Rosehill review (November 21st)

by Champion Picks on November 25, 2015

Race 1

1st – Jiayuguan – Tye Angland
2nd – Hudson County – Jess Taylor
3rd – Quick Strike – Glyn Schofield

They raced over the mile and a half in the first and Four Carat caused some trouble in the gates prior to the jump and then didn’t look to begin all that well and went back to near last.  Hudson County strode clear at the post the first time and had about a three length break from Zatopaz, with Quick Strike settling nicely in third.  Hudson County rolled along in front, with Zatopaz cutting the margin to about a length mid race, but there was no change in the order.  At the 600m mark, Zatopaz looked in trouble as it was being pushed along to try and keep up with the leader.  Hudson County still had it at the furlong pole, with Jiayuguan looking the fresh horse on the scene down the outside.  Quick Strike was battling on ok, but wasn’t quite getting to the leaders.  In the final bounds Jiayuguan picked up Hudson County, who very nearly pulled off an all the way win.  Quick strike took third in a close finish for that spot.

Follow: Hudson County

Race 2

1st – Yankee Rose – Jason Collett
2nd – Good Standing – Glyn Schofield
3rd – Julius Caesar – Kerrin McEvoy

The two-year-olds did their thing in race two of the day and it was a pretty good line out with a number of them looking for the front.  Good Standing took it up with Pittsburgh moving up on the outside into second spot.  Jericho was third on the fence getting a nice run with Julius Caesar outside of it.  Bravissimo who was sent out favourite looked in trouble before the bend as it was urged along.  Good Standing gave a good kick early in the straight and was still going well in front inside the furlong pole.  Inside the 100m mark, Good Standing still looked the likely winner and it appeared Yankee Rose who was winding up strongly would run a good second.  In the final part however, Yankee Rose really picked up the bit and attacked the line and got up to beat Good Standing in the shadows of the post. Julius Caesar ran third.  Bravissimo dropped right out to run second last in a very disappointing effort.

Follow: Yankee Rose

Race 3

1st – Torgersen – Jason Collett
2nd – Perfect Dare – Regan Bayliss
3rd – Feast For Eyes – James McDonald

Most Exalted was slow to go and went back to a clear last.  Feast For Eyes had plenty of pace and took it up with Perfect Dare on its outside and Hamish Lad ridden with some urgency to go up and attack the pair in front before easing for a trail.  Once they sorted themselves out, Feast For Eyes had it clearly over Perfect Dare.  Axion and Hamish Lad were back in third and fourth spots.  Before the turn, Feast For Eyes was looking to be off with the prize and had about three lengths on them once they straightened.  He was kicking quite well inside the 300m mark with Perfect Dare now chasing out after him, and not a lot more looking like they were making any ground.  Inside the 100m mark Feast For Eyes and Perfect Dare were still fighting it out, with Torgersen really getting mobile up along the fence.  In the final part, Perfect Dare claimed Feast For Eyes who weakened, and Torgersen nailed Perfect Dare right on the post in what was a good finishing effort.  Most Exalted made some ground from the back after its poor start.

Follow: None to follow

Race 4

1st – Bitburg – Jay Ford
2nd – Unknown Destiny – Kerrin McEvoy
3rd – Danish Lace – Kathy O’Hara

Nights On Fire was slow to begin in race four.  There looked to be decent pace on with Captain Shazam taking it up from Bitburg.  Noble Joey was out wide in the early part as was Ansoitiswritten.  At about the 600m mark Ocean Grand got a bad check and dropped back and Nights On Fire copped the washup of that.  Into the straight and up to the 300m mark, Bitburg strode to the front and hadn’t yet been asked for the supreme effort.  He was soon after, and put up about a length from a wall of chasers.  In the charge for the minors, Unknown Destiny claimed second and Danish Lace along the inside ran third, but ultimately Bitburg just kept fighting on and scored a good win.  Andsoitiswritten and Noble Joey were good runs in fourth and fifth after being wide.

Follow: Ansoitiswritten, Noble Joey

Race 5

1st – Sebrina – Brenton Avdulla
2nd – Gambler’s Blues – Winona Costin
3rd – Dance Of Heroes – James McDonald

They jumped in a pretty good line from the 1900m mark in race five and they took a while to sort themselves out with White Dove on the fence, Della’s Diamond outside of it and Song And Laughter three wide on the track and eventually racing to the front with Dance Of Heroes striding around the outside into second.  Della’s Diamond and White Dove then took the trail in third and fourth.  The pace looked ok, and the order didn’t change until they were into the straight.  Dance Of Heroes struck the front at the furlong with Gambler’s Blues coming after it and Sebrina putting in strongly down the outside.  Gambler’s Blues and Sebrina fought it out in the last part with Sebrina getting the upper hand over Gambler’s Blues who wanted to run in a bit in the last part of the race.  Those two basically streeted the rest with Dance Of Heroes running third in what was not a bad effort.

Follow: Dance Of Heroes

Race 6

1st – Gamblestown – Sam Clipperton
2nd – Wine Tales – Glyn Schofield
3rd – Better Not Blue – Jess Taylor

Eloping as expected ran to the front in race six from Perfect Weapon before Medcaut went into second with High Esteem on its outside and three wide and Perfect Weapon taking a trail on the fence.  They were into the straight before you knew it and Eloping went for home and had a decent break on them.  Perfect Weapon was making good use if its nice run in transit to do the chasing with God’s In Him winding up also.  Whilst that was going on, Gamblestown came with a strong run on the fence and Better Not Blue was running on strongly down the outside.  In the final part, Gamblestown sprinted sharply and got away from God’s In Him who looked anchored a bit under the weight.  Wine Tales did as it does and flashed home into second, but all credit was with the winner here for a pretty impressive win.

Follow: Gamblestown

Race 7

1st – Festivity – Koby Jennings
2nd – La Speciale – Sam Clipperton
3rd – Cat’s Wish – Mitchell Bell

All Cerise was slow to go in race seven and went back to last.  Festivity from out wide built its momentum and went across to lead which took Shazza’s Bubbles across with it to race in second spot.  All Salsa and Magic Of Dreams got nice runs just behind the speed in third and fourth.  Without A Shadow was caught three deep.  Into the straight, Festivity looked to have been rated well in the lead and still had a good break with many of its rivals being urged along.  Up to the furlong Festivity had gapped them and the race was only on for the minor placings.  La Speciale put in the best finish to take second with Cat’s Wish running third.  Hetty Heights just peaked on its run late after looking like it would run second with 100m to go.  The winner put in a good effort and takes all credit here after a nice ride from Koby Jennings.

Follow: Hetty Heights

Race 8

1st – Fiftyshadesofgrey – James McDonald
2nd – Palazzo Publico – Jay Ford
3rd – Freeze The Charges – Jess Taylor

Freeze The Charges has plenty of pace and showed it today and had about a three length lead mid race.  Sports Edition was in second and Oh So Adorable was in third spot.  Le Cordon Bleu was outside of it in fourth.  Inside the 300m mark, Freeze The Charges had three or four lengths to spare, but had gone hard in front.  It still had a good break inside the furlong, but there were plenty now putting in their finishing efforts to chase it down.  Palazzo Publico and Fiftyshadesofgrey were the two finishing best and Fiftyshadesofgrey was on the one who got the money in a busy finish.  All of the first three horses ran very well here and can win races.  Londehero back in fifth also thundered home.

Follow: Freeze The Charges

Race 9

1st – Cauthen’s Power – James McDonald
2nd – Heavens Above – Winona Costin
3rd – Mary Lou – Josh Parr

It was a bit of an average start, in particular for Get On The Grange who came out a clear last.  Cape Crusader was first out and led but didn’t cross them initially.  Once it did cross, Siegfried moved up into second on the outside.  The pace looked pretty good and Leonforte was back in third spot a few lengths astern.  The two early leaders still had it at the top of the straight but did look out of tickets, although the chasers were also not making a great impression.  Cape Crusader managed to get the better of Siegfried, but at the furlong, Cauthen’s Power had built its momentum and sailed away in front to win clearly from Heaven’s Above who finished very well into second place.  Mary Lou ran third and there was a clear gap back to a line of horses who finished fourth to seventh.  Cape Crusader will be a fitter horse for its first up run and should be followed.

Follow: Cape Crusader

Specials from the meeting: Yankee Rose


A sports betting prediction system with some very bold claims and big plans:


Byron Rogers was on the podcast in 2014 and it was refreshing to discuss his efforts in quantifying both breeding and type when identifying yearlings to purchase.

That discussion is well worth a listen, but if you want the super-simplified summary of how he tries to find Group performers:
(1) Young-ish sire and dam
(2) Fast dam
(3) Good heart, body type and DNA
(4) Raised on a suitable farm
(5) Sent to an excellent trainer

Byron is back this week to talk about all that’s happened since then.

Punting Insights

  • Why breeding a stayer is so difficult
  • Why non-stayers can win the Oaks
  • How the trainer effect is often under-estimated
  • Why their success tends to be at the ‘edges’ of the horse population
  • How and why the model gets smarter every 6 months
  • The machine learning software he (and the NY Yankees) use
  • How some of this can be applied to the betting market

Today’s Guest:
Byron Rogers

>> Click here to read the transcript

Dave Duffield: I was chatting to you last week to come on the show, but you had a nice weekend.

Byron Rogers: Yeah we had the filly Indarra for Phil Sly we’d purchased as a yearling out in New Zealand at Karaka for 150 thousand and she broke her maiden in good style in a stakes race which is obviously the best way you want to do it with a Filly.

Dave Duffield: And so, we’ll speak in general terms as we chat but specifically for her, what appealed when you’re going through the yearling catalogue and then also doing the various tests and inspections that you do.

Byron Rogers: I think the main thing with her was, she’s by Stravinsky who obviously hasn’t had a lot of good horses recently, he’s been a very good sire but he hasn’t in more recent times hasn’t had a lot of good runners but when you physically looked at her and Phil Sly was pretty specific about wanting to get fillies that were going to run to ten furlongs.
He likes horses that can try and get a mile to ten furlongs and you know he has got a lot of luck with horses like Mosheen and those sorts of horses. So he was very specific about what he was trying to get to. When we looked at her physically she didn’t look like a one dimensional horse. She was very much like her broodmare sire, like a Zabeel and you probably see that when she’s at the races you know she does have that Zabeel attitude to her. But physically she’s a well-balanced filly and we just thought she fit the bill and when… Obviously when we do what we do in terms of looking at the genetics, DNA markers in relation to muscle fibre type she had the right sort of balance for what we see to be a horse that would get the ten furlongs.
More importantly she also had the cardiovascular capacity. She has got a good sized cardio and so a Filly like her, for us, stood out. We did have to pay 150 thousand which was a decent price for a Stravinski filly at the time and she has worked out. I mean she was a bit unlucky, we probably thought she was going to be a Filly that would come to the races and be competitive in a VRC Oaks because what we find is that an early in their 3 year old year the genuine stayers are actually a little bit behind the horses that aren’t genuine stayers in terms of…. You can win an Oaks with a filly that actually doesn’t really sort of stay a mile and a half given a VRC Oaks. They can be milers that get there by the fact that they’re more mature and more forward and we thought she was a filly like that but unfortunately she got an ulcer under her tongue we sort of had to back off her. It was a bit of a blessing in disguise we sort of got her going at the tail end but she’s a filly that will end up getting to ten furlongs whether she gets to the mile and a half in the Autumn remains to be seen.
The other horses tend to catch up to you there so that’s the new challenge, just to see how Robert Smerdon handles it.

Dave Duffield: So Indarra is one example, but just going back to the last time you were on the show, to summaris in layman’s terms I’d say what you guys do is you are trying to quantify both breeding and type but the recipe is often young parents, fast mum, good heart and body type, the right DNA, raised on a suitable farm…and you’re trying to buy at the right price and send it to an excellent trainer.

Byron Rogers: You’ve simplified the complex there very easily!

Dave Duffield: Well our last discussion was quite complex, I really enjoyed it.

Byron Rogers: Yeah, I think the main thing you’ve hit on there which is true is the trainer effect is quite large. One of the things I’ve said to a number of people we work with… You know they say I’ve got this horse and I ask who’s it going to be trained by? People underestimate… That’s the first thing I think that people underestimate. What you do, in terms of, who you give the horse to actually has a very large impact on the outcome. I think the trainer effect is underestimated by a lot of people. I think you’ve actually… You are in the industry and want to be successful there’s a reason why the really successful trainers have a lot of horses in work because they can, not just extract the best out of all horses but they can certainly maximise the really good horses and that’s what you want to be able to do.
But I think that a lot of the simple things we look for… In some ways Indarra was a little bit of a reverse of what we look for in that Stravinskiy was an older stallion and this was a slightly older mare. Again, when we get in there and we start to look at the DNA markers and say okay, you know, what is this horse in terms of its genotype and does what we look for in terms of cardiovascular capacity match up with that?
One of the things we see a lot of is horses with sprinting cardios that are distance horses or vice-versa. So we see a lot of horses that say, okay this horse should be 6-8 furlong horse and its got a cardio like a two mile jumper or its the other way around. We see a lot of horses that are supposed to be distance horses but just don’t have the cardiac capacity to get that far in high competition. So we’re marrying that all together in one database.
We’re up to 7 and a half thousand horses now so we’ve got quite a large database with a lot of outcomes. We’re able to see those things fairly quickly I will say that we’re probably getting better as we go along at the edges of the population. So if you sort of look at the population and said OK well precocious early 2 year old sprinters that are on one end and later maturing 4 year old distance horses are on the other well we’re actually very good on those two edges. Where the middle part is… Which is those horses that are three year olds that might run as… to ten furlongs or something. They’re not as easy as the edges and I think the reason for that is, we can find horse where they’ve got real physiological advantage. So if you’re talking about an early two year old like Fontiton and we had a filly Motown Lil running the fourth in the stakes race on Saturday as well and she was a bit unlucky in that race. But they have genetic markers which sort of say that they’re going to be sprinters but they’ve also got the advantage of a very fast, early maturing cardio which is easy to train and that gives them at particular pockets of time earlier on in their career, they get to the track easier, they get to train harder and they can respond to training better. So we’re very good at finding those horses with various points of physiological advantage. On the flip-side of that you’ve got sort of a horse like Keen Ice, who up here in America I worked with the guys who bought him and he was one of the few horses that has beaten American Pharaoh, he beat him in the Travers but if he’s in Australia he’d be a two mile horse, he’s a definite stayer so, you’ve got these ends of the population which we think are very good at and as we go along we keep seeming to learn.

Dave Duffield: And so, with the edges of the population as you talk about it, it probably has some betting applications in that you guys know what your strengths are and can utilise that. It’s probably similar from a punting perspective – people should know where they’re edge lies and then be able to maximize it.

Byron Rogers: Yeah, again it’s no different to as you say a handicapper or punter, my brother for a while was playing professional poker and they know what hands they play well and what they don’t play well. I’m sure there are punters listening to your show here that know that they’re very good at trifecta handicapping or they know that they’re very good at different bet types and under different bet conditions i.e. they know that they’re no good in the wet or whatever. It’s no different. We just have a lot of data and we use machine learning languages, we use a program which Microsoft use which is in Xbox it is in Bing, the New York Yankees use it for their analytics.
We use that program to, when we update results so, like if we had Fontiton she was an unraced yearling. Now that we know what she is, the database learns off her and says okay well I know, you know, it basically confirms she rated well for us and confirms its rating because we’ve updated her results so, yes she was a superior runner.
Each time we do that, we learn a little bit more and the database starts to get tighter and tighter and we start to sort of be really able to find horses and work out why they’re good horses and I think you know that’s something that as a punter you should be doing that anyway you should be learning too. Why you make mistakes and where you make them and try not to make them again.

Dave Duffield: So, you mentioned the machine learning from the Yankees, Bing, yourself, I’m sure I’ll be asked this questions so what is the software?

Byron Rogers: It’s a program called Azure ML (machine learning) you can go online and look it up. It’s free to use to a certain level and its got a whole lot of different modules you can stick on there and test out your data and it’s very much plug and play and actually the good thing from my viewpoint is that it puts out an automated web service. So if I want to say, get a whole lot of data and just ping it up against the web service and automatically find out answers, well that’s what it does. Anytime we get a horse that we test, I literally put all the data in press calculate results and it runs the data points up against the API and it returns back the score that, which is based on, you know, all those previous 7500 horses it comes back with a score instantaneously.
There’s a whole lot of other machinelearning options like Rapid Midner and Big ML that you could use but that’s the one we found to be the best for our means and it’s certainly helping us get closer and closer to what we would like to be buying.

Dave Duffield: So every 6 months you’re feeding the new data in and re-testing your original hypothesis or assumptions. So basically you’re expecting to be more and more successful over time.

Byron Rogers: Yeah, every year we bought 12 horses in that first crop for Matchem Racing and two of them are already stakes winners so that’s one out of 6. We think there’s probably another two there that are probably stakes level and whether they get to that or not… Even if only one of them did that would be three out of 12. When you consider that the industry average is about one out of ten being… And that’s a good result, one out of ten being a stakes winner, to get three out of twelve if it happens that way is a very good result but I think going forward, we were underbidder on Capitalist as a yearling and, you know, James Harron bought the horse and he, he came up straight afterwards and said I thought I paid too much for a Written Tycoon then I saw you guys were the underbidders on it.
We’re happy with where the program is sort of helping us to find these horses we still do a lot of work on the physical side of stuff with Merrick Staunton and Robert obviously looking at a lot of horses and we’re doing some work with David Hayes and Jason out there at Lindsay Park so there’s still a fair bit of horsemanship to it. You don’t completely rely on the data but what the data can do is, tell you where you’re not to go and where you should really be strong and when we find one that we really want, we strap on and get as much capital behind us to buy the horse.

Dave Duffield: And, has a lot of that recent analysis or updates been focused on sprinters?

Byron Rogers: Yeah, its been one of those things where we’ve done the most recent research we’ve done is to do with variation in muscle fibre types. We’ve had a look at alot of differences between elite sprinters and non-elite sprinters. Sort of the original work that us and other companies to do genetic testing on was on a chip that had 70 thousand markers across the horse genome. Well just earlier this year they released one with 670 thousand markers so we’ve used that to specifically look at sprinters and say OK well if you take the group of horses that are elite sprinters what is the specific differences between them as a group.?
I think the reason we did that mainly was because about 50% of the population in Australia, in terms of yearling population, commercial yearling population ends up being sprinters in genetic terms. They’re very high on type two muscle fibre so we basically said well look, if half the population there in Australia is sprinters and this is a totally different conversation we could have as to why that means we can’t produce decent stayers in Australia but if half the population is sprinters then we really need to know everything we can possibly know about sprinters.
We know why certain sprinters will have different cardio types and what that means but we tie that into the genetics and some biomechanical features and we get a holistic view of it all and we get a much closer and richer view of what actually takes to be a good sprinter. We’ve just literally finished that research in the last month and that’ll be something that we’re using at the Magic Millions and going forward with clients that we’re going to be dealing with over the yearling sales series.
Only because from our viewpoint that’s where the money is. If you’ve got a Golden Slipper winner or you’ve got a horse that wins a good race down the straight at Flemington or one of those races you’ve got a very much, an elite horse in the viewpoint of many breeders and owners in Australia. We just took that view that that was an important aspect for us to focus on. We really worked hard at working out what makes a good sprinter.
The other flip-side, the reason for that that is also, even though we’re very good… I think, very good at long distance stayers I think the further you go out in distance the harder it gets in some ways until you get to that part where they’re really long distance horses. The reason that is, for one example, the horses, say when they’re galloping they have a one to one stride to inspiration.
So when they’re breeding, well their stride and their breath is the same so with a… As the horses get out in distance you want further and further for them to have longer strides and that sort of stuff and having enough speed. But the problem there is if you’ve got a slight biomechanical inefficiency or something that, you know, you don’t have quite as strong a cardio, everything can go wrong and it compounds in every stride.
So we just found that sprinters and sprinter miles are much easier in terms of being able to sit down and reference out as to why certain genotypes… What they need to be good horses with certain genotypes. Now we’ve got a database getting in the thousands we can start to really see where populations fit and get a very clear idea as to what makes them tick.

Dave Duffield: So, you mentioned earlier about some horses from the work you do can be strong, certain aspects as a sprinter and then other indications suggest they’ll be a stayer. Do they end up as milers or neither or slow or…

Byron Rogers: It’s a complex thing to make simple, but if you miss the target on the distance horse. Like, if you’ve got a horse that genetically has a higher proportion of type 1 muscle fibre as opposed to the type 2 sprinting muscle (so they’ve got very much oxidative distance muscle fiber) with those horses if they just have a slight inefficiency in one thing, so, if their cardio is not quite big enough, not quite strong enough, if they’re leg length isn’t quite the right way and they’ve sort of having to lift their knees rather than stretching out from their ankles, you end up with a very slow horse basically because of the fact that there is a compounding effect.
But when you get them right like we did, say with Keen Ice up here in America, they’re very good, they’re Group 1 level horses. I think that breeding a stayer is very difficult and it’s just as hard to buy a stayer and people that go to the yearling sale and say, I’m going to buy a stayer, I think that’s a very admirable attempt but I think it’s really hard to do consistently like a guy.
Bart Cummings who could come and buy stayers, a lot of stayers, but I think it was more not just his eye for looking for a horse but more that he could train them. More that he could really train a stayer well rather than being able to consistently buy them. Stayers are very difficult to find but when you do find them they… The good ones stand out a little bit more than the average.

Dave Duffield: So, you talk about Bart Cummings or trainers in general because you did mention the importance of the trainer effect. How much does that vary depending on the type of horse you’re sending them too. So, would you have a different shortlist of trainers for a sprinter than you would for a stayer?

Byron Rogers: Every trainer likes to think they can train every horse well, I think there are only a few trainers that can actually do that. Like obviously, we have horses with Robert Smerdon and I think Robert’s’ a trainer that trains horses that win Blue Diamonds and he can train horses to win steeplechase races and the Sydney Cup and all sorts of things like that. So he can train the full spectrum.
But there are very few trainers like that. I think that the vast percentage of trainers, the way they’re trained in Australia in terms of the ‘5 home 2’ or the ‘4 home 2’ type training where you’re just letting them squeeze up the last two furlongs…that lends itself to sprint genotypes so I think that a lot of the trainers will find that’s why there’s probably 50 per-cent of the population in Australia have got sprint genotypes because that’s what generally… It might be a bit of a chicken and egg situation but that’s generally what trainers find easier to train in Australia because of the way that they train them and where they train them. I think that really good trainers can adapt.
You’d sit there and say, well Darren Weir hasn’t had an early 2yo and then he comes out with an early 2yo this year, he’s obviously thinking about how he can adapt his training and come to that. For the average trainer, who hasn’t had the experience either producing a stayer or a classic horse. I think it’s that much easier for them to train a sprinter and I think that you can find those horses a lot easier for them to win good races with.

Dave Duffield: Excellent, well we’ll leave it there for now Byron. Now guests on the show are a bit like my kids, I’m not allowed to have a favourite, but what I will say is I learn something each time you come on the show so I appreciate your time and we will definitely check in with you again in 2016.

Byron Rogers: All right, thanks Dave, keep well.

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Sandown and Rosehill reviews

by Champion Picks on November 16, 2015

Sandown review

Race 1: Santa’s Magical Kingdom Stakes (1000m)

1st Jackson – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd Soviet Secret – Chris Parnham
3rd Emphatically – Michelle Payne

After a bit of a battle Sweet Varden held the lead on the inside of Perpetual Crisis and Preemptivethree out. Even wider was Emphatically while Soviet Secret followed the leader. Behind her was Missrockwho was hard ridden in the early stages and not settling. Sweet Varden gave a bit of a kick as she was challenged in the straight with Perpetual Crisis on her outside and Soviet Secret getting up on the fence. Emphatically was still coming further out and Jackson, who tracked her in the run, started his move. Preemptive couldn’t go on while Motown Lil and Los Cabos were in the group closing on the leaders. Just as Soviet Secret hit the lead in the last 50m Jackson grabbed her and proved a little too strong. Emphatically was game after doing all the work in a close third while Sweet Varden and Motown Lil weren’t far off. Missrock was among the tailenders after never looking comfortable in the run. The winner had trialled okay and looked a bit on the raw side so he’s probably got a bit of upside long term.

Follow: Jackson might be handy, Emphatically’s run was huge.

Race 2: City Of Greater Dandenong Handicap (1400m)

1st Indarra – Mark Zahra
2nd Mihalic – Luke Currie
3rd Antelucan – James McDonald

A bit of pressure early as Irada gave up the inside running with Navita, Russian Empress and Change Sister coming over. Micondesa found herself stuck wide around Antelucan and La Fleurette. Just off midfield were Indarra outside Northern Model and Queen Of Wands. Russian Empress was able to lead and Change Sister sat up outsider her with Micondesa striding forward coming to the turn. Irada went for an inside run which was a bit tight but at the same time she wasn’t going well enough. Change Sister took over at the 200m but there was a wall chasing her. Antelucan and Indarra chimed in and from further back Mihalic and Miss Wilson also loomed. They claimed Change Sister and in a tight finish Indarra just held them off and narrowly downed Mihalic who lunged late and Antelucan scraped into third from Miss Wilson. They got away from the rest headed by Orvassa who ran on strongly from the back after a slow start.

Follow: Indarra is one to remember next preparation.

Race 3: Kevin Heffernan Stakes (1300m)

1st Famous Seamus – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd Generalife – James McDonald
3rd Gracious Prospect – Damian Lane

In Style was best out then handed up as Java went looking for the lead. Famous Seamus sat right on the speed and Gracious Prospect landed in a trail. Galaxy Pegasus didn’t want to settle at all racing inside GeneralifeMister Milton improved around them and flushed Generalife out a bit with Smokin’ Joey on their backs. Famous Seamus was staring down Java as far out as 600m to go and Gracious Prospect came out to loom alongside. Mister Milton kept his run going and that caused problems for Generalife who was held up and In Style was under pressure behind the leaders. Famous Seamus went for home at the 200m and got the better of Java. Gracious Prospect was still there and Generalife finally got to the outside but was some five lengths away. Famous Seamus sprinted and put a couple on Gracious Prospect as Generalife launched late but it was too late and Famous Seamus scrambled in. Generalife should have won, but that’s the story of his life, and Gracious Prospect continued his excellent form this time in to hold Under The Louvre for third. In Style and Java battled away but were well beaten.

Follow: Gracious Prospect back in grade.

Race 4: Sandown Stakes (1500m)

1st Charmed Harmony – Glen Boss
2nd Tashbeeh – Michael Walker
3rd Burning Front – Dean Yendall

No surprises as Charmed Harmony rolled to the lead. Burning Front and Star Rolling settled in behind him and Ninth Legion just eased a bit after jumping well. Harada Bay found himself three wide aroundAkavoroun and Tashbeeh on the fence. Mr Utopia recovered after a slow start to be in front of four. Charmed Harmony put the foot down in the middle stages and worked clear of Burning Front and that horse held a similar gap over Star Rolling and Ninth Legion. Tashbeeh pinched some ground along the fence to the turn. A few horses off the fence, Charmed Harmony was still being nursed at the 400m while Burning Front was under pressure to stay with him. It was almost like nothing changed between the 400m and 200m as Charmed Harmony held just over a length on seven horses trying to reel him in. Star Rolling dropped off that bunch and Tashbeeh was the one looking most likely to challenge, while Ninth Legion and Burning Front were sticking on. Charmed Harmony never looked like being run down though Tashbeeh did run him to a bit over a neck. Burning Front stayed on for third ahead of Ninth Legion while Harada Bay was also game after his wide run. Mr Utopia was never a threat and Akavoroun had his chance. Winner was far too good.

Follow: Tashbeeh might have a win in him.

Race 5: Zipping Classic (2400m)

1st Who Shot Thebarman – James McDonald
2nd Tall Ship – Brad Rawiller
3rd Do You Remember – Vlad Duric

Don Doremo stumbled at the start. Sertorius was sent forward to lead with Rising Romance coming across outside him. Kirramosa followed her and Do You Remember had the box seat. Tall Ship had a good spot a couple back from Don Doremo and Who Shot Thebarman trailed them. They slowed up down the back straight and in the space of abour 200m Who Shot Thebarman went from last to first as he took over from Sertorius, Rising Romance went back to third around Do You Remember. Tall Ship was relegated to last. Sertorius was the first under pressure as Who Shot Thebarman clicked up. Do You Remember followed the leader while Rising Romance was a bit flat. Kirramosa peeled out from behind her and Tall Ship was widest. Who Shot Thebarman sprinted well clear down to the 300m. Sertorius was battling with Do You Remember while Tall Ship was the only one making any ground from the back as he sailed down the outside but he’d have needed to be a world beater to make up the ground he spotted the leader. Who Shot Thebarman, thanks to a very smart ride, romped in. Tall Ship may have been beaten five lengths but his performance was outstanding. Next time for him. Do You Remember claimed third from Sertorius. Big flops from the mares Kirramosa and Rising Romance.

Follow: Tall Ship in anything he contests, particularly in a handicap.

Race 6: Eclipse Stakes (1800m)

1st Casino Dancer – James Winks
2nd Puccini – Brad Rawiller
3rd Worthy Cause – Luke Dittman

Garud was easily the best out but they kicked up inside him with Slate On Edge leading Jacquinot Bay. Garud was left three wide and Calvin Williams eased out of that battle. Worthy Cause punched up on the fence into the box seat. Casino Dancer sat three out around Malice and Digitalism while Scream Machinewas over racing badly four back on the fence. Garud worked up into second passing the 1000m and Puccinitook his spot having swept around them out wide. By the turn Puccini had just about headed Slate On Edge and Garud, the latter under a bit of pressure. Scream Machine went for a run on the fence and Worthy Cause and Jacquinot Bay were running on. Wider out Casino Dancer was a bit flat footed and behind her Malice was hard at it. Just inside the 300m Scream Machine’s saddle slipped badly behind and he cannoned into Slate On Edge and Garud, who were beaten anyway. Puccini was clear with Worthy Cause trying hard on his inside and Jacquinot Bay and Casino Dancer warming up late. Behind them Desert Jeuney had made ground and Malice finally hit his straps. Casino Dancer picked up Puccini in the last 50m, both strong efforts, and Worthy Cause held on for third. By this stage it was clear the best ground was four or five horses off the fence so while the first two raced wide it wasn’t such a big disadvantage.

Follow: Puccini was having his first run for the Weir stable so keep an eye on him if there’s another race around.

Race 7: Sandown Guineas (1600m)

1st Mahuta – Brad Rawiller
2nd Dal Cielo – Mark Zahra
3rd Don’t Doubt Mamma – Dwayne Dunn

Mahuta sprung out from the outside and Flying Light went with him. They punched up underneath though and Demonstrate darted through to lead with Ngarimu and Marky Mark in that bunch. Shockaholic settled better than midfield with Dal Cielo three wide around him while the next line included Don’t Doubt Mamma between Gredington and Maysam. Demonstrate looked to be going a bit hard in front while Flying Light settled well on his outside. Mahuta was left without cover and tracked by Dal Cielo in the three wide line. Demonstrate appeared to be travelling okay down to the 400m but was gone in a couple of strides and Marky Mark grabbed him on the inside while Mahuta sprinted very quickly to head both by the 300m. Ngarimu was a bit one paced and Dal Cielo was running on. Don’t Doubt Mamma was held up behind Dal Cielo for a while and spotted him three lengths when she got into the clear. Mahuta put the race away quickly as he sprinted clear and he just seems to keep winning. Dal Cielo ran on well and Don’t Doubt Mamma simply got too far back but again hit the line nicely. Ngarimu and Flying Light battled on okay behind the placings.

Follow: none, most of these will go for a spell.

Race 8: Sandown Cup (3200m)

1st Almoonqith – Michael Walker
2nd The Offer – Dwayne Dunn
3rd Grand Marshal – James McDonald

De Little Engine was slowly out and ridden up a bit to recover while Refectory blew it by about 10 lengths. Maygrove ran to the early lead from Pop ‘N’ ScotchManalapan and Renew followed. SomehowAlmoonqith settled fifth on the fence from barrier 14 and had Tremec on his outside. Planet Purple took off three deep out of the straight but was stuck there as the leaders kicked up. That strung the field out quite a bit down the back though they started to bunch up again by the 800m. Maygrove still led Pop ‘N’ Scotch but Planet Purple was under heavy pressure, Tremec took off around him while Manalapan and Renew just waited. Like A Carousel was moving into the race as Almoonqith looked to get off the fence.The Offer was tracking up behind him and Grand Marshal slipped up on the inside. Maygrove and Pop ‘N’ Scotch were battling it out at the 400m but you could see Almoonqith working into the clear and once he did he sprinted sharply. Grand Marshal got through on the inside where no-one wanted to be and The Offer was running on out wide. The Melbourne Cup runners filled the placings and Almoonqith was far too good, aided in part by an outstanding ride. The Offer was game and Grand Marshal had every chance. Like A Carousel ran to his level next while Sasenkile ran on and De Little Engine lost any chance at the start but ran well.

Follow: none.

Race 9: Summoned Stakes (1500m)

1st Solicit – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd She’s Clean – Glen Boss
3rd Mossbeat – Vlad Duric

Andrassy jumped about a length clear of the field but Solicit worked across from outside to head her.Coronation Shallan and Anfitriona were handy, Tycoon Tara eased and Mefnooda went on three wide. Also in that bunch were Coup De BeelBallet Suite and Matilija. Solicit ran a couple of lengths clear with Anfitriona sitting up second from Andrassy on the fence. Mefnooda kept working up around Coronation Shallan and Coup De Beel was tracking them up. Solicit rolled a few horses off the fence and responded when shaken up at the 400m, putting about four lengths on a wall of horses chasing. Coronation Shallan couldn’t match her and She’s Clean weaved through to try and cut into the margin, Mossbeat was running on out wide with Coup De Beel and Lilly Dazzler getting through from last. But Solicit was in a race of her own and absolutely smashed them. Mossbeat got up for yet another minor placing just failing to grab She’s Clean, honest again, and Lilly Dazzler was close up. A slow start proved costly for her. Not much to say about the rest, Scarlet Billows was always well back and only ran on fairly late.

Follow: none.

Specials from the meeting: Tall Ship, Puccini, Tashbeeh, Gracious Prospect.


Rosehill review

Race 1

1st Faraway Town – Jay Ford
2nd Pittsburgh – Josh Parr
3rd Cool In Black – Tye Angland

On a heavy track and another day of generally small fields, five two-year-olds faced the starter in race one.  Amber Isle found the front with Pittsburgh going up in its outside to join it in the lead.  Faraway Town got the run on the fence behind the speed withCool In Black on its outside with a couple of lengths to Black On Gold at the rear.  As they swung for home, Pittsburgh ran to the front with Faraway Town looking to make ground over on the fence.  Inside the final 100m it looked like Pittsburgh was clearly doing enough to hold Faraway Town and that even looked the case with 50m to go, but Faraway Town just kept trying and Pittsburgh got a bit tired late and ran back towards the fence which mean Faraway Town was able to arrive in the nick of time, in what was a very professional win.

Follow: Faraway Town

Race 2

1st More To Gain – Peter Wells
2nd Dinghu Mountain – Jason Collett
3rd Stoker – Tim Clark

Moray was a bit slow to go and Cartier Rock was taken deliberately back to the rear.  Brooklyn Storm led them up with Stoker in second but a few lengths off the leader who was traveling along at a good clip in front.  Dinghu Mountain and Aurora Glow were another couple of lengths back in third and fourth and then there was about five lengths to the rest of them.  The leader was let fly along in front and had an even bigger break when it came to the home turn.  It maintained its lead up to the 300m mark but there after it was apparent that it had gone out far too fast.  At the furlong, as Darren Flyndel put it, the leader was “gonezo”.  Dinghu Mountain and Aurora Glow briefly hit the front, but More To Gain was putting in a resolute finish from well back and hit the front soon after and came away for a strong win, after the pace in front suited it nicely.  Dinghu Mountain gets a pass mark in second but had every chance, and the run of Stoker was pretty good in third after being up around the pace the whole way.

Follow: Stoker

Race 3

1st Dashie De Luxe – Kathy O’Hara
2nd Eccitare – Greg Ryan
3rd Grand Proposal – Winona Costin

In race three, Heza Theif made good use of its inside gate to go through and take it up from Em Double You Bee who strode up on the outside after initially being caught wide.  Eccitare was in the one out and one back trail in third spot outside of Dashie De Luxe who secured a nice run on the fence.  Grand Proposal was midfield and caught out three deep and started to roll forward as they approached the home turn.  The leader left the fence when they turned for home and Dashie De Luxe said thank you very much and went through to the lead with over 300m to run.  From there in the run to the line, Dashie De Luxe had a good break.  Eccitare was chasing hard in second with Grand Proposal also making a good fist of it after being wide.  In the final 50m, Eccitare really dug in and managed to cut the margin back to about a neck, but couldn’t catch Dashie De Luxe who proved there was nothing wrong with the fence, being the second winner of the day to come along that section of the track.  Out wide on the track,High Opinion made ground in the run to the line, but was entitled to after sitting back at the rear smoking its pipe.

Follow: Grand Proposal

Race 4

1st Howmuchdoyouloveme – Samantha Clenton
2nd Zin Zan Eddie – Jay Ford
3rd Inz’n’Out Brenton – Avdulla

Inz ‘n’ Out came out ok from the inside gate but Quartzite had the pace to lead from Diamond Oasis, giving Inz ‘n’ Out the sit in third spot on the fence with Howmuchdoyouloveme getting the one out and one back trail in fourth.  Up towards and around the turn, Inz ‘n’ Out was making good ground to be just behind the leaders as they came into the straight.  He got the gap at the 300m mark and claimed Quartzite, but Howmuchdoyouloveme was coming with a slightly stronger run and came away in the final 100m to win it by over a length from Zin Zan Eddie who closed its race off very nicely and Inz ‘n’ Out who was pretty disappointing in the straight after a good run in transit.

Follow: Zin Zan Eddie

Race 5

1st Bring Luck – Peter Wells
2nd Sir John Hawkwood – Blake Spriggs
3rd Vilanova – Tye Angland

Bring Luck showed no pace out of the gates and was taken back to the rear.  Harry Hotspur took it up with Sir John Hawkwoodmoving around the outside to sit in second spot.  Best Case had a nice run on the fence in third with Vilanova outside of it.  Before the turn, Sir John Hawkwood travelled up to the leader and looked to be going ok as there were a number of rivals off the bit.  Early in the straight, Sir John Hawkwood was asked for the effort and put a length or so on them, but wasn’t really getting away.  Soon after, Bring Luck was coming with a strong run down the outside.  He ran to the front soon after and the issue was beyond doubt.  In the run to the  line, Sir John Hawkwood didn’t give in and battled on well for second but was about two and a half lengths behind Bring Luck, Vilanova was about the same margin back behind it in third and the rest of them were beaten out of sight.

Follow: None to follow

Race 6

1st Typhoon Jolie – Sam Clipperton
2nd Role Model – Tim Clark
3rd Fiftyshadesofgrey – Jess Taylor

Typhoon Jolie was out of the gates in a hurry and went to the early lead from I Am Zelady who then went up and shaded Typhoon Jolie in front before running about a length clear.  Role Model took a sit in third spot.  Mid race, I am Zelady sped away from them and led by about four lengths around the turn.  She travelled well in front up to the 300m mark, but when asked for the effort thereafter was quickly a beaten force being first up on the heavy going.  Typhoon Jolie had the front inside the furlong and had them beaten thereafter.  Role Model ran second after a good run in transit and Fiftyshadesofgrey was third after working home ok wide out on the track.  I am Zelady will be improved for this run and didn’t drop out too badly so can be followed.

Follow: I am Zelady

Race 7

1st Zanbagh – Kathy O’Hara
2nd Frespanol – Thomas Huet
3rd Mighty Lucky – Nathan Thomas

It was a pretty good line out in race seven with Heart Testa winning it and going to the front.  Frespanol was up in second withBlack Jag in fourth.  Sterling City was just behind them in fourth.  Heart Testa had a decent break around the turn and had most of them pushed along to give chase.  Up to the 300m mark it was still Heart Testa by about three lengths.  Heart Testa was running on empty at the 100m mark and Fespanol had him on toast, but Zanbagh was putting in a big finish on the outside from well back and in the run to the line, Zanbagh passed Frespanol and came away for a pretty soft and impressive win.  Zanbagh showed a lot of potential as a younger horse and might go on with it now after this win.

Follow: Zanbagh

Race 8

1st Figtree – Josh Parr
2nd Ziggy Willie – Tye Angland
3rd Danish Twist – Samantha Clenton

Danish Twist looked a little slow to go in race eight.  Footy Fan took it up in front from Ziggy Willie with Disgraceful up three wide.  Before the turn, Figtree was set alight out wide on the track and went up towards the leaders.  Ziggy Willie moved up to Footy Fan inside the 300m mark, with Footy Fan still giving a bit of a kick, and Figtree sustaining its run out wide on the track.  It looked like a real slog to the line on the wet track but Figtree was strong and got there over Ziggy Willie and Danish Twist who got home nicely after being well back.  I liked the way the winner made a long sustained run here and still outgunned them on the line.  It can win more races.

Follow: Figtree

Race 9

1st Telepathic – Rory Hutchings
2nd Anyaas Jess – Taylor
3rd Bankster’s Bonus – Regan Bayliss

Anyaas was out quickly and lobbed its way over onto the fence to lead it up.  Too Hi Tek was up in second on the outside of First Class Ticket who was getting a nice run on the fence.  Back midfield, Dowdstown Charlie was out wide, but that didn’t seem to be a disadvantage on this track.  It was being trailed up by Telepathic.  Anyaas looked to travel pretty well around the bend withDuca Valentinois the first to mount a challenge, but that was short lived.  Anyaas still had it with 300m to go.  Telepathic was the one that was coming out of the pack down the outside.  Telepathic struck the front at the furlong, and maintained its run to hold onto about a half length lead from Anyaas who was pretty good in second spot to keep fighting on.  Bankster’s Bonus was also ok in third after trailing the winner, but couldn’t find enough to run over the top of it.  Duca Valentinois dropped right out in a run that matched its betting drift, presumably due to the heavy track.

Follow: Anyaas

Specials from the meeting: Zanbagh, Figtree


Q&A with Ben Krahe

by David on November 11, 2015

Our harness racing expert Ben Krahe hosted a webinar to:

(1) Read two live markets pre-race and give his thoughts on when to bet
(2) Explain when and why bookies move their prices
(3) Run an extended Q&A session on form analysis, ratings, staking and pro punting

The session runs for 1 hour and you can watch it below (don’t mind the dog!)

More info on the incredibly successful Harness Power package.


Derby Day reviews

by Champion Picks on November 9, 2015

Flemington Review

Race 1: Maribyrnong Plate (1000m)

1st Power Trip – Craig Williams
2nd Flying Artie – Dale Smith
3rd Gloriette – James McDonald

Flying Artie was up in the air after the gates opened and was last out. The field split with War Hero,Power Up RiseGloriette and Flying Artie staying towards the inside and Power TripDalradian andValliano beyond the middle of the track. War Hero and Power Up Rise had the lead coming to the 400m with Gloriette climbing over their backs inside Flying Artie. Power Trip was well clear of the other two near the outside fence. About 300m out there Flying Artie grabbed War Hero and Gloriette had to wait to get into the clear. Power Trip was right with them wide out and he and Flying Artie drew away to fight it out. Nothing in it on the line but Power Trip prevailed narrowly over Flying Artie, the start probably cost him there, and Gloriette picked up good ground, also a bit unlucky. War Hero weakened and Valliano was next on the outside fence. Dalradian may not have handled the conditions.

Follow: Flying Artie and Gloriette put in excellent debut efforts.

Race 2: Starlight Children’s Foundation (2000m)

1st Divan – Damien Oliver
2nd Velox – Craig Williams
3rd Have Plenty – Steven King

Okahu Bay crossed pretty easily to lead Distillation and Pacific HeightsSysmo worked over from his wide alley without much trouble to settle outside Divan with Prizum and Have Plenty behind that pair. Distillation moved alongside Okahu Bay and kept him busy and the leader kicked up again to run clear. Pacific Heights was getting a nice run behind them with Divan moving into the box seat. Sysmo eased out before the turn and Prizum moved wider, Have Plenty was held up on the fence and Velox started to track up from near the back. Distillation was first to crack and Pacific Heights claimed Okahu Bay at the top of the straight. Divan was looking for a run between them an wide out Sysmo and Prizum loomed. Velox raced a bit flat footed and lost a bit of ground under the whip. Divan took the gap and sprinted to the lead at the 300m and Have Plenty followed him. Sysmo was tightened up a bit and had to change course inside Pacific Heights and Velox started to wind up right out near the outside fence. Divan was clear, though, and he held Velox pretty easily in the last 100m for a strong win. Impressive type. Velox ran his race in patches but hit the line and Have Plenty’s run was honest. He’s clearly flying at the moment. Sysmo had a few excuses but 61kg didn’t help his cause.

Follow: long term Divan is a name to remember.

Race 3: Queen’s Cup (2600m)

1st Dandino – Ben Melham
2nd Secret Number – James McDonald
3rd Don Doremo – Vlad Duric

Bonfire rolled to the lead out of the straight with Don Doremo behind him and Secret Number up without cover. Dandino had his back, Beaten Up settled three back on the fence with Like A Carousel outside and a couple to Bold Sniper. Very little change for a long way in the small field. Bonfire looked to be going a bit hard in the lead and Secret Number crept closer about 1000m out. Dandino kept stalking him around Don Doremo. Like A Carousel was the first to try and make a move but he was under pressure and causing a bit of grief for Beaten Up who was looking to shove him out of the way. Secret Number hit the lead near the 300m but was quickly under siege as Dandino pounced and Don Doremo went up on his inside. Bonfire couldn’t go with them. Dandino dashed past Secret Number but ran in and tightened him up very badly and he lost a couple of lengths. Don Doremo was sticking on and got a length clear of Secret Number in the scrimmage. Dandino had a couple of lengths to spare at the finish as Secret Number got going again to grab second from Don Doremo and they spaced the rest headed by Like A Carousel. It might have been interesting had Secret Number finished within a length of Dandino as to whether there’d have been an objection.

Follow: none, end of the line for most of these this spring.

Race 4: Hilton Hotels Stakes (1400m)

1st Palentino – Michelle Payne
2nd Demonstrate – James McDonald
3rd Ngarimu – Glen Boss

Les Darci broke best but didn’t want the lead and handed up quickly to Secret Prophet crossing from wider out with Apoloboom between them. Demonstrate was only fairly out but went forward and Ngarimulanded in a pretty good trail. Behind him were KrackenSongo D’Oro and Palentino three deep. Demonstrate kept his move going and went up outside Secret Prophet about 800m out. Les Darci tucked in behind them with Apoloboom who eased three deep coming to the turn, forcing Palentino four out. Demonstrate went straight past Secret Prophet at the 400m and kicked away. Apoloboom was under the whip and Les Darci and Ngarimu were trying to run on on the inside. Palentino warmed to the task and he set out after the leader with purpose. Demonstrate looked strong at the 200m but by the 100m was gone and Palentino swept by for quite a nice win for Michelle Payne. Demonstrate was game after working a bit early and Ngarimu finished his race off pretty well. They got away from Secret Prophet. Les Darci had his chance.

Follow: Palentino and Ngarimu look to be promising.

Race 5: Antler Luggage Handicap (1600m)

1st Rhythm To Spare – Damien Oliver
2nd Defiant Angel – Dominic Tourneur
3rd Setinum – James McDonald

Only Petrology and Setinum wanted nothing to do with the early lead and after about 300m Rhythm To Spare took up the running with King’s Dance on his outside but the latter horse eased and Elmantoshkicked up on the fence. Inspector settled in the box seat and they ran four lengths clear of Defiant Angel. Rhythm To Spare stayed off the fence but led comfortably over Elmantosh and King’s Dance. It looked as though Rhythm To Spare had a couple of easy sectionals before the turn and he clicked up and ran a couple clear into the straight with King’s Dance under pressure chasing him. Inspector was in the clear but one paced. Setinum and Defiant Angel made their runs together down the outside while Petrology tried to pick up with a run on the inside of Inspector. Rhythm To Spare looked a sitting duck at the 200m but the others weren’t making an impact and he edged away again late for a strong, and overdue, win. He hasn’t had a lot of luck lately and appreciated the sting out of the ground. Defiant Angel worried Setinum out of second place and King’s Dance just weakened the last bit.

Follow: none in particular, though King’s Dance was only second-up so could still improve.

Race 6: Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m)

1st Delectation – James McDonald
2nd Chautauqua – Dwayne Dunn
3rd Terravista – Hugh Bowman

Buffering made his intentions clear early and led on the outside fence with Tiger Tees and Srikandi up handy to him. Lumosty was on his back with Flamberge. Closer to the inside were Chautauqua andTerravista while Delectation and Boban had plenty of cover at the back. Tiger Tees was the first under pressure and Buffering travelled pretty well. Srikandi was being held together with Chautauqua on her back and Flamberge on her outside. Lumosty followed Buffering and behind them Delectation started to improve. Terravista was last and under riding at the 400m. Buffering was still going strong at the 200m but they were starting to close. Delectation on his inside and Terravista made a dash from the back and loomed on the outside. Chautauqua got past Srikandi and was starting to rally. Terravista momentarily looked like he’d swamp them but Delectation dug in and held him off while Chautauqua tried hard to match him. Less than half a length between them on the line but Delectation had his head out for an upset win after being a bit unlucky a week earlier. Chautauqua was honest but perhaps his sprint was dulled in the wet and Terravista looked to be back to his best. Game effort from Buffering and on that run he’ll take some beating in Perth. Srikandi wasn’t disgraced but she’s probably not a straight track horse.

Follow: none. However, Chautauqua and Terravista probably go to Hong Kong for next month’s G1 Sprint and can be competitive.

Race 7: Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m)

1st Turn Me Loose – Kerrin McEvoy
2nd Politeness – Craig Newitt
3rd Rock Sturdy – Dominic Tourneur

Ecuador broke well but Turn Me Loose wanted the lead and came over with Coronation ShallanDispositionwent forward this time and found a good spot between Lucky Hussler and Arod. The next line was Sons Of John on the inside of Rock Sturdy and Bow Creek, who was only fair to begin, wound up midfield. Turn Me Loose was allowed to do his own thing in front and steadied the pace enough to have a break but not be pressured. Coronation Shallan was being niggled at a fair way out while Ecuador waited. Disposition was niggled at before the turn and passed by Arod while Lucky Hussler went back to the inside on the bend. Bow Creek was tracking up but also being pushed along. Lucky Hussler made a bid to run Turn Me Loose down on the inside at the 300m and may have drawn level but certainly couldn’t get past. Ecuador battled and Rock Sturdy came out of the pack looking a threat with Politeness weaving through from the back. Magic Artist appeared on the scene late along the fence while He Or She ran home well right down the outside. Turn Me Loose was there to be beaten in the last 100m or so but fought on bravely to hold off Politeness, who might not have needed much more ground, and Rock Sturdy produced a career best for third. Magic Artist found the drop back to a mile against him and He Or She was close up. Lucky Hussler wasn’t quite up to the task this time but has had an excellent prep. Bow Creek was a big flop.

Follow: don’t be surprised if Turn Me Loose develops into a WFA performer next prep.

Race 8: Matriarch Stakes (2000m)

1st Lucia Valentina – Damien Oliver
2nd Manageress – Chris Parnham
3rd Casino Dancer – James McDonald

Long Face Grace was able to find the lead over Imperial Lass crossing from a wide gate. Casino Dancerdropped in for a trail with Zarzali holding the fence. Ponderosa Miss was trapped wide midfield so improved giving Ungrateful Ellen some cover around No TricksRing Da Belle was next inside Sure You Can and Manageress in the three wide line. Lucia Valentina settled second last. They were off the fence well before the turn and Imperial Lass cornered in front from Long Face Grace and Zarzali getting up on the inside with Ring Da Belle. Wider out Ponderosa Miss looked to be ready to pounce but didn’t and right out wider Ungrateful Ellen and Manageress were winding up. Close to the outside fence Lucia Valentina started her run. Zarzali had burst to the front down to the 200m but there were plenty of chasers. Manageress and Lucia Valentina closed in out wide and Casino Dancer chimed in too alongside Zarzali. Lucia Valentina on the outside fence finished the race off best and her class prevailed. Manageress ran to her best in a game second and had the rest covered with Casino Dancer a nice third just ahead of Ungrateful Ellen, who again hit a flat spot then charged late. Zarzali, Sure You Can and No Tricks were close up.

Follow: if she can put her mind on the job Ungrateful Ellen has a win in her.

Race 9: Emirates Airline Handicap (1400m)

1st Malaguerra – Ben Melham
2nd Reldas – Chris Parnham
3rd Gracious Prospect – Michael Walker

Malaguerra jumped well but Gracious Prospect kicked up to hold him out for the lead. Mirage pushed forward three out and Chile Express eased into the box seat. Flow Meter sat outside him. A couple toLongeron three out around Reldas and Ulmann. Mirage took over off the fence from Gracious Prospect and Malaguerra just easing to the outside of the new leader. Flow Meter came four out while Ulmann ran up into a pocket coming to the turn. Again, they were well off the inside into the straight. Gracious Prospect regained the lead at the 400m from Mirage under pressure. Malaguerra was a couple of lengths away getting a bit wider, tightening Flow Meter for a stride or two, and Reldas made his run inside him with Ulmann who couldn’t match him. Gracious Prospect was giving a good sight but Malaguerra and Reldas gathered him up at the 100m and Malaguerra finished by far the better to make it two wins during Cup week. Reldas ran well (remember his best is at Moonee Valley) and Gracious Prospect held third comfortably. No excuses for anything there.

Follow: Gracious Prospect is ready to win.

Specials from the meeting: Flying Artie, Gloriette, King’s Dance, Gracious Prospect.


Canterbury Review

Race 1

1st Slots – Lester Grace
2nd Ryker – Christian Reith
3rd High Esteem – Regan Bayliss

A small field of four got them under way in the first at Canterbury and Ryker came out well and was pushed a bit to go across and lead from High EsteemSlots settled third with Kristy Lee back last. The speed slowed and they ended up racing in pairs with High Esteem and Kristy Lee leaving the fence. Up around the turn, High Esteem was putting it to Ryker and back behind those Slots was being urged along but not as much as Kristy Lee who was shown the persuader. At the furlong Ryker got away from High Esteem and Slots was making some ground but it didn’t look like being enough until the final 100m where Ryker sat down a bit and Slots put in its best work to get past Ryker in the final 50m of the race.

Follow: Slots

Race 2

1st Morton’s Fork – Sam Clipperton
2nd Babooshka – Jay Ford
3rd Amber Isle – Kathy O’Hara

The two-year-olds were up next and when they settled into stride Gitan had the lead on the inside with Rather Sweet striding up to match it on the outside. Sleek took a nice trail in third spot back a couple of lengths, with a couple more lengths back to Amber Isle inside of Morton’s Fork. Around the turn, Sleek came three wide and Morton’s Fork traveled into it ok out four wide. Up to the furlong Morton’s Fork was still coming with its run, but Babooshka looked to be finishing of better out wider on the track. Gitan kept kicking on along the inside until the final 100m where Morton’s Fork and Babooshka drew to the front and it looked like Babooshka may gain the day, but Morton’s Fork dug in and got there about a neck on the line. The rest of them lined up for third with Amber Isle getting that decision.

Follow: Babooshka

Race 3

1st Spatsizi – Lester Grace
2nd Torgersen – Jason Collett
3rd Feast For Eyes – Sam Clipperton

It was a decent line out in the third with Feast For Eyes pushing on from a wide gate to take it up and Last Witness moved across into second. Spatsizi took up a nice spot just behind the pace on the fence. Mid race, Feast For Eyes set up a couple of lengths break in front and the pace looked ok. Before the turn, Feast For Eyes had taken off and set up about a fourth length break. Last Witness was in trouble and being urged along with Spatsizi coming up along its inside to set out after the leader. Inside the furlong, Feast For Eyes still had a good break but shortened stride noticeably at the 150m mark and Spatsizi andTorgersen had it on toast with Spatsizi doing the better work in the final part to narrowly get the money. The tiring Feast For Eyes held third with the rest of the field putting in very ordinary performances.

Follow: None to follow

Race 4

1st Bullpit – Brodie Loy
2nd Freeze The Charges – Kathy O’Hara
3rd Mr Manhattan – Josh Parr

Another small field of four in race four and Bullpit ran to the front today from the short priced favourite Mr ManhattanFreeze The Charges was slow out today and third on the fence after flying along in front last start. Before the turn, Bullpit looked to travel very nicely in front with the rest of them being urged along and those who took the shorts about Mr Manhattan were already on the way to the bar for stiff drink. Up to the furlong, he raised and effort and almost got on terms with Bullpit, but Bullpit responded to riding and again drew away hard up against the fence and was never really in doubt of losing. Freeze The Charges got home ok to get past the very disappointing Mr Manhattan who held third.

Follow: None to follow

Race 5

1st Shadow Affair – Christian Reith
2nd Tony The Pony – Jay Ford
3rd Lion Of Africa – Tim Clark

Back to the 1550m start for race five with a few of them contesting the early lead. Stoic from an outside gate pushed across and led from Darts Away on the outside of Vee Eight Sixty. The favourite in the affair was Ashjata who got back to second last and gave the speed about ten lengths. They packed up a bit towards the turn with Stoic still traveling ok, and Shadow Affair coming out of the one out and one back trail to be in a striking position as they turned. Ashjata was still back last and in plenty of barney rubble. At the furlong, Shadow Affair came up and claimed Stoic with nothing else running on strongly enough and the race looked over. In the final part Tony The Pony finished off well and claimed second along with Lion Of Africa who took third spot from well back. Ashjata closed off from last well enough to get a pass mark, but was never a threat today.

Follow: Lion Of Africa

Race 6

1st Nevagotavote – Samantha Clenton
2nd Sebrina – Brenton Avdulla
3rd Berrimilla – Tye Angland

The small fields kept coming, and there were five starters in race six. Nevagotavote took it up with Pythagorean moving around the outside into second and Berrimilla got a nice run on the fence in third. Speaking of nice runs, Nevagotavote had it all its own way in front and by the time they got to the 600m mark, looked hard to beat as the others chopped and changed and many of them pulled in the run. Around the turn, Nevagotavote was traveling well as its rivals were all scrubbed along. At the furlong, Nevagotavote still had it and was being asked for the effort as Berrimilla and Sebrina were working home fairly. In the run to the line, Nevagotavote found plenty and had a length and a half to spare over Sebrina who got away from Berrimilla in what was a fair effort for second.

Follow: Sebrina

Race 7

1st Rule The River – Jason Collett
2nd Festivity – Jordan Childs
3rd Magnajoy – Lester Grace

Skripchenko went straight back to last in race seven. There were four of them all looking for the lead early on. Eventually that became two of them that paired off in front with Festivity holding the fence inside of Magnajoy going stride for stride.Butterboom was in third outside of Rule The River who took a nice sit on the fence behind the speed. Around the turn, the two in front were still going together with Butterboom moving up three wide to challenge. At the furlong, Rule The River got a lovely rails run and sprinted very nicely to go up and hit the lead and sprint away from that point onwards. Festivity and Magnajoy didn’t shirk the task, fighting on for second and third respectively. Butterboom died on its run, but held down a distant fourth.

Follow: None to follow

Race 8

1st Quick Strike – Jason Collett
2nd Song And Laughter – Brenton Avdulla
3rd Olympic Academy – Tye Angland

A good line out for race eight over the 1900m and they took a little while to sort themselves out, but by the time they got to the post on the first occasion it was Sabkhat taking it up with Song And Laughter moving into second after coming across from wide out. Zaboss and Olympic Academy got the soft runs behind the speed in third and fourth. The eventual winner, Quick Strike got back to second last but looked to settle beautifully with its head on its chest. At the 600m mark, he was woken up by Jason Collett and started to make a move into the race three wide. Into the straight, Sabkhat was the fist one beaten as Song And Laughter strode to the front. The rest of them were being pushed along hard, but it was Quick Strike who put in a resolute finish to hit the front and draw away in the last 100m to win it by over a length from Song And Laughter who held second ahead of the other very average opposition . Bardiya was one of the better of those, finishing its race off ok for fourth. The winner ran some good races in better class as a three-year-old and now that he has won this one, I think he can put a couple of wins together. It was a good effort to sustain a long run today.

Follow: Quick Strike

Race 9

1st Better Not Blue – Jess Taylor
2nd Sanzio – Sam Clipperton
3rd Surfin’ Safari – Tye Angland

Five runners again to finish the card off over the 1250m and they all came out as one. Sanzio took it up when they settled down from Next Level in second and Surfin’ Safari in third. Better Not Blue didn’t appear to like being restrained and was pulling hard early in the piece. Around the turn, Sanzio still traveled well in front with a few of its rivals off the bit behind it. Sanzio gave a good kick after they turned for home and still maintained a lead inside the 100m mark with Better Not Blue looking the danger. Those two came to the line locked together with Better Not Blue doing just enough to gain the judges decision. They put a gap on Surfin Safari’ who got going late after being under pressure on the line, and the run of All Salsa was ok to finish off from last to just miss third.

Follow: None to follow


Specials from the meeting: Quick Strike


Overall note for the meeting: A wet track and small fields throughout the day, be very wary of the form out of this meeting.


Nick Aubrey is a former actuary who uses advanced mathematics, probability theory and market anomalies to find value as a punter.

He’s been on the Betting 360 podcast previously to discuss his approach, quaddies and multi’s.

On this episode we pose the standard questions of our form analysis and staking series. You will soon learn the most important factor in everything that he does.

Punting Insights

  • Why everything he does as a punter ultimately comes down to price
  • The winners will come along when they’re good and ready
  • The ‘sweet spot’ price bracket to include in your exotics
  • Nick’s analysis showing a 7/1 chance is just as likely to run 3rd as the 9/4 favourite

Today’s Guest:
Nick Aubrey

>> Click here to read the transcript

Dave Duffield: Good to have you on Nick. We’re trying to get a cross-section of people for this series and you fit the bill as someone who doesn’t do things the same way as a lot of other people.

Nick Aubrey: Yep, everybody’s different I guess.

Dave Duffield: Of course. We’ll get stuck into it and you can explain those differences.
In terms of form, are you someone that likes to sit down and do the form, per se? Or is it more about data?

Nick Aubrey: Well I must admit data tends to solidify … I guess I got into racing because of my gut feel aspect so I thought, oh this is easy. I can work what the odds and form should be but data is a very clinical way of representing horses’ performance. It’s a bit less biased than perhaps the gut feel. For instance on Saturday, that freak run – maybe it is a freak, maybe it’s not – of Winx to win the Cox Plate. That was fantastic and that’ll never leave my mind, but what is probably not considered when you think of that was there track bias on the day? What a freak run that Hughie Bowman got to go up on the inside, because … Was that a high-risk ride or low-risk? There’s a lot of factors that only the facts and figures later on will tell.

Dave Duffield: Do you specialise in certain races or do you cover many?

Nick Aubrey: Many, because I get a data feed so therefore I can do as many as I like. The idea is to bet on as many races as possible to try and spread the risk and really betting is not so much about backing winners but getting the right price about them. The winners will come when they’re good and ready. I try to do as many races and bet into as many races as possible.

Dave Duffield: I’ve heard you say that a few times, you might just want to touch on that briefly; “The winners will come when they’re good and ready.” That’s always been your approach.

Nick Aubrey: Yes. I mean, at the end of the day depending upon your circumstances if you’re a punter or a bookmaker but it’s a zero sum game and bookmakers tend to charge a margin and to win on the punt you’ve got to overcome that margin.
Like for instance the Cox Plate. The margins there, you’re not going to get 20/1 about Winx because the market’s got it pretty right. Therefore, you’ve got to get the best price about Winx. People that took 6/1 about Winx the day before or whatever, they were laughing. People who just put on the TAB and took the $4.20 well, okay they got the winner but would that price if they got it all the time be sufficient to make a profit in the long term?
It is, sadly, all about the price you get. Of course, you need the winners as well but the winners will come when they’re good and ready because nobody can predict what the next one is around the bend.

Dave Duffield: What about speed maps? How do they influence the way you price a race or the way you want to bet?

Nick Aubrey: Yes, well that is something that I’ve only … Well I’ve always been interested in it but I’ve been, circumstances are I’ve been looking at that in a lot more detail of late. It’s amazing that even in races where you don’t think speed is that important, like more the staying races, backing an on-pace runner in terms of typically their value and their ability to win, it’s amazing that on-pace runners all things being equal have a better chance that back markers. I guess because they miss interference? And also if it’s a good jockey onboard and he can pace the race well, then sometimes he can pinch it when in fact maybe it’s not the best horse on the day.

Dave Duffield: How do you rate jockeys? Do you place a critical importance for jockeys and also trainers?

Nick Aubrey: Trainers not so much, because they tend to rise slowly. The Chris Wallers, he’s obviously a very good trainer and he’s been training for many years, but his stock seemed to get improvement as he wins, he gets the better horses. Obviously, there was a race a few weeks ago, I think he might have had 90% of the field. That’s because he’s such a good trainer, owners want to put their charges in his control. To actually get an edge, because remember it’s all about the price, I tend to discount trainers. Although maybe a trainer on a home track could be something that gives you a bit better price than normal.
Jockeys in form however….a system that one of my mates uses, he says, “I always back the jockey that’s one the first race of the day, through the day.” The other interesting thing I’ve noticed that especially with the jockey challenge, you’ll find a jockey that’s in contention in the last race for the jockey challenge it’s amazing how well they ride on that last race. I don’t know what it is, they just have their tails up and they just go for broke. A jockey in form is a good jockey to follow.

Dave Duffield: Barriers, do you place much importance there?

Nick Aubrey: It’s more to do with … It’s a combination of barriers and runners. As I mentioned earlier, Winx inside barrier and that across that distance, I remember years ago there was a horse that was the favourite but he was inside barrier but it’s the leader in the race and it was still favorite 6/4 and it had to be used up early, it had to pull right across get to the front which it did, but then dropped out in the straight. It very much depends upon what barrier’s drawn for the type of running style and the distance of the race and whether the start of the race is on the bend of … On the turn, because some of the races especially in the provincials, they can be starting at the turn. You’ve got to probably back horses that are going to be jumping fast from the inner boxes. For other races, probably not important at all. Again horses for barriers, rather than horses for courses.

Dave Duffield: Are you much of a believer in weights?

Nick Aubrey: Weights … well they say the old adage, you know “Weight can stop a train,” there’s no doubt that it’s certainly important. One angle I do look at is not so much the weight above the limit but has this horse carried this weight previously before and won a race? Maybe horses can carry a certain weight easily, doesn’t matter if you’re on 54 or 58, they’ll be be able to carry that but you put them up to 60 and they’ll struggle. It’s a bit like the last straw that break’s the camels back. It’s a bit of an unknown area; there’s no doubt that that’s the whole basis of handicapping horses is based on weights.
You can also see when a horse throws his jockey as it did a couple of weeks ago … I told my mate “Watch this one rush around the outside.” It threw its jockey in the barrier, so it was about 10, 20 lengths behind the last horse at the start and it circled the field, went right around the outside of the field, and went away and won by about 4 or 5 lengths. Because that’s a natural instinct of a horse, to run. It’s a pack animal. The fact that it was un-weighted meant it had a huge advantage. Obviously it does, but it’s a matter of what the marginal difference is.
So yes I do, but I’m still struggling. The jury’s still out on how big an affect weight has from week-to-week.

Dave Duffield: Trials, they’ve become more and more exposed over the last few years. How do you assess them when you’re doing the form?

Nick Aubrey: I think trials are a good indication if the trainer thinks that this horse … If he wants to win first up. Let’s face it, even though there’s a lot of stewards and what have you looking at the performance of horses, I’ve often heard a trainer say it in fact when the horses I have owned – albeit too few – they’ve said, “Oh yeah, Nick don’t waste your hard-earned on this one. I’m just really sending it around it’s a bit more than a track gallop.” If that same horse had had two or three trials, and it was well-placed, then the trainer would say, “Yep, I’ve prepared this to win first up, so yeah get your money on.” It’s important to look at trials in that context, I think.

Dave Duffield: How heavily do you use sectional times?

Nick Aubrey: I don’t really. I’m not a great believer in sectionals, other than showing that the horse has got the acceleration to win a race. I think a lot of it does depend on the race pace. I think Winx had a track record when it won the Cox Plate last week so it’s going to have outstanding sectionals but it was very much based on the style of race on the day.

Dave Duffield: When the tracks are wet do you stop betting? Do you reduce your bets or do you approach the actual form differently?

Nick Aubrey: The form these days is very comprehensive and it in fact shows you what the horse’s performance is like on wet tracks. Although some of the horses they do tend to … A lot of them reckon it depends upon the breeding and the hoof size and what have you, how well they can trail through the mud. Then again, wet tracks … Is it holding? Is it slippery? Is it just dead? Various track conditions, it’s hard to know even though the penetrometer reading might show a high figure that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to be … That it’s the same as another track of the same reading.
It is a bit of conjecture, but I never stop betting because of the wet tracks. In fact I tend to think that on those tracks maybe the prices will be a bit better. If I want a certain price about a horse, I sometimes get it on a wet track where I might not get it on a good track. There’s no doubt that there is more volatility in the results on wet tracks so you’ve just got to factor that into your price.

Dave Duffield: Whether it’s wet tracks or firm tracks do you ever take any notice of breeding?

Nick Aubrey: Well … Actually as I mentioned breeding and wet tracks, there is a lot of historical basis for saying that breeding of a horse does effect their ability to handle wet tracks. Also if there’s little disclosed form, especially for some of those early 2 year old and 3 year old races, rather than looking at the horses form look at their breeding.

Dave Duffield: What about big versus small markets? Larger markets tend to be efficient, versus smaller, easy to beat markets but where the actual liquidity or getting a bet on might be a problem? Do you have a preference?

Nick Aubrey: No I don’t, because it’s price. I don’t care if it’s a big or small market, it’s whether or not I’ve got the right price for the horse.

Dave Duffield: Okay. We’ll move onto the betting and the staking side of things. Do you ever bet level stakes? Or is it always more proportionately?

Nick Aubrey: Yes, I like to bet in proportion to the risk. Level stakes, well depending upon how much money you’ve got left in your kit I suppose. You might have to be level. Typically, I’ll bet in proportion to the risk and so therefore proportional betting. I don’t know if you mean by proportional also progressive?

Dave Duffield: No.

Nick Aubrey: You’re not talking about progressive? No. To me that’s a big no no, of increasing your bets based on the past performers because as everybody knows, probability has no memory.

Dave Duffield: Yes, I’ve heard you say that before. I never have, never will recommend the progressive side.
Some people I speak to have different staking levels depending on their confidence in the race. Do you do that? Or is it what you mentioned before, just in accordance with risk?

Nick Aubrey: Well, if I do have a high level of confidence it’s because probably the price is better than I considered then yeah … I learned from ages ago when I used to be working with Mark Read that he always bet according to his prices, and therefore he had a lot more on a horse when his price was a bit over compared to what the market was.
That’s what the Kelly Criterion is all about; trying to stake your bets in proportion to what you see as their overlay. Obviously, if you’re a losing punter then what Kelly Criterion is saying is don’t bet.

Dave Duffield: A lot of people wouldn’t listen to that advice though!

Nick Aubrey: That’s right.

Dave Duffield: Market intelligence? Whether this is your win betting or the software that you developed with the TAB, when do you use Market Intelligence in your staking?

Nick Aubrey: I don’t really. It’s based on what my price is. If you listen to the market, then you’ll probably end up like the market which as a zero sum game typically the average punter loses. It’s in some ways sad that you hear on the radio, “Oh, this is really short and it’s the corporate bookie’s market mover,” but the trouble is the people who get on then, get on at the wrong price not the right price. If you follow the market and say right I’ll back that horse, you’ll probably back more winners than you might back, but you won’t just by following that strategy, you’re not going to make a profit in the long term, sadly.

Dave Duffield: Is your preference to bet early in the day or even early in the week? Or is it late in betting?

Nick Aubrey: Yes, well … Based on again your prices, if the right price is early in the day you bet early in the day. If that price doesn’t appear until late in the day, then you’ll only bet once you get your price. There’s no doubt that the pro-punters they make their money out of the early market because they’ve done the form better than the bookmakers or whoever is offering the odds. Because they’re the market makers, they’ll take an early price, people who took 6/1 about Winx … They did their form and said, “Right well we see 6/1 about Winx is a great odds.” Later in the day, it came into what it was probably around a $4.50 shot in that race, and that’s where the early betting bares dividends.
There’s another pro-punter I know that what he does is if the early market is bad he will actually place his money on the tote because he expects those horses will end up going out in the betting and not coming in, because they’re over inflated at the start. He sort of modifies his strategy based on his perception of the market, and what the market is offering at a particular point in time.

Dave Duffield: Do you ever bet long range futures, pre-post bets?

Nick Aubrey: Again, if the price is there, yes-

Dave Duffield: Seems to be a recurring theme here.

Nick Aubrey: Price? Yes. It’s all about the odds.

Dave Duffield: Fair enough.
When will you … I’m anticipating the answer here … When would you bet each way or place only?

Nick Aubrey: Based on the price, although the interesting thing though and a lot of people don’t realise it, that a bet for a place is completely different bet than for the win. A lot of people bet place as sort of insurance in case their horse does badly. For instance, not many people realize that all things being equal, a 7/1 chance has got the same chance as a 9/4, $2.25 shot of running 3rd in a race. Go figure on that.
Depending upon the horse you want to back, and its style of running … I mean if you think it’s going to run a place but you don’t think it’s got much chance of winning then you go and find out what you see as the true place price and then back it if you can get that price.

Dave Duffield: Just to explain on that then, you’re saying from the research you’ve done (and this is for 3rd, not 1st or 2nd) but the chances of a horse running 3rd are no different between a 9/4 chance and 7/1?

Nick Aubrey: On the average, yeah. It’s empirical evidence. If people who want to sit down and get thousands of races and look at them … And it’s probably based on a bookmaker’s market not a normalised market, but nevertheless. That’s the strike rate of those horses and there’s a lot of factors that will come into play there, because typically … If you go to the other end, a 100/1 shot versus an odds-on shot to run a place, you’ll often find an odds-on shot won’t run a place if it loses. If it doesn’t win, it may not even run a place. I guess that depends upon maybe the jockey, the trainer, the owner’s will say, “Come on Nick, you’ve got to make sure you win on this,” so the jockey is trying to win the race. He’s not trying to run 2nd or 3rd. Whereas the jockey to 100/1 shot says, “Gee the owners are going to be so happy if I just run into the first 6 and get a bit of prize money today.”
There’s a bit of psychology there that isn’t reflected in just like if you’re drawing balls from a barrel where the odds are you know of coming out of fixed, it’s not the same for horse racing, there’s a lot more emotion and a lot more other factors that come into play in price setting and price assessment for the various forms of bets.

Dave Duffield: I think quite a few people will be doing some research on that around about now. Thanks for the prompts.
With exotics I’ve been asking people whether they bet proportionately, as in the more fancied runners have more combinations and obviously if you talking trifectas more of the spots for 1st as opposed to outside of 2nd and 3rd and the like. A few other people want to box them. You’re different because of the software you’ve developed so it’s probably a chance to quickly explain that?

Nick Aubrey: Yeah, in most exotics … And the more exotic the bet type the greater the disharmony in the market if you like.
I’m talking more just in general terms the rule of thumb is low odds are over bet and for high odds there’s often not a big enough pool to compensate for the risk. If you’re betting in the middle range, it’s typically the sweet range, it’s the range where you’ve got less of a disadvantage. The trouble is that exotics, the margin that the book or the tote takes out, 25% on the big 6 and the first 4’s versus only 14% on wins. You’ve got to make up that margin somehow. If you’re just betting blind, boxing horses in a trifecta, sadly that’s probably the worst bet type that you can have.
Unless of course the horses that you take are all about the same price which means that there is no inherent disadvantage in doing what you’re doing. Probably the worst bet type is people throwing in the short price favorite to run in a trifecta thinking, “Oh well, it’s got to run somewhere,” and again, because of that favorites typically are over bet in exotics, especially when they don’t win. If you’re taking the favorites for 2nd and 3rd, or just combining them because they’re over bet, some of the dividends they can be pretty woeful compared to the actual probability of that combination’s landing.

Dave Duffield: For your actual betting bank, do you have a static approach where you’re not adjusting it whether you’re on a long-term winning or losing run? Or is it dynamic where you’re updating it more regularly?

Nick Aubrey: My betting style is dynamic where it’s the reverse of proportional staking; you work out your bets based on a percentage of your starting bank and your starting bank is the amount that you’re prepared to lose in total. So only bet according to your means. There is then a way of determining your bet size based on your past betting profile, of what sort of bets do you have? Do you have short price? Do you have more in the $4-$10 range or are they outsiders? From that you can actually determine what percentage of your bank and what percentage of the bet, it should be on each runner, so that all things being equal, your draw down for your bank will be no more than say 50%. All things happening according to how your bank will never be more than half what it was ever staked at.
If you bank goes from $10,000 to $20,000 then the drop down from 20 back to 10 is probably the worst it will get. Therefore, you can continually increase your bets up to whatever level you feel comfortable with, and if you’re a winning punter then it’s automatic adjustment of bet size. You’ll have exponential winnings gradually over time versus if you stick to a static bank where you’re always betting a certain percentage, then you will just be winning that same percentage long term, or winning the same percentage.
I don’t know if I’ve sort of over-complicated it?

Dave Duffield: It sounds like if you’ve got the maths right, then you’ve got the insurance you’re not going to wipe out but at the same time you can take advantage of compounding.

Nick Aubrey: That’s right, exactly. That’s what punting is about. Trying to get the most you can out of your punting dollar.

Dave Duffield: All right, final two questions.
The first one is do you care more about profit on turnover as a percentage, so I suppose your margin? Or is it just bottom line, just profit only?

Nick Aubrey: Well, the old adage is that you can’t eat POT. You can smoke it but you can’t eat it. You’ve probably heard that one before. Profit is the name of the game but to each his own. A smaller punter, they may be happy with small returns as long as they’re getting a good profit on turnover. In the long term, we’re all about profit, aren’t we?

Dave Duffield: Of course. Is winning percentage important?

Nick Aubrey: No, price. Price is the most important.

Dave Duffield: I think that’s the main thing people will pick up from the conversation, you’ve certainly got your point across there.

Nick Aubrey: Okay.

Dave Duffield: Excellent. That’s the list of questions we’ve been asking everyone. Really appreciate you coming on the show, Nick

Nick Aubrey: Great, thanks David. Thanks for having me on.

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Melbourne Cup day tips and analysis

by Admin on November 2, 2015

In this post:

  • Melbourne Cup previews
  • Cup Day specials
  • Derby Day reviews
  • Hail and farewell, American Pharoah
  • Racing news


Melbourne Cup preview (Andrew Hannan)

Historical Factors

These factors are considered annually in this race, and do include the internationals:
•    Personal best career run in their prior race
•    Abbreviated autumn campaign of three races or less
•    5th up
•    Have had to have run a race this campaign in Australia
•    Progressing into the race – form is on a gradual rise

Speed Map

As any speed map with two dozen horses present it does look busy on paper, with Big Orange the one likely to push on and try to lead. Prince Of Penzance then has the opportunity if desired like his last start to be in the early battle. Snow Sky will be in the first few also. Am unsure whether Gust Of Wind’s connections intend on pushing forward also like in Caulfield Cup last time. As like every cup there will be horses trapped deep around midfield/off-midfield and the horses drawn the wider gate will likely be the ones to do so.

Our Market:

This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. CP clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.

As you can see on our raw market, there is some value present. The public market is expected to change on race day as Fame Game inevitably drifts.

Current overlay runners:

n10 TRIP TO PARIS (rated $6.78)
Certainly ticks a lot of boxes into this race. Excellent performance in the Caulfield Cup when staying to the inside and working through the line very well. Beat 3rd and the rest of the field quite well. Like international horses that have had starts in Jul/Aug at home. In June he also obviously won Ascot Gold Cup over 4000m. Having a start already in Australia which was also an =PB rating are significantly positive factors into this race. Can win.

n15 PREFERMENT (rated $7.71)
Never in the Cox Plate race, stablemate obviously dominated. Efforts prior solid including Turnbull Stakes win here. In the past runners, in particular Efficient & Green Moon for Lloyd Williams, have raced flat in the Cox Plate and bounced back in the Melbourne Cup to win. Those two runners were utter stayers like this entire, unlike a star like Fiorente who was accomplished over shorter trips. Comes into this 5th up with a current dominant jockey/trainer combination this spring.

n20 BONDI BEACH (rated $7.93)
The most talented on the UK starts and am shocked at his current price compared to his UK counterparts. Last three starts all rated strongly in his short career thus far. Also have been between 2400-2900m so doubt the 3200m will be an issue. Having runs in late August- mid September beneficial for this. The major query is that he is yet to have a start in Aus for this. Although obviously an overlay am only prepared to have a place ticket on him.

n22 THE UNITED STATES (rated $11.82)
Bold effort and super ride by Hugh Bowman to win MV Cup. Bowman comes off for Moreira so doesn’t lose too much there although the Magic Man hasn’t shown anywhere near his best form outside of HK where he is winning over a quarter of his rides. Last start was a PB performance, but was that his peak performance? Carrying the light weight with a cosy run may get away with rating slightly down or similarly and still threatening.

n4 OUR IVANHOWE (rated $13.83)
Third up advanced again in the Caulfield Cup when looming up and looking the winner for two strides before the eventual winner raced clear. Is fourth up into this, prefer if he had one more run but no doubt he is fit. Gate is a little worry, likely has to settle further back than desired. Collateral figures in Germany are very strong for this race and if the rain hits the track it will only benefit him.

Recommended Bets:
Back the overlays on our market, excluding BONDI BEACH who you can have a place ticket on staked proportionally to a number you’re comfortable with.


Andrew’s full Melbourne Cup day set (ratings, runner comments, speed maps and staking sheet) is a bargain at $45 and you can sign up here.

Saturday’s Derby Day ratings can be viewed in this PDF if you aren’t familiar with the format.

Cup preview with a racing trader

Crownbet’s James Glossop tipped Protectionist in this newsletter last year and here is his take on the 2015 edition:

How does the overseas form line up and is it a strong year?

International form dominates the market but again it’s near impossible to line up. 20 of 24 horses have raced overseas. The Caulfield Cup gave us a good look at most of the unknowns and there were quite a few eye catching runs.

Dominant favourite Fame Game had more flashing lights on it than a Christmas tree in The Caulfield Cup and has been backed pre-post like the number is in the frame. I think we’re all now under the impression the Japanese staying form is the strongest and the only negative I can find is the price.

Trip To Paris’ second to Mongolian Khan in The Caulfield Cup was an impressive Australian debut and he will relish the step up to 3200m. The lightly raced English stayer boasts a good record and no doubt will be competitive.

Max Dynamite is an interesting one. Trounced the likes of Trip To Paris and Big Orange last start in a group 2 race at York over 3300m. That race was a standout career peak performance and I have a strong query on it repeating anything like that over here in a big field, high pressure race. No doubt Dettori will give it every possibly from gate 2 but looks better suited over the jumps for mine!

Bondi Beach is another horse I feel might be under the odds. He is very lightly raced and doesn’t yet have the same credentials as many of his rivals. He seems to have been rushed into the race and gate 18 looks no joy.

Old mate Red Cadeaux is back for another shot at the title and why wouldn’t he be?! He’s already had four cracks at the race finishing second on three occasions. I can’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be competitive again. A great horse who you couldn’t begrudge a win. We have him priced $2.20 to finish in the top 10 and that has already attracted the attention of a few punters.

If you take Fame Game out of the market the race looks very even and I’m not convinced this year’s edition will be overly strong.

Did the barrier draw have much effect on the market?

The barrier draw was conducted on Saturday night and it didn’t have a huge effect on the market. We turned Fame Game in a roll after it drew perfectly in 12. Criterion also drew favourably in 4 and was turned in a roll. Bondi Beach, Excess Knowledge and The Big Orange were drifters after drawing wide.

Which runner is your worst Melbourne Cup result?

The punters have settled on Fame Game. The money started coming as soon as we put up the market and there’s no sign of it stopping. Normally you would expect to see differing opinions in such a big race with so many unknowns but at this stage it’s all one way traffic.

Are there any fancied runners that are a good result in your book?

Second favourite Trip To Paris has been surprisingly unwanted. Criterion is another good result.

What is your best bet in the race?

Fame Game deserves to be favourite but I think its short enough now and I will be looking for some value around it. Preferment has been trained to the minute and is screaming out for both the big track and 3200m. His run was full of merit in The Cox Plate. The way the track played it had no hope. I was also taken by Almoonqith’s Geelong Cup win. David Hayes is flying again and the horse looks to be coming good at the right time.

Crownbet are offering a 150% deposit bonus for new accounts and matched bonus bets up to $25 for everyone on the Melbourne Cup if your horse finishes 2nd to 10th.

More info here.


Derby Day reviews

Ray Hickson and Todd Burmester have reviewed Saturday’s Flemington and Rosehill meetings including some horses to follow.

Check them out here.


Hail and farewell, American Pharoah

‘Just as brilliant as advertised’.

Beating the track record by 5 seconds to achieve the Grand Slam is an unbelievable way to go out.

ESPN Senior Writer Dana O’Neil put together a great piece on American Pharoah’s swansong yesterday and you can read it as well as view the replay here.

Racing news

Tomorrow’s tips
Our best bets package is likely to have a big day tomorrow with bets at Flemington, Randwick, Doomben, Ascot, Morphettville, Muswellbrook and Canberra.

Call our office on 1300 500 057 if you have any questions.

Good punting
David Duffield

© Champion Picks – Australia. Disclaimer: Champion Picks does not accept any responsibility for any potential or actual financial losses incurred directly or indirectly via the use of this site.


Derby Day reviews

by Champion Picks on November 2, 2015

Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

1st Mahuta – Brad Rawiller
2nd Patch Adams – Steven Arnold
3rd Bassett – Daniel Stackhouse

Deadly Secret made a mess of the start but Mahuta flew out. He handed up to Takedown and Bassett moved to second. They broke about six lengths away from Montauk and another couple to Gredington in a very strung out field. When they came up for air Takedown led comfortably with Bassett in his slipstream and the same can be said for Mahuta. Takedown still led by a couple on the turn but they had bunched right up behind him and were closing in. Bassett came off his heels but was quickly headed by Mahuta who swept past him and caused him to lose a bit of ground. Tivaci loomed up wider out with He’s Our Rokkii and Flying Light also trying to run on, Patch Adams was getting runs through the field. Bassett switched out to have another crack at Mahuta at the 200m but he’d missed the boat and Mahuta held on from Patch Adams diving late and Bassett and, in the context of the day, a very nice effort from He’s Our Rokkii running on out wide. Smart ride got Mahuta home.
Follow: Bassett and He’s Our Rokkii if they go on to Sandown and Bassett long term.

Race 2: Wakeful Stakes (2000m)

1st Ambience – James McDonald
2nd Beluga Blue – Hugh Bowman
3rd Muzyka – Brenton Avdulla

My Poppette held her spot from the inside gate to lead Bengal Cat and Lazumba striding up three wide. Ambience landed in the box seat withDawnie Perfect and Bannatyne further out. Beluga Blue had to ease a stride or two while stablemate C’est Beau La Vie couldn’t get in. Bannatyne kept going to get up outside My Poppette then was taken hold of and Bengal Cat whipped up again to serve it up to the leader. They kicked away from Bannatyne and Ambience getting an easy passage. Lazumba and Beluga Blue were next and Dawnie Perfect was being ridden along to improve three wide by the 800m. Bannatyne made a short dash on the turn to join My Poppette and Bengal Cat but it was short lived and they got away. Ambience eased around them at the 400m into the clear while Muzyka was trying to force out and Beluga Blue sneaking along the fence. Dawnie Perfect was still coming wider out. Ambience put paid to the field at the 200m and raced right away for a dominant win over Beluga Blue on the fence and Muzyka with Dawnie Perfect close up. From the back Zarabeel ran on and the leaders My Poppette and Bengal Cat carved each other up. Big improvement by Ambience here.
Follow: from the Oaks point of view Dawnie Perfect’s run was very good.

Race 3: Guvera Stakes (1400m)

1st Disposition – Damien Oliver
2nd San Diego – James McDonald
3rd Hosting – Damian Lane

Mr Utopia was slowly out and wanted to buck at the tail. Charmed Harmony made a bid for the lead but was kept off the fence by Artlee who kicked through. Sadaqa sat up third with Red Excitement and Richie’s Vibe inside him. Charlie Boy had three wide cover outside Messeneand San Diego on the fence midfield. Disposition went back to last from a wide gate with Mr Utopia not participating. Artlee ran clear before the turn, which is a big effort in any race Charmed Harmony contests, and rolled off the fence. Most of the riders followed him out there and Richie’s Vibe went underneath the leader. Charmed Harmony was still there on the outside with Sadaqa and Charlie Boy peeling out to chime in. While all this was going on, San Diego took the rails run to hit the lead at the 400m and Disposition followed him through with Hosting. Disposition and San Diego singled out from the 200m to fight the race out on the fence with Hosting a couple of lengths back getting clear of Artlee and Charmed Harmony. Disposition just held on from San Diego with Hosting holding third clearly. Charmed Harmony stuck on for fourth and there was a nice run just behind him from the import Kool Kompany first-up while Famous Seamus ran on down the outside without threatening. Artlee went too hard and is better than that. Don’t over-rate the performances of the first two home, while they were good runs, as the fence was clearly the place to be all day and they were gifted runs when the leader ran out and everyone followed.
Follow: like to see Kool Kompany again.

Race 4: Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)

1st Japonisme – Glyn Schofield
2nd Keen Array – Damian Lane
3rd Counterattack – Blake Shinn

Super One showed plenty of speed to burn across and lead Japonisme inside him and Counterattack outside with Ragazzo Del Corsa on the fence. Dal Cielo and Keen Array were handy and Black Vanquish and Hellbent were further out. Exosphere was only fairly away and was in the second half. Super One crossed to the fence as they reached the course proper and Counterattack stayed with him, Dal Cielo strode up three wide and Japonisme waited behind them. Exosphere had worked into the clear at the 400m and was winding up. Hellbent tried to go with him. Counterattack hit the lead soon after as Super One struggled. Keen Array and Japonisme were bumping and Exosphere was there to win but was under a heap of pressure which is unusual for him. Inside the 200m Japonisme spotted an inside run and darted through to claim Counterattack and Keen Array ran to second. Exosphere couldn’t reach them and Japonisme scooted clear along the rail to win easily over Keen Array and Counterattack. Exosphere lost ground on that trio in the last bit and Mogador made some ground from near the tail to be right on his heels.
Follow: none.

Race 5: Lexus Stakes (2500m)

1st Excess Knowledge – Dwayne Dunn
2nd Zanteca – Damian Lane
3rd Havana Cooler – James McDonald

Bohemian Lily had little trouble finding the lead, unlike a week earlier at Moonee Valley, and Zanteca came over with her. High Midnightand Ruling Dynasty landed in good spots while Chance To Dance was caught wide. The Godolphin pair of Havana Cooler and Elhaame were next and Manalapan had a three wide trail. Excess Knowledge was also trapped wide near the tail. Bohemian Lily loped along at her leisure and eventually Chance To Dance worked into second with Ruling Dynasty holding the box seat. Manalapan kept creeping forward and coming to the home turn as they bunched Zanteca worked onto his back and High Midnight moved four deep which gave Excess Knowledge a bit of cover as he improved. Havana Cooler was held up on the fence as Elhaame managed to get to the outside into some air. High Midnight hit the lead at the 400m from Manalapan but Excess Knowledge hadn’t been let go and Elhaame joined in seemingly going well. Zanteca squeezed through inside Excess Knowledge and Havana Cooler was still looking for a run. Excess Knowledge and Zanteca came away in the last 200m from Elhaame who couldn’t stay the 2500m. Things got a little tight but Excess Knowledge held off Zanteca to earn a place in the Melbourne Cup. Havana Cooler nailed Elhaame in the last stride to grab third. The winner had to survive a protest which was dismissed, a fair result as the runner-up had her chance.
Follow: If Elhaame sticks around he’d be an excellent 2000m horse.

Race 6: Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m)

1st Gailo Chop – Ben Melham
2nd Rising Romance – Damian Lane
3rd Contributer – James McDonald

There were five looking for a forward spot early on but Gailo Chop held them all out on the fence to lead Stratum Star and Flamingo Starlet them go. Set Square and Rising Romance wound up in good spots clear of EcaudorPornichet settled midfield around Magic Artist andContributer raced in the clear behind them. Gailo Chop strode along in the middle stages lear of Stratum Star while Flamingo Star found himself three wide and had to press forward. Set Square moved into the box seat with Rising Romance looking to travel very well. Gailo Chop led down to the 300m but Rising Romance seemed to have him cold and Contributer loomed up appearing a threat too. Pornichet was further out while Set Square was still behind them but under a bit of pressure. Magic Artist crept up on the inside as well. Rising Romance’s run started to end at the 100m and Gailo Chop regained the lead, Contributer couldn’t quite get there and Magic Artist was storming home right into a dead end. Set Square had her chance and Ecuador battled on. Gailo Chop came off the canvas to win, Rising Romance no excuses and Contributer a much improved effort but Magic Artist should have won comfortably. He still hasn’t got out. Big flops were Stratum Star and Flamingo Star, the former has had a long prep while the latter may be a bit of a pretender.
Follow: Magic Artist stays in Australia and looks talented.

Race 7: Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m)

1st Tarzino – Craig Newitt
2nd Etymology – James McDonald
3rd Kia Ora Koutou – Joey Azzopardi

Quite a few wanted to go forward and Palace Tycoon was first to the fence with Tarzino following him over and Colonel Custer wider out.Kia Ora Koutou had the fence and Red Alto and Shards were in the first half dozen. Colonel Custer kept pushing on and he found the front going to the back straight with Shards joining him. Ayers Rock moved around them wider out and just as the pace was coming off Iron Bosssprinted quickly and put the speed back in. He opened up by three on Shards and they booted five clear of the rest with Ayers Rock getting to third between Colonel Custer and Lizard Island trapped out. This relegated Tarzino and Palace Tycoon to midfield and Etymology found himself wide outside that pair and Kia Ora Koutou shuffled back along the fence. Must have been 20 lengths first to last at the 1200m but that was cut right back by the 800m. Well before the turn Red Alto took off and flushed Tarzino out. The leaders caved in very quickly and Lizarfd Island and Red Alto hit the lead at the top of the straight. Etymology was held up for a few strides and Tarzino rounded them up under a hold. Pay Up Bro was on his back and Kia Ora Koutou had to do some weaving. Tarzino was let down at the 300m and he sprinted away with Etymology doing the chasing as Red Alto started to weaken, as did Pay Up Bro while Kia Ora Koutou was still coming. Tarzino had the race in his keeping and held a dominant two lengths on Etymology and Kia Ora Koutou arrived in time to grab third from Red Alto, who was gallant. They came in like browns cows after such a strong tempo but the best horse won the race and won it easily.
Follow: the first two should go on in the autumn.

Race 8: Group 1 Myer Classic (1600m)

1st Politeness – Dwayne Dunn
2nd Fenway – James McDonald
3rd Azkadellia – Luke Currie

Solicit was on a mission to lead from out wide but Miss Rose De Lago held her out. Jessy Belle was a lot more forward than usual aroundVergara and Fenway found a good spot with La PasseRoyal Descent was better than midfield between May’s Dream and AbidewithmeStay With Me went right back to last from the outside gate and that was the end of her winning chances. Miss Rose De Lago and Solicit ran along a bit and Jessy Belle was first under pressure as Fenway strode up on the turn to join the leaders. La Passe was badly held up and May’s Dream started to loom past the 400m. Politeness followed her into the race and she travelled very strongly while Royal Descent was hard at it. Stay With Me was still last and Azkadellia was trying to find runs through closer to the fence but without any luck. Fenway and May’s Dream got to Solicit 200m out but Politeness was still cruising outside them. Jessy Belle was sticking on while Amicus and Stay With Me made some ground wider out. Azkadellia was still ducking and weaving to get through but was motoring. Politeness was let down and found enough to run out the mile and hold off Fenway, who was game, and Azkadellia flew through for third. She should have won easily but was again cruelled by track bias. May’s Dream was honest as usual, Amicus fair and Stay With Me ran well but should have gone forward with the light weight not back.
Follow: everyone has seen how good Azkadellia is and surely she can win a decent race before the prep is over.

Race 9: Stakes (1200m)

1st Eclair Choice – Dominic Tourneur
2nd Hot Snitzel – Steven Arnold
3rd Dothraki – Blake Shinn

Under The Louvre began well and was up there early on with Bring Me The Maid and GeneralifeEclair Choice worked across and he took over after 200m and made it onto the fence very softly. Hot Snitzel let him go then sat up outside and Dothraki wasn’t far behind to his outside with FontelinaDelectation was buried behind the pack. Eclair Choice wasn’t pressured at all and at the 300m he was shaken up. Hot Snitzel was sticking with him but not gaining and Dothraki also loomed. Generalife and Under The Louvre were under pressure behind them looking for a run and Delectation was into the clear and making up ground but a fair way off them. Eclair Choice just kept going and after getting such an easy lead hard up against the fence he was entitled to win. Hot Snitzel and Dothraki filled the placings and Delectation was close up but had no hope the way the race was run. Generalife not much luck and Under The Louvre was fair. They got away and the others in the race were never a threat. They handed the race to the winner.
Follow: Delectation and Generalife looked a bit unlucky.

Specials from the meeting: Kool Kompany, Magic Artist, Delectation, Generalife.


Rosehill Review

Race 1

1st Yankee Rose- Jason Collett
2nd Faraway Town -Jay Ford
3rd Telperion Tim – Clark
The two-year-olds got them under way in the first and Telperion was sent out at just better than yours for theirs odds from the O’Shea stable.  He began well on the inside to lead but had company in front with King Of War moving up on the outside to run to a narrow lead and the pace looked pretty good.  Pyx Chamber got a nice run behind the pace in third although staying off the fence which parked Anauel three deep.  Faraway Town took advantage of the fence being clear to rail up nicely before the turn. Into the straight King Of War was quickly a spent force and Telperion kicked away, but inside the furlong it had also had enough and Yankee Rose went through on the inside with Faraway Town putting in its claim on the outside.  In the run to the line Yankee Rose finished it off best to get the money from Faraway Town.  The run of Telperion was very good given it was its first race start and it got no peace in front.

Follow: Telperion

Race 2

1st Dance Of Heroes – Josh Parr
2nd Quick Strike – Tye Angland
3rd Lady Le Fay – Jason Collett

1800m for race two and Lord De Air from along the inside was the best to begin and took up the lead intially until Dance Of Heroes worked around the outside and ran to the front. Quick Strike settled a lot closer today in third and the fourth as Faralitosmoved into third.  Dance Of Heroes had a clear lead in the middle stages of the race and still maintained a length and a half lead around the home turn.  At the 300m mark, Quick Strike as putting in a good run to come at Dance Of Heroes and almost claimed it at the furlong, but Dance Of Heroes was too tough in the run to the line and held off the challenge.  Quick Strike may not be a genuine horse that wants to win based on this effort. Lady Le Fay finished off pretty well down the outside and Marvelous Ceramibo was the one that was the unluckiest out of a few that struggled to find room behind the first two home.

Follow: None to follow

Race 3

1st Religify – Jason Collett
2nd Fine Mist – Winona Costin
3rd Inz’n’Out – Josh Parr

Inz’n’Out was sent out favourite, from the well backed Religify in race three.  Inz’n’Out jumped to the front but Religify was holding the fence with Fine Mist out their outside.  Inz’n’Out ran about a length clear but never actually crossed to the fence and as they came around the turn there was not much between them.  Up to the furlong it was almost a line of three with Religify kicking back against Inz’n’Out and Fine Mist looking to get on terms on the outside.  In the run to the line Religify was the one that did best and came away by about three quarters of a length in what was a good effort first up from a spell.  Inz’n’Out dropped off in the final part and was beaten for second spot by Fine Mist who did well after sitting wide all the way.  Although it was a bunched finish, those three had the wood on the rest.

Follow: The first three home here can all win races

Race 4

1st We’re Sure – Winona Costin
2nd Perfect Dare – Tim Clark
3rd Lady Sniper – Christian Reith

Lady Sniper was best to begin in race four with Perfect Dare moving up into second spot and Magic Alibi was three deep in third.  Chamarel got a nice run in fourth spot behind the pace.  Mid race, Magic Alibi was eased back to take the trail behind the speed.  Into the straight, Perfect Dare went up to challenge Lady Sniper, but Lady Sniper repelled that challenge and looked set for victory inside the furlong pole.  Perfect Dare raised another effort in the last part and looked like it would claim Lady Sniper, butWe’re Sure came from what looked an impossible position with 100m to go to go up along the fence and hit the front in the shadows of the post and get the money in what was a very impressive effort.  Dinghu Mountain was sent out favourite in this race and never raised a yelp in what was an ordinary effort.

Follow: We’re Sure

Race 5

1st Invienna – Winona Costin
2nd Ashjata – Thomas Huet
3rd Luxury – Tye Angland

1300m for race five on the card, and when they settled One Son took it up from The Big Rig with Lion Of Africa third but out three deep and Melberra Star also three wide behind it.  Around the turn, One Son and The Big Rig still had about a length break over the rest of them, but at the 300m mark Invienna who had enjoyed a nice run strode up to them and when we was gunned at the furlong pole he sprinted very nicely and the issue was soon beyond doubt.  Ashjata raised a nice effort down the outside as did Luxury back in the middle, but they didn’t get near Invienna who showed a nice turn of foot here.

Follow: Invienna, Ashjata

Race 6

1st Artistry – Thomas Huet
2nd Telepathic – Jason Collett
3rd Tarangower – Jay Ford

1500m for race 6 with Nevagotavote running to a clear lead over Harry Hotspur with Moral Victory working around the outside three wide in third.  The favourite, Artistry was stalking them in midfield whilst the second pick in the market, Telepathic was back last giving the pace about eight lengths.  Around the turn and up to the 300m mark and Artistry was cut loose on the outside and claimed the lead at the furlong and looked set for victory.  Meanwhile, Telepathic from last initially took inside runs and then was brought wider and finished off well, but was never going to get to Artistry who was ridden a treat and won well.  Telepathic might be one of those horses who always suggests to back it next time but doesn’t get the job done.  The ride didn’t help today however.

Follow: None to follow

Race 7

1st Alart – Greg Ryan
2nd Press Report – Christian Reith
3rd Anyaas – Jess Taylor

A nice start in race seven with the exception of Fiftyshadesofgrey who missed it along the inside.  Miss Tenpins showed the most pace to lead them up.  Lady Jivago was up in second on the outside with Frill Seeking getting a nice run on the fence in fourth.  Not long after the start Magic Of Dreams which was well in the market dropped right out to last looking like something may have been wrong.  Miss Tenpins still had a clear lead into the straight, with Frill Seeking trying to come off its back and issue a challenge and Anyaas putting it its run on the outside.  Up to the furlong Miss Tenpins still had it, but Alart was the fresh horse on the scene and it ran to the front soon after and had the race won.  It got a little tired late with Press Report putting in a nice finishing effort into second and Anyaas maintaining its run to hold onto third.  Frill Seeking didn’t do a great deal in the last part of the race.  Fiftyshadesofgrey finished off best of the back markers suggesting it should be followed.

Follow: Press Report, Fiftyshadesofgrey

Race 8

1st I Can Rock – Tim Clark
2nd Absalon – Brodie Loy
3rd Slots – Lester Grace

Slots looked a bit slow to go in race eight from the inside gate.  Absalon was restrained back to a clear last after they jumped. There were a few that wanted a piece of the front but Freeze The Charges had a wing on every hoof and led them up clearly, but looked to have bolted in front.  Mid race it was restrained a bit but still led clearly from I’m Usain and Shadow Force was in third. Those three had a good break on the rest of the field, indicating that the pace was pretty strong.  Around the turn Freeze The Charges still had it but it was shown the persuader at the 300m mark and looked out of tickets.  It kept kicking until inside the furlong, but I Can Rock soon emerged out of the pack and had the race in its keeping from thereafter.  Plenty of them charged from the back with the best of those being Absalon who ran into second with Slots running third ahead of Mr Entertainer.

Follow: Absalon

Race 9

1st Gamblestown – Tye Angland
2nd Heavens Above – Winona Costin
3rd Duca Valentinois – Tim Clark

To the last and Murvate continued its bad barrier manners missing it clearly here.  Oxford Heart ran to the front initially but it had company as Perfect Weapon went to the front and Gold Horizon strode forward on the outside to join it.  Wild ‘n’ Famous took a nice trail in third with Lofty’s Menu in the one out and one back trail.  Midfield the eventual winner Gamblestown was three wide. Perfect Weapon had a clear lead around the bend which it maintained narrowly up to the furlong pole, but soon after there were plenty of challengers where Gamblestown hit the front despite its wide run.  Heavens Above got through and was challenging and looked like it would go to Gamblestown, but in the last bit of the race Gamblestown found some more and held on for a good win after a wide run in transit.  Back over on the fence, there were some excuses for Kiseki Dane who should have finished closer. There were plenty of runners all over the place here without a great deal of room, so it is the kind of race that will pay to watch the replay of.

Follow: Gamblestown, Heavens Above

Specials from the meeting: Telperion, We’re Sure, Press Report




A Derby Day Special

by Admin on October 30, 2015

CrownBet Double Deposit Bonus


Derby Day is a massive highlight of the Australian racing year and Saturday’s 9 race card looks outstanding. The day is highlighted by the Group 1 Victoria Derby worth over $1million dollars. The Derby is clearly the highlight of the day however The Mackinnon Stakes, Myer Classic & The Coolmore Stud Stakes are all quality Group 1 races.

Tarzino is the dominant favourite to take out the Derby at $2.50*. He has flown home all preparation with this race clearly in mind and if he settles well he will be extremely hard to beat. Kia Ora Koutou has never lost a race and is bred to stay the distance. He has drawn the inside gate so he should find himself in a good position to have the last crack at the leaders. At $8* he is definitely worth consideration. Shards, Extra Choice & Get the Picture have also been met with support.

Place a fixed odds win bet on any horse in the last 4 races at Flemington and if your selection runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th you will receive a matched bonus bet up to $50*.

View the Derby market here.

Join CrownBet today and receive up to $1,000* in Bonus Bets when you make your first deposit in to your account.



If you have any queries, feel free to send an email or please contact our Customer Service team on 13 CROWNBET (13 27696 238).
Good luck,

The CrownBet Team

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