Weekend Racing Reviews – July 25th

by Admin on July 27, 2015

Caulfield Review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: Noel Elizabeth Barter (1000m)

1st Just For Starters – Craig Newitt
2nd Corsica Lad – Damien Oliver
3rd Sunday Escape – Craig Williams

Copernicus, a noted on-pacer, blew the start and settled a clear last. Glowstick flew out from a wide gate and tried to cross but Sunday Escape and Cobblestones kicked up to hold it out. Just For Starters railed up behind them into the box seat with Corsica Lad handy to them. Sunday Escape seemed to travel okay to the turn with Cobblestones on his outside, Glowstick dropped off and Corsica Lad peeled out to run on. Further out Jersey Whistler tried to chime in as well. Sunday Escape kicked a couple clear near the 200m and allowed Just For Starters to come off his back. He was starting to paddle by the 100m and just as it looked like Corsica Lad was about to sweep past, Just For Starters knuckled down and finished his race off just a little better. Sunday Escape managed to hold on for third ahead of Jersey Whistler and not far from them was a nice return by Audino running on. Sunday Escape seemed to have his chance and isn’t quite able to finish off when he leads.

Follow: Corsica Lad will be fitter and keep an eye on Audino. (Click to continue reading…)

0 comments

Exclusive CrownBet Offer

by Admin on July 24, 2015

HUGE FIRST DEPOSIT OFFERMake your First Deposit of up to $1,000* in to your CrownBet account and receive up to $1,000* in Bonus Bets. This first deposit offer is exclusive to Champion Picks and is only available to the first 50 customers!The Bonus Bets can be used on any racing or sporting event and with the AFL/NRL finals coming up and the Spring Racing carnival just around the corner be sure to secure this huge Bonus Bet offer!

 

Not a CrownBet member?

 

If you have any queries, feel free to send an email or please contact our Customer Service team on 13 CROWNBET (13 27696 238).

Good luck,

The CrownBet Team

Follow us on Facebook Twitter
You must be 18+ | Gamble Responsibly*Bonus Bets are subject to Bonus Bet terms & conditions. Please allow up to 24 hours for your Bonus Bets to appear in your account. This promotion is not open to residents of VIC, NSW, SA and WA.This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual addressed to receive this email.If you have received this email in error, please notify CrownBet.

0 comments

Ubet’s Gerard Daffy is back on the podcast to talk about footy, cricket and golf betting in 2015.

We had a slight hiccup with the audio so had to go to the back-up. It should be clear enough for most people, but there is always the transcript if you prefer.

Punting Insights:

  • The 2015 AFL and NRL seasons so far from a betting perspective
  • A long-term method he continues to use
  • The betting interest of The Ashes so far
  • Golf betting including the British Open
  • The traits of most successful punters

Today’s Guest:
Gerard Daffy – Ubet

>> Click here to read the transcript

Dave Duffield: Has the AFL, NRL turnover jumped this year for Ubet?

Gerard Daffy: AFL turnover just continues to grow every year. What was pretty evident to us this year, and you might not have seen too much of this in the press because they don’t actually have access to the betting figures, but I think that the betting interest is always the best barometer of how popular an event or a sport is.
Those Thursday night games, I know we only had a handful of them but the betting on those went through the roof. In the past we’ve had some Monday night AFL games or Sunday night, they just didn’t work. It’s quite interesting the difference in the two codes. Thursday night AFL in the weeks that this was almost the biggest betting game of the week and every week in the NRL the Monday night games are easily the biggest as well. There’s a market there for them and I think going forward the day is probably not too far away where we will AFL game every Thursday night.

Dave Duffield: Now last time we had you on the show you mentioned that you like to price up the following weeks round before the coming week is played, because there can be a real over reaction to the most recent game. You don’t use that line just solely, you want to factor in what actually happens in that game but is that something that you’re still doing that you find valuable?

Gerard Daffy: Too right. I think there’s too much emphasis on what we saw last weekend and this applies to any code. When you think about it if every team or every competitor ran exactly the same way that they did last weekend there would be no sport. Every favourite would probably win so I always want to have a crack at it before the weekend. Quite clearly you can lose players to injury long term or perhaps somebody goes off in the early part of the game and you factor that in as well but historically others react to what they saw last week. I guess we see that also each week in premiership betting. Invariably the team that wins the match on the weekend short is up in the premiership betting and those are beaten go out. The punters normally back the teams that are winning whereas from my point of view I see a lot of people who bet professionally on these long term things. Those that meet with most success tend to back sides who are coming off a loss.
They get the inflated quote and then hopefully they come good. We’ve got Hawthorn now a red-hot favourite to win the flag after round one. There was question marks over whether anybody else can win and they hit a bit of a hurdle and now they’re back in form flogging two of the three main competitors the last two weeks but $2 to win the flag. Would you want to take that? Not for me.
They might win it but at the end of the day, come September and that first week in October when we do play the final series we still have to win three sudden death matches and even on all-up basis how sure can you be in those?

Dave Duffield: Which team will Ubet be cheering on then at this stage anyway in terms of the futures for the AFL?

Gerard Daffy: Right at this point in time it’s West Coast. It’s been interesting looking at the transition of West Coast from where they were say 8 or 10 years ago to where they are now. They’ve been falling under the radar this season. It’s only in the last 2 or 3 weeks that people have sat up and started to take notice. They’re now attracting a lot of support each time they play but they haven’t really been backed to win the flag. They’re in to $5.50 equal favourites now. That’s not by weight of money that’s just where we think they’ll position themselves on the ladder. They’re the team to beat and what will be intriguing is when those 2 sides meet in Perth again, to see what happens there.
I think West Coast would in my book would probably be favourites if it were on this week.

Dave Duffield: That’s interesting because all the AFL members are on West Coast at $11 or $12 for the premiership.

Gerard Daffy: They do look one of the teams to beat so if I was them I would hang on, I wouldn’t save. I would just wait.

Dave Duffield: What about NRL? What’s the latest there?

Gerard Daffy: Obviously it’s a lot more open than what the AFL is and I suppose it makes sense because it just takes one injury in an NRL side and you can be in a lot of trouble. As an example if Thurston was to get a long term injury the Cowboys, well they’d be out the game.
Currently the Roosters are $3.75, Brisbane at $4, the Cowboys at $4.50. They’ve been the 3 money sides for the past 3 or 4 months. The good thing in favour of the 2 Queensland playing sides if you favour them, they’ve got through the State of Origin series pretty much unscathed. They’ve got no long term injuries but more importantly they were able to win games. I think between them they only lost 2 games through the whole Origin series. They’re on track to both grab good positions in the ladder in that top 4 that’s most important. Now we’ve got the Bulldogs at $7.50 behind them but the Bulldogs again have just decided their inconsistency has warded punters off over the past 2 or 3 seasons they’ve tended not to play two games alike in a row, they’re 7.50 but only by virtue of the fact that somebody has to be in the market behind them.
Souths have got some question marks over them. They’re $8, there’s a lot of activity there. Then we start to get to those that might make the 8 or should make the 8 or on the cusp of making the 8 and Melbourne Storm the surest of those at $19. Can they do it without Billy Slater? Serious doubts about that.
We’ve got New Zealand Warriors at $26. They’re probably the biggest enigma in any sporting code in the country. Their best is pretty good but their worst which is more than 50% of the time is atrocious. Then we’ve got the stragglers so it’s hard to say. I think on given day those top 3 sides could beat each other and they’ll continue to dominate the market as we lead into September.

Dave Duffield: How do Ubet successful punters whether it’s NRL or AFL? Obviously different corporates have different ways of treating them and some chop them off pretty quickly. Are you more likely to use that market intelligence and shade your line slightly or how do you approach it?

Gerard Daffy: I think you’d be insane not to. My personal view point is, and I’ve been around for a long time, I can’t see any point at all in banning people or closing their accounts because in this day and age within 4 or 5 hours they come back as 4 or 5 other people. Their wife, their neighbour, their son, their mate down the road and those people that are employed to keep track on all of these, well they have 4 or 5 headaches.
I think these people have been treated for so long that they’ve just become accustomed to having their accounts closed and when they do find a bookie that let’s them on for a reasonable amount, and I’d like to think that we’re pretty fair in that regard. We don’t close people’s accounts down unless there’s some other activity as apart to having a bet.
I know that our guys, and I always push this envelope but if you’ve got somebody that you think is a little bit cleverer than you on a particular sport or a particular code and at the end of the day if somebody who concentrates on one code has a distinct advantage over the bookmaker or a group of people who are trying to monitor 20 or 30 codes and you have 5000 or 6000 events around the world each week … So we’re not silly enough to think that we know it all but if you identify somebody that you think has got an edge, take his bet and then make the appropriate changes after that. I think down through the ages that’s a more successful plan of attack than just chopping people off at the knees.

Dave Duffield: Switching to golf then, the British Open’s not long run and won. How is that from a betting perspective place from the average punter but also from the smarter guys?

Gerard Daffy: It’s massive business. The two most popular majors of the year are the Masters in the US and the British Open market. The scenery of both of those venues makes it more attractive. In the same way that people tend to bet on the Tour De France because of the wonderful scenery and the coverage on TV. There’s other cycling events that Ubet cover on a weekly basis you might get a handful of bets but when it comes to the tour it’s different.
The British Open is exactly the same. I guess through the evolution of time golf betting really went to another level. Firstly when it was on TV every week, 15 years ago we used to only get the Majors. Now 3 or 4 events from around the world every week so the coverage is good. We get to know who plays, there’s so much information on them but more importantly it was Tiger Woods. Tiger Woods attracted people to betting on golf for 2 reasons. He was so popular and so good that people were prepared to back him every week or every time he played irrespective of the price because you always got a good run from your money. Then you had those that joined in the betting on golf who were more than happy to bet against him on that probability that hey the guys $3, he can’t win 2 out 3 so we’ll bet against him. It sort of escalated golf betting to where it is now.
The other thing that obviously worked in favour of the levels of interest in golfers from a betting perspective is the success of the Australians. They’re always thereabouts and leading into the British Open we had Adam Scott and Jason Day sort of 4th and 5th favourites respectively and really popular. Then of course those 2 along with Leishman and a couple of others were in contention all the way through so the betting when it was updated each day, because we had 2 or 3 Aussies up near the top of the leader board created a lot more interest.
It’s already pretty big business and I can’t see it going away any time soon.

Dave Duffield: So for in-play betting, the thing we still dream of, if it was available for golf and you could bet online in play do you think the volume would be 5 times what it is now? What figure would you put on it?

Gerard Daffy: You’re quite right about the levels of interest. Golf is a little bit more tricky because of course we all see the one set of vision. There’s a lot going on that you don’t see and the interest normally centers around who are on TV and predominantly they’re the favourite players or those who are up near the lead. We bet all the way through the British Open. I think people get enthralled watching it rather than betting. They tend to wait until the round is over and then launch but it’s difficult to keep up with.
Being live on football is a different kettle of fish because we’re seeing a lot more of it that people don’t bet before a game starts and then see how it’s going. See whether their team’s getting the rub of the green off the ref or the umpire or there might be a wind going one way, how they’re handling that. They actually like to sit down and see how it’s going and make their own judgement on how the game’s progressing and then bet then.
It’s intriguing looking at some of the numbers from the overseas book makers, particularly those in UK where they now say that anywhere between 70 and 90% of their business is all in play. Obviously they’ve got soccer and tennis has got a higher profile over there from a betting perspective but massive amounts of money bet in play now. As we know people are actually making a living out of it by arbing in between different outlets or perhaps having a bet and then at the first available opportunity to get out of it so they can lock in a profit both ways.
We’re actually bringing in a new breed of punters.

Dave Duffield: Yeah if only we could do that in Australia but it’s a battle for another day.

Gerard Daffy: I don’t know whether we ever will.

Dave Duffield: Right.

Gerard Daffy: I just don’t know. These elections now are on a knife edge. Every time there’s an election held whether it be state or federal they’re on a knife edge. Nobody knows who is going to win them up until probably the day afterwards. I just don’t know whether our governments have got the appetite to appeal legislation that’s already in just to appease a small sector of the community. At the end of the day people who bet live, they don’t make up massive amounts of the population. I know we’re all affected by it and we’d all like to see it but I just don’t know whether it’s going to happen.

Dave Duffield: Bad news, I’m sorry to hear that. What about cricket? Speaking of in-play, it’s another game that lends itself in to in-play betting but with a little bit hamstrung. How’s the Ashes been from betting volume? Also was there that bias that you mentioned where everyone over reacted to that First Test or did people actually expect the Aussies to bounce back?

Gerard Daffy: Well cricket betting is always good. The Ashes is obviously terrific and when we went over there everybody thought it was going to be a walk in the park and we’d win the first test and we’d go on to win 5 nil. That’s where all the money went. When we put the Ashes series up about 12 months ago, Australia were $1.80 to win the series. They got into $1.18 before the first test. Probably the best thing that happened as far as we were concerned was that Australia didn’t win the first test because that would have stymied any interest in subsequent tests. No doubt that the interest levels went up in the second test on the back of that win the first test because then we could get money from both sides whereas up until the first test it was all one way action from Australia. The Ashes betting is fantastic. We’ve got a lot more bet types during the games now and people really warm for those.
One of the more popular is the most runs market that are open all the way through. Players come in and come out or look like they’re on a roll and people really like to follow those. Unfortunately on this side of the world due to the agreements put in place with some of the controlling bodies now, a lot of the bet types, the more popular bet types have been stripped out as per the agreement that the operators had to sign off with the governing bodies. Cricket is one of those. You can’t back a player over or under say 30 runs or 50 runs. You can only back him to make over 50 runs.
That puts us at a distinct disadvantage because if you’re a cricket bookmaker outside of Australia you can basically bet on whatever you want. When you consider that a lot of these bet types originated, I know in the old days when I was at Centrebet, a lot of the options that are around now, we instigated those because there was no other bookies to do them. We started them all and unfortunately some of those have been taken away by integrity departments of these codes thinking that they can be corrupted or can be manipulated. We don’t have any evidence of that in Australia on cricket.
Anything’s that ever happened on cricket betting in regards to rorts or people that have been caught trying to defraud or cheat the system have all been as a result of what goes on in the illegal market. We’ve been penalised as a result of that yet the illegal market still flourishes.

Dave Duffield: Right. What a shame. Just to wrap it up then what advice would you give people listening to this who are horse racing and sports punters? Just in terms of the people you’ve seen succeed long term.

Gerard Daffy: Yeah actually I get asked this question a lot and I’ve dealt with a lot of people down through the years and this applies globally because I’ve dealt with them all. The people that win punting on a really ongoing basis, are those who have got a lot of patience and tend to specialize on one or two sports. More importantly they bet against the obvious happening.
The smart punters that win on Aussie rules and rugby league tend to back home sides that are outsiders particularly with the start. Very, very rarely do you see them back favourites and particularly to cover the line. When you think about if you back a favourite at the minus line, two things have got to happen. Firstly the favourite’s got to win and secondly it’s got to cover the line whereas if you back an outsider you’ve only got one thing to have happen and if they win well that’s an added bonus as well. I’ve got a lot of data here on favourites and covering the line in both of those codes and it’s probably even more prevalent in Super Rugby.
The last 3 years of Super Rugby the favourites covering the line has been running at about 40%. That’s horrific so if you can hang on until the next rugby season just back the pluses. Don’t worry about the fall, anything at all, back the plus. I think you’ll come out well ahead.

Dave Duffield: You don’t think the market will correct for that?

Gerard Daffy: It hasn’t to date. A lot of emphasis is put on home sides in Super Rugby competitions and it’s pretty much the same as what we’ve seen in these codes in Australia now. People forget that these are highly professionalised sports. These guys are used to travelling around, they travel every second week. I know there are some grounds where historically teams do battle to win and I guess you do get an inflated promise for that. We’ve heard of teams that haven’t won somewhere for 18 years and I guess you’ve got to look at that but overall if you’re on the outsiders in any of those codes you must come out in front.

Dave Duffield: Interesting as always. Appreciate your time Gerry, thanks very much.

Get More Betting 360

Make sure you don’t miss our punting tips to come! Subscribe on:

or you can directly download this episode by right-clicking, Save As Here.

What Do You Think of the Show?

0 comments

Weekend Racing Reviews – July 18th

by Admin on July 20, 2015

Flemington Review from Ray Hickson

Race 1: Flemington Family (1200m)

1st Jalan Jalan – Damien Oliver
2nd Gold Symphony – Chad Schofield
3rd Portman – Craig Williams

Closest to the inside, Smooth Edge had the lead while Vicious and Star Planet were about five horses further out. Just inside that pairDemonstrate travelled okay and Jalan Jalan sat behind him. Gold Symphony tracked Star Planet and outside him was Free Speechand Abu Dhabi. Demonstrate and Vicious claimed the leader inside the 400m but neither had a sprint and Star Planet joined in with them. Jalan Jalan ducked back to the inside and started to finish off strongly. Soon after he raced past the leading trio and dashed away. Gold Symphony was running on nicely and Portman was closing in behind him. Jalan Jalan stretched out like a nice horse and held a dominant margin on the line. Nice run from Gold Symphony and even nicer debut effort by Portman, who settled last and kept coming. Every chance Demonstrate and Vicious and they disappointed.
Follow: the winner’s smart, Portman has plenty of upside. (Click to continue reading…)

0 comments

Betting 360 Ep 086 – AFL betting update

by David on July 16, 2015

The Betting 360 podcast is back in action and our special guest this week is Stephen from our AFL betting model.

We’re 14 rounds into the season so it’s a good time to discuss what has happened so far and of course what we have to look forward to over the next 3 months.

Punting Insights:

  • Why they believe the market is wrong on West Coast, Fremantle and Sydney
  • How West Coast’s efficiency has helped them become this season’s surprise packet
  • Why player ratings have been incorporated into the AFL model
  • How closing line value is used to measure the likelihood of long-term success
  • Some key things to consider when betting on the total points scored market

Today’s Guest:
Stephen from our AFL tips package.

>> Click here to read the transcript

Dave: How have you found the AFL season so far?

Stephen: It’s been a season of ups and downs I guess in terms of looking at performance for the year in terms of betting results. It’s definitely been an exciting one in which we’ve really seen a few teams coming to the fore that I guess we didn’t expect at the start of the year, namely West Coast in particular, and obviously Hawthorn, the juggernauts of the competition who have performed strongly in recent weeks. They’ve dropped a few games, that not many people thought they would have earlier in the year, but the promising thing, I guess, is that we’re confident going forward over this last third of the season of finals that we should be able to manage to find a bit of value is things have a lot of changes; injuries coming in and out and the stats kind of starting to get a bit more settled in our database. So looking forward to a good finish to the rest of the year at the very least.

Dave: So you mentioned West Coast as being one of the surprising teams. It’s probably three or four weeks ago now, you sent out an alert to members to get on them for the flag at around $11. Since then there’s quite a few more people that have jumped on the bandwagon, but what stood out at that stage is the West Coast being a genuine premiership threat.

Stephen: Yeah because we kind of try to get in the habit of running our future simulations every week but I think we let it go for a few weeks and we re-ran it and we had West Coast as sitting ranked second behind Hawthorn and couldn’t believe our eyes when we saw the price they were offering on some of the bookmakers. So just looking at their stats and what they’ve done this year completely blew away our expectations at the start of the year but it just … One thing we’ve around some of the measures that we create in terms to determine the strength and the form of the team is we use a couple of efficiency measures and by far and away West Coast are ranked the most efficient team on offence this year even higher than Hawthorn, which is a surprise, I guess, to most people.
So the measures that we use are inside 50s per goal and disposals per goal, so these measure how the team uses the ball around the field and the quality of their inside 50 entries. West Coast look dangerous enough up forward with Josh Kennedy leading the Coleman race and then they’ve got back Jack Darling and it makes them look even more unstoppable.
It’s exciting stuff, and as you said, we tipped them I think in round 13, so a couple of weeks ago now, at $11.00 and now they’ve come in to $6.50, so obviously the market’s responded a bit to their good form and also it moves a little bit after some followers got on, some money came for them, but they’re still rated as only number 4 in the market behind Sydney and Fremantle, so the public still isn’t 100% sold on them being a real top contender this year.

Dave: So going by game and also for totals you have your assessed price, your rated price and then you look into your overlays. In the futures, the premiership markets, so the do you actually have a probability, an assessed price for them at the moment, like how much of an overlay that is at 6.50?

Stephen: Yeah, at the moment we price Wet Coast around $4.00 for the flag and I see in the market you could get $6.50. I think I got that from Top Sport this morning and it could be higher or lower at other shops, depending on where you bet. But if I can compare say just to see the value elsewhere in the market, so Hawthorn is $2.60 favourite and we price that at about $2.50 so right on the money, but for Sydney and Freo our rated price is a lot higher than what the market is saying, so we’re not seeing any value there.
So Sydney is second favourite at $4.00 and Freo not far behind at $4.50 and we price them both around $8.00. So West Coast really the only ones that have value still in the market for us. So even though the price is a lot lower than it was when we picked it up, there’s still a bit of value left there in the market at the moment.

Dave: So with Sydney and Fremantle you’ve got them at a much bigger price that the market so a much lesser chance at winning the flag. Does that come from just the team stats they’re producing or is it the player ratings that you’ve incorporated this year?

Stephen: Yes. With our futures simulation, it’s less affected by player ratings just because it’s impossible to predict who’s going to get injured, suspended weeks into the future so we take a static view as at present, so we get our power ratings based on team stats and then project that into the future based on the team not changing at this point in time.
So if your best player goes down one week then that price isn’t really going to be accurate, but without completely knowing the goings on of future weeks is kind of the best we can do. But, yeah, this is more about team stats based as opposed to player ratings view, which is more of our week to week kind of analysis.

Dave: And how’s that gone since the first full season of having the player ratings incorporated. I’ve seen some of the write ups where you’ve said it’s the team changes that have been the impetus for this to be a bet. How’s that gone this year?

Stephen: Yeah, really strong. We’ve been running for a few years now with the team stats kind of model and so as you said we’ve been moving more starter line. At the end of last year we really started noticing the value that we were kind of not uncovering just by looking at a pure team stats point of view. In some games where the market might not pick up on it because you still have your Sam Mitchell’s and your Buddy Franklin’s still playing, but its that kind of core grade of players just below that that’s standard. It might not be the club’s number 1 player but when they lose those players it can really affect the team rating.
So a lot of weeks we’ve found teams that really below strength which they kind of base team stats off in previous weeks so I mean you’re missing 6 or 7 of your best 22, you can’t expect the historical stats to be useful because you’re starting to bring in some first gamers and some blokes have been running round in VFL or whatever, which is a completely different standard to an AFL game. So we’ve been kind of getting better at being able to see when there is an opportunity and really take advantage when there’s just a big discrepancy in there market to what we think should be the fair price.

Dave: Yeah, I noticed the weekend just gone when Hawthorn were playing Fremantle from the player ratings perspective just how many more elite and A grade players on your rankings that Hawthorn had as opposed to Freo and that’s actually the way it turned out as well.

Stephen: Yeah, I mean it’s the thing with Hawthorn, they’ve had a lot of big minuses this year and sometimes they haven’t come good because I can think of another occasion when we were on to cover the big start against Essendon and they just couldn’t kick straight, but despite that when they really fire up like that there’s really no stopping them. Freo were the best defense of the year by far, but once that Hawthorn machine gets rolling even Freo didn’t looking like scoring and didn’t look like stopping them either.
We kind of really got to see Hawthorn turn on last week which was kind of good because we’re having a few, I guess, sub par performances from them this year, namely at Essendon at Round 2 where they got done on the buzzer, and Sydney at home as well, where they went down to Sydney, so I think it would be a good test to see where they’re at now playing Sydney at ANZ this week. I think they’re a 1 goal favourite in the market at the moment, but it’s going to be … it’ll be a big ask for Sydney to stop them after what we saw last week.

Dave: How do you factor in any motivation or the emotional side of things into a quantitative model because someone like Hawthorn it seems like they’ll get up again to the best teams and show them what they can do, but I guess some of the middle of the road or bottom of tier teams are coming off back to back plays. They must just struggle to have nearly as much as motivation.

Stephen: Yeah that’s tough and Hawthorn is one of the teams historically where we have been pretty confident of backing a really big minues because moreso than other teams they never give up, they never stop playing their hearts out. That’s why you see so many times over the last few years they have put teams to the sword by almost a hundred plus on a few occasions. I think what it comes down to I guess is different teams have different win distribution, like margin of victory.
I think Hawthorn would be probably one of the ones that are to the higher end of … the longer tail of distributions, so they can beat these teams pretty regularly via a higher margin, but it is quite hard to factor in because at this stage we don’t really look at it per team approach because the data isn’t really there.
So we use data based on all teams, like a win distribution for all games played every week so in that case it kind of averages out to like a league average, which isn’t the best way to be done and there is improvements can be done there, but it’s a conservative approach and a good approximation at the very least.

Dave: And what about again with the model how do you factor in any changes to just the way the games played. I mean, there’s been a lot of talk this week about extra stoppages and stronger defences. How do you cope with those changes as opposed to keeping faith with the model that’s worked for a number of years?

Stephen: A lot of times we can’t really predict a strategy. We see someone like Western Bulldogs have just been putting a spare man in defence and their scores plummeted until the final quarter of that game against the Suns where they went gang busters, but generally like those kind of trends will come out in the stats but you just have to look for them.
So we don’t have the access to all of the fancy data that Champion Data procedures, which you might see on talkback shows and commentators at half time, used in their analysis, but we can still draw some conclusions on how efficient each team is playing and so this will give us I guess an indication of if the team is playing ineffective footy, kind of chipping around, that’ll come through in the numbers through one of our efficiency measures and that’ll come through in terms of how many scoring shots we predict they’ll to get in the game.
We do different factors of momentum, so if the team really changes strategy and takes a three week kind of … like a really new phenomenon, we can run a momentum factor that can weight the data more to recent weeks to really see how it’s affecting the numbers. And a lot of times it’s just a case where there’s too much speculation in that we think there’s a new style of play or we think there’s a factor that we’re not quite covering. We just take a conservative attitude and opt to not have a bet at all on the play instead of relying on one way or another kind of thing.

Dave: Because the style of play will affect the line bets, but also particularly the totals which I know you put a fair bit of work into and have had quite a bit of success with. So what’s your process in trying to work out whether the game’s going to go under or over?

Stephen: When it comes to totals, a lot of the edge comes through on the weather. Recently a lot of our plays have been based on reading that there’s a strong weather coming through, whether it be rain, wind or hail; some sort of element, but we have taken a few overs that have done real well, like on the weekend if you see a West Coast versus Adelaide match opening, your eyes light up; you know there’s going to be plenty of open footy and plenty of scores.
But I guess the way we look at it … say, when we’re looking at someone like West Coast, we … so I think they’re ranked second for inside 50s and they’re the most efficient with their inside 50s in terms of being able to score goals from them in the cold. If you combine that with looking at Adelaide’s defense, the match up’s look good, there are holes in their defense that can be found and just the fact that you put two kind of pretty efficient teams at the footy together and you I guess you can make a good assumption that the game’s going to be open; there’s going to be lots of running footy points scored, whereas if it’s two teams that are generally much better at contested footy and have a big number of stoppages; big number of tackles, it’s going to be generally more of a grind which is what we’ve seen from what the Western Bulldogs and Freo.
So I guess for us was really focused on finding real advantage in predicting the weather and how that’s going to affect the play, be it that there’s big rain forecast and we actually think nothing’s going to hit the game, so the over presents a lot of value or the other way round in that rain or wind might not be forecast as strong as we think it will be and then just kind of taking it under where there’s a significant chance where the games going to be affected by rain et cetera to make it a scrap.

Dave: Do you still get some good late mail from the weather bureau?

Stephen: Yeah, it’s something we’ve been trying to beef up on this year, so we’ve been doing a bit more research on how to read every aspect of the weather report using the Bureau of Meteorology and in the most cases it has been quite effective but I guess the only downside of that is if it’s a thing where we’ve kind of been releasing a few tips a few hours before the game, a real accurate look at how the weather’s going to be. Sometimes a forecast even 12 hours or 9 hours out from the jump can change so a lot of times we’re not confident on taking a bet much before that 2 hour mark before the game, especially if we think there’s going to be some sort of weather.
And it’s just to give ourselves as much time as possible because the last thing we want to do is take an over where we think there might be some rain and then 2 hours before the jump, sure enough, it’s almost a hundred percent certain that there is going to be rain and then we’re trying to bail out of our own bet, but its too late by then. I tell you, it’s really trying to I guess maximise our value by taking the bets where we know as much as we possibly can about what the conditions will be.

Dave: And speaking of value, I know you use closing line value as a metric outside of just the results of the game.

Stephen: Yeah, so closing line value is looking at the difference between the price of the line that you take in your bet and then what the line is at the close, when the bet jumps. So usually this is almost a more positive indicator of long profitability than short term betting results, just because its less subject to variance and to other factors, but generally I guess the theory is that by the time the match starts, the market should be as efficient as it would be in the whole week because the whole volume of money has come on from all your professional punters and all the sharp money.
So comparing that to what happens at the start of the week where a lot of times a few corporates like Bet365 and Sports Bet will open first and the market will be maybe 10 points off where it’s supposed to be. Pinnacle and TAB will set where the market’s going to go, so they start the week with some lower limits of one to two thousand dollars, and as the money comes on for a side it’ll just kind of start to get more efficient as the week goes on and then by game day the limits are really high; 20 grand or so generally we’ve been seeing.
Then as per volume of money comes on it’s generally its most efficient point just before the jump, so if you’re getting on earlier in the week when the limits are still there and beating the closing line by2 to 5 points, then you’re getting a serious amount of value and it should bode well to your long term performance.
So we just look at our bets for the year. We’ve had 115 bets so far and 68 of these have had a positive closing line value and 10 with a negative closing line value. So on average, we’re getting a closing line value of about 2 points on a line bet or a total bet, which is pretty good. If you’re just looking historically at games closing line value is about 5 points or more, the hit rate goes pretty high after that; above 60 percent. So it’s a promising sign and even though some of the results haven’t been there it’s good to see that we’re getting that closing line value.

Dave: Definitely. We’ll leave it there for now, Stephen. Really appreciate you coming back on the show and best of luck for rest of the season.

Stephen: Yeah, no worries and thanks for having us.

Get More Betting 360

Make sure you don’t miss our punting tips to come! Subscribe on:

or you can directly download this episode by right-clicking, Save As Here.

What Do You Think of the Show?

0 comments

Weekend Racing Reviews – July 11th

by Admin on July 13, 2015

Flemington Review from Ray Hickson

Race 1: Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m)

1st Automatic Choice – Darren Gauci
2nd El Greco – Damien Oliver
3rd Flying Light – Harry Coffey

Bengal Cat was fired out from the outside alley and crossed to the fence before handing up to Ayda and Automatic Choice who rushed forward to avoid being trapped wide. Ma Raison enjoyed a nice run just behind them and Party Boy settled next. Gungastruck was about midfield followed by Parmalove and Ayers Rock. El Greco was well back early after being tightened. They packed right up coming to the turn with six across the track closing in on Ayda, who had made it to the fence with Automatic Choice on the outside. Ma Raison looked poised and Triple Effort swept up widest on the track. Automatic Choice took over by the 300m and had Ma Raison and Gungastruck, the immediate challengers, covered. El Greco had improved behind them and come off the back of Gungastruck to start his run. Bengal Cat got up on the inside of the leader and had her chance. Automatic Choice just kept kicking as El Greco and Flying Light, further out, closed in and he held them off. El Greco was a little unlucky but the winner was there to be beaten. No excuses also for Bengal Cat and a nice run from Royal Rumble getting home from the back into fifth place.

Follow: longer term El Greco and Royal Rumble.

Race 2: Creswick Series Final (1200m)

1st Illustrious Lad – Craig Williams
2nd Sang Choi Bao – Jake Noonan
3rd Rough Justice – Damien Oliver

Mohave took it up near the middle of the track with Face Forward up handy. Rough Justice settled just behind them as did HussonEagle, who had Valderrama on his outside. Illustrious Lad followed Rough Justice while Sang Choi Bao sat at the back around Hell On Earth. Mohave seemed to travel okay in front but by the 400m was being asked to respond. Rough Justice went to his inside and Illustrious Lad came on to his outside as Face Forward started to struggle. Husson Eagle looked set to chime in but he went backwards very quickly and Sang Choi Bao swept down the outside. Illustrious Lad got to Rough Justice with 100m to run and had to hold off the challenge of Sang Choi Bao, which he did but not with a lot to spare. Solid effort from Rough Justice. Hell On Earth ran out of his skin to finish just behind the placings while a couple of bubbles burst with Valderrama and Husson Eagle finishing at the back.

Follow: none.

Race 3: Leilani Series Final (1400m)

1st Jessy Belle – Craig Williams
2nd Niminypiminy – Chris Parnham
3rd Smokin’ Al – Michael Dee

Mamwaazel jumped very quickly but didn’t want the front and Written came across to take it up with Smokin’ Al. Jessy Belle was stuck three wide with Sino Eagle holding her there and Miss Rose De Lago landed in a good spot. Niminypiminy found the back of Jessy Belle in the middle stages. Written was giving a good sight as she kicked clear past the 400m. Mamwaazel had plenty of room on the inside but couldn’t go through, Smokin’ Al sticking on and Jessy Belle was being held together as Niminypiminy loomed on her outside. Sino Eagle and Miss Rose De Lago were both struggling to pick up. They started to get to Written by the clock tower and Smokin’ Al raised an effort to go with Jessy Belle and they hit the lead together at the 100m. Jessy Belle, despite a wide run, is racing in great form and she finished it off a little better. Niminypiminy made a late dive at Jessy Belle but missed and well and truly had her chance. Smokin’ Al held on for third. A couple from the back ran on nicely when it was all over in Leia and Dig A Pony. Couldn’t find an excuse for Miss Rose De Lago other than maybe her previous start took too much out of her.

Follow: perhaps Dig A Pony could pick a race up.

Race 4: Country Cup Final (2000m)

1st Falago – Craig Williams
2nd Clairvaux – Craig Newitt
3rd Seattleite – Sally Wynne

Clairvaux was slowest out and settled a couple of lengths off the pack. Orientaped was sent forward from a wide gate and crossed to lead then Onpicalo ran up outside him. Tristram’s Sun had the box seat and Seattleite held a handy spot. Soon after Onpicalo ran to the lead. Refulgent wasn’t settling between Falago and Shikarpour in midfield. Onpicalo wasn’t overly pressured in front to the turn as Orientaped was being niggled a length away but they were moving up out wider with Seattleite, Falago and the jumper Vatuvei striding forward five deep. Tristram’s Sun got a rails run and Refulgent was in behind the leading bunch. Clairvaux was brought right to the outside but was still last at the 400m. Shikarpour got a run between Tristram’s Sun and Onpicalo but Seattleite chimed in with Falago to head them. Falago sprinted away from that bunch and had too big a break for the fast-finishing Clairvaux closing off hard late. Seattleite fought on nicely to hold a place just head of Shikarpour and Refulgent while King’s Palace made some late ground. Hard to make an excuse for anything as the winner sat wide and raced clear.

Follow: stay with Clairvaux.

Race 5: Silver Bowl Final (1600m)

1st Raposo – Brad Rawiller
2nd Plan – Craig Newitt
3rd Liberty Island – Glen Boss

He’s A Given went a bit hard in the early stages as he sped to the lead over Plan, getting across, and Liberty Island holding the box seat. Beau Pedrille was in the clear behind them with Cool and Duke Of Brunswick both in good spots. Raposo went right back near the tail. They seemed to get along at a good tempo here and coming to the turn a few were making runs. Sneferu was widest and he flushed Duke Of Brunswick and Beau Pedrille out but the leaders still had a kick. Plan moved to He’s A Given at the 400m. Cool tried to hold Liberty Island in a pocket but he managed to get across heels. Duke Of Brunswick was trying to wind up but didn’t seem to be making an impact and Raposo was weaving through the pack. Plan dashed away past the 200m and Liberty Island couldn’t match him but Raposo was really hitting the line and got between them, finishing over the top of Plan to win. Liberty Island had his chance in third. Beau Pedrille stuck on and was in a blanket go for fourth with Monteux and Pemberley charging home when it was all over. Duke Of Brunswick disappointed.

Follow: Monteux and Pemberley were both third-up and are close to a win.

Race 6: Rivette Series Final (1600m)

1st Manageress – Chris Parnham
2nd Kansas Sunflower – Craig Williams
3rd Penny To Sell – Steven King

Lucy’s Look jumped well from the inside gate and held the lead, though a few of them were looking for spots up there. Comic Miss andKansas Sunflower were there and the latter pressed on to sit second. Champagne Cocktail and Violent Snow pulled out of that battle while Penny To Sell improved to be with Violent Snow. Explosive One, Bonnie Belle and Vertical Hold were in a line next. Lucy’s Look was being stalked by Kansas Sunflower to the turn and was headed pretty early in the straight. Champagne Cocktail got a rails run and they broke clear. Penny To Sell started to work home with Explosive One, the latter battling a bit. Further out Violent Snow also struggled and Manageress was starting to hit top gear. Kansas Sunflower kicked right away and looked the winner at the 200m but Manageress really sprinted sharply, so much so she had almost a length advantage on the line. Penny To Sell stuck on for third ahead of Champagne Cocktail while Kaizaen, who was always well back, attacked the line nicely if a bit too late. Impressive performance from Manageress.

Follow: much better effort from Kaizaen.

Race 7: Winter Championship Final (1600m)

1st Amovatio – Damien Oliver
2nd Mr Utopia – Dwayne Dunn
3rd Coronation Shallan – Michael Dee

Ventic was fast away and held the fence while Coronation Shallan was revved up from out wide and crossed to join him. Tried And Tired and Good Value let them go and Tiny’s Legacy settled in the clear as they started to string out. Sir Andrew raced between Lake Sententia and Mr Utopia looking for some cover. Ventic and Coronation Shallan really got hiking along and opened up a few lengths over Good Value and Tried And Tired in the middle stages. They’d bunched considerably by the turn as Coronation Shallan served it up to Ventic. Tiny’s Legacy was looming up but nothing really made significant ground by the 300m. Sir Andrew started to close inside Tried And Tired and Good Value and while Mr Utopia was chiming in down the middle, Amovatio was weaving through the field too. By The Gracemade a dash late as Mr Utopia swooped on the leaders, sticking his head in front a few strides before the line but Amovatio made a dive and had his nose down right on the post. Coronation Shallan did a great job to battle on for third just ahead of Good Value and Ventic, who also held on nicely, from By The Grace. Big win from Amovatio coming from near last and Mr Utopia was gallant after sitting three deep for the trip.

Follow: none.

Race 8: All Victorian Sprint Final (1200m)

1st Play Master – Craig Newitt
2nd Lonrockstar – Craig Williams
3rd Hard Romp – Michael Dee

Lonrockstar wasn’t the best out, perhaps squeezed up a bit, and settled back. Hard Romp held them out near the middle of the track with Nearest To Pin over racing outside him and Written Up also going a bit keenly. Solsay settled right behind the leader whileDecircles was wider out, being tracked by Nadeem Lass. Play Master and About Square were in behind Solsay. Hard Romp was put under pressure at the 400m as he was joined on all sides with Play Master getting up underneath and Nearest To Pin and Written Up trying hard on his outer. Lonrockstar started to pick up following Play Master while wider out Decircles and Nadeem Lass weren’t in the hunt. Play Master got the better of Hard Romp past the 200m and kicked away. Lonrockstar set out after him on the inside but couldn’t bridge the gap. Whether the start was costly is debatable but he had his chance in the last furlong. Hard Romp did a good job to hold third considering he’s a risk at 1200m while Nearest To Pin and Nadeem Lass, leaving it too late again, were close up.

Follow: none.

Race 9: Banjo Paterson Final (2600m)

1st De Little Engine – Damien Oliver
2nd Timikar – Harry Coffey
3rd Cadillac Mountain – Glen Boss

Black Jag was stoked up from his wide alley to cross them and lead over Stable Star, Red Fella and Crafty Cruiser were handy andTimikar wider out improved. De Little Engine was in the second half early but he also gathered ground to wind up in second place. Timikar ran off the track on the home turn. Cadillac Mountain and Cooldini settled in midfield. Black Jag did his thing up front, making it a true staying test. De Little Engine didn’t let him get too far away and Stable Star enjoyed the box seat. Timikar settled a bit better in fourth and the only change all the way down the back straight was him moving to third. Black Jag was under pressure on the turn and Stable Star tried to get up on his inside. De Little Engine travelled well and hit the lead at the top of the straight. Timikar was going with him and Red Fella was further out. Crafty Cruiser and Cadillac Mountain looked for runs and Cooldini was also back in the ruck. De Little Engine was holding Timikar and Red Fella by the clock tower and Cadillac Mountain was running on to their inside as Black Jag weakened. Crafty Cruiser couldn’t go with them and Prizum did his typical late finish. But De Little Engine, perfectly ridden, edged away for a dominant win. Timikar was very game in second just ahead of Cadillac Mountain and Prizum. A couple of disappointments from Crafty Cruiser and Cooldini who seemed to have their chance.

Follow: none.

Specials from the meeting: Clairvaux, Monteux, Pemberley, Kaizaen.

——————————–

Race 1

1st Kenjorwood – Regan Bayliss
2nd Pajaro – Thomas Huet
3rd Eigelstein – Tye Angland

After we have been used to two-year-olds getting them underway of late, there was a field of five of the older horses on this card for the first. They took a little while to sort themselves out but Keep Cool ran to the front with Eigelstein closer than usual in second. The top two in betting, Kenjorwood and Pajaro went back to second last and last. Nothing changed in the middle stages and as they started to come around the turn, Kenjorwood moved into it with Pajaro following him up. Around the turn, Kenjorwood ran off the track a bit, but wound up strongly and looked a winning up as they topped the rise. He ran out again at the furlong, but Pajaro was struggling to get on terms. In the final part Kenjorwood was still having a good look around and running all over the place but had plenty on them and came on for a clear win. Not much can be said about the beaten horses here.

Follow: Kenjorwood (over 1600m)

Race 2

1st Kimberley Star – Blake Shinn
2nd Intrepid Way – Winona Costin
3rd Fulfilled Promise – Tim Clark

The two-year-olds were up next with Stalwart beginning well before Multitude headed it off and ran to the front. Fulfilled Promise ran to second with Stalwart settling in third, but then wanting to pull a bit as it was restrained. Before the turn, Kimberley Star looked to be traveling pretty well as it moved up three wide. Up the rise, Kimberley Star was being asked for an effort and responding nicely, as Stalwart back behind it looked a spent force. Kimberley Star was ridden out to the line and always had them covered in the final furlong. Intrepid Way was the eye catcher with another big finish as it put in last time out, but today it was only enough to grab third spot. A nice ride on the winner, a good run by the second horse is the summary here.

Follow: Intrepid Way

Race 3

1st Noela’s Choice – Regan Bayliss
2nd I’m In The Money – Tommy Berry
3rd Orion Love – Koby Jennings

The famous Randwick mile was the course for race three with Berrimilla sent out favourite and missing the kick and going back to last. I’m In The Money was best to begin and extended from out wide to go across and lead it clearly from Mardi who was well off the fence. There was a good break to Orion Love back in third as the field strung out. As they came around the turn, the field started to pack up a bit. Into the straight, and up the rise, I’m In The Money was still defying them, but soon after Noela’s Choice was let rip and was putting in a booming run down the outside. In the final 150m, Noela’s Choice had run clear and was set for victory despite doing exactly the same as Kenjorwood did in the first and running all over the place. I’m In The Money was a pretty decent run to hold on for second, whereas the others didn’t do a lot today.

Follow: I’m In The Money

Race 4

1st Skyline Blush – Brenton Avdulla
2nd Got You Double – Blake Shinn
3rd Montrer Dame – Thomas Huet

2000m for race three and they strung out over plenty of ground not long after the start with with Serious Spy running to the front from High Above. Kiseki Dane settled in third and Skyline Blush was across into a nice spot in fourth. They packed up a bit towards the 800m mark, but nothing really made a move until the point of the turn where Skyline Blush was moving up three wide and Got You Double was up four deep to be in a striking position. Kiseki Dane looked to be going ok in behind them but was getting no room at all as the turned. Up the rise, Got You Double and Skyline Blush had gotten the better of High Above and came away to fight it out. In the run to the line it was a good battle but Skyline Blush always maintained a short margin and got there about a head on the line. Montrer Dame finished its race off ok to get the better of the tiring High Above for third. The margin was unfair to Kiseki Dane.

Follow: Kiseki Dane

Race 5

1st Way We Go – Claire Nutman
2nd Reigning Meteor – Damien Thornton
3rd Momma’s Snitzel – Jess Taylor

Momma’s Snitzel and Minesota were both drawn wide and began well and came across to set the pace in race five. Inz’n’Out was in third with Way We Go out very wide in fourth. As they came around the bend and into the straight they were queuing up everywhere to make their bid for victory, but it was Way We Go who always had them covered out wide. Given the horse has won two from two on heavy going, I didn’t think it looked to be handling the ground all that well at times, and it beat them pointlessly in the end. It is hard to assess the win, given being out wide may not have been any disadvantage, but the way the horse won it is one that I am looking forward to seeing again. Reigning Meteor was a clear second best and should also be followed.

Follow: Way We Go, Reigning Meteor

Race 6

1st Idance – Tommy Berry
2nd Lunar Rise – Jason Collett
3rd Kristy Lee – Tye Angland

Queen Of Kariba was a clear last out of the gates here and went back to last, much to the disgust of favourite backers. Lunar Rise headed them off from Cool Ring with Alias in third and Foreign Prince rounding out the top four early on. The pace didn’t look that strong in the middle stages, and the eventual winner Idance was out wide but started to move forward as they headed towards the turn, with Got The Goss following it up. Into the straight, Lunar Rise was trying to kick on, but Idance looked to be traveling better as it cruised up on the outside, and Cool Ring had been dropped off in the middle. Queen Of Kariba had too much ground to make up at the furlong. This was another good two horse war in the run to the line with Lunar Rise putting up a fight, but Idance got the better of it in the final part and pulled away for a narrow but clear enough win. Kristy Lee worked home well into third as she often does. Queen Of Kariba has to be forgiven after its bad start, given its form was so good prior.

Follow: Lunar Rise is bursting to win

Race 7

1st Astronomos – Jason Collett
2nd Dure – Kathy O’Hara
3rd Campania – Kerrin McEvoy

Back to the 2000m trip for race seven. Zayam strode out to a clear lead. Frank Who kicked through along the fence from Campania in third and Casino Dancer landing nicely in fourth with Astronomos inside of it and Let Me Handle It going forward out wide. Again the field strung out a bit with the pace looking ok in the middle stages. It’s All About You who was well in betting contention got back to a clear last. Zayam still had it as they straightened with Campania throwing out the challenge. Back behind them, Astronomos had made ground and was working its way into the clear and Dure was running on down the outside. Once fully into the clear inside the final 100m, Astronomos was the one who finished best and got there narrowly on the line. This was a very good win given the horses determination in the final part and the fact it wasn’t in fully clear running until late in the race. No excuses for anything beaten here by a better horse on the day.

Follow: Astronomos

Race 8

1st Darciwood – Tommy Berry
2nd Wonderbolt – Josh Cartwright
3rd Il Mio Destino – Jess Taylor

It was a 1000m dash for the final event and they charged into the first turn with Il Mio Destino going to the lead out wide from Floral Insight. It was the kind of race where they basically charged all the way as you would expect over 1000m, but it this case they virtually stayed in lanes which meant some were very wide, withSelectify the widest in the run. Whilst it all unfolded up front, Darciwood was let canter around behind them by Tommy Berry. If you happened to be watching it as they came around the turn and topped the rise it was cantering up to them and once let go by Tommy Berry had them easily covered and ran clear over the final part. It was hard to say here whether the winner was impressive, or whether the circumstances, combined with a smart ride flattered it on the day. I would expect some form reversals out of this due to the heavy conditions and hard runs that some of them had. It is one of those races where you need to watch the replay if you can.

Follow: None to follow, watch the replay

Specials from the meeting: Lunar Rise, Way We Go, Astronomos

0 comments

Ashes Series Preview

by Admin on July 8, 2015

The biggest rivalry in Australian sport is here. It’s not Origin it’s the Ashes!

I’ll make this preview short so we can get to the bets! The Australian team goes into this series with a massive shock through the squad. The immediate retirement of leading quick Ryan Harris is a MASSIVE out for the Australians. He is (or should I say was) one of the best bowlers I have ever seen, his ability to hit his highest level from ball one of a spell was invaluable to the Australian attack.

With Ryan’s departure it leaves Australia with a massive hole in its attack. It also opens the door wide open for Josh Hazelwood to announce himself to the cricketing world. He is the logical replacement opening bowler as opening with Johnson and Starc could become very expensive. Hazelwood’s high release point and simple action should get plenty of seam movement out of the English pitches and trouble the English batsman.

Earlier today Captain Clarke came out and gave his thoughts on the Cardiff pitch. A green seamer seems to await the Australians in the first test which could cause them to go in with a 4 pronged pace attack. Johnson, Hazelwood, Starc and Siddle with an all-rounder (Watson most likely) would be a great attack.

England have now come right back into contention this series due to some late form against NZ and Ryan Harris’s retirement. Cook has found some form and has started to make runs; Lyth is exciting and has a youthful flare about his batting. Root is utter class at the crease and Bell has the experience to guide the English in times of need.

The points of difference for the series:

First Drop:

Steve Smith vs. Gary Balance… This isn’t even a question for me; Steve smith has made runs all over the world against every attack since changing his technique and becoming a pure bred batsman. Balance on the other hand has a good record so far but it’s skewed from series against Sri Lanka, India and West Indies all sides who have B Grade pace attacks compared to the Aussies. Against NZ and Australia Balance averages just 9 & 12.5 respectively. Although a small sample size against these nations one has to wonder if he can handle a world class quick bowler.

Wicketkeeper:

Butler vs. Haddin…. On one hand we have a young imposing player that has put away class attacks in the past and has the ability to decimate attacks with his hockey style swing of a cricket bat. He hits the ball HARD almost as hard as anyone in the game today. In the Australian camp we have Haddin or as Clarke put it the captain of Dads army, the ageing wicket keeper needs to show he still has it with the bat or Australia could find themselves one destructive batsman short. Don’t discount how important Haddin was in the Whitewash of 13/14.

Verdict

I think the series ends 3-1 or 2-1 Australia’s way however the score line will flatter Australia. I expect England to fight in every test and would not completely shock me if England tie or even win the series.

Best Series bets.

Bet Odds Units Reasoning
Broad over 18.5 wickets 1.9 1 Think the Bookies have underestimated Broads bowling of the past 6-12 months. Add to that the hatred shared by the Australian team for Broad I think he will be England’s top bowler for the series. Pity little value in the market though
MJ over 20.5 wickets 1.87 1.5 MJ took 20 wickets in the 09 series at an average of 32.55 which is almost 5 points higher than his career ave which is shocking. In the 13/14 series he was bowling the England team out for less that 140 (Ave of 13.97 per wicket). Mitch only needs to put a performance just moderately better than horrific to cover this line.

 

Best 1st Test Markets (Taking advantage of Sports bets Promotion Score 50 runs or more but lose Top Team Run scorer market money back up to $50)

Bet Odds Units Reasoning
Root Top Team Run scorer 4 0.5 With the Sports bet special this is great value. Root has class and form which should see him negotiate the Australians without much trouble coming in at #5
Rodgers Top Team Run scorer 5.5 0.5 A veteran in English conditions. Plays late which is a massive + in English conditions would not surprise to top the runs for the series with consistent performances in the past in the 50-90 range he should activate the promo let alone top score on a seaming green deck more than 20% of the time.

 

All bets can be found on my Twitter @malonecricpicks please feel free to contact me with any queries on a bet or just to talk cricket. I will be releasing my Player Ratings and an explanation (like above) for each bet given on twitter around 6pm AEST.

Best of luck and happy punting!

0 comments

Weekend Racing Reviews – July 4th

by Admin on July 6, 2015

Caulfield Review from Ray Hickson

Race 1: Ted Rainford Plate (1100m)

1st Green Card – Linda Meech
2nd Magna Rossa – Katelyn Mallyon
3rd Jalan Jalan – Jackie Beriman

Spatsizi stumbled at the start and went back. Magna Rossa flew out from out wide and Northkape and Madonna Lily were handy.Dream On Monty pressed on three wide on the speed. Green Card was in that bunch with Shadowbrook Lass looking for a spot.Favourite Sister settled between horses and Jalan Jalan wasn’t far from her in midfield ahead of It’s Humphrey and Spatsizi improving. Green Card moved quickly outside the leading pair on the turn and hit the lead soon after with Magna Rossa trying to go with him. Northkape was beaten off. Madonna Lily went looking for a run behind them but the leading pair got away from her. Dream On Monty was holding Favourite Sister in a pocket by the 300m. Atlantic City and Jalan Jalan were getting through inside those. Green Card waved them goodbye inside the 200m and scored with a bit in hand. Smart win. Magna Rossa kept on for second and Jalan Jalan was hitting the line nicely into a place. Every chance Madonna Lily and a nice debut running on next from Le Capitaine who weaved through from the back. Spatsizi dropped out.

Follow: obviously the winner is smart but plenty to like about Le Capitaine.

Race 2: Thurgood Family Plate (1200m)

1st Pilly’s Wish – Dwayne Dunn
2nd Elle Excite – Craig Newitt
3rd Khutulun – Ben Melham

Plenty of speed from Miss Burlesque from a wide gate and she crossed Carashan Girl and Belaruski, a couple of lengths clear ofSinhala. First Print improved along the inside of her ahead of Flash Of Doubt and Pilly’s Wish who only jumped fairly but better than last start. Fine Approach was also only okay to begin was behind the favourite with Khutulun. The field started to really pack up before the turn and Sinhala moved alongside Carashan Girl and Miss Burlesque but getting into the clear right behind them Pilly’s Wish cruised up early in the straight. First Print couldn’t go with them and Fine Approach ran up behind Pilly’s Wish with Khutulun on her outside. Pilly’s Wish had enough in hand to hold on and win but there was a wall behind her chasing. Elle Excite flew from the back to snatch second and Khutulun stuck on well for third. Nothing between Fine Approach, Niminypiminy and Iggimacool closing off very nicely out widest first-up. Probably a length between the first seven or eight home.

Follow: such a blanket finish so none in particular. But, do note the nice first-up run from stayer Iggimacool.

Race 3: Henry Dwyer Racing (2000m)

1st Radical – Jake Bayliss
2nd Heavy – Michael Dee
3rd Winchester Club – Chris Parnham

Nobody looked overly eager to lead and eventually Betsy kicked through and was joined by Temps Voleur. Piran held her spot on the fence and Blackjack Bella sat up handy. A couple of lengths back Winchester Club raced in the clear. Gilchrist was just on his inside and Statue Of Warriors was next. Heavy and Skyfire followed those. Temps Voleur took over from Betsy on top of the hill and Blackjack Bella moved to second. Piran and Winchester Club enjoyed nice runs and State Of Warriors was asked to improve. They bunched up noticeably soon after and Radical whipped up quickly around them from third last to join the leaders on the turn. Winchester Club tried to go with him as they ran past Temps Voleur. Statue Of Warriors and Skyfire dropped off quickly after looming on the turn and Heavy was caught up behind a few struggling into the straight. Radical kept the run going and dashed away past the 200m. Winchester Club stayed on and Heavy started to wind up down the outside, Gilchrist got his second wind and was looking a place hope. Radical was all out in the closing stages but that early move prove a winning one. Heavy got very close and arguably should have won, while Winchester Club ran a much improved racing holding off Gilchrist.

Follow: Heavy has been up a while but he was unlucky.

Race 4: NJT Final (1200m)

1st Rich Jack – Darren Dauci
2nd Sir Mask – Jake Bayliss
3rd Lord Da Vinci – Craig Newitt

Rich Jack jumped best and was straight on the lead from Rose Of Texas up handy and Sir Mask drove through on the fence inside her.Tennessee Lad sat up fourth underneath Neverending Valley and Morant caught three wide. Another line of three including Spencer Street on the fence, Stereosonic over racing and Mick’s Hustler while Lord Da Vinci trailed them. By the 600m Rich Jack had opened a clear lead and he was doing it under his own steam. Sir Mask was starting to edge away from Rose Of Texas and those behind her were being pushed along but not improving. Rich Jack went to the centre of the track in the straight and was unchallenged, never threatened and went on to score easily. Sir Mask tried his hardest to chase him down but was no hope, out wider Neverending Valley ran on with Lord Da Vinci coming from the back and Mick’s Hustler getting through the centre around Spencer Street. You don’t let Darren Gauci dictate on a front runner and Rich Jack caned them. Sir Mask held on well for second and Lord Da Vinci just out-bobbed Mick’s Hustler. Winner had it far too easy.

Follow: none.

Race 5: 3YO open (1400m)

1st Volcanic Ash – Damien Oliver
2nd Herstory – Luke Nolen
3rd Actuariat – Steven Arnold

Raposo was out the back early, as has been usual, with Actuariat. Zahspeed showed his normal early pace to lead Mihany who was looking for something to give cover and Cataleya obliged. Propelled was in the box seat. Volcanic Ash looked to be pulling a bit aroundHerstory clear of He’s A Given. Zahspeed wasn’t overly pressured by Cataleya and he had her off the bit past the 600m, Propelled was niggled at too and Mihany peeled out to try and improve. Herstory was getting off the fence next with Volcanic Ash being ridden up to go with her. Zahspeed had a big lead into the straight but was feeling the pinch by the 200m and Herstory and Volcanic Ash were closing in out wide while Raposo made his run through the middle and ran right up the back of Zahspeed. That cost him any chance as Volcanic Ash hit the lead and edged clear late of Herstory. Hitting the line strongly for third Actuariat from the back and Raposo got going again for fourth but should have been a lot closer. He’s A Given ran a mixed race but made late ground. Mihany proved disappointing.

Follow: give Raposo another chance.

Race 6: Wilson Medic One Handicap (1400m)

1st Charmed Harmony – Katelyn Mallyon
2nd Tried And Tired – Steven Arnold
3rd Henwood – Glen Boss

Eximius beat them out and held the early lead before Charmed Harmony worked across with Tried And Tired to take over. Henwoodrecovered after a poor start to be fourth on the fence and Our Hand Of Faith caught wide eased looking for cover, but there was none to be found. Stratigraphy, Free Of Doubt and Tiny’s Legacy were the next bunch with the latter pulling. Charmed Harmony had them strung right out past the 800m as he strode along at a good gallop. Tried And Tired was being niggled at that far out and Henwood travelled okay a few weeks back. Eximius was under heavy pressure and Stratigraphy got up on his inside. About five horses off the fence Charmed Harmony still had a good lead at the 300m though Tried And Tired had closed the margin a little and Henwood was looming up too. They were well clear of the rest of the field who simply weren’t in the race. Charmed Harmony wasn’t touched with the whip until the 200m and he saw off the challengers and kicked away again late. Far too good. Tried And Tried and Henwood aren’t the bravest horses and they stuck on but never looked like catching the winner. Huge gap to Stratigraphy.

Follow: the winner was too strong and best to forget those back in the ruck were there.

Race 7: TAB Supports NJT Plate (1100m)

1st Our Harmony – Harry Coffey
2nd Amarela – Darren Gauci
3rd Chiavari – Dwayne Dunn

A heap of interest in the early lead and Pink Perfection just had it from Shakespearean Lass on the inside and Indulge and Stilettomaking a line of four. Tykiato eased out of that battle. Watching it all happen were Our Harmony and Lirabird a couple of lengths away and they improved inside Tykiato. Amarela saved ground on the inside on the turn and Chiavari was getting around Tykiato dropping out. Pink Perfection got the better of those around her at the top of the straight, Lirabird and Amarela made their runs inside her while out wider Our Harmony and Chiavari were winding up. Pink Perfection was a spent force at the 150m and Our Harmony and Chiavari claimed her with Our Harmony just doing that little bit better late to win. She’s in great form. Amarela kept coming and almost grabbed second but settled for third ahead of Lirabird and the fast-finishing Mossbeat who weaved through and hit the line. Pink Perfection easily held the rest at bay. The others from on the speed dropped right out.

Follow: Mossbeat can be hard to catch but an excellent return.

Race 8: Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m)

1st Miss Promiscuity – Dwayne Dunn
2nd Angels Beach – Luke Nolen / Wild Rain – Glen Boss

Lord Of The Sky bumped with Miss Promiscuity at the start and came off second best. Angels Beach jumped well and came across but Wild Rain kicked up on the inside to hold her out. Miss Promiscuity was handy and Minaj showed her usual speed to be up there. Lord Of The Sky recovered a bit but couldn’t get near the lead. In the bunch inside him were Sea Lord, Anatina and Heart Of A Lion.Riziz was on the outside of his SA counterpart. Wild Rain and Angels Beach went to the centre of the track on the turn with Miss Promiscuity stalking. They skipped away from Lord Of The Sky who was a spent force and Minaj on the inside. Heart Of A Lion made ground between horses but a fair way off the leaders. Miss Promiscuity hit the lead about 150m out and forged away from Angels Beach who was sticking on well and Wild Rain but they were no match. Heart Of The Lion did best of those chasing from the back and Klishinafinished on hard out wide late, as she often does. What to make of Lord Of The Sky? Once he was slowly out that was the end of him. Obviously he’s better than that but you wouldn’t be taking short odds again next time.

Follow: none.

Race 9: Spicer Thoroughbreds Handicap (2000m)

1st Lord Durante – Darren Gauci
2nd Secessio – Damien Thornton
3rd Bagman – Damien Oliver / Commanding Time – Katelyn Mallyon

Spirited battle for the lead with Commanding Time being held out by Use The Lot early on clear of Hioctdane and Self Sense. After being pushed along early Word Of Mouth settled in a good spot and Lord Durante was just on his inside. In a strung out fieldWestsouthwest was just off midfield. Commanding Time got his way in front in the middle stages and raced out four lengths clear of Use The Lot. Hioctdane sat on his outside and Self Sense had worked off the rails next. Lord Durante improved on the fence and at that point Word Of Mouth looked in a bit of trouble. Just past the 800m Westsouthwest started to improve around Word Of Mouth and he was immediately under pressure. Commanding Time still led on the turn but the field had packed up and he stayed towards the inside. Hioctdane went wider and Lord Durante took a saloon run through the centre to challenge. Self Sense couldn’t go on and Westsouthwest battled. Word Of Mouth was gone. A couple of them cutting the corner got into the race in the straight with Bagman and Secessio the main closers. Lord Durante took over and did enough to hold them off. A good go for second and Secessio, at huge odds, speared through to grab it over Bagman and Commanding Time, who couldn’t be split. Another nice run from Westsouthwest. Favourite Word Of Mouth was never a chance.

Follow: can’t wait for Westsouthwest to go jumping again but he’s also flying on the flat.

Specials from the meeting: Le Capitaine, Heavy, Mossbeat.

————————————————————

Rosehill Review from Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st Surfin’ Safari – Thomas Huet
2nd Vanbrugh – Blake Shinn
3rd Stalwart – Tim Clark

Ramla Bay was slow out from the inside in race one for the two-year-olds.Surfin’ Safari came out nicely from an outside gate but Let’s Make It Rain and Hail The Chief had more speed along the inside. With those two kicking up, it meant Surfin’ Safari was caught three wide. Achilles Two had a good run behind the pace on the fence, whilst Vanbrugh was another caught wide but had cover. Mid way up the straight, Let’s Make It Rain had the front but the two widest runners in transit were threatening danger and soon after Surfin’ Safari and Vanbrugh struck the front together. In the final part, Surfin’ Safari had a bit too much for Vanbrugh and got the money, but I would expect improvement from the second horse. Stalwart ran on nicely into third.

Follow: Vanbrugh

Race 2

1st Sir Mako – Tim Clark
2nd Beyond Thankful – Rory Hutchings
3rd Reigning – Brenton Avdulla

1900m for race two and Georgey Aeroplane who ran well start start was sent out favourite and began well. When they settled however it wasBeyond Thankful taking it up clearly from Keep Cool, with Lucky Lagoin third and Georgey Aeroplane finding a nice spot in fourth. They strung out up the back straight with Beyond Thankful setting a pretty good pace in front and leading by about three lengths. There was no change in the middle stages, and up to and around the turn, Beyond Thankful still had a good margin. It managed to maintain that lead up to the furlong pole, and at that point you cound see Sir Mako making good ground over towards the inside. At the 100m mark, it was evident Sir Mako was finishing best and he shot through to take the lead and beat Beyond Thankful.Reigning, who tried to get going before the turn, didn’t ping as well as it did the other day, but finished off well enough to get into third place and may be better at this distance range next time.

Follow: Reigning

Race 3

1st Soviet Courage – Glyn Schofield
2nd Der Meister – Thomas Huet
3rd Vysotsky – Danny Beasley

2400m was the distance of the third event, and Space from an outside gate was going up to have a look at Mr Steal as they reached the post the first time, but it was Mr Steal that kicked through to lead them up.Missvonn was in a nice spot in third with Alrouz caught out wide around it and pressing forward, eventually going to second, which gave Missvonn the one out and one back trail. Not a great deal happened throughout the middle stages until Missvonn got going three wide at about the 700m mark. As they were rounding the turn, Mr Steal was trying to get a break on them but wasn’t successful in doing that and when they got into the straight Space was there to challenge as was Soviet Courage on the inside after a nice run throughout. At the furlong Soviet Courage had a break with Der Meister looking a big chance of running it down. Those two fought it out and gapped the rest. Soviet Courage was strong to the line and got away by about three quarters of a length in the final 50m. Above five lengths back in third was Vysotsky who made up many lengths on Mr Steal to grab that spot.

Follow: None to follow

Race 4

1st Land Grant – Brenton Avdulla
2nd Elle Lou – Christian Reith
3rd Alegria – Hugh Bowman

Land Grant from out wide pinged the gates here and crossed to lead easily. Cisco Kid moved up to second outside of the leader and Avonacoworked around the outside three wide towards the front. Cisco Kid eased in third about three lengths back and then there was another break toDisgraceful and Elle Lou. Around the turn, Land Grant got rid of Cisco Kid but Elle Lou was quickly there to throw out a challenge and Disgraceful was trying to come down the outside. In the run to the line, Land Grant kept finding and held off the challenge of Elle Lou. In third was the very unlucky Alegria who at one point just about had to turn sideways to get into clear running. Thereafter it finished off better than anything in the race and should be followed.

Follow: Alegria

Race 5

1st Hard To Hold – Christian Reith
2nd Fiftyshadesofgrey – Jason Collett
3rd Miniature – Winona Costin

Private Secretary, Fiftyshadesofgrey and Sense And Reason who were all reasonable chances in betting went back towards the rear early on. There was a fair bit of competition at the top for the lead, with Hard To Hold coming across to take it up from Miniature with Footy Fan getting a nice run on the fence in third. Commanding Wit got the one out and one back trail. Into the straight and up to the furlong, Hard To Hold and Miniature were fighting it out with nothing else really getting to them. Hard To Hold shook off Miniature and was all set for victory inside the 100m mark. Fiftyshadesofgrey put in a booming finish as it did last time out, but today stood the leaders up too much start and was a gallant second. Miniature held on for third.

Follow: Hard To Hold

Race 6

1st Haussmann – Christian Reith
2nd Two Blue – Winona Costin
3rd See The World – Hugh Bowman

See The World was out slowly, and Rugged Cross went back there by design. A few of them were taking each other on at the top end, with Two Blue crossing to the front from Dances On Stars, with Haussmann back on the fence and Dothraki trapped three wide. Up around the turn, Two Blue still had the front, with Dothraki on the scene out three wide where he had been for the whole race. At the 250m mark, Two Blue narrowly had it, but Christian Reith was looking for a double and driving Haussmann through along the rail, whilst Blake Shinn was all out on Dothraki. It was a good battle to the line between Haussmann and Two Blue, with Haussman getting the nod. See The World put in a good finish for third but was a good margin from the first two. Dothraki could scrape a pass mark for this effort after being wide under a big weight, and Rugged Cross finished off ok.

Follow: None to follow

Race 7

1st Shiraz – Jason Collett
2nd Zaratone – Rachel Murray
3rd Casual Choice – Thomas Huet

Zaratone loves to lead and did so here. Howmuchdoyouloveme was caught three wide on the track with Straturbo inside of it and Decision Time on the fence. They were into the straight before you knew it and Zaratone was still over a length clear. He maintained that lead until about the furlong mark but Shiraz had moved into the clear and made up good ground and soon after went by to go on for a very impressive first up win. Zaratone held onto second with Casual Choice getting third ahead ofBreakfast In Bed. Brook Road was pretty average here today after a good win last time out, although it did end up further back than was probably desired here.

Follow: Shiraz

Race 8

1st Hollywood Bound – Blake Shinn
2nd Great Esteem – Hugh Bowman
3rd Marenostro – Tye Angland

1500m to finish off the day and Artibai took a backwards step when the gates opened and was back at the tail with Scratch Me Lucky. There was a bit of pace early on, and when they sorted themselves out it was Off The Rails leading out from Eisenhower. Great Esteem and Moral Victory had the gun runs behind the pace. Back in the field, Grande Punto was trapped very wide and the eventual winner, Hollywood Bound trailed it up. The favourite, Marenostro was cluttered up between horses as they turned for home. Into the straight, they were all over the place briefly before Hollywood Bound asserted its superiority and went clear. At the same time, Marenostro was in a pinball machine in the middle and got spat out the back. Hollywood Bound always had them covered in the final part of the race and went on to beat Great Esteem and Marenostro who it is fair to say didn’t have every chance, but probably would not have beaten the winner.

Follow: Marenostro

Specials from the meeting: Alegria, Shiraz

0 comments

Weekend Racing Reviews – June 27th

by Admin on June 29, 2015

Flemington Review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: Murray Cox Handcap (1400m)

1st Bengal Cat – Craig Williams
2nd El Greco – Luke Nolen
3rd Irada – Craig Newitt

Him Name Jim broke the line first and settled in front of Ayers Rock and Alamonteel landed in a good spot. Triple Effort didn’t jump the best but improved to be behind that bunch with Bengal Cat and Oxbow on her outside. El Greco moved into a three wide trail and Brass In My Pocket had to ease a bit. Ayers Rock ran to the lead in the middle stages as Him Name Jim took the box seat. Alamonteel and Oxbow challenged Ayers Rock shortly after straightening and El Greco came off their backs to join in past the 400m. Bengal Cat was being held up behind that group and Him Name Jim also had trouble. El Greco hit the lead coming to the 200m and did look to have their measure but wasn’t getting away from them. Bengal Cat got into the clear soon after and started to charge at him with Irada making ground further out. Bengal Cat’s finish was a bit too strong for El Greco and she arrived in time to score. Irada wasn’t far away as well and they put a gap on the rest of the field. Handy run behind the placings from Ma Raison on debut getting home, Oxbow battled on and the other one making some ground was Automatic Choice, though well beaten.

Follow: Ma Raison’s debut was more than acceptable. (Click to continue reading…)

1 comment

End of Financial Year Special

by Admin on June 26, 2015

Nobody starts out as a successful punter right off the bat.

Nobody is capable of winning right from the start and making consistent long-term profits.

Instead what happens is that you go through an ‘apprenticeship’ during which you lose, but learn.

Those lessons are invariably both painful and expensive. A tiny percentage of punters make it to the other side to become break-even punters. An even smaller percentage actually win long-term, year in and year out.

But imagine if you could skip the steep learning curve and costly mistakes?

Whether you’re a young, green punter or a battle-weary veteran still struggling in the battle against the bookies, imagine if you could actually just plug into the work of a professional punter and make exactly the same bets they do.

Well that is exactly what we’re offering with our NSW and VIC ratings packages. And all for just a dollar or two per race.

You can use a proven punting approach that allows you to bet with an edge on the market.

Nathan Snow (NSW) and Andrew Hannan (VIC) will do everything in their powers to help you mimic their success and win. You will get rated prices, runner comments, speed map info and an interactive Q&A page each raceday.

NSW:

There were two big highlights at yesterday’s Canterbury meeting.

  • r5 n3 Archean members were advised to take $10 at Bet365 (rated $5.50)
  • r7 n13 Tennesse Hussy members were advised to take $14 at Bet365 (rated $9.00)

If you want to be backing short-priced favourites all day then to be honest this is not the service for you. Nathan’s niche is finding value runners in the market and his ‘sweet spot’ is the $5 to $15 range.

And I’m sure you’re aware that the NSW minimum bet rules have been an absolute god-send for punters.

VIC:

Andrew recommended betting into 4 races at Sale on Wednesday and found 3 winners. The highlight was Handsome Tycoon in Race 8:

‘Unlucky not to win last start. Last heavy track run produced an enormous rating when winning by 7.3L in Syd. Capable of significant improvement.’

Handsome Tycoon was a double overlay winner and it was a massive day for members, but certainly no fluke. Since launching in late February, the VIC service has won $12,678 at a Profit on Turnover of better than 10%.

Yesterday was a very good one for both NSW and VIC members and no doubt there will be plenty more of those soon.

So while there is no bad time to get on board, right now is the perfect time….

End of Financial Year special:

A NSW ratings membership is normally $399 per month, or $3999 per year.

A VIC membership is normally $299 per month, or $2999 per year.

But right now we are making a once-a-year offer where you can save $1000 off either ratings package.

So your choice is whether you want to:

(a) spend many hours on each of the next 365 days to own analyse all the form and try to come up with bets that will beat the market
or
(b) pay $10 to $15 per meeting to have all the work done for you to be able to bet with confidence and a winning edge in a team atmosphere.

And you still get our Exclusive Profit Guarantee which means you either win money with us or get your membership doubled.

Click here for Nathan Snow’s NSW ratings.
or
Click here for Andrew Hannan’s VIC ratings.

You are also welcome to call the office on 1300 500 057.

Good punting
David Duffield
Champion Picks

Professional. Profitable. Guaranteed

0 comments