis against, perhaps they’re just not in the market at that point and so there’s still an opportunity for everyone else to make some money.

Dave Duffield:
Just to finish up then, to quote from your website it mentions that you provide “high net worth clients with the tools to help them trade on their own account and can create bespoke analysis to maximize their returns”. I know you won’t be able to go into a high level of detail, but are you able to expand on that at all?

Paul Jackson:
Yeah, so this is something that has actually been around … I’ve been at DecTech five years and so this has been going on since before then, and there’s been some very interesting stories. For example, these individuals are often able to negotiate special … With the bookmakers, and then they come to us to get advice, for example, on how to manipulate that special offer to their advantage. Obviously over time, the bookmakers have got more and more wise to people doing this sort of thing. Also just occasionally perhaps one of them fancies something to do with snooker and so in the past I know that we’ve done a little model of snooker, I think this was to analyze the chance of a 1-4-7 for a particular player. They also obviously take our predictions as well, but we don’t do any of the bet placing or bankroll management.

Dave Duffield:
You mentioned snooker, and obviously football … Soccer in our lingo. Are they the only two sports that you cover?

Paul Jackson:
We’ve done some stuff for rugby in the past, which unfortunately at that time the data set just wasn’t as detailed. So we use Opta data primarily for our player analysis and something similar in rugby just wasn’t possible at that time. We’ve also got a cricket model that works for t20 cricket, and that’s more of a research project for us, I think that’s the sport that we’d probably most like to focus on in the future.

Dave Duffield:
Would that have a pre-game focus or in-game?

Paul Jackson:
I think probably pre-game would be our focus. But that said, even within football we don’t trade in game, we do have models that work in-game as well. In fact when we were working on one of the major competitions, there was a lovely widget that took the current score and the number of cards in the match and a few other factors and you were able to track over time the chance of your team winning. Which was really quite nice, although we don’t have the data set to compare that to the bookmakers. So it would be interesting to come back to that in the future when we’ve got the data to see how well the in-play version of the model works.

Dave Duffield:
Sounds like you’re only limited by access to that data and just how many hours there are in a day?

Paul Jackson:
There’s definitely so many ideas that we could work on as a team that we don’t have time for.

Dave Duffield:
Excellent, well I really appreciate you coming on the show, Paul. I’m sure it’s been insightful for the listeners, and best of luck for the rest of 2016.

Paul Jackson:
Great, thank you. Thank you for inviting me.

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Super simple to follow

by David on March 30, 2016

This short video shows how easy it is to follow Snowy’s Bets:

Early bets – Nathan will send you his bets at 9am since that is when the NSW minimum bet rules kick in. You should place those bets right away as we expect those horses to firm.

Bets to monitor – sent between 11am and 12pm are horses we want to back, but you don’t need to get in immediately. Top tote or top fluc can be a good option here.

So you’re getting 90% of the bets made by the full ratings service, but at half the price. We bet into all NSW metro meetings plus Wyong, Newcastle, Kembla Grange and Gosford.

Click here to get on board.

Snowy's bets1m

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Caulfield/Rosehill Reviews

by Champion Picks on March 27, 2016

CAULFIELD REVIEW – MARCH 26th 2016 SATURDAY

Race 1: Robert Taranto Handicap (1100m)

1st Najmaat – Nick Hall
2nd Highland Beat – Dylan Dunn
3rd Gretna – Mark Zahra

Speed came from wide out with Nine Clouds looking for the fence with Pluto and Wazamba easing, unable to match their pace. Najmaat jumped fairly but gathered speed to kick up and hold those leaders off the fence and Preemptive was with her. Tokelau followed Najmaat through while Gretna and Highland Beat settled in the second half. Najmaat joined Nine Clouds past the 600m and took over. Pluto was stuck three wide and Wazamba four deep under some pressure. Tokelau and Preemptive were hard at it behind the leaders. Najmaat sprinted away early in the straight and opened up a winning lead. A wall of them were chasing with Nine Clouds boxing on, Preemptive there and Highland Beat coming down the outside. Gretna was badly held up as the runs came and had to check and get across heels but the race was over by the time she could get going again. Najmaat had enough in hand to hold off Highland Beat while Gretna charged late into third, quite unlucky, while Wazamba just battled after not being able to find any cover. Couldn’t say much about the others.

Follow: Gretna had genuine excuses.

Race 2: Bill Collins Handicap (2400m)

1st High Church – Katelyn Mallyon
2nd Settler’s Stone – Jason Benbow
3rd Winter Palace – Brandon Stockdale

Adirondack worked across from the outside gate to the lead without too much trouble. Manhattan Ménage had his back and High Church was up handy.Deliberate landed in a good trail around Red Fella while Nassi and Aggregator were the next pair. Adirondack ran along a little in the lead and was left alone a couple clear of Manhattan Ménage in the middle stages and the order didn’t change significantly to the 800m where the field started to bunch. High Church was the first to make a move as Manhattan Ménage dropped off. Deliberate was being hard ridden to get into the action and wide out Nassi was running on. High Church took over from Adirondack at the 300m, Red Fella got into the clear in time and Aggregator was still there while down the outside came Settler’s Stone. High Church was starting to paddle in the shadows and they were coming from everywhere with Settler’s Stone diving, Red Fella andWinter Palace getting through closer to the fence. But High Church just clung on to win from Settler’s Stone and Winter Palace. Adirondack just didn’t run the 2400m out strongly from in front but was far from disgraced.

Follow: none.

Race 3: Bert Bryant Handicap (2000m)

1st Miss Wynette – Brandon Stockdale
2nd Tears Of Joy – Nick Hall
3rd Testability – Glen Boss

Testability broke well from the inside but it didn’t look like they wanted the lead and eventually Miss Wynette took over. Tears Of Joy was caught wide and worked up to sit outside the lead while Pindan Pearl let them go to be in a good spot. Quicksilver Lass and Magnus Slipper were the next pair in midfield as they pulled up in front. Choux Diva and Winta Chiller made midrace moves around the field and Sure You Can followed them forward aroundDubrovnik. A line of five coming to the turn but Miss Wynette and Tears Of Joy still travelled well. Pindan Pearl was flushed out by Choux Diva whose run was short lived. Testability had to wait behind that group for a run. Sure You Can peeled widest in the straight. Miss Wynette and Tears Of Joy were still at it by the 200m with Pindan Pearl trying to match them. Testability couldn’t take a small run that presented and had to keep waiting and that quartet got away from Sure You Can starting to run on. Miss Wynette had enough in hand to win narrowly over Tears Of Joy who had her chance and Testability, who probably would have been better off leading. Nice run behind them from Sure You Can who made a long run.

Follow: Sure You Can looks close to a win.

Race 4: Jack Elliott Handicap (1100m)

1st Petits Filous – Michael Dee
2nd Grey Street – Brandon Stockdale
3rd Jalan Jalan – Luke Nolen

The Big Dance went looking for the lead but Petits Filous was having none of it and held the fence. Our Vidia was looking for a spot wide out but was kept there by Serenade. Jalan Jalan improved along the fence to be behind the leader at the expense of Cana and Grey Street. Petits Filous settled well in the lead coming to the turn with The Big Dance not applying much pressure and Our Vidia stuck outside them. Jalan Jalan was waiting and a run opened up soon after straightening as Petits Filous found a couple of lengths. Petits Filous was asked to go at the 200m and sprinted though it looked as though Grey Street was going to pose a threat coming down the outside. Jalan Jalan couldn’t go with them while Our Vidia was boxing on. Petits Filous was ridden out hands and heels while Grey Street was peaking on her run late and Petits Filous was simply too good. Jalan Jalan held third in a satisfactory return while Our Vidia wasn’t disgraced after her wide run while Serenade had her chance.

Follow: outside the winner, Our Vidia deserves another chance.

Race 5: Geoff Murphy Handicap (1100m)

1st Miss Promiscuity – Dylan Dunn
2nd Sabatini – Ben Thompson
3rd Tycoon Tara – Steven Arnold

Pretty Possum jumped straight on the lead though Miss Promiscuity was right there with her early on. Enquare was three out looking for a spot whileSabatini was also wide on her back. I’m A Flying Star and Tycoon Tara kept her out there. Miss Steele was easing off their heels between Tawteen, who didn’t jump well, and Kansas Sunflower on the fence. Pretty Possum was kept busy enough by Miss Promiscuity coming to the bend and the latter hit the lead soon after. Enquare was still there and Sabatini pulled off her back to start a run. Tycoon Tara went back to the inside. Miss Promiscuity went for home and when Sabatini loomed up inside the 200m she still had a kick left. They got away from Enquare with Tycoon Tara continuing to run on down near the rail. Miss Promiscuity looked to be holding Sabatini in the last few strides and race fitness may have been the difference. Tycoon Tara ran well fresh and merit in Enquare’s first-up run after sitting side.

Follow: Sabatini and Enquare will both benefit from the first-up run.

Race 6: Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap (1800m)

1st Ungrateful Ellen – Mark Zahra
2nd Gingerboy – Tom Sadler
3rd Himalaya Dream – Dylan Dunn

Himalaya Dream made a beeline for the front from a wide gate and found the fence clear of Crimson Cape and Gingerboy with a trail. Ungrateful Ellenwas a couple back around Master Zephyr and Westsouthwest had cover behind that pair. Himalaya Dream did his own thing in the lead though as he was trying to slow the tempo Crimson Cape came up on his outside with Gingerboy still getting a nice run. Ungrateful Ellen crept up three wide past the 600m while Master Zephyr was niggled at on the fence. Hollywood Bound was improving in behind them and Abbasso took off wider out. Crimson Cape had trouble sticking with Himalaya Dream on the turn and Gingerboy moved quickly into second. Ungrateful Ellen was looming as she can do and Hollywood Bound had a wall in front of him. Himalaya Dream had a bit of a kick and was still in front inside the 200m though they were closing and just as Gingerboy got to him Ungrateful Ellen surged and arrived in time to beat him. Himalaya Dream clung on to third from the fast finishing Houdini The Great. Crimson Cape was checked late and there wasn’t a lot between the first eight home with Hollywood Bound a bit unlucky and Master Zephyr boxing on okay at a trip still short of his best.

Follow: maybe one more run but Master Zephyr is coming along well.

Race 7: Victoria Handicap (1400m)

1st Black Heart Bart – Brad Rawiller
2nd Charmed Harmony – Tom Sadler
3rd Eclair Choice – Dominic Tourneur

Charmed Harmony was quickly into stride and quickly found the lead with Guest Of Honour up handy and Tried And Tired working three deep looking for cover. There was none to be found. Eclair Choice was in the box seat inside Coronation Shallan and JimandoBlack Heart Bart had a three wide trail as well with Lucky Lago and Zebrinz inside him. Yesterday’s Songs was well back on the fence. Charmed Harmony was travelling well coming to the turn and he had Guest Of Honour and Tried And Tired well and truly off the bit. Eclair Choice got a run one off the fence while Jimando and Black Heart Bart came out wide to run on. Coronation Shallan was behind them a bit one paced. Charmed Harmony was taking plenty of running down and still had it inside the 200m but Black Heart Bart was the one out of the pack cutting him down and he arrived just in time to score in near course record time, set up by Charmed Harmony who was brave as always. Eclair Choice back to his best held on for third from Jimando. Not much can be said about the rest with Yesterday’s Songs making some ground along the fence.

Follow: nothing away from the first two.

Race 8: Easter Cup (2000m)

1st Leebaz – Dylan Dunn
2nd Guardini – James Winks
3rd Observational – Nick Hall

Leebaz managed to work over from an outside alley to lead easily from Good Value in the clear. Manndawi was up a bit handier this time inside Guardini, also closer, with Puccini right on their backs. Rather Heroic wasn’t settling well while Extra Zero was drifting back and Observational was second last and going a bit keenly. Leebaz opened up a good lead midrace and had four lengths on Good Value with Guardini striding up a bit closer on his back. Puccini kept following Guardini while Extra Zero and Observational made runs from the second half well before the turn. Good Value was first under pressure and Guardini looked to be cruising as he moved up to join Leebaz on the turn. Puccini was under a lot more riding and Observational kept his long run going. Guardini took over past the 200m but couldn’t put them away and Leebaz was fighting back on his inside while Observational and Puccini were still trying further out. Leebaz kept going while Guardini died on his run and that was the difference between them. Observational a much improved run into third while Puccini had his chance, as did the beaten brigade.

Follow: wouldn’t sack Guardini, he was only second-up, and Observational is close to a win.

Race 9: Noel Rundle Handicap (2000m)

1st Cool Chap – Daniel Stackhouse
2nd Artesian – Patrick Moloney
3rd Hardern – Dylan Dunn

Plenty of pressure early with Jadeer handing up to Our DelinquentSkeletons between them was over racing while Cool Chap let them go. Last Typhoonand Tuff Bickie were up there while Hardern had a three wide trail around Artesian and Miss ClooneyChabaud was behind them on the fence and Pay Up Bro settled in the three wide line. Our Delinquent was left alone in front midrace with Bullish Stock improving into second leaving Skeletons without cover around Jadeer. Some runs came from about the 600m with Hardern getting going and Pay Up Bro following him forward around the field. Our Delinquent slipped away but was under pressure on the turn. Jadeer couldn’t go with him but Cool Chap gained a split between them and pounced. Wider out Hardern and Pay Up Bro were coming with Tuff Bickie and Artesian followed Cool Chap through. Last Typhoon was struggling and got in Chabaud’s way. Cool Chap took advantage of the dream run through and broke clear, Artesian ran him to about a length but was safely held on the line. Hardern stuck his head out to claim third from Tuff Bickie and Pay Up Bro, who was a touch disappointing, with Chabaud running on late on the inside in a nice run but not sure if she’s an ATC Oaks horse.

Follow: none in particular.

Specials from the meeting: Gretna, Sure You Can, Observational.

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ROSEHILL REVIEW – SATURDAY MARCH 26 2016

Race 1 – E-GROUP SECURITY HANDICAP (1400m)

1st FEDERAL – James McDonald
2nd RELIGIFY – Taylor Marshall (a2/48kg)
3rd SABKHAT – Craig Williams

Not a great start with Agent and to a lesser extent Federal missing it from the inside, whilst Rockolicious was fastest out along with Sabkhat.  Marshall came across from wide on Religify to lead as they settled, finding the fence with Supreme Warrior tracking them in, Sabkhat next on the outside of Rockolicious, then a length to Roaring To Win, Dragon Flyer and Federal on the fence.

Marshall kept the speed on as they ran down the side, cornering first into the straight with Rockolicious and Supreme Warrior just behind, Federal still lurking on the fence, Sabkhat out wide, whilst Roaring To Win turned widest of the lot.  Religify opened up a length and a half at the top of the straight as Marshall hit the fence and went for home, but was looking vulnerable with Rockolicious and Sabkhat making ground, along with Federal right behind on the inside.  It was the latter who proved the strongest, McDonald timing his run perfectly to move off the fence and around the leader, claiming a narrow win.  Sabkhat was third whilst Sonic Swish hit the line well for fourth.

Watch: Sonic Swish hit the line well.

Race 2 – THE SCHWEPPERVESCENCE (1400m)

1st ATTENTION – Blake Shinn
2nd PRIZED ICON – Chad Schofield
3rd CRAFTY COP – Tommy Berry

Crafty Cop and Attention were best out and headed straight to the fence at the front, taking up the lead and keeping the foot down into the first turn.  All In Rhythm settled in third, caught a little deep, from Prized icon on the fence and Crown Him and Achi Baba next.  That group broke away somewhat a kept a length or so on the rest, Achi Baba keeping touch at the rear of the pack.

It didn’t last long as they bunch up into the straight, Berry keeping Crafty Cop at the front, but he had Attention stalking the entire trip with Prized Icon behind him.  Shinn moved Attention out and the two went together, Attention stretching out to take it from a fast finishing Prized Icon, with Crafty Cop hanging on the inside for third.  Obscura also finished well down the centre of the track.

Watch: Obscura – made up a lot of ground from out wide.

Race 3 – THE DAILY TELEGRAPH NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000m)

1st IT’S SOMEWHAT – James McDonald
2nd MESSENE – Tommy Berry
3rd SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD – Blake Spriggs

Messene got a great start to lead them out, with Entirely Platinum also out well from out deep.  Odds-on favourite It’s Somewhat settled behind in third place, with a couple of lengths back to Sir John Hawkwood on the outside of Zarzali, followed by Magic Hurricane, Ghost Protocol and Takewing bringing up the rear of a fairly stretched out field.

Berry had set a reasonable pace and looked to slow it down the back of the course, the field bunching up and closing gaps.  All were fairly quietly ridden until about the 600 metremark where McDonald made hi move on the hot favourite, going out three wide to round the leaders and form a line of three into the straight, with Spriggs on Sir John Hawkwood tracking him in.  It’s Somewhat went to Messene and it was great battle down the straight, Messene battling hard and staying with the favourite to just get done by a narrow margin.  Sir John Hawkwood also went with them to run third.

Watch: none.

Race 4 – TAB STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200m)

1st MALAGUERRA – Blake Shinn
2nd TARGET IN SIGHT – Hugh Bowman
3rd COOLRING – Brenton Avdulla

Fast start with Coolring and Angels Beach the best out, settling 1-2 as Shinn on the favourite Malaguerra maintained the rails run to be beautifully placed just behind them on the fence.  He had Alberto Magic on his outside, with Decision Time next caught on the outside of Bachman and Barbed, and then a gap back to Target in Sight, Turbulent Jet and Unequivocal.

Avdulla emerged from the corner first and looked to hold the inside in front, frustrating Malaguerra behind who looked for while like he wouldn’t be getting out.  Angels Beach was just outside them under heavy pressure from Alberto Magic, who in turn had Target in Sight wider again.  With that Coolring almost graciously laid out a touch which handed Malguerra the peek he needed, Shinn still holding the rail to shoot up the inside and show impressive acceleration to run away and salute by a length.  Target in Sight ran on well to take Coolring’s other flank and claim second.

Watch: Malaguerra, Target in Sight – both were ultimately well ridden and showed good finishing speed.

Race 5 – TULLOCH STAKES (2000m)

1st OLD NORTH – James McDonald
2nd TORGERSEN – Craig Williams
3rd MULTIFACETS – Hugh Bowman

A wall of horses vying for the lead from the start, Heirarchal keeping up from the inside gate with Balmain Boy just next to him, Predator and Man Of Choice also close from wider, and Sovereign Nation just behind.  That’s how they settled with Schopenhauer next, caught very deep outside, then Hattori Hanzo, Alfden, Old North snagged back on the fence, Tattosh, Multifacets and Triantan, Torgensen and Manhatten Son last of all.

Clark had soon claimed the lead on Balmain Boy up front, Man Of Choice and Heirarchal content to follow, with Schopenhauer improving but still caught outside.  Also improving behind was Alfden, tracking Shopenhauer deep as the they rounded the turn.  The favourite Old North meanwhile was ridden for luck, McDonald remaining in midfield on the fence.

Clark emerged first on Balmain Boy and went for home hard riding as the rest jostled about. Hierarchal was outside him and produced a gap by stepping out slightly, which was perfectly timed for the favourite Old North who rushed through at first invitation and claimed Balmain Boy with ease.  It was all Old North from there, with Multifacets and Torgersen running on to take the placings, the latter with particularly eye-catching speed from well back.

Watch: Old North, Torgersen.

Race 6 – VINERY STUD STAKES (2000m)

1st SINGLE GAZE – Kathy O’Hara
2nd VALLEY GIRL – Brett Prebble
3rd HAPPY HANNAH – Blake Shinn

Sailing By was very quickly out of the gates with along with Valley Girl, Prebble claiming the rail as Bowman on Self Esteem rounded them all to shoot out to an early lead.  Single Gaze went forward too wanting some speed, the pair leading the two fast starters with Believe also moving up but caught three deep.  The favourite Risque was well placed next on the fence with Lonely Orphan outside, then a gap to Ambience and Capella, and a further two lengths to Happy Hannah and Honesta as the field strung out.

Fairly orderly going until about the 600 metre mark, Bowman putting his foot down on Self Esteem to open up a gap, but the rest responded to quickly close it and the leader was under pressure as they straightened.  Valley Girl loomed up the inside, whilst Believe and Single Gaze were outside Self Esteem.  Single Gaze would prove the strongest, claiming a tough win, whislt from further back Happy Hannah hit the line very impressively, as did Capella and Honesta.

Watch: Happy Hannah – monstered the line.

Race 7 – THE BMW (2400m)

1st PREFERMENT – Hugh Bowman
2nd WHO SHOT THEBARMAN – Blake Shinn
3rd GRAND MARSHALL – Jason Collett

Fairly even start in the main event, Grand Marshall taken straight back along with Who Shot Thebarman, Preferment and Arab Dawn.  A decent battle for the lead into the first turn, Our Ivanhowe at the front but cornering fairly wide with Storm The Stars wider again, both making their way back to the fence as they settled.  Almoonqith and Montaigne were next and well placed, whilst Mongolian Khan was caught three wide outside them.  The rest settled back with only Bowman pushing Preferment up from a little deep.

Mongolian Khan was still caught deep which left Bosson with no choice but to keep pushing forward, moving up to join a beautifully placed Montaigne as Almoonqith relaxed and slowed to the middle of a tightly bunched field.  Toward the 600 metres and the big moves came – Bowman going wide around the turn on Preferment with clear intent, and Shinn on Who Shot Thebarman doing likewise just behind.  The speed was well and truly on well before they straightened, Bowman using all of his to get Preferment to the front and across to the fence, whilst Shinn stayed wide on Who Shot Thebarman.  It was all those two to the line – Montaigne benefited from a great run and stuck on, Grand Marshal finished well, but it was only ever Who Shot Thebarman with a chance of running down Preferment.  He failed just narrowly despite a withering finish, the winner simply too tough and brilliantly ridden. Grand Marshal also finished well to give Chris Waller another Group 1 trifecta.

Watch: Who Shot Thebarman, a super finish after covering a lot of ground.

Race 8 – ASCEND SALES TROPHIES EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500m)

1st ZANBAGH – Blake Shinn
2nd SUPARA – Tommy Berry
3rd AMICUS – Hugh Bowman

Good battle for the early lead with Supara getting the best of it from the favourite Solicit coming across and Badawiya well placed on the fence.  The two leaders both wanted the lead and went a little hard, Newitt on Badawiya happy to relax a bit, whilst the big mover of the rest was Telepathic, McDonald racing him up to sit third.  They had a length on Zanbagh and Skyline Blush, with a further length to Just a Blur and Amicus the next best.

Badawiya, Telepathic and Zanbagh were the keenest around the bend, with Amicus looming wider still.  Supara and Solicit in front both came under pressure, and the latter fell away and was eventually pulled up by McEvoy.  From there it was a sprint to the line with Zanbagh the toughest, claiming a tight win from Supara and Amicus, whilst further back Slightly Sweet and Lady Le Fay ran on well.

Watch: none.

Race 9 – HYLAND RACE COLOURS DONCASTER PRELUDE (1500 METRES)

1st HAVANA COOLER – James McDonald
2nd COSMIC CUBE – Blake Spriggs
3rd RUDY – Craig Williams

A few keen for the lead with Shinn on Sadler’s Lake coming from the wide barrier to claim it, and Rudy and Cosmic Cube also pushed forward.  Snippets Land was next in fourth with Magicool, Beaten Up and Moriarty also keen, and Shoreham, Index Linked and Rock Sturdy next.  Shinn was happy to keep peddling up front and opened up a length on Cosmic Cube, with Snippets Land and also Moriarty going wide around the turn to establish position, whilst Rudy was sitting back on the inside.

The straightened in a line with Sadler’s Lake being immediately pressured, Spriggs laying down the challenge on Cosmic Cube.  Rudy came off the fence behind and kept coming along with Beaten Up and Snippet’s Land, with a big run coming from wider as Havana Cooler came from well back after finding space. They hit the line hard with Havana Cooler edging out Cosmic Cube, whilst further back and wider still Hawkspur ran on very strongly.

Watch: Havana Cooler, Hawkspur – both finished very well.

Horses to follow: Malaguerra, Target in Sight, Torgersen, Happy Hannah, Who Shot Thebarman, Havana Cooler, Hawkspur.

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2016 AFL betting preview

by David on March 21, 2016

Two AFL betting experts previewed the 2016 season:

  • An overview of the AFL betting model.
  • The importance of player ratings.
  • When and how to bet.
  • A look ahead to Round 1 and the 2016 season

Daniel and Stephen predict the Pies to rise and Swans to fall amongst a number of unofficial futures bets.

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Bendigo/Rosehill Reviews

by Champion Picks on March 20, 2016

BENDIGO REVIEW – MARCH 20th 2016 SATURDAY

Race 1: All Seasons Hotel Handicap (1400m)

1st Pilote D’Essai – Nick Hall
2nd Rock Forthe Ladies – Luke Nolen
3rd Tristram’s Sun – Jake Bayliss

Temps Voleur broke the line first and headed to the lead as Here To There was ridden up to overcome a slightly tardy start. Henwood held the rails andTristram’s Sun managed to slot in with cover. Royal Rapture was in that group and Rock Forthe Ladies had to ease after being trapped deep before finding a spot three back on the outside. Temps Voleur was being pressured by Here To There before the turn and the latter held about half a length but under duress. Royal Rapture and Henwood waited while Rock Forthe Ladies got going from behind them and Pilote D’Essai latched onto his back. Temps Voleur kicked back to regain the lead as Here To There got the wobbles in the straight. There was room for Henwood between them while Royal Rapture was battling. Pilote D’Essai swept up quickly 200m out and raced away. Rock Forthe Ladies was a bit flat as the winner sprinted but he picked up nicely late while Tristram’s Sun was held up for a significant period behind horses before getting to the outside and finishing off for third. Here To There stuck on, he was a different horse not being able to control things, ahead of Royal Rapture while Temps Voleur dropped right out.

Follow: Pilote D’Essai was strong at his local debut and Tristram’s Sun is readily to win now.

Race 2: TROA Handicap (1300m)

1st Fast Cash – Brandon Stockdale
2nd Thinking Of You – Luke Nolen
3rd Fidel Astro – Nick Hall

Azeema somewhat surprisingly eased right out to last. Florelle landed in front with King’s Command between her and Fidel Astro and Release The Speedwider out. Tips And Beers sat behind that quartet and Fast Cash had plenty of cover. Stylish Miss and Bee Jay Zed were next and Thinking Of You settled well back. Florelle was basically uncontested in front as Fidel Astro sat up over a length away, Tips And Beers improved on the fence and Release The Speed stayed off the track. King’s Command drifted back next. Fast Cash peeled out coming to the turn and Thinking Of You followed it through. Azeema was widest on straightening. Fidel Astro took over at the 200m with King’s Command in pursuit and Tips And Beers just battling. Wider out Fast Cash and Thinking Of You were winding up and they quickly ran clear with Fast Cash always about a neck clear and he held that to the line. Fidel Astro kept going for third just ahead of the fast finishing Master Sommelier, who can do that from time to time in his races. King’s Command was a bit one paced while Azeema finished at the back.  Might pay to forgive her a bit, ridden very negatively and she’s better than that.

Follow: none, these are well exposed.

Race 3: Mittys Sprint (1000m)

1st Manhattan Blues – Nick Hall
2nd Mystic Moon – Linda Meech
3rd The Big Dance – Ben Thompson

The Big Dance gathered speed to drive through and lead Billabong Babe and Mystic Moon ducked in behind the pace.  Scandimania settled fourth and the last trio were Ragazzo Del Corsa around Magna Rossa and Manhattan Blues. The Big Dance wasn’t waiting for anyone and skipped away a couple clear on the turn, getting the chasers off the bit. Scandimania took the inside run and Billabong Babe tried to come on outside but the leader kept going. The race changed complexion quickly in the last game 100m as The Big Dance started to weaken. Manhattan Blues burst through to grab The Big Dance and held off Mystic Moon who closed quickly wider out with Magna Rossa who took forever to wind up. Well timed ride on Manhattan Blues to post a first-up win. Blanket finish behind him. Ragazzo Del Corsa ran last ridden against his best performances which are up on the pace.

Follow: none in particular.

Race 4: VOBIS Gold Rush (1000m)

1st If Not Now When – Michael Dee
2nd Summer Glen – Linda Meech
3rd Valliano – Mark Zahra

Summer Glen tried to burn them off early on but didn’t seem keen to cross to the fence and If Not Now WhenCreativity and Princess Of Queens booted up. Valliano and Tris settled a couple of lengths back and Launched picked up ground along the rails. Coming to the turn If Not Now When had pulled out of the battle up front leaving Summer Glen three wide around Creativity and Princess Of Queens, Valliano pulled deep while Tris stayed towards the inside looking for runs. Creativity couldn’t get past Princess Of Queens and at the 200m Summer Glen ran past that pair. Launched was hampered on the fence and If Not Now When started her run and loomed strongly with Valliano. If Not Now When finished off by the far the better after a nice run and was far too good in a nice debut. Summer Glen boxed on very well to hold second and Valliano had his chance but kept coming into a place just ahead of Tris. Creativity disappointed after having every hope and not a bad run from Launched after getting cut out a couple of times. Nothing else from the back made an impact.

Follow: there’s definitely a win in Summer Glen.

Race 5: Better Loosen up Trophy (2400m)

1st Dandy Gent – Dale Smith
2nd Lucky Lucky Lucky – Stephen Baster
3rd Assign – Nick Hall

Took a while to sort them out and Wexford Town worked across to the lead out of the straight from Lucky Lucky Lucky who took the fence behind him.Black Jag was up handy as usual and Our Bazaar strode up three wide. Assign stayed on the back of that group around Dandy Gent. In the middle stages Wexford Town and Black Jag opened up a gap of some five lengths and Ancient King made a move to slot into third ahead of Lucky Lucky Lucky and Our Bazaar. Black Jag started to serve it up to Wexford Town nearing the turn and Ancient King moved up three deep. Our Bazaar and Assign were hard at it next and Lucky Lucky Lucky stayed on the inside around the turn. Wexford Town was the first horse beaten and dropped right out. Ancient King hit the lead at the 400m as Black Jag also struggled. Assign was chiming in and Lucky Lucky Lucky gained a split to chime in. Wider out Dandy Gent had worked into the clear and was winding up. Assign finally got to them inside the 100m but Dandy Gent was there to pounce and he finished too well late to score. Lucky Lucky Lucky poked through on the fence to snatch second from Assign while Waxing made up a heap of ground late to be right behind them.

Follow: none, pretty standard staying race.

Race 6: Gold Bracelet (1400m)

1st Written – Katelyn Mallyon
2nd Atlantis Dream – Brad Rawiller
3rd Amarela – Patrick Moloney

Distant Dreams was clearly best out but didn’t want to be there and Written ran to the lead. Samartested moved to second in the clear while Nadeem Lasswas caught wide around Distant Dreams and Our HarmonyNoela’s Choice and Atlantis Dream were next enjoying good runs from Iteration, recovering after being slowly out. Hijack Hussy settled among the last few. Written scooted away before the turn and stayed well off the fence. Samartested was hard ridden trying to chase her down, Our Harmony stayed hard up against the fence. Written was there to be run down at the 100m and they were coming but she’d opened up too big a lead and held them comfortably. Atlantis Dream ground away to get up for second with Amarela weaving her way through near the inside to snatch a place off Samartested while Hijack Hussy left her run all too late but she made good leeway in the straight. Noela’s Choice and Nadeem Lass were close up but never a winning chance.

Follow: Atlantis Dream was very good first-up and worth sticking with Hijack Hussy.

Race 7: Golden Mile (1600m)

1st Nevis – Katelyn Mallyon
2nd Big Memory – Mark Zahra
3rd Survived – Damien Thornton

Big Memory jumped very well from the outside and went forward with Nevis kicking up underneath to hold the lead. Genuine Lad was up on the outside ofSurvived and the jumper Westsouthwest on the inside. They were well off the rail. General Groove settled in the clear about midfield with Abidewithmeand Velox next. The field strung right out behind Nevis who rolled along a few lengths clear of Big Memory and a similar ago to Genuine Lad and Survived. General Groove had no excuses and he was joined by Abidewithme and Velox trying to improve. Nevis was still well clear at the 200m as the rider started to go for him. Big Memory was the only one within striking range and started to close. Survived was boxing on and General Groove was closer to the inside and going up and down in the one spot. Abidewithme was running on without threatening and Velox just got the better of her late for fourth. The rest of the field were in another race as Nevis held off Big Memory for a bold all the way win. You can sack General Groove despite pulling up with some mucous that may have affected him.

Follow: Big Memory looks just about ready to win.

Race 8: Bendigo Guineas (1400m)

1st Silent Sedition – Nick Hall
2nd Amadeus – Brad Rawiller
3rd Odyssey Moon – Mark Zahra

Call Me Curtis took up the running from his wide gate, again well off the fence, and Odyssey MoonSilent Sedition and Amadeus let him go. Purrpussfulwas up there with the leading bunch and midfield were Red Alto inside Dawn Of Hope and Palace Tycoon. Call Me Curtis was unchallenged in the lead but was under pressure early in the straight. Odyssey Moon looked to be all set to pounce but he had a bit of a think while Amadeus took a run between them and Silent Sedition started to let down wider out. Invincible Knight made a dash right up on the fence but Silent Sedition swept on by and kicked away for an impressive win. Amadeus fought on well for second and Odyssey Moon got going again after the winner gave him windburn. Patchy effort from him after having a good run. Invincible Knight ran well first-up in the worst part of the track. Of the others Tivaci was never in the call and only worked home without ever being in the race.

Follow: stick with Silent Sedition.

Race 9: Bendigo Trophy (1100m)

1st Society Man – Dylan Dunn
2nd Duibio – Nick Hall
3rd Squeaky Squirrel – Patrick Moloney

Runsati showed his usual speed to head off Society Man with Squeaky Squirrel on his outside and Windjammer right behind them. A bunch next includingBradmanArmada and Ventic with Sardaaj wider out. Stratcombe was even further out while Running Bull was back on the fence. Right out in the middle of the track Runsati led to the turn but Society Man cut the corner a bit and got up on the inside. Running Bull also came through on the inside section with Armada and Duibio also in that vicinity. Wide out on the track Squeaky Squirrel and Illustrious Lad were running on but Society man was going well and he drew away late to hold Duibio comfortably. They queued up for third with Squeaky Squirrel just nailing Runsati for third and close up were Illustrious Lad on the outside and Running Bull close in with Armada on their backs. Sardaaj proved disappointing in the run home though you had to be on the pace generally.

Follow: Running Bull’s effort was solid in the worst part of the track. Be wary of the form overall here, the fence was off and those on the pace did very well.

Specials from the meeting: Tristram’s Sun, Atlantic Dream, Big Memory, Running Bull.

—–

ROSEHILL REVIEW – SATURDAY MARCH 12 2016

Race 1 – NATHAN’S FAMOUS EPONA STAKES (1900m)

1st VERGARA – James McDonald
2nd HEAVENS ABOVE – Tye Angland
3rd SWEET FIRE – Tommy Berry

Reasonable line out with late substitute McDonald flying the start on Vergara. All Cerise was also out well with Skyline Blush and Alegria, Gust of Wind and Sweet Fire next, followed by Piamimi, Blendwell, the favourite Heavens Above who had been drifted well back, Mary Lou and Adorabeel.

Vergara led them with All Cerise reasonably well held by Dunn who was happy to sit second. Mary Lou looked to improve from the rear and stepped out into the side of the course, whilst the favourite continued to be shuffled back, second last now. Mary Lou emerged wider still which allowed Dunn out on Heavens Above as they entered the straight, Vergara still leading with McDonald starting to up the ante. He held them as Heavens Above started to properly wind up down the outside, with the closer pursuers in Sweet Fire and Alegria going past All Cerise easily. Piamimi – blocked for a run before finding the rail – and Blendwell also ran on well, but it was Heavens Above with the only realistic chance of running down Vergara. As usual McDonald had his timing spot-on as he held the favourite off to claim a narrow win.

Watch: Vergara, Heavens Above.

Race 2 – IRRESISTIBLE POOLS & SPAS N E MANION CUP (2400m)

1st LIBRAN – Brenton Avdulla
2nd CAFÉ SOCIETY – Tommy Berry
3rd GALLANTE – James McDonald

Slow start, Beyond Thankful bounding out first but immediately pulled up by Bowman who wasn’t interested in leading. Nor was anybody else wanting to take up the running, the battle of patience lasting until the first turn when McDonald on Gallante, having come from his wide gate, pulled to the front just in front of Café Society on the rails. The rest formed an orderly queue – Libran, Do You Remember, Beyond Thankful well covered with Auvrey on his outside, and Another Cocktail last of all.

Across the back Beyond Thankful was perhaps over-racing just slightly, Bowman letting him slide past Do You Remember and move up toward Libran, which Avdulla had stepped off the rail, Bowman pushing through to third. Everybody else still sitting fairly quietly as they ran down the side of the course, until Angland on Auvrey, having shifted back to last, came out wide and put his foot down at the 600m to make his move. As he moved up to midfield Avdulla stepped Libran out in front of him and had the clear air, Auvrey laying in and losing momentum. From there it was all Libran, moving up and past the leaders to take a comfortable win. Another Cocktail ran on reasonably for fourth.

Watch: Libran – did it fairly easily.

Race 3 – THE SEBRING (1200m)

1st SOUTHERN LEGEND – Tim Clark
2nd EGYPTIAN SYMBOL – Brenton Avdulla
3rd DENMAGIC – Christian Reith

Stunningly straight line out at the 1200, with plenty wanting the front and a competitive battle to get it. They sorted themselves out and it was Bowman on Flippant who took the lead eventually, then slowed the speed. He had Takedown just behind him, Regatta Rebel, then Wolf Cry and Southern Legend with Ottoman caught three wide. Puritan was on the fence in midfield followed by Serene Majesty, Counter Attack caught deep and Denmagic just behind.

They hit the straight and fanned out, a wall of horses jostling for position with Wolf Cry passing the leader and Egyptian Symbol giving chase in the inside. On Wolf Cry’s other flank was Tim Clark on Southern Legend making ground quickly, with Ottoman and Counter Attack on his outside. It was all Southern Legend, Clark booting it home, with Denmagic and Counter Attack hitting the line very well.

Watch: none

Race 4 – RANVET STAKES (2000m)

1st THE UNITED STATES – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd HAURAKI – James McDonald
3rd CRITERION – Michael Walker

The first Group 1 of the day it was to Dibayani jumping out first from the inside, with Mongolian Khan also out well and sitting on his outside, before Bohemian Lily came rushing past them both to take up the lead. Kool Kompany moved up on the outside to take Dibayani and sit second outside the leader, then Storm The Stars and Mongolian Khan well placed on the inside. There was a further gap back to Criteron and Hauraki, and then a similar gap again to Weary and The United States bringing up the rear.

Kool Kompany kept the speed on to briefly challenge Bohemian Lily for the lead before they settled down with a gap to Dibayani and Mongolian Khan. Storm The Stars was on the outside with Bowman looking to improve position down the side of the course. As they came to straighten it was Criterion who went widest to find space, with Weary behind him and The United States also at the rear but caught inside. They went for home in a line, quickly claiming Kool Kompany with the United States finding its way through the mob and Dabayani also looking to challenge strongly, along with Hauraki and Criterion down the outside. It was The United States and Hauraki who emerged strongest, Hauraki really putting it to The United States, who held him off in a very tough performance.

Watch: The United States, Hauraki – the runner up wouldn’t have lost many friends.

Race 5 – CHINA HORSE CLUB GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m)

1st WINX – Hugh Bowman
2nd KERMADEC – Zac Purton
3rd PRESS STATEMENT – James McDonald

Turn Me Loose was out best and came across to take the lead from Press Statement, First Seal settling in next and then a group of three in Tinto, Hucklebuck and Winx, the champion caught three wide. There was then a gap back to Happy Clapper and Kermadec bringing up the rear.

Bowman responded by moving Winx up to third outside Press Statement, and one out and one back from First Seal. Nobody yet challenged Turn Me Loose for the lead, Bosson pushing him along at a comfortable speed. It went up a notch round the final turn, the leader shifting out slightly before being swamped – Kermadec moving up on the rail, Press Statement next, First Seal outside and Winx looming ominously wider again. First Seal dropped off leaving a race in three, with no surprises who had the most – Winx put them to bed in a matter of strides, solid runs from super horses in Kermadec and Press Statement not even threatening as the champion crossed the line easing up – Chris Waller securing a Group 1 trifecta..

Watch: Winx, Kermadec – no words required regarding the winner, but Kermadec certainly wasn’t disgraced.

Race 6 – SKY RACING ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000m)

1st TARZINO – Craig Newitt
2nd MONTAIGNE – Blake Shinn
3rd JAMEKA – Damien Oliver

Real battle for the lead early here with plenty pushed forward, Boss coming across on I’m Belucci to claim it from Jameka, also keenly ridden. River Wild settled into third from the well placed favourite Tarzino, Le Romain and Gold Ambition – caught fairly deep – with Montaigne the best of the rest.

Boss switched the pace right off down the back of the course and the rest followed suit, grabbing a breather and remaining in line. That group then broke away, with Etymology and Vanbrugh tacking onto the back, and opened up a few lengths on the rest of the field. Jameka took up the lead as they straightened with I’m Belucci stopping dead, Tarzino also building strongly and River Wild, Le Romain, Etymology and Montaigne giving chase. It was Tarzino the strongest, pulling away to claim it comfortably from Montaigne and Jameka, Vanbrugh running on well for fourth.

Watch: Tarzino, Vanbrugh.

Race 7 – LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200m)

1st CAPITALIST – Blake Shinn
2nd YANKEE ROSE – Zac Purton
3rd FLYING ARTIE – Damien Oliver

To the feature and favourite and Blue Diamond winner Extreme Choice was the story of the start, well and truly missing it to trail the field and end his race before it’d started. Defcon was also snagged back with him, whilst up the front rank longshot Sweet Sherry led them out, with Astern on his flank, Scarlett Rain deeper still and Flying Artie well placed back on the rail. Berry shifted Scarlett Rain back a touch to find some cover as they moved around the turn, Sweet Sherry still leading with Astern stalking and Flying Artie still getting a favourable run.

The movers as they straightened were Capitalist and Honesty Prevails, the former looking for a run just behind the leaders and eventually laying out slightly to find it. From there Shinn pushed the button and went for home, claiming a hard ridden Sweet Sherry and leaving him in his wake. Meanwhile Telperion had found the fence inside Flying Artie, the pair running on well along with Honesty Prevails. Yankee Rose flew down the outside in an eye-catching run for second, with Star Turn also finishing well.

Watch: Capitalist, Yankee Rose, Star Turn.

Race 8 – BANJO GALAXY (1100m)

1st GRIANTE – Craig Williams
2nd SHIRAZ – Brett Prebble
3rd DOTHRAKI – Blake Shinn

Clark on Ball Of Muscle was keenest for the lead, coming across to take it from Lord Of The Sky, Dothraki, Bounding, Griante on the fence from Fell Swoop, Terravista back on the inside and Boss Lane and Lumosty tracking widest.

As they straightened Dothraki stepped out and handed Lord Of The Sky a decent hip-and-shoulder, giving chase to the leader as Griante moved up and Bounding came down the outside. Williams asked Griante for something and got a great response, speeding past the leaders to take the win from a group of hard finishers in Shiraz, Fell Swoop and Bounding.

Watch: Shiraz – great finish down the outside from a long way back.

Race 9 – TAB BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200m)

1st SULTRY FEELING – Blake Shinn
2nd LUCKY CAN BE – Sam Clipperton
3rd PERIGNON – Kerrin McEvoy

Bring Me The Maid and Look To The Stars both missed the start considerably, whilst Flashing Speed came across to take up the lead from Two Blue and Onemorezeta. Moor quickly slowed the speed on the leader with Onemorezeta caught wide, Perignon nicely placed behind on the rail from Vezalay and the favourite Sultry Feeling just a little deep.

They straightened and bunched right up, Perignon getting notably locked in on the rail and unable to get a run, with Lucky Can Be also back right on his hammer. Two Blue took over the lead but it was only momentarily, as Sultry Feeling was nicely placed in space with plenty to give. She sped away as they finally sorted themselves out on the rail, Lucky Can Be and Perignon released and having a late dive at the post, and Cradle Me finishing hard down the outside

Watch: Lucky Can Be, Cradle Me – both hitting the line well.

Race 10 – NEWCASTLE NEWMARKET HANDICAP (1350m)

1st ARTISTRY – Thomas Huet
2nd NANCY – Tommy Berry
3rd AMOVATIO – Hugh Bowman

Good start in the last with the widest runners in River Lad and Bull Point in no rush to get across, as they battled for the lead and eventually took it before finding the fence. Aomen was one back on the rail with Ecuador just outside him, Lunar Rise next and then Sadler’s Lake, Nancy and Artistry in a row with the later caught three deep.

Huet on Artistry was the mover into the side of the course, looking to improve position and moving up on the outside of Lunar Rise, whilst Berry on Nancy was instead content to lay back. At the front there was little change until they straightened, fanning right out for a sprint to the post. River Lad battled on but was claimed, Artistry down the outside looking strongest despite the extra ground covered. Nancy was blocked for a run momentarily before being released, the two running away with only Amovatio from well back showing much in the final stages

Watch: The winner was impressive given his wide run, whilst Amovatio also finished well.

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