Horses for courses – Flemington

by David on October 30, 2014

With the four fantastic days of the Flemington carnival almost upon us it’s a great time to take an in-depth look at the track.

flemington-aerial

Our analysis is based on the best of the three totes and the on course Starting Price in all Flemington races since 2008. Using that criteria makes our benchmark profit on turnover figure is -7.5% for all runners.

So the following tables list the differential to that -7.5% mark. For example a ‘vs. benchmark’ figure of +10 means that group actually made a profit of 2.5%, while -10 vs the benchmark represents a loss on turnover of 17.5%.

Let’s start with the best performing barriers (relative to market expectations) but we’ll separate the straight races from those around a bend. You can see that like so many other tracks, punters tend to over-rate the benefit of being ‘drawn well’ and in fact barriers 1-7 lost at twice the rate of barriers 8+.

Flem-barriers

Favourites performed exceptionally well, yet second favourites were poor so these two numbers are likely to come closer together over time. But outsiders were poor value again and that shouldn’t surprise regular readers. The top six in the betting market performed 3% above the benchmark, whereas horses outside of that top six were 9% worse than the average.

flem-sp-rank

Some very good hoops were in the group of best performing jockeys (minimum 100 rides):

flem-jockeys

The list of most profitable trainers (once again minimum 100 runners) features some big stables, but a lesser light heads the table:

flem-trainers

Home track trainers tended to perform very well:

flem-home-track

Experience at the track is well accounted for by the market:

flem-experience

Yet coming off a Flemington run last start is under-valued:

flem-ls-track

Tactical speed is less important than other tracks such as Moonee Valley which we analysed last week:

flem-ls-settled

NSW form was exceptionally under-rated by the betting public:

flem-ls-state

Nadia Horne from Melbourne’s RSN radio wanted to discuss the Flemington track this week and you can listen to our chat below:

Good luck

David Duffield

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Cox Plate Day reviews

by darryn on October 27, 2014

Moonee Valley review by Ray Hickson

Race1: Inglis Banner (1000m)

1st Fontiton – Mark Zahra
2nd Hot Snippety – Zac Purton
3rd Braccenby – Nash Rawiller

Hot Snippety was one of the best out along with a few drawn wider, San Sierra, Poppi Rox and Syn City, but they were all burnt off by Fontiton who drove up along the rail to lead easily. The Barrister also improved along the rail and Stylemaker settled up in the first half. Fontiton didn’t really settle that well in the lead and Hot Snippety and Syn City were there to keep her honest. But Fontiton was clearly travelling the best and she slipped away near the turn. Syn City was the first to crack and Hot Snippety did her best to stick with the leader. The Barrister was under pressure with Stylemaker and they were going nowhere. A couple of lengths back Braccenby started to warm up. Shaken up on the turn Fontiton put a gap on Hot Snippety and she was being eased up with 80m to go. Hot Snippety just lasted from the fast-finishing Braccenby. Best of the rest were Stylemaker and Poppi Rox but they were safely held and not much can be said for the remainder.

Follow: aside from Fontiton, who is obviously smart, Braccenby’s effort was promising. (Click to continue reading…)

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The focus of the racing world is on Moonee Valley this weekend with the Manikato Stakes meeting Friday night followed up by the Cox Plate on Saturday.

So this week on the podcast we’re focused on finding value at what is a unique track and Rick Williams explains his approach to betting at the Valley.

Punting Insights You’ll Find:

  • The best spots to be in the run
  • How the rail position affects his analysis
  • Whether experience at the track is a bonus
  • A surprising negative to look out for

This discussion is a follow-up to this week’s ‘Horses for courses’ analysis.

Today’s Guest:
Rick Williams

Get the Transcript:

>> Click Here to Read the Transcript

David Duffield: The focus this week is Moonee Valley, so let’s have a chat about the track itself and how you approach analysing a race and formulating your ratings there. Obviously it’s a unique track in a few different aspects but do you do anything differently when you’re betting there?

Rick Williams: Well the first thing I do is just go through the normal process and that’s highlighting and basically doing the market and working out who’s the best horse. From there obviously you can make some little adjustments or just mental notes regarding where the rail is. Generally it’s a pretty dry track at Moonee Valley. It doesn’t normally get too wet so you’re generally working on a good to dead surface. Sometimes it’s slow but generally it’s pretty well draining. Certainly the rail, wherever that is, is probably the thing that you have a look at.

David Duffield: And that gets talked about a bit. When the rail’s out, that it tends to favour on pacers and that’s not the same for every race, because sometimes there can be an over-reaction but how do you change your assessments depending on the rail position?

Rick Williams: Not enormously. I think if you’ve got a leaders track and you’ve marked the horse that’s going to lead quite short and you really like it then there’s certainly reasons to be giving that a couple more ticks.
The other side, if you’ve got a slow horse and it’s going to lead it doesn’t necessarily mean because it’s a leader’s track it’s going to win. I guess good horses or stand out horses in a race can generally, most of the times overcome moderate issues. Whether it be a moderate bias or moderate block in the run or different things. If it’s a severe bias or if it has a severe check then certainly a lot of horses would struggle to overcome something severe that happens.
It’s just balancing out the ability of the horse. Looking at where it will be in the run, or whatnot and what it has to overcome to win and basically making a judgement call. Is the horse good enough to overcome this issue? Or the fact that the horse, you’ve got it rated on top and it looks really strong and it’s going to have all the favours in the run. It’s how much more do you bonus this horse?

David Duffield: And speaking of positions in the run, with the new database we can run a report and have a look at the lengths behind the leader and the average margin for those winners at Moonee Valley and also depending on where the rail is. How do you incorporate that into the work that you do?

Rick Williams: It’s just nice to know. It’s not really anything that there’s a column for in the spreadsheet or anything like that but it’s just nice to run the report and you get an idea of where the rail is and generally what happens. As the rail gets out further there’s generally not a lot of racing. We’re not dealing with huge samples but certainly there does tend to be patterns and I guess as the rail gets out further at Moonee Valley generally the closer you need to be to the leaders upon settling.

David Duffield: When the rail’s true or close to it, if a horse has raced wide, how do you bonus or otherwise assess that horse as opposed to when the rail’s been out a fair way?

Rick Williams: You just go through the runs and generally you look at the sectional. Even if they’ve ran wide, they’ll either have ran wide quickly or ran wide slow. There will be a section in there of the sectionals where the horse has ran a strong 400. It might be from the 800 to the 400 or the 600 to the 200. Somewhere in there it will either say, “Well the horse was wide and it ran quick wide,” or “It ran slow.” Generally you look for the ones that still ran quick somewhere and they’re the ones you tend to be more favourable towards. As opposed to the ones that were wide but just slow throughout anyway.

David Duffield: If you’re on a horse that’s mid-field or worse, when do you want the jockey to be making the run at Moonee Valley? How early?

Rick Williams: You really don’t want to be that early. Sort of once you come up to the bend is when you probably want to get a cart into the race. I don’t think you really want to be exposed too early because what happens is if you try to come with a run three wide around that bend the bend goes forever and by the time you get to the top of the straight you’ve probably got three or four other horses that have shifted out to look for runs. Before you know it you’re six, seven, eight wide and really no hope. Really you want to be looking for a cart into the race on the end of that bend.
That obviously isn’t always possible but generally that or horses that generally can sneak a run. Not necessarily always on the fence but when they do go that wide it does tend to open up runs for horses that are even well back in the field. They just save an enormous amount of ground. That happens a bit at Moonee Valley also.

David Duffield: We’ll run through a couple of stats that I found in writing an article this week. The first thing was that the form tends to hold up pretty well and again, the shorter end of the market is the most profitable or the least unprofitable, whichever way you look at it. Is it any surprise to you that horses that start favourite and second favourite perform the best?

Rick Williams: Not really. Especially with a bias. If you can identify that it’s a bit leaderish and you’ve got a really quick horse that’s going to get on the speed, they’re pretty good betting opportunities and either of those horses are well found, so that’s not surprising.

David Duffield: One thing that’s a little bit different to a lot of the other tracks that we see was that the inside barriers actually performed better than, well the middle barriers you might say. Barriers one to four as a group actually perform very well, which wouldn’t surprise people that they win a lot of races but it might surprise people that relative to the market they are actually okay. Whereas horses in the middle or the outside in the smaller fields, barriers five, six, seven, eight, they actually under perform.

Rick Williams: I’m not sure exactly why that’s like that but as we said before with the way the track is a lot of the times those horses can get those runs up the inside or they might jump well and lead. As you said a lot of people may look to avoid those horses because you don’t really want to be stuck on the turn behind the leader at Moonee Valley but I guess depending on the different circumstances of the race that’s what we don’t have in the stats. How quick’s the leader going to be? Where’s it going to settle from barrier one etc?
There’s a few other things but certainly the fact that they’re profitable means people may look a bit hard or a bit too much into that aspect of settling on the fence.

David Duffield: Horses higher up in the weight actually under-perform so is there anything you think about the Moonee Valley track that could point toward that? Where horses that are forced to carry a bit of weight might be a bit disappointing as a group?

Rick Williams: I guess if you have to come around that big bend and you’ve got a lot of weight it’s certainly not going to help. Again we don’t know from the stats how many of those did come wide around the bend but that could be an aspect that needs to certainly be considered.
Just the other thing, I guess, there’s probably a fair bit of night racing in that and I see night racing generally on a Friday as a platform where you get your up and coming horses. Like a mid-week meeting. They come from the city, come from the provincials and they’re generally not the best exposed horses on class but have the most upside.
I think that there’s probably a lot of old war horses that have been running around for a while high up in the weights and they may struggle to beat the up and comers.

David Duffield: What about jockeys? We’re not dealing with massive sample sizes here but there’s a few big names that stand out. When you’re looking at a race and putting together the rated prices, do you care about the jockey’s record at that track or is it just more about the feel that you have for whether that jockey and his style suits that horse?

Rick Williams: I guess we just look at how good the jockey is. Looking at say Victoria you’ve got your Vic jockeys so you have a bit of an understanding that they will probably ride there pretty well, more often than not. If you look at say, over the weekend coming up you’ve got Nash Rawiller back from Japan so he’s got to ride around Moonee Valley.
You’ve got Damian Browne down from Queensland who’s a really good jockey but he’s not as experienced at Moonee Valley. You do take mental notes of those sorts of things. At the same time you’ve also got to look at how good the horse is.

David Duffield: There’s a few trainers there that have a reasonable record but I’m not sure if you can glean too much on its own.
What about experience at the track? There really wasn’t much of a difference in terms of what the market expected and what actually happened in that if you’d never started there before you’re slightly above benchmark with only 1% and basically if you had experience at the track you’re 1% below the benchmark so really not a lot either way.

Rick Williams: There’s not a lot either way and I guess you do get some horses that really do love Moonee Valley. I guess you could certainly make a case for them which probably doesn’t show up in the stats. Some horses just love it there. There’s probably a small little group within those two measurements that would stand out but again you’ve got to do the form to get them out. If you’ve got a horse that’s running well and gets the right run and it’s having its first start at Moonee Valley there’s no reason they can’t run well also, as the stats suggest.

David Duffield: The next number is interesting but I’m not sure I’d bet anything based purely on it; in fact I’m sure I wouldn’t. It was interesting whether this will end up regressing to the mean or actually stay the way it is and what I looked at was where horses had had their last start. Other metro tracks was just fine, whether it was Sandown, Moonee Valley, Caulfield. But coming off a Moonee Valley night meeting, for some reason, they perform well below what the market expected.
Can you see any reason behind why that might be the case? Last start Moonee Valley night run and then next start Moonee Valley either day or night?

Rick Williams: I’m not really sure. Unless they may have run well and the market has over bet them because they’ve had that run at Moonee Valley. If it was a Moonee Valley night meeting, I’m just thinking out loud here, and the rail was out, maybe they didn’t handle the tight turn and pulled up a bit sore. I’m not sure. I can’t really give a strong answer on that one.

David Duffield: Yeah, probably just an anomalous result but when I saw how big it was and that’s all the other tracks were slighty above benchmark and then at Moonee Valley night meeting, the last start was -10, so it was just a big differential. Anyway if people want to investigate that further they’re more than welcome to.
The last one was just looking at interstate runners. We did this for a bigger group before in that we looked at all metro tracks. This is just specific to Moonee Valley but horses from north of the border, New South Wales and Queensland perform better than the market expected, while those coming across from South Australia, they’re actually well below benchmark.
How do you try and line them up when they’re coming from interstate? Obviously we’ve got ratings and rankings that should transfer from state to state but how do you go about it when you’ve got an interstate runner?

Rick Williams: You sort of answered. I just run with the system we’ve created. Should have an equal measurement everywhere. You just need to look at things like if they’re coming from north well maybe a lot of people would think that they’ve got to go the Melbourne way for the first time.
They might be a little bit under bet whereas I guess the Adelaide horses run the Melbourne way. I know that a lot of horses that come over are generally well backed from some good stables and there may be a patch in there where they’ve under performed. It’s interesting but I guess you just have to play it on its merits. Some Adelaide horses are good, some aren’t and some north of the border are good and some aren’t. It’s just finding the opportunities.

David Duffield: Exactly right. All right, well we’ll leave it there for now. It’s just meant as a bit of an insight into the Valley and it’s a unique track so hopefully that’s given people a bit of an idea as to how they can approach betting there considering tomorrow night’s Manikato Stakes meeting and then Cox Plate day Saturday.

Rick Williams: Yeah and it looks a good weekend coming up and plenty of racing and hopefully we can get a couple of winners and enjoy the races and not lose any money.

David Duffield: That’s the plan. All right, thanks Rick, cheers.

Rick Williams: Thank you.

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10 tips on avoiding false favourites

by David on October 22, 2014

This week David Duffield chatted with RSN’s Nadia Horne about how to identify false favourites.

Dave discusses the perfect run, stage of preparation, jockeys, trainers, times, horse profiles, barriers and track conditions.

Click here to listen in.

rsn-dd

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Cox Plate Carnival Webinar

by David on October 21, 2014

Our Senior Form Analyst Rick Williams hosted a webinar to discuss:

* The best value runners in Friday night’s Manikato Stakes and Saturday’s Cox Plate
* Our early selections for the Melbourne Cup
* Listener questions that you have about the Spring carnival

The audio replay is now available.

 

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Horses for courses – Moonee Valley

by David on October 21, 2014

With two fantastic Moonee Valley meetings to look forward to this weekend, let’s take a look at the long-term results at this track to assess how well the form holds up.mv-aerial

The following analysis is based on the best of the three totes and the on course Starting Price in all Moonee Valley races since 2008.

Using that criteria makes our benchmark profit on turnover figure -10%.

So the following tables list the differential to that -10% mark.

For example a ‘vs. benchmark’ figure of +10 means that group actually broke even from a punting perspective, while -10 represents a loss on turnover of 20%.

Favourites and second favourites performed above expectations, while the favourite/longshot bias is alive and well:

mv-sp-rank

Inside barriers were the best performing barrier group (relative to market expectations), while middle barriers were clearly overbet.

mv-barrier

Higher weighted horses were slightly disappointing:

mv-weight-rank

Big names like Boss, Rodd, Oliver, Nolen, Rawiller and Dunn feature in the best performing jockeys who had at least 100 rides at the Moonee Valley track:

mv-trainers

The list of most profitable trainers (once again minimum 100 rides) features both larger and mid-level stables:

mv-trainer

Experience at the track appears to be of only minor importance:

mv-starts

It’s interesting to note that runners coming off a Moonee Valley night run struggled next time out:

mv-ls-track

Runners from north of the border exceeded market expectations while SA raiders disappointed:

mv-ls-state

There are many aspects to doing the form and those stats above are just one tiny piece of the pie, but they can be a good starting point for further research and hopefully they have given you some insights into the unique Moonee Valley track.

Good punting
David Duffield

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2014 Melbourne Cup preview

by David on October 21, 2014

By Todd Burmester

Last year’s Melbourne Cup contained one stand out selection. It was obvious many weeks before the race that Fiorente was the likely winner, and that was further confirmed by its excellent effort in The Cox Plate. He got the job done for us 10 days later in The Cup.

I’m not sure this year is quite as black and white as last year, but I don’t think it is that far off.

If you have read other reviews of mine, you’ll know that I was keen on Lucia Valentina winning the Caulfield Cup. Kris Lees has described it as “the one that got away”, Kerrin McEvoy says he wasn’t sure how far Admire Rakti was going to take him into the race, so he went around it and ended up “a bit wide”. All in all, those comments are simply nice ways of saying, pilot error cost the horse the race.

I’ve written previously about my less than favourable opinion of McEvoy. Somehow, he ended up three wide the whole way and back near the tail of the field for a good part of the race. Coming around the turn, he decided to come around Admire Rakti, which then caused Lucia Valentina to be baulked and lose ground at about the 300m mark. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but those are the two crucial parts to the race that I believe cost the horse victory.

The campaign of Lucia Valentina has been faultless the whole way through. Her Tramway stakes win was mind blowing, her second up run was very unlucky when she was caught back on the fence and made late ground, and her Turnbull Stakes win was again top class.

I’ve read a school of thought that doubted her over the 2400m of yesterdays race, which then would infer a doubt over the 3200m at Flemington. I presume this comes from the fact that she was beaten in the Oaks as a three-year-old over the 2400m trip, when set an impossible task of coming from so far back on a wet track. Again that day, she made ground all the way to the line. As for the 3200m in The Melbourne Cup – she just about ran that far in The Caulfield Cup given the run she had!

Four-year-olds have won The Melbourne Cup on 43 occasions. This year, it seems we have a vintage crop of four-year-olds on our hands. Have a look at the deeds so far of Dissident, Trust In A Gust, Sweet Idea and the horse I am focusing on in this piece, Lucia Valentina and you get a feel for what I mean.

It’s pretty clear what I thought of the ride in The Caulfield Cup on Lucia Valentina. The good news is I think there is less chance of that happening in The Melbourne Cup.

I’ve never sat upon a racehorse, but I certainly have watched a race or two and in my observation its less likely that you’ll land a tough run around the bigger Flemington circuit over the 3200m given the long run to the first turn, and less likely that you’ll need to find yourself scouting the outside fence to get a crack at them in the straight. Realistically, the biggest concern in The Melbourne Cup for Lucia Valentina won’t be whether she runs out the trip, but it might be whether she runs into traffic of tired horses falling back through the field that are unable to cope with the 3200m themselves. I’ll let Kerrin McEvoy sort that out, and hope that he does a better job of it than he did in The Caulfield Cup.

Looking at those that may also line up on the first Tuesday of November, I really cannot see a lot of depth this year.

Admire Rakti was obviously impressive in The Caulfield Cup, in particular given that he carried 58kg and also was wide throughout and around the turn.

The Offer is a horse that I think has gotten out past its true odds in the market. He has been good throughout this campaign without winning. His closing sectionals have often been the strongest part of his race, and that was definitely the case in The Caulfield Cup. The types of races he is running and the positions he is finishing in, remind me of Viewed before he won The Cup.

Also out of The Caulfield Cup, Araldo was finishing off nicely. I wouldn’t think he is near the class of the likes of Lucia Valentina or Admire Rakti, but if he ends up in the field with a light weight, he could well be coming good at the right time.

The final chance I can see at this stage is Contributor. Although listed as unlikely at the moment, he could not have been more impressive in The David Jones Cup on Caulfield Cup day, and I would suggest there is a chance he will run in The Lexus Stakes on Derby day, win that race, gain automatic entry to The Cup and be the big betting firmer.

To sum up – The only negative I can find for Lucia Valentina is the jockey, but given the number of positives for the horse I think she can overcome that and win The Cup. Admire Rakti, The Offer, Araldo and Contributor go in for the multiples.

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Caulfield and Randwick reviews – October 18th

by darryn on October 20, 2014

Caulfield review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: Yellowglen Plate (1400m)

1st Sea Spray – Damian Lane
2nd Azkadellia – Michelle Payne
3rd Shacarde – Michael Walker

Sea Spray and Tender were a shade slow but Sea Spray quickly improved to midfield. Devon Princess darted across to lead from an outside alley and Kansas Sunflower moved to second. They kicked away from Shacarde and Bella Capri. Berimbau was next around Sea Spray. Azkadellia jumped okay but was taken back to a clear last. As the field bunched a little and started to fan nearing the turn Azkadellia was taken out where there was a pocket while there was a gaping run towards the inside and behind the eventual winner. Kansas Sunflower challenged Devon Princess on the turn and Shacarde came across their heels to run on. Sea Spray ran up behind the leaders and took an inside run at the 200m. Berimbau loomed up but didn’t go on and Akzadellia was climbing over their backs. Sea Spray hit the lead soon after and it wasn’t until the 100m when Akzadellia finally found a gap and she sprinted very hard to go down narrowly. Shacarde battled on well to grab third from a game Kansas Sunflower while the rest of the field were well beaten. Berimbau was particularly ordinary given the run she had.

Follow: Azkadellia should have romped in. (Click to continue reading…)

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Caulfield Cup Day tips

by David on October 17, 2014

Value – Caulfield R2 N3 Liberation

Highly talented 3yo with form in Sydney around Scissor Kick, Panzer Division and Amicus. Ran off the track up there which cost it and was forced to trial to stewards satisfaction. Was 36 days between runs into the Caulfield Guineas Prelude when a $10 chance and blew up on a fast pace.

Can bounce back here at  a big price and deserves a chance to repeat best ratings which has him well clear of this field.

 Best – Caulfield R6 N3 Sweet Idea

Looks very well placed here and comes through strong form lines. Should be able to roll along up front here and won’t have horses like Trust In  A Gust or Dissident breathing down her neck.  You can also back or save here on Catkins.

Caulfield Cup  – Listen below for a quick summary of each horse and we highlight some value runners.

Bande has since been scratched from the Caulfield Cup and you can hear the reasons why from Racing Victoria’s head vet Dr Brian Stewart.

For full coverage of Caulfield Cup day with our best bets Australia-wide take a look at our tips or ratings membership packages.

 

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Caulfield and Randwick reviews – October 11th

by darryn on October 13, 2014

Caulfield review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: Debutant Stakes (1000m)

1st Of The Brave – Stephen Baster
2nd Miss Idyllic – Michael Walker
3rd Miss Loren – Steven King

Trench Fighter stood there at the start and missed it by a couple of lengths. Miss Idyllic sprung out and went looking for the lead. Reemah and Miss Loren showed pace and Of The Brave gathered pace along the rail and found the front. Cullemy’s Diamond and Stylish Assassin were around midfield and Helford River improved along the fence. Of The Brave was cruising along in front coming to the turn and was held together as Miss Idyllic and Miss Loren loomed up. They kicked away from Cullemy’s Diamond at the top of the straight. Of The Brave responded when asked inside the 200m and drew clear in the closing stages. Miss Idyllic tried hard in second but was no match and Miss Loren held on for third ahead of Cullemy’s Diamond. The latter filly wasn’t a bad effort considering she was very fizzed up behind the gates. Trench Fighter was the only one to make any significant ground charging home and was just touched out of fifth by Schopenhauer who appeared to have every chance. Winner is a half brother to Eloping and looks just as professional.

Follow: Trench Fighter should have finished a lot closer.

Race 2: Thoroughbred Club Stakes (1200m)

1st Earthquake – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd Tawteen – Stephen Baster
3rd More Radiant – Craig Newitt

Tawteen broke cleanly while Earthquake next to her seemed to just knuckle a little, though didn’t lose any ground. They headed to the lead together with Ygrittestuck out three wide. Cristalina Lago landed in the box seat withLondon Lolly on her outside and More Radiant three deep with cover. A couple of lengths to Silversands and Aimee. Tawteen had control and Earthquake was being stoked up well before the turn to stay with her. Ygritte was beaten off and Cristalina Lago couldn’t do any better on the fence. More Radiant peeled out to run on but was giving away a decent start. Tawteen was giving a bit sight and Earthquake only joined her about 150m out before edging away for her first win since the Blue Diamond. Tawteen stuck on well and More Radiant didn’t get any favours in the race but she still made a heap of ground to be close up. London Lolly had every chance and Ygritte battled on after having a tough run. Earthquake did have 59kg and you should never knock a win but she doesn’t look the same horse that she did at two. Perhaps they have caught up to her a bit. Nice effort More Radiant.

Follow: More Radiant is ready to win a similar race.

Race 3: Weekend Hussler Stakes (1400m)

1st Hosting – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd Taddei Tondo – Patrick Moloney
3rd Tango’s Daughter – Craig Newitt

Hosting went straight back to last out of the gates. Turquoise King jumped well from the inside gate and went forward. Alma’s Fury showed gate speed and then Sistine Demon started to roll across but was kept working by Turquoise King. Club Command whipped up to second after being trapped wide and in the leading bunch was Loot ‘N’ Run. Alma’s Fury wound up three deep outside him. Eximius and Tango’s Daughter raced in the clear. Sistine Demon was kept busy in the lead by Club Command and Alma’s Fury crept up three wide to try and join them. Tango’s Daughter got onto his back and Turquoise King had to wait in behind them. Taddei Tondo was tracking Tango’s Daughter and in turn Hosting had his back on the bend. Sistine Demon and Club Command were swallowed up at the 200m by Tango’s Daughter and Alma’s Fury. Turquoise King was badly checked and lost ground. Taddei Tondo and Hosting stormed down the outside and Hosting finished just a bit the better. Tango’s Daughter carted them into the race and her third was a nice improvement second-up. Alma’s Fury was brave after sitting wide. Forget Turquoise King went around, he should have been right in the finish.

Follow: Tango’s Daughter, Turquoise King

Race 4: Schillaci Stakes (1000m)

1st Rubick – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd Platelet – Ben Melham
3rd Overreach – Tommy Berry

Iconic seemed to stumble slightly out of the gates and Rubick was only fair to begin but mustered quickly. Overreach jumped well and showed pace but couldn’t hold Rubick out. Gregers and Platelet were handy while Not Listenin’tome eased to avoid being caught wide. Sessions over raced a bit in second last and Iconic trailed them. Rubick railed through the hold Overreach out and he slipped away on the turn as Overreach was shaken up. Gregers loomed up but didn’t look likely and Platelet was looking for runs between the leaders. Wider Not Listenin’tome couldn’t sprint with them, Sessions was in reverse and Iconic weaved through and started to hit the line well. Rubick was there to be beaten at the 100m but got stronger as the race went on and he was getting away on the line. Too brilliant first-up. Platelet pushed through to grab second from Overreach and the fast-finishing Iconic. Gregers whacked away. Not Listenin’tome wasn’t entirely disgraced as he also made some late ground, assess him next time at 1200m. Sessions disappointed greatly.

Follow: the first three were all resuming and are all open to improvement.

Race 5: Herbert Power Stakes (2400m)

1st Big Memory – Tommy Berry
2nd Signoff – Glen Boss
3rd Let’s Make Adeal – Dwayne Dunn

Fair line out bar Unchain My Heart who was slow and crossed to the fence at the tail. Bonfire had little trouble in finding the lead. Signoff did some work to get up in second place around Sangster and Big Memory. The importRenew raced handy with Waltzing To Win. Protectionist settled midfield on the fence inside Let’s Make Adeal. Lord Van Percy was in the second half. Renew continued his run forward after being caught wide and went up to sit outside Bonfire on the speed and giving Signoff a trail. Not a lot of change in the middle stages though Masked Marvel slid around them to about third at the 1000m. Protectionist was one of the first off the bit back midfield on the fence but at the same time Bonfire was being asked to go in the lead. Big Memory got up on his inside at the 600m. Masked Marvel dropped off and Signoff started his run around him. Waltzing To Win stayed on the fence. Sangster was one paced on the turn and Let’s Make Adeal went around him. Protectionist was badly held up and looking for runs but tended to find the backs of horses going backwards. Big Memory hung on the turn and took Bonfire to the centre of the track and Signoff also had to shift wider. Let’s Make Adeal loomed strongly at the 200m. Big Memory was wayward but kept fighting and he held on from Signoff and Let’s Make Adeal. Protectionist was storming home on the inside once he finally got out and a nice run also from Lord Van Percy. Protest Signoff vs Big Memory for interference in the straight was dismissed.

Follow: Protectionist’s run was huge, should have won easily. He’s a big Melbourne Cup chance.

Race 6: Group 1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m)

1st Fawkner – Nicholas Hall
2nd Criterion – Hugh Bowman
3rd Side Glance – Jamie Spencer

Reasonable line out but Crackerjack King didn’t show any early pace as he did in the Underwood and Sacred Falls was dragged back to last from the outside alley. Dissident and Side Glance were among the best to begin andFawkner made use of a good gate to be handy. Sertorius, Happy Trails and Dear Demi were in the first six before Crackerjack King started to get going around them. Criterion and Foreteller were worse than midfield. Side Glance was allowed to run a bit in the middle stages and he had a couple of lengths over Dissident in the clear. Fawkner had the run of the race. Crackerjack King continued to move forward and made it to third at the 600m before he started to feel the pinch. Fawkner pushed him out of the way to get clear on the turn. Dear Demi stayed on the fence and Happy Trails came around them. Sertorius seemed to lose his position and any chance. Side Glance was taken on by Dissident at the 300m but Fawkner had them covered soon after. Criterion had worked his way through the field and he hit the line very hard, making it tough for Dear Demi to get out from behind Fawkner. Happy Trails and Sacred Falls were down the outside. Fawkner, aided by a perfect run, held off Criterion and Side Glance was game in third. Sacred Falls had a nice trial for the Cox Plate running on for fourth. Happy Trails was okay and Dissident’s run was a lot better than it looked as he bled. Dear Demi gets a pass mark as well.

Follow: Side Glance would take beating in the Mackinnon and Sacred Falls was excellent from a Cox Plate point of view.

Race 7: Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m)

1st Trust In A Gust – Brad Rawiller
2nd Speediness – Hugh Bowman
3rd Desert Jeuney – James Winks

Solicit headed straight for the front from her wide alley and got there pretty comfortably. Trust In A Gust landed in a nice spot second with Escadoinside him. Arabian Gold was also able to find a trail. Desert Jeuney, Tristram’s Sun and Akavoroun, who was a bit slow but worked around them, were next. Solicit rolled along in the lead and Trust In A Gust stayed in her slipstream. Akavoroun moved up third three wide around Arabian Gold and Escado. No moves from the back and many were being ridden along before the turn. Trust In A Gust loomed alongside Solicit on the turn and went for home a long way out. Akavoroun was under pressure but responding and Desert Jeuney came off his back to run on. Escado battled and Speediness was weaving through the pack. Behind them Arabian Gold dropped off, she pulled up with a problem, and Rhythm To Spare and Guest Of Honour were running on fairly. Trust In A Gust was a sitting shot but he kept going and posted yet another courageous win. Speediness continues to be denied a good win but he ran well again and Desert Jeuney ran out of his skin for third just ahead of a luckless Akavoroun. Rhythm To Spare charged late to be in that bunch and Bull Point and Escado weren’t far away. Solicit weakened and Guest Of Honour wasn’t a bad run after getting way too far back.

Follow: there’s a win in Speediness and Akavoroun through the carnival.

Race 8: Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m)

1st Amicus – Hugh Bowman
2nd Traveston Girl – Damian Browne
3rd Sabatini – James McDonald

Lumosty and Go Indy Go were taken back to the tail and that was pretty much the end of their chances. Amicus crossed to the fence quickly then allowed Traveston Girl to take up the running. Sabatini had the box seat withPickin’ Time outside her. Bring Me The Maid and Afleet Esprit were the next pair. Traveston Girl led clearly midrace with Amicus left to do the chasing. Pickin’ Time moved to third around Sabatini and Bring Me The Maid had every chance. Traveston Girl tried to kick away around the turn but Amicus was closing in and they were a couple clear of Sabatini getting off the fence. Bring Me The Maid made a dash while Tahni Dancer made some ground from well back. Amicus got to the front at the 100m and just edged away to score from a gallant Traveston Girl. Sabatini had her chance but also ran well for third ahead of Bring Me The Maid. Even effort Tahni Dancer as nothing made ground. Go Indy Go had no hope back there with the race dominated on the speed.

Follow: none in particular.

Race 9: Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m)

1st Shooting To Win – James McDonald
2nd Rich Enuff – Michael Rodd
3rd Wandjina – Dwayne Dunn

Rich Enuff jumped well and crossed to lead after about 200m. Almalad, who was away well but took time to gather speed, booted forward to sit outside him and Stingray and Moonovermanhattan trailed them. Shooting To Winsplit Zebulon and Looks Like The Cat in midfield. Lucky Tom and Zululand were followed by Kumaon inside Merion. Wandjina was second last and Chivalry trailed them. Rich Enuff was kept at it by Almalad and Looks Like The Cat made a line of three a fair way out. Shooting To Win had his back as Stingray struggled to go with them. Merion went very wide on the turn and Kumaon got a dream run through the middle. Rich Enuff sprinted away from Almalad on the corner but he’d worked very hard and Shooting To Win was setting out after him. Moonovermanhattan was very one paced and Kumaon and Wandjina were running on out wide. Shooting To Win stuck the head in front at the 100m and while Rich Enuff tried hard to kick back the tough run told on him and he was narrowly denied. Wandjina continued his inconsistent form to finish third ahead of Kumaon. Chivalry and Merion were next but were never in the race. Game win by Shooting To Win but all the figures will show Rich Enuff’s run was enormous.

Follow: none in particular

Race 10: Sprint Series Final (1200m)

1st Griante – Dwayne Dunn
2nd Girl Guide – Craig Williams
3rd Shamal Wind – Nick Hall

Griante showed speed from a wide gate but couldn’t cross as Chiquada, Danestroem and Brilliant Bisc kicked up inside her. Girl Guide was away with them. Soosa Rama, Fare Well and Coronation Shallan were in a bunch behind the speed with Double Dee, Gig eased back after jumping nicely and Shamal Wind settled last. Brilliant Bisc was running them along in front and Danestroem was first under pressure before the turn. Chiquada moved up to challenge but also hit a wall early in the straight. Fare Well ran up behind the leader and Girl Guide was stuck behind a tiring horse. Griante, who tracked Chiquada, peeled out and she sprinted quickly. Shamal Wind also started her usual sharp sprint from the back. Griante took over from Brilliant Bisc inside the 200m as Girl Guide got clear to chase her. Shamal Wind kept coming and Fare Well had her chance on the rails and Danestroem found a second wind and battled on. Griante had the momentum up and was able to stave off Girl Guide and Shamal Wind for a solid win. Danestroem wasn’t bad but not quite up to the class. Coronation Shallan was okay late first-up.

Follow: stick with Girl Guide.

Specials from the meeting: Protectionist, More Radiant, Turquoise King, Sacred Falls.

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Randwick review by Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st Pierrette Winona Costin
2nd Sebring Sun Brenton Avdulla
3rd Flamboyant Lass Tim Clark

The two-year-olds were first to kick off the card and Sebring Son and Feast For Eyes were bad to begin and went back to the rear of the field, and Sebring Sun was also slow to begin. Pierrette was away well and led them up from Flamboyant Lass and Ideal Express out three wide. They turned with Pierrette in front and as they topped the rise it still led, with Sebring Sun having made up a lot of ground after its bad start. They went to the line fighting it out, with Pierrette holding on but Sebring Sun was clearly the run of the race, getting close at the end, even after racing greenly in the straight and running out.

Follow: Sebring Sun

Race 2

1st Order Of The Sun Thomas Huet
2nd Grand Marshall Glyn Schofield
3rd Best Case Brenton Avdulla

Foreign Prince was the best to begin and Best Case was hunted up to try and go with him. Grand Marshall went around Foreign Prince and then Order Of The Sun went around it to take up the front running position. Order Of The Sun took it up by a couple into the back from Grand Marshall with the same break back to Foreign Prince back in third, with Best Case ending up fourth back on the fence. Order Of The Sun set a decent pace throughout and had a break as the turned for home. When they topped the rise he was still in front and kicked away from Grand Marshall, and Best Case was struggling to make up ground out wide. Order Of The Sun stretched its lead in the run to the line and won by about three from Grand Marshall with Best Case working its way into third about the same margin away but never looking like a winning chance.

Follow: None to follow

Race 3

1st Slightly Sweet Kathy O’Hara
2nd Wine Tales Tim Clark
3rd Careless Winona Costin

Super Willie was best to begin and leg from Careless with Good Project caught out wide. Super Willie slowed up in front with Careless moving up outside of it, and that meant Good Project was caught three wide and trying to restrain back to find a position, but it failed to do so. Sunforce was getting a nice run in behind the leader. When they came around the turn and up the rise, Super Willie still had it, with Careless trying to get on terms, and Slightly Sweet was putting in a run. Inside the furlong marker Slightly Sweet tackled them and went home the better to win from Wine Tales that finished very well down the outside and Careless that kept battling on for third.

Follow: Wine Tales

Race 4

1st Pythagorean Blake Shinn
2nd Black Revolver Ty Angland
3rd Paederos Kathy O’Hara

Glacial Age and Landlocked were both slow to begin. Paederos led from Shout To The Top early on until Pythagorean moved up to sit outside the leader, which mean Pythagorean took a sit in third. Golden Aro was caught wide behind them. Around the turn Paederos and Pythagorean still had it and they put a couple of lengths on them as they came up the rise. Inside the 200m mark these two were still well in front and Pythagorean got the better of Paederos and it was left to Black Revolver to flash late, but it was too late and Pythagorean held on for the win. Landlocked also finished well.

Follow: Landlocked

Race 5

1st Aomen Blake Shinn
2nd Monton Taylor Marshall
3rd Charlie Boy Josh Parr

Riva De Lago was slow to begin, and Disciple also went back at the start. Aomen went to the front early with Charlie Boy moving up out wide. Up to the 800m mark Aomen still had it, with Charlie Boy happy to sit a length off it. Monton and Whittington were getting nice runs behind the speed. Up to the turn, Charlie Boy moved as bit closer to Aomen and the field packed up behind them. As they topped the rise Aomen kicked away from them. In behind them Whittington was trying to work into the clear but perhaps not going well enough. In the run to the line Monton did well to chase the leader, but realistically nothing was going to catch Aomen who did well to win by just under a length from Monton who ran a good race as he often does. Sysmo came to the line nicely and might be worth following.

Follow: Sysmo

Race 6

1st Hampton Court Josh Parr
2nd First Seal Jason Collett
3rd Sweynesse Blake Shinn

Panzer Division was ridden to lead and did so with Valentia working up outside of it as they went to the back straight, which mean Press Report settled third. First Seal was then in fourth and that meant Sweynesse was able to follow up behind it. The pace seemed to slow a bit mide race, so then when they came to the 600m mark Swaynesse was off around them and First Seal tried to go with it. As they came around the turn Panzer Division was still in front but Sweynesse looked to have run past First Seal. Up the rise those two looked to have the race between them, and were still it front at the 200m mark, but Hampton Court was starting to run on behind them. With 100m to go, Hampton Court hit the front and was coming home by far the better and ran away from the two fancied runners for an impressive win. First Seal managed to fight back and beat Sweynesse to the line and they gapped Press Report who finished fourth.

Follow: First Seal

Race 7

1st Neena Rock Ty Angland
2nd Estonian Princess Brenton Avdulla
3rd Danesiri Taylor Marshall

A pretty average start with Gypsy Diamond missing it and going back to last of all and then beind pushed to try and make up ground. Estonian Princess led pretty easily with Bouzy Rouge moving up into second. Chintz was caught out wide and then moved out outside of the leader, which gave Bouzy Rouge the sit along with Soapy Star. The favourite Neena Rock got a nice run in fifth. Up to the turn, Estonian Princess who had support in betting still had it from Chintz with Neena Rock striding up three wide and as it did so, got into a bumping duel with Bouzy Rouge. Up the rise, Estonian Princess had it but Neena Rock looked the obvious danger on the outside. Inside the furlong Neena Rock hit the front, but Estonian Princess wouldn’t be done with and fought all the way to the line, but Neena Rock was too strong and got a deserved win after running very well recently. These two put a gap in the rest of the field. Danesiri at big odds came from the back of the field between horses to finish third, which was a good effort.

Follow: Danesiri

Race 8

1st Boss Lane Taylor Marshall
2nd Telepathic Sam Clipperton
3rd Atmospherical Tim Clark

Timeless Prince was slow to begin and went back to the rear in the last. Boss Lane was quick to begin along with Atmospherical and these two ran to the front early. Atmospherical crossed, and then Boss Lane moved up outside of it at the half way mark, which mean Maximilian and Law got nice runs behind the speed. Around the turn and up the rise Atmospherical had it, but Boss Lane looked to be traveling the better and at the furlong mark he was asked for the effort and took the lead and then did enough in the run to the line to win by a length. Telepathic worked its way through on the inside and kept coming to the line for second and should be followed.

Follow: Telepathic

Specials from the meeting: Sebring Sun, Wine Tales, Telepathic

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