World Cup cricket preview

by Admin on March 25, 2015

What a game! The first semi-final certainly didn’t disappoint. NZ played gallantly and chased a mammoth total but you have to feel sorry for South Africa, the rain coming when it did really cost them the game.

Australia Vs India. ($1.48 vs $3.06)

The game is to be held at the SCG and reports state that India will “not be unhappy” with the pitch getting prepared. This leads me to think it will be a classical SCG deck that will turn, this is vital to the game as India possess a few great spinners if not the best spinners in the world for ODI cricket in Ashwin and Jadeja.

India continues to hit their straps at the right time which is pivotal in a World Cup campaign I shouldn’t have written them off as lightly after the Australian tour. The issue India has is that they haven’t been pushed by a side this tournament which is a concern, whereas Australia got a great shakeup in the Quarters by an underrated Pakistan bowling attack.

Providing the SCG pitch resembles one of the same calibre of the quarter-final played between Sri Lanka and South Africa, a game in which spin dominated (7 of 11 wickets taken in the match) then I think India are a massive chance to cause an upset. Australia can struggle to play a turning ball whereas India are renowned at playing spin with ease. The area where India can struggle is with pace swing and bounce which are attributes that Australia possess.

In my opinion both teams have similar weaknesses and it will be the team that can adapt who wins this tightly contested game. Both sides have “Big game players” Australia have the experience of Clarke and Watson (who looks reinvigorated down the middle of the order) who have played WC finals before and the youthful experience of Cummings/Hazelwood, “The big show” Glenn Maxwell and match winners like Warner, Finch, Faulkner, Mitch Johnson & Mitch Starc. In comparison India have Virat Kohli and Dhoni as their Big game players with WC finals experience and the flare of Rohit Sharma and Rahane.

I think there is some serious value to be found in backing India. I am suggesting to take 1u on India at $3.06 (click here to join Matchbook) and then wait for the toss. If India are chasing then I will be looking at adding another unit if the price is still above 3’s. I rate them a 40% chance if batting first and a 50% chance if chasing. I feel that there will be a great chance at some point during the game to arb out a nice profit.

I think the following are also value but please check twitter for a final update on all bets as these will significantly change depending on the pitch conditions. The only bet I have locked in at this present time is 1u on India.

Mitchell Starc Over 39.5 Player Performance (Crownbet) at $1.60 – This is great value as Mitchell Starc will bowl at the death were wickets naturally present themselves. He will also open the bowling with the new ball seaming and swinging he should get at least one wicket at either end of the innings to secure a win for this bet. 2u play at first glance

Maxwell Over 45.5 (Crownbet) at $1.88 – This guy continues to amaze, he piles on the runs, fields in catching positions and rarely misses a chance and he is also Australia front line spinner which makes this a great play IF Australia DON’T play Doherty. 1u play if Doherty plays 2u play if he doesn’t.

David Warner over 36.5 (Sportsbet) at $1.88 – I think David taps into the controversy that has followed him since the series against India earlier in the summer. He is naturally a big game player. He should clear this line with runs alone but if not I would pencil him in for at least one catch due to his positioning in the field. 1u play

Virat Kohli over 35.5 (Sportsbet) at $1.88 - Kohli is a big game player and he will make sure he digs in against Australia, he was one of the batsman that stood up against Australia in the Tri Series and Test matches earlier this summer and he should construct a good innings against Australia. .5u Play

Virat Kohli Top Team Run Scorer (Sportsbet) at $4 – See above reasoning .5u Play

Michael Clarke Top Team Run Scorer (Sportsbet) at $6 – I think Clarke lifts for his team this match, he showed great form against the Indian attack earlier this summer even when he was severely limited in back movement at Adelaide. He is also arguable the best player of spin Australia has. .75u Play

Shane Watson 6 and out - Watson bowled 5 overs against Pakistan and 7 overs against Sri Lanka, I have a feeling India choose him as the bowler to attack and will hence create one chance off of his bowling for a wicket. He should also hit a 6 with his new position down the order, providing the top order get a good start I think he will come out and attempt to bludgeon the ball over the fence. $3 is overs for this market. .5u Play

Good luck everyone and good luck to the Australian team…. I think they may need it.

Andrew Malone @malonecricpicks

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Betting 360 Ep 077: AFL Season preview

by David on March 25, 2015

This week on the podcast we’re joined by an AFL betting expert who has developed a betting model good enough to consistently beat the bookies.

Dan’s love of Aussie Rules football, experience as an actuary and also working with a large corporate bookie set him along the path to being a professional punter and he shares some great information on the show.

Punting Insights:

  • How the model has evolved over the last 3 years
  • Why player ratings are an integral factor
  • How weather can be used to your betting advantage

Today’s Guest:
Dan’s AFL betting tips

Get the Transcript:

>> Click Here to Read the Transcript

Dave: I must admit I am more of an AFL fan than NRL, so I can’t wait for the season to start. So tell us a bit about your background, firstly, and how you got involved in betting.

Dan: Yeah, sure. Growing up I’ve always been a big sport lover.
My old man was quite into the horses back in the day, as well. I guess I had a bit of exposure just to the chat of odds and betting and all how it works from a young age.
I guess as most young Aussie blokes do, when I turned 18, I enjoyed having a little weekend multi on the footy with my friends.
It wasn’t probably until I turned 21 that I got a bit more seriously into the betting. I was studying actuarial studies and my best friend who I was studying in the course with, he was basically in the same boat. We both loved sport and betting so we started thinking a bit more about using numbers and trying to actually calculate probabilities, in terms of the outcome of sporting events.
We got a bit more into it that way and when we finished off our university degree, we actually both worked at a bookmaker for about 1 year, just while we finished off the studies.
That definitely was where we got right into the industry and became very much interested in it.

Dave: The actuarial studies, it’s a common breeding ground for punters. Do you want to just explain to people who haven’t heard before, what it is and again how that may apply to the betting world?

Dan: Yeah, definitely. It is quite a common segue, from what we’ve heard from other people.
Basically, actuarial studies is all about quantifying risk using historic data and analysis.
In terms of the actual studying side of things, it’s a lot of statistics, a lot of mathematics and it also has quite a heavy finance element.
Obviously the main areas that the study of actuary leads to is the banking and insurance industry.
In terms of the principles you learn, everything in terms of statistics and analysis and using past data to predict future risks and future outcomes that’s very much applicable to the sporting world and given Champion Data nowadays has so much great data in the market for AFL, there is high quality data that we can use to then try and predict future outcomes.

Dave: So you were doing the actuarial studies and also working at a bookmaker. Was it good to get that hands-on industry experience?

Dan: Oh, definitely. Before we went to the bookmaker, obviously we had some sort of idea about betting and how it all works but to actually go to the bookmaker and see the big bets come on, see how the market moves, see how the market is shaped, see what teams are public teams where you might see all of the game day small bets on one team who’s quite a popular public team but then the largest customers are betting on the not so popular public team.
Just understanding how books are balanced, risk exposure and how everything tied together was definitely really interesting to see and is still valuable today, when we’re on the punting side of things now.

Dave: Regarding the punting side of things, you’ve developed an AFL model. How has that come about and how has that evolved over the last few years?

Dan: It’s probably been a 3 year process to get it where it is today.
It pretty much started with … At University we had a bit of Excel experience and learned a bit about coding. Basically we wanted to start trying to use statistics to apply to our betting, so we thought the first thing we need is data.
The first step was learning how to scrape data from the web, so you can get a lot of historical data without manually copying and pasting it.
That wasn’t too difficult and once we had data it was probably a solid 6 months to a year where we were betting small amounts and having a play around, but we were still just figuring out how to work the data into a good format for a model, and actually how to produce a prediction using the past statistics.
I’d say the first year it was very primitive and we were betting accordingly, not getting too involved in the punting side of things.
Once we got some experience at the bookmaker, learned a little more, we developed a pretty decent model which basically was using past match data for each team who were playing on the weekend and then based on that past data, the model basically predicts an outcome for the game on the weekend, which you’d then adjust for a home ground advantage.
That model had pretty good results, but then this off-season and during last season we spent a lot of time enhancing the model with the player ratings component.
Instead of just using team data, we now use individual player data, as well.
As you know, with injuries teams will be changing from week to week, so that’s the big improvement over the past year, that’s kind of got the model to where it is today.

Dave: So with the player ratings, how far back do you go and how heavily do you weight recent form or injuries, return from injuries or anything like that? I understand why you’d want to incorporate the player ratings into the model, but it probably adds a few layers of complexity for you, as well, so how do you handle that?

Dan: Yeah, definitely. Basically, the first thing we do is … We use 3 years of data, for players, because we feel that’s enough and going back any further you might be rating someone a bit highly, who was in the prime of their career 5 years ago, but they might be on the decline now.
Generally, we get 3 years data if it’s available. Obviously for the younger players, we’ll take what’s available, whether it’s 1 or 2 years.
Then, we have a player rating for each of their seasons and that actual player rating is a unique equation we developed and we did that for each position.
There is a different player ratings equation for midfielders, defenders, forwards and ruckmen.
That equation is based on the player’s average game statistics.
For midfielders it looks at … Just a few of them would be contested possessions, inside 50 entries, goal assists and stuff like that.
Each of those different statistics carries a different weighting and basically, a players rating for a season will be what they averaged in each game for all of those statistics and then the equation is applied to that number.
Then, we basically have a players rating for the past 3 years and then it’s a pretty unique player-to-player decision on how we give them a final number.
With your kind of veteran players who are pretty consistent year in, year out, you might weight the past 3 years pretty equally, with a bit more emphasis on maybe last year.
With rookies and younger players who’ve only played a few games, you obviously just take what data you have and you update it each week and week-to-week their rating might change quite a lot.
And, as you mentioned, players coming back from injury, usually we’ll give a slight deduction for those players, just until they actually prove that their form is up to scratch to what it was before the injury.
Basically we rate every player on every roster for every team. That enables us to be able to calculate a team rating each week, once teams are released on Thursday night.

Dave: Do you find the market normally underreacts or overreacts to team changes? Like, if Gary Ablett is not playing for Gold Coast, or Buddy Franklin’s not playing for Sydney, how does your model compare to what the market actually does when a key player is out?

Dan: Yeah, definitely a good question. We’ve benchmarked player injuries where it’s a superstar like Ablett or Franklin, we find that the market reacts quite aggressively, and in some cases that’s rightly so, but it also depends on the replacement factor.
It depends on the depth of a squad. If you have a team like Hawthorn and they have an injury to one of their good midfielders, they probably have a pretty good player coming in to replace him so our adjustment might not be that great, because the bloke stepping in is not too far behind him, in terms of player rating.
Whereas, if you have Ablett, maybe 2 years ago up at the Suns when they were still very young and developing, when he’s out, the bloke coming in is probably of a rookie status or quite a low player rating. In that case, those big moves are often justified.
Last year we found the most value, just in terms of general personnel changes. Not when the best player was out, maybe when 3 players were out who were in their squad every week, and there quite good players, above average, in terms of an AFL standard.
Then the 3 replacements coming in could have been rookie or below average AFL players, so you could actually see … We might adjust just as much for if one of the superstars was out in those instances, but we believe the market really doesn’t adjust in situations like that, so that’s where we often find the value.

Dave: In terms of the efficiency of the market, as a general rule, the more liquid the market, the more efficient that it is. How do you find AFL and what kind of return do you think is realistic for what the model can achieve?

Dan: The AFL market is framed in an interesting way. On a Monday you’ll get some of the corporate bookmakers opening up their first lines, but realistically it’s not reasonable to expect to be able to get a bet on at some of these shops, because as I’m sure everyone knows, once you start winning, plenty of the corporates will be quick to cut off your account.
Generally, we find that you’re not going to be able to get a proper bet on until probably Thursday, which is when Pinnacle is open, when TAB, when Tatts, when TopSport, which are generally the bookmakers who are more willing to accept a bigger bet.
When they’re open on a Thursday, we find that’s a reasonable time to enter the market, and it’s a reasonable time for people following to be able to get on, whether they’re a $100 punter or a $1000 punter.
In terms of the efficiency on a Thursday, we definitely don’t think the market’s hit its optimal level of efficiency. Last year you’d see, on a Monday, the lines are often pretty bad. There’s a lot of value there but the problem is you can’t get a bet on. Come Thursday, they’re often still quite inefficient.
In terms of our model, last year we were still able to beat the closing line on a Thursday for line betting about 70-75% of the time, I think it was, and we were beating it by about an average of 2 or 3 points.
Basically that means we were betting and getting a number that, by game day, the market had moved towards our bet 3 points, which obviously is an indicator that you’re tipping the right side.

Dave: A few serious sports punters use that as a key indicator don’t they? The results of the game can have a fair bit of variance, but if you’re actually beating the closing line more often than not and you said basically 3 times out of 4, that’s a really good sign that you’re on the right teams.

Dan: Yeah, definitely.
Especially with the AFL. If you can get in on a Thursday, there’s still some really good numbers out there. Last year there was several instances where we beat the closing number by 5 and even 10 points or more sometimes.
You could have a situation where you have $1.90 and that same proposition on game day is into about $1.50. If you can consistently do that, you’re definitely going to be in the green at the end of the season.

Dave: I’m not sure how much detail you want to go into here, because you can’t guarantee there aren’t bookmakers listening. In fact, I’d probably guarantee there are some, but in terms of incorporating weather conditions into your bets that’s something that you take very seriously, and you think can provide an edge?

Dan: Yeah, definitely. The weather definitely plays a part in line betting. The particular one we find that we want to be careful of is, we don’t really want to be betting on a big minus, so a big favourite to cover a 50 point margin if it’s going to be wet, because obviously with AFL when the ball is wet the game can turn scrappy and it’s often quite low scoring.
The last thing you want to do is be betting on a team to smash someone by 10 goals when it might even be hard for them to score 10 goals in the whole match.
You can find an edge in that way, in terms of betting on the plus, on occasion, but not always. Obviously you still want to make sure you actually like the team you’re betting on.
The big place we find value with the weather is on the totals. Basically, when it’s wet, the ball’s hard to handle, it gets slippery, it’s harder to kick accurately at goal.
Obviously the total for the game is going to be a lot lower.
In our model we can actually weight for the past 4 or 5 years of data, wet weather games, to try and actually quantify the impact of the wet on a game, rather than just take a guess, “Oh, it’s going to be wet, we’ll take 10 points off our number”.
We actually have a way to weight the wet games and see the actual impact on all of the different statistics and thus predict our revised total. Basically, the way we get an edge is obviously taking unders in the wet, but we find we can get good numbers if we have a good read on the weather early on game day. We can get the tip out before the market has properly adjusted to the weather.
I think last year there was probably 7 or 8 examples where we got a really good number on a wet weather game. We bet on an under and it might have dropped another 5 or 10 points by the time the game started and it most cases they came in comfortably.

Dave: There’s a fair bit of work that’s gone into the model, and then obviously it’s evolved over the years, but when you put all that together what’s a realistic winning percentage to expect?

Dan: Basically, in the long term we’re aiming to get it around about sort of 57 to 58% number. Which in turn will give us around 8 to 11% on the $1.90, $1.91 lines that are widely available for the AFL. Obviously the smaller punters can even increase that return if they can utilise some of the promotions out there, like $2 power lines that Topsport and a few of the other bookmakers have and can give that ROI a bit of a boost.

Dave: And one of the things I didn’t ask you, was actually why the love for AFL? You’re Sydney based, so how did that passion for AFL came about?

Dan: It’s a bit of a strange one I guess. Just growing up it was my preference and I played a little bit of AFL along with soccer. I was probably never tough enough to play rugby league or the rugby union, so I never quite got right into them.
I like it just in terms of the viewing, I think it’s definitely the best game with the skills and all the different elements to it rather than, I find that rugby can be a bit bash and crash at times. Definitely love the AFL and I’ll definitely be down in Melbourne a few times this year to get to the MCG for a few of the big games.

Dave: Lucky you. All right mate, we’ll leave it there for now. I think it’s given guys a good overview of how you’ve gone about it and there’ll be plenty more information on the site in coming weeks. All the best for this season.

Dan: Yeah cheers Dave, we’ll chat soon.

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Semi Finals time and the teams that qualified are the Big 4! Not at all surprised that New Zealand, Australia and South Africa made the Semis but India look a completely different side and could cause a big upset come Thursday. (More on that game in Thursday’s newsletter)

New Zealand takes on South Africa in what is sure to be a great contest at Eden Park, the ground where South Africa failed to chase 222 against Pakistan in a strange batting performance by the powerhouse nation. It is also where Trent Boult decimated the Australian batting line up. Although small, Eden Park has been a low scoring venue this WC but that is about to change in my opinion. There is no way there are less than 450 runs scored today.

South Africa’s intensity in their Quarter final performance was something beautiful to behold, it appears the “chokers” tag has fired them up in an effort to prove everyone wrong. If they can repeat that intensity they stand a real chance against New Zealand.

New Zealand are a quality batting and bowling unit, their one weakness lies in that there bowlers (especially now that Milne is ruled out) rely on the ball swinging. If the ball doesn’t swing the Kiwis struggle. The batting line up is arguably the best in this World Cup, this was clearly seen in the Quarters when McCullam and Williamson got out early, West Indies thought they had a chance but Guptil is one of the most underrated opening batsmen in the game today. This side has a great mix of anchors and power players with batting experience all the way down the order, you never feel like the Kiwis could get outmatched with the willow.

South Africa has a bowling attack that has an edge over the Kiwis’. Morkel and Steyn provide pace, accuracy and swing with Tahir and Dumminy for some quality spin bowling. Their batting is a bit of an issue though. They are yet to successfully chase a big total and that can be an issue because I can’t see the kiwis getting bowled out for less than 270…

I think I’m going to trade on this game. I’m backing NZ early at $2.20 on matchbook.com for 2 units.  Dependent on the game situation I will be looking at backing South Africa at a similar quote. I have this as a dead even game on paper but I think NZ just have the edge as they are the most consistent team of the two. The confidence level rises to 60% if they bat first.

I think there is some good value in player performance markets. Lines are taken from Sportsbet.

Amla Over 37.5 @ 1.88
AB Over 39.5 @ 1.88
Williamson over 34.5 @ 1.88
B McCullum over 36.5 @ 1.88

Think the above are all value, units will be varied dependent on what the pitch looks like in the morning. I think it’s a 300 plays 250 game if NZ bat first and a 280 plays 285 game if NZ chase.
I also really like NZ over 6.5 6’s at $1.68 also from sports bet. Will be looking at taking for 3u if the pitch looks like a batting friendly wicket.

As always happy punting and check twitter before play for all final bets and staking plans.

Andrew Malone
@MaloneCricPicks

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Weekend Racing Reviews – March 21st

by darryn on March 23, 2015

Bendigo review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: 3BO Trophy (1300m)

1st Oltre Finito – Patrick Moloney
2nd Live For Today – Brad Rawiller
3rd Bel Rhythm – Jye McNeil

Tips And Beers and Trevinder were best out and Trevinder eventually crossed to lead. Oltre Finito and Habitual Offender were handy with First Print trapped wide. Baron Archer got onto heels and dropped back a bit and wide with Bel Rhythm inside and Such Hope going around him. First Print put some pressure on three deep coming to the turn and as they swung Oltre Finito got off the fence and set out after Trevinder and took over 100m out, kicking clear to score. A wall of them closed in behind and the big grey Live For Today stormed home to grab second while Bel Rhythm got through into a place. Baron Archer kept coming to be close up and the likes of The Conquerer, Black Revolver, Spencer Street and Sir Berus were all just behind the placings. First Print was among them too in a good effort after a tough run. The winner had the run of the race and was entitled to perform.

Follow: none in particular.

Race 2: TROA Handicap (1100m)

1st Agent – Dylan Dunn
2nd Zedi Knight – Jamie Mott
3rd Lord Da Vinci – Damian Lane

Pretty Possum had superior speed and led clearly over Canali, Stratumsphere and Zedi Knight in a line. Al Aneed was further out. Behind the speed Agent ran into a good spot inside Belesron and Bel Seal wider with some cover. Lord Da Vinci found himself four back on the fence in a bunched field. Pretty Possum led to the 200m but was swamped as Stratumsphere challenged and Canali and Grane pushed up on the fence. Agent went looking for a run through and Zedi Knight boxed on out deeper. Belesron became strung up as was Lord Da Vinci climbing all over their backs to get out. Agent sprinted through and grabbed Grane 100m out, Zedi Knight kept coming as Lord Da Vinci finally got clear and sprouted wings late. Belesron also had a checkered run through. Agent held off a game Zedi Knight, Lord Da Vinci should have won easily but had to settle for third and Belesron should have been close to him. King Of Manners rocketed home out wide to be behind the placegetters.

Follow: Lord Da Vinci is ready to win now.

Race 3: Sutherland Property (1000m)

1st Snappy Esprit – Patrick Moloney
2nd Bella Capri – Mark Zahra
3rd Squeaky Squirrel – Jason Collins

Snappy Esprit flew out of a wide gate and crossed to the fence to lead. Gloop moved into second with Harlem Star three deep. Delfina and Mihany were next and Bel Show was right off the track with Symphonix. Snappy Esprit was still doing it well into the straight and moved a length or so clear. Squeaky Squirrel was following and Harlem Star made a short dash. Bella Capri was running on well further out and Bel Show battled. Snappy Esprit had enough in hand to hold Bella Capri and Squeaky Squirrel for a solid win. From the back Lazyaxl worked home nicely and Mihany made ground while Good Offa and Rose Dancer ran on without threatening. Winner was too quick for them but a few nice first-up runs from the back of the field.

Follow: Lazyaxl, Mihany.

Race 4: Gold Rush (1000m)

1st The Big Dance – Dean Yendall
2nd Bundy Red – Dean Holland
3rd Miss Gidget – Ben Melham

The Big Dance and Belhamage were best away and Miss Gidget was with them early before easing back a length or so. Tiz My View kicked up along the fence and Bundy Red followed with Keen Array outside. Belhamage wobbled on the bend and The Big Dance sprinted clear at the top of the straight. Tiz My View came off her back but couldn’t get near her, Keen Array just battled and out wide Miss Gidget was a bit green but kept coming. Bundy Red checked of Tiz My View’s heels to run on but by the 200m The Big Dance was a mile in front and she had about three lengths to spare over Bundy Red who tried hard and Miss Gidget a game third. Eye-catching run behind them from Primo Pintxo who was strung up in the second half early on but finished well. Destiny’s Reward ran fifth in a handy effort as well. The likes of Belhamage and Tiz My View dropped out and can be rated disappointing.

Follow: Primo Pintxo looks an improver out of this one.

Race 5: Jayco Stayers Challenge (2400m)

1st Stellarized – Linda Meech
2nd Four Carat – Damian Lane
3rd Aggregator – Jake Bayliss

Took a little while to sort themselves out and Stellarized led early before handing up to Sammy The Snake. A Little Edgy improved up to second with Aggregator handy. The Ruffian was three back on the fence inside the jumper Beer Garden as they ran along in front. Four Carat was back last and some 15 lengths off the leader a mile to run. Not much change to the 600m mark where Aggregator dropped off. Sammy The Snake had A Little Edgy under some pressure while Stellarized eased off the inside and slid up three deep. Cynical got up on the fence and The Ruffian was struggling to go with them. Four Carat was still last and behind a wall of horses. Sammy The Snake gave a big sight but Stellarized got to him at the 100m. Aggregator had found a second wind and was sticking on as Tampere loomed up and Four Carat was steaming home when the race was all over. Stellarized held on for a narrow win over Four Carat, who probably should have won, and Aggregator boxed on well for third. Sammy The Snake was gallant and Tampere close up. They beat the rest clearly.

Follow: Four Carat can atone and looks as though he’ll handle a bit longer too.

Race 6: Gold Bracelet (1400m)

1st Nadeem Lass – Matthew Allen
2nd Bippo No Bungus – Chris Parnham
3rd Written – Jackie Beriman

Winta Chiller was slow out and Ava’s Delight didn’t miss it as badly as she can. Bippo No Bungus and Written began well and went forward with Chiquada kicking up on the fence and Nadeem Lass nearby. SoosaRama landed in a good trail around Ava’s Delight. Held Hostage was in the clear next. Written had them strung out in the middle stages as she ran to the lead with Bippo No Bungus staying close by. Chiquada had a nice run but was being niggled at before the turn. Nadeem Lass came out to challenge but was also under riding and nothing was making any impact from further back. Written was still in front 100m out, Chiquada couldn’t get to her on the inside and Bippo No Bungus was trying. Just as Bippo No Bungus looked to be getting the upper hand over Written, Nadeem Lass made a dive and got up to post a rare win. Written held third clearly over Chiquada and Soosa Rama, every chance. Atlantis Dream got way too far back but she closed her race off nicely in the last furlong.

Follow: Atlantis Dream is the way to go from this race.

Race 7: Golden Mile (1600m)

1st Observational – Anthony Darmanin
2nd Evangelist – Dean Yendall
3rd Dylanson – Clare Lindop

Guest Of Honour made his way across to the fence to lead over Akavoroun early before Marksmanship whipped up to take over. Priority Road was trapped deep on the speed and just behind them Chile Expressfound good cover. Dylanson also landed in a nice spot ahead of Stipulate inside Evangelist and Gris Caro three wide and midfield. Marksmanship wasn’t waiting for anyone and led by a couple on the turn, Guest Of Honour pushed off the fence as Priority Road gave in and Dylanson eased three and four wide with Akavoroun to run on. Chile Express stayed behind the leader. Stipulate got into the clear but couldn’t sprint. At the 200m Dylanson ran to the lead and fleetingly looked the winner. Evangelist was starting to hit the line hard and out wider Observational unwound with a huge run from last on the turn. Puccini got a gap through inside Evangelist to put himself in the picture as Akavoroun laboured. Evangelist and Observational got to Dylanson about 20m out and Observational just got the head down on the line to win. It was some performance too considering the start he conceded. Nice run Evangelist and Dylanson ran his usual honest race. Puccini was close up and they best the rest four lengths.

Follow: like to see Observational again but he might be above average.

Race 8: Bendigo Guineas (1400m)

1st Setinum – Jake Noonan
2nd Eclair Choice – Dominic Tourneur
3rd Java – Ben Melham

Liberation wasted no time in getting to the front and Java took a cart across to sit outside. Better Land settled in the box seat, much closer than he has lately, and Eclair Choice eased into fourth after being wide early.Setinum was a length or so back three wide around Pepper The Pin and Lotion. Liberation and Java snuck away coming to the turn and Liberation went for home, though Java hadn’t been called upon at the top of the straight. Better Land was in the clear in plenty of time and struggled while Eclair Choice was under pressure but responding. Setinum kept coming out wider, Pepper The Pin battled on and Profit Share tried to get up along the fence. Just as Java got the better of Liberation, Eclair Choice grabbed him and Setinum swamped the pair to get up for a tough win. Orient Line charged home late to be close up with Profit Share and Fast Cash made some ground out wide but was never in it. Hard to make an excuse for anything given the winner sat deep and was too good.

Follow: none.

Race 9: #hashtag Handicap (1400m)

1st The Bowler – Mark Zahra
2nd Longeron – James Winks
3rd Kenjorwood – Regan Bayliss

Free Of Doubt clearly won the start and was the early leader but had company so handed up to Refulgent with Swift Shadow coming across from the deep. Bringenbrong was stranded without cover and Written Uplanded fifth. Red Corner was getting onto heels three back on the fence, The Bowler moved into the three wide line tracked by Infinite Energy and Longeron in that bunch. Refulgent led by more a length on the turn as they fanned a bit. The Bowler dashed quickly with Written Up to grab Refulgent at the 200m. Longeron was trying to get around their heels and wider out Kenjorwood was winding up. The Bowler just had enough in hand to beat Longeron while Kenjorwood produced a nice first-up effort to snatch third from Written Up who had every chance. Campanology finished his race off well fresh as Refulgent weakened late.

Follow: Longeron and Kenjorwood both ran very well first-up.

Specials from the meeting: Lord Da Vinci, Primo Pintxo, Atlantis Dream, Four Carat.

============================================

Rosehill review by Todd Burmester

Race 1

1st Shamalia – Hugh Bowman
2nd Mossfun – Tommy Berry
3rd Ygritte – Brenton Avdulla

Last year’s Golden Slipper winner Mossfun got them under way for this years Golden Slipper card by leading the first as it liked. Ygritte settled second, Tahni Dancer was back on the fence in third, with Bound For Earth outside of it. Brook Road was out three wide, and Shamalia was deliberately ridden towards the rear. Mossfun looked to have a picnic in front, and well into the straight was still traveling well. Realisticaly nothing was coming after him, until the furlong pole when Bowman let rip on Shamalia up the middle of the track. She sprinted very nicely indeed and put the race away in the next 100m in what was a pretty impressive win. Mossfun made use of a good ride in front by Berry to hold onto second and Ygritte held third. All honours to the winner to give them a start and a beating here.

Follow: Shamalia

Race 2

1st Scratchy Bottom – Craig Williams
2nd Rising Romance – James McDonald
3rd Telepathic – Glen Boss

When they settled in the second, Role Model had gone to a clear lead, and was in front from Inoshowen. Sabor A Triunfo was back in third spot, with Adorabeel back fourth on the fence, with the favourite, Rising Romance on its outside. Telepathic was outside of those and three wide for a good part of the trip. Inside the 600m mark the pace started to quicken, and Rising Romance was off with its run three wide, and Telepathic was out even wider working into it. At the 250m mark, Rising Romance and Telepathic looked to be the two to fight it out as they swept towards the lead. Rising Romance seemed to be getting the better of Telepathic, butScratchy Bottom had come through one off the fence and sprinted best in the run to the line to get the victory. It was a blanket finish, and I thought the run of Telepathic was one of the best of the race.

Follow: Telepathic

Race 3

1st Peeping – Sam Clipperton
2nd Music Magnate – Opie Bosson
3rd Mr Bogart – Hugh Bowman

Princefamous led on its ear in race three. Mr Bogart went up at sat outside of it, which gave Tawteen and Peeping the nice runs behind the speed. Not long after the start Kumaon was lucky to stay on its feet after running up and getting on heels of the runner in front of it, which basically put it out of the race. Throughout the race, Music Magnate wouldn’t settle. Around the turn, Princefamous still had it over Mr Bogart, with Peeping coming three wide, Music Magnate putting in a run four wide, and Washington Heights looking to sweep right down the outside. They were across the track with 150m to run, and it looked like Music Magnate was coming home best for a few strides, but the effort of fighting the rider told in the final stages, and Peeping ground it out very well to hold him off. Mr Bogart had got the better of Princefamous and claimed third spot.Washington Heights was poor in the run to the line and goes into the sack book off the back of that effort.

Follow: Music Magnate

Race 4

1st Contributor – James McDonald
2nd Tosen Stardom – Tommy Berry
3rd Lucia Valentina – Hugh Bowman

Race four brought on the first of the big ones to the day, The Ranvett Stakes and it certainly didn’t let us down. When they settled, Fast Dragon led them up from Silent Achiever. Tosen Stardom and Dominant settled just behind the speed, and Contributor was idling along about four lengths off the lead initially. Up inside the 1000m mark, the outsider and leader, Fast Dragon decided he was off for home and put up about three or four lengths on them very quickly. By the time they reached the 600m mark and then the home turn, that lead was about six lengths, and the cavalry behind him was getting going to chase him down. Lucia Valentina initially went into second, but at the 300m mark, Contributor had taken inside runs and sprinted brilliantly to put the race beyond doubt by the furlong pole. It was great to watch him stretch out in the final part of the race, and there is no doubt he is the superior Weight For Age horse in the country over this distance at the moment. Tosen Stardom went very nicely in second after looking in some bother before the turn, and Lucia Valentina was also good, after copping a bit of a short back and sides as the winner moved into the clear and went past her. He’s Your Man was the major flop in this race, he just isn’t racing at his best this campaign.

Follow: Tosen Stardom

Race 5

1st Volkstok’n’barrell – Craig Williams
2nd Preferment – Damien Oliver
3rd Hallowed Crown – Hugh Bowman

The great racing just kept coming, and this time it was The Rosehill Guineas, which was a battle of Australia and New Zealand. Like in the previous, it was the roughie that took it up, this time in the shape of Pounamu. The Kiwis settled second and third, in the order of Mongolian Khan ahead of Volkstok’n’barrell. Preferment and Sweynesse were next. Hallowed Crown had settled well back, in what was obviously a tactic to get him to run out the 2000m strongly. Like the previous leader, Pounamu had a four length lead up to the 600m mark. Around the turn and up to the 300m mark they were all over the shop and there looked to be three or four winning chances. Preferment, Volkstok’n’barrell and Hallowed Crown then dropped off Sweynesse whose run was short lived. Soon after. In the run to the line it was the kiwi Volkstok’n’barrell who proved strongest to just edge out Preferment who was an improved run today, with Hallowed Crown just failing to run the trip out in the last 50m or so. Sweynesse has to be listed as disappointing, whilst Mongolian Khan may still improve over the mile and a half, but he was beaten a fair way today.

Follow: Preferment

Race 6

1st Sweet Idea – Blake Shinn
2nd Kuro – Chad Schofield
3rd Miracles Of Life – Hugh Bowman

Onto the next Group 1 of the day which was The Galaxy. Deep Field was an easing favourite from earlier in the week, and had an outside gate to contend with. The outside gate proved no worry at all as he clapped on the pace and led easily. You could say he was ‘going like an Oakleigh Plater’, but given it was basically the equivalent race, that’s no surprise. Chloe In Paris settled second with Kuro on its outside. Back about midfield,Flamberge was caught out wide. Before you knew it they were up towards the home turn, it it was evident that Deep Field was going to have trouble maintaining the flying pace it had put on in front. He maintained the lead to the 300m mark, but then stopped like a pricked balloon and you were looking for the swoopers. Chloe In Paris had the front from Kuro and was doing a good job in holding him off, but out wide on the track the Brown and White colours of Sweet Idea had emerged and she went back to come away and win it easily. Kuro did a good job to eventually get past Chloe In Paris and hold onto second, whilst Miracles Of Life was great again today running home hard into third spot. Fast ‘n’ Rocking finished its race off well for fourth as it often does. This is one of those races again where a look at the replay would be doing yourself a favour. Rubick didn’t appear to have any excuses for its average effort.

Follow: Kuro, Miracles Of Life

Race 7

1st Vancouver – Tommy Berry
2nd English – Blake Shinn
3rd Lake Geneva – Dwayne Dunn

So to the big one of the day, on a day when there were so many highlights. Haybah led them out from Haptic and Furances with Speak Fondly out three wide on the speed. From the bad barrier draw Tommy Berry onVancouver had executed things nicely to finish three wide with cover, which is about the best that could probably have been expected. Around the turn, Haybah still had it, with Haptic, Headwater, Speak Fondly and Furnaces all doing the chasing. Out wide on the track however you could see Berry winding up the big colt Vancouver, and the stablemate English was doing her best to come with him as was the Victorian visitor Ready For Victory. In the run to the line, Vancouver proved he is a top shelf two-year-old, and also proved the old saying correct that a good colt beats a good filly. English tried hard but she was losing ground on the winner in the run to the line. Lake Geneva was a nice run in third, and Ready For Victory was green as grass heading for the outside fence but still running on into fourth. Can the winner take the triple crown is now what creates most intrigue? I would have to say yes.

Follow: Vancouver

Race 8

1st Real Impact – James McDonald
2nd Criterion – Craig Williams
3rd Kermadec – Ryan Moore

So, to the final Group 1 of the day and Kermadec was slow to go. When they settled it was the Japanese horse Real Impact in front from Cosmic Endeavour and It’s Somewhat out three wide. Hooked got a nice run behind the speed in fourth. There really was no change in the order up to and around the home turn, and at that point the leader was being wound up for the run home. Up to the 300m mark he was in full flight with Hooked trying to chase down the outside and Criterion making good ground along the inside. Shooing To Win put in a couple of closing strides at about the 200m mark but quickly peaked on that run and it was Real Impact and Criterion who settled down to fight it out. To my eye it appeared Criterion was coming home the better and he may have briefly hit the front but the Japanese horse was just too gutsy for him in the end and got the judges nod in a very close photo. Kermadec flashed at the line in what was another encouraging run, but I hope he is not going to become a horse that always says “back me next time” but never delivers. Royal Descent ran her usual honest race. Burbero would have to go down as the most improved horse going around, having been beaten less than three lengths here without a great deal of racing room. Shooting To Win was entitled to do more, and the jury is now out with him. Hooked was honest. There was nothing from Sacred Falls today, and World Ace was also a flop.

Follow: Criterion

Race 9

1st Permit – Tommy Berry
2nd Phrases – Tye Angland
3rd Bagman – James McDonald

The Manyon Cup seemed somewhat of an anti-climax to finish off a great day of racing, but none the less, they went around over the mild and a half with Tremec missing the kick. Phrases had the front early from Permit, but out of the straight Diametric went around them and took it up. Permit was second on the outside of Phrases back on the fence in third as those three got a good break on the rest of the field. They packed back up in the middle stages as Permit went up outside of Diametric. Before the turn, the favourite Maygrove started sweeping around them, with Grand Marshall coming on even wider. Diametric was a beaten horse around the turn, with Permit assuming control. You would have thought there were three or four runners going to go past him soon after, including Bagman, Phrases and Maygrove, but somehow the old fellow Permit just kept batting away and came away to win it by close to a length on the line. Phrases continues its good form and ran second from Bagman who didn’t quite run the trip out. Maygrove was pretty disappointing, but may have just needed this one more run in order to be at peek fitness so don’t give up just yet. Grand Mashall did pretty well here after making its run before the turn and out very wide.

Follow: Grand Marshall

Specials from the meeting: Shamalia, Kuro, Miracles Of Life

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2015 Alistair Clark Stakes

by Admin on March 20, 2015

Race 6 – 9:15PM G2 3YO Alister Clark Stakes (2040 METRES)

Speed Map

aclarckstakes01

Expecting that, having drawn the closest barrier to the rail that No.5 MASTER RESET crosses and leads the field with No.13 MAASTRICHT and No.10 GENERAL JAMES coming across and sitting behind him. The speed outside that trio is reduced, likely enabling this trio to slow the tempo down mid race.

By this time of the night, it will be established whether or not there is a noticeable bias, so play close attention to that as it is a challenge to predict what (if any) bias will occur prior to the meeting starting.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. Champion Picks clients get a market < 100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.

aclarckstakes02

Stratum Star is brilliantly weighted in this event, given the Set Weight conditions of the contest. He has a 16 point Official Handicapper Rating advantage on the second highest rated horse, Magicool. This places him with an immediate head start, all else being equal.

He has been excellent this campaign, rising gradually in distance and grade – 1st up 1300m Open Grade, 2nd up 1400m G3 then last start in the G1 Australian Guineas over 1600m. 4th up this distance is a smart decision by trainer D.K.Weir, one that should ensure the horse peaks. He has, vitally, improved his performance rating at each of these starts, with a PB last start finishing within 0.6L of Wandjina (arguably the best 3YO miler in the country). His rider, Brad Rawiller should have an easy time parking the horse on the back of the speed, ready to join in at the turn to put pay to them.

Presumably, the market has decided to partially risk his chances with the rise to 2040m, yet he has given no indication that it is beyond his reach as the longer the distance he competes in, the higher his performance rating has proven to be.

The current public offering of > $2.00 is good value.

Recommended Bets:
Back Stratum Star to win.

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Betting 360 Ep 076: Golden Slipper preview

by David on March 19, 2015

Two Sydney based pro punters join us on the podcast this week to preview this year’s Golden Slipper.

Nathan Snow and Dean the Trial Spy run through their speed maps, early form analysis and recommended betting strategy for the big race.

Punting Insights:

  • The profile of recent Golden Slipper winners
  • Does Vancouver deserve to be the warm favourite?
  • What needs to go right for Exosphere to win?
  • Who are the best roughies in the race?

Today’s Guest:
Dean the Trial Spy and Nathan Snow

Get the Transcript:

>> Click Here to Read the Transcript

David: Hi everyone I’ve got Dean on the line as I wanted to run through a bit about the history of the Slipper, this year’s speed map and also some value bets, potentially. Firstly, the barrier draw as you’ve done some analysis on that?

Dean: Yeah. There’s been 58 of the Slipper and the most prolific winning barrier is Barrier 1 with 9 wins. If you put them into groups of four, Barriers 1 to 4 have won 22, 5 to 8 have won 16, 9 to 12 have won 14 and 13 to 16 have won ix. Obviously, the key point there, I guess, is Vancouver who looks like he’s going to come into the 15 after scratching. You know, only two horses had won from Barrier 15 or 16 in fifty-eight runnings. So, you know, he’s got history against him there.

David: And what about in recent times, not just the barrier draw, but you’ve done some work on where the winners have come from in the run?

Dean: In ’04, Dance Hero from gate two led all the way on the rail. In ’05 Stratum from gate six led all the way on the rail. In ’06, Miss Finland from gate seven was at the back, well back and hugged the rail. In ’07, Forensics went from gate one, won that course on the rail. In ’08, Sebring from gate five settled well back and hugged the rail. In ’09, Phelan Ready from gate fifteen, uh dropped right back to last but hugged the rail. In 2010, Crystal Lily from gate one was good on the rail. In ’11, Sepoy from gate eight was 3rd on the rail. In 2012, Pierro from gate one hugged the rail. In 2013, Overreach from gate eleven was third on the rail, and in 2014, Mossfun missed the start and hugged the rail the whole way to win.
So you can see a pattern there of recent Slipper winners over the last ten or eleven years, that you want to be on the fence.

David: All right. So how do you think it’ll pan out this year? What does the speed map look like so far?

Dean: Well, I think Haptic leads from barrier three. It looks like Furnaces sort of tucks in and gets a lovely trail directly behind from gate one. Haybah has gate two, so that’ll probably get a nice run, but take a sit. You know, I think it comes down to the tactics with riders out wide, you know, there are three sort of key pace horses going out wide, from a speed perspective. Headwater, from gate eleven, Speak Fondly from gate twelve, and Vancouver from gate eighteen. It’s really going to have to come down to how they jump.
Headwater led in the Sliver Slipper, but then couldn’t cross him in the five-course race in the Todman and got caught pretty wide outside Furnaces and Vancouver, so whether he is going to be able to get across in the race, will be interesting. Speak Fondly led last start but can take a sit, so a lot of them might try and get across and see if he can slot in, and Vancouver can jump well but it’s also shown a propensity to miss the kick, so where he – and obviously from barrier eighteen, he’s going to go a long way to determine his fate.
But, you know, you’ve got the speed of Haptic and Furnaces, they’re still the ones guaranteed to get lovely ones, and then the question is would that speed come from out wide in there, and what pace.

David: So you talked about Vancouver there, and obviously he’s been a spruik horse for quite a while now, with the form that it’s in and the map that you’ve just spoken about there, would you want to be backing or laying it around the $3?

Dean: Vancouver was the best trialler out of the first set of two run trials on September 22. He won over 840m at Kensington and 49.12, which was the quickest of the ten trials of the day, and about four lengths above the average. Which is why we backed him to win the Breeders Plate and now he’s continued to develop winning at Canterbury and then the Todman but they’ve cottoned on to him in super quick time. But, at $3 at the moment that’s not really an appealing price, despite being the best horse in the race, just with where he’s going to go, and you know, there’s a lot that depends on whether he can jump as well as he can. If he can, he may could potentially get across outside the leader, and get a really nice run. If he misses the kick, then certainly when you look at the past history of Slipper winners he’s going to have do a good job from there.

David: And what about Exosphere? The price gap between those two is narrowed a bit after the barrier draw. At the current price, $4 or so, would you want to be on him or against him?

Dean: Exosphere hadn’t run time in the trials, but had trialled easily sort of under no pressure, so it looked good. But you know he’s proven he can run good times in his two wins. He walloped a horse called Mogador twice, so I believe that he’s actually developing into a very nice three-year-old, and Mogador ran second in Kembla to Exosphere and Takedown ran 3rd then won the Black Opal, so, obviously strong form there. And then he went on and repeated it with a very strong win in the Skyline, so … Both Vancouver and Exosphere are outstanding two-year-olds, but the query with those two horses is the map.
When you look at those last 11 runnings of the Slipper and the fact that every horse found the fence during the race, it’s either going to take an outstanding ride, or an incredible run to win. Both of which are absolutely possible because the horses and the jockeys have the ability, but I don’t think they’re going to get it easy, and you know, I’m looking for a strategy in the race. I think it might be a case of potentially backing some at value and maybe saving on those two favourites.

David: So you mentioned there might be some value outside of those two, you’ve got a couple of runners in mind?

Dean: Yeah, I was thinking in terms of value, the three runners I like it considering the odds are: Haptic at $17. He hasn’t been defeated in two trials and two races. He’s done nothing wrong to date, and should lead here. Won a Jan. 6th 900m trial in 53.2, which was the clear best of the day, and around 4.5l above the average, and you know, his two wins, he’s just really done nothing wrong in winning, especially last start which did look a strong form race beating Furnaces. Tto be honest, I think it’s very difficult to lead and win the Slipper, particularly with 35 days off. But that’s the query, I think that he’s a very talented and underrated horse.
English, at $17 is another who is undefeated in two trials and two races. She won at Randwick Jan. 15th, 740m in 43.72, which was the quickest of nine trials on the day, three lengths above the average, and then won Randwick Feb 23rd 734m meter trial in 43.32 too, which was the quickest of seven trials, and four lengths quicker than Vancouver. She won at Kembla, she won the Riesling impressively. She fits the profile of a horse that could be slow away, as she has been in her two races, could be slow away, find the rail and charge home off a hot pace like Miss Finland, Sebring, Phelan Ready and Mossfun.
And the last one was Lake Geneva, who is also $17 and it was the other standout at the first two-year-old trials of the season on September 22 alongside Vancouver. She ran 49.56 which was the third quickest of the ten trials, but was out very wide throughout the trial. Had no luck on debut when she was caught wide and just beaten, then ran an excellent third in the Blue Diamond at her second start. And the Hawkes team won the Slipper last year for us with Mossfun, and again Lake Geneva profiles like English, as a horse who would settle off the pace on the rail and just charge right along, even inside the school.

David: So just overall as a betting race, obviously, it’s a high profile race, and there’s a long lead up to it and plenty of publicity, but as an actual betting race is it one that really excites you this year?

Dean: It’s a tricky one, because the two obvious horses have the draws and questionable maps. But then you’ve got some talented horses there that are really good value and I think that Haptic, English and Lake Geneva, so I do think it’s a race we’ll be playing in with the value and then possibly throwing in some exotics, because you’ve got the likes of Vancouver and Exosphere who on ability are clearly going to be there. But I do think that there is definitely scope for it to be a good betting race, because the favourites are going to have to put in really substantial, superstar runs to win, in my opinion. And these horses do have the ability to beat them on the day.

David: Excellent Dean, I look forward to the big race and thanks for joining us today.

—————————————-

David: Hi Nathan I just wanted to chat to you about the Golden Slipper, the race everyone’s talking about right now. I know it’s still relatively early in the week, so you haven’t done all the work that you will do on the race, but at this stage, how do you see the race panning out in terms of the speed map?

Nathan Snow: In terms of the speed, it’s quite interesting because there’s, you know both stables have a number of runners and they’ve already forecast that Haptic is going to want to lead. That to me indicates they’re going to want to a solidly run race to suit their top pick Exosphere. Vancouver’s the big query from gate 18. He’s got a decision to make and there’s three options there. He can jag straight back and ride for luck. He can try and slot in midfield in a spot three-wide with cover and hope there’s a three-wide line in front of you or you push the button and go and try and sit outside the league and if you’ve got to do a bit of work earl then so be it.
My gut says that they’ll go with option 3 there just because everything the stable says about the horse and those connected seems to be they just think it’s a superior animal and if they think that that’s the case then they’ll ride it like the good thing they think it is and just push a button and go. I see good pace here no matter what happens.

David: Yeah at times you’ve advised certain jockeys and help them with their race plans. Is that the way you’d go if you had the authority here, what would you actually recommend?

Nathan Snow: For them I’d say push the button and go yeah. I think riding for luck from there is dangerous. I think the 2 favourites, Vancouver and Exosphere, they look to have the class edge on the others. There does look to be a bit of dead wood in the race and so it’s probably not an ideal call to go back and ride for luck. I’d be pushing a button and going. Unfortunately they’ve been dealt the poor draw and they’ve just got to deal with it.

David: And what about Exosphere? You’ve been pretty keen on this one for a little while now.

Nathan Snow: Well it’s going to get things to suit now. It’s going to get a perfect trail, it’s going to have a genuinely run race. It just looks like it’s still got gears we haven’t seen yet. We’ve seen the best of Vancouver. Its figures are very good and it goes good, but it just seems there’s a bit of scope for Exosphere this year and its still got more to give. I do think they’re 2 very good 2 year-olds.

David: You’ve got the bookmaking background and then the punting experience for the last 5 years, what do you think of the prices available right now. Just in broad terms, if Vancouver’s around $3, and Exosphere’s not much better than $4 do you think that’s about right or do you think they should be even closer together?

Nathan Snow: I think they should be slightly closer together but I still think Vancouver, I haven’t priced the race up yet, but I couldn’t imagine I’d have Vancouver too much longer than $3. It just seems there’s a big gap to the rest of them.

David: So that gap to the rest of them…outside of those 2, are there any that you are keen on?

Nathan Snow: Look given the pace scenario there were 2 runners that sort of come from the same formline and they are Fireworks and Lake Geneva. But I do think they are a rung below the others. I do think that something has to happen to the other 2, for one of them not to win the race.
The horse that can improve provided they don’t use it as a pure bunny is Haptic. It seems like its got more to give in its races. I think it’s a horse with a bit talent, but the forecast saying they want to lead on that does raise a few eyebrows for me.

David: Okay this is a question I asked of Dean as well, it’s such a high profile race and everyone gets excited which is fair enough. From a betting perspective though, how enticing does this race look to you?

Nathan Snow: It doesn’t look a great betting race at this stage. Hopefully a few people are on Exosphere at bigger odds. Yeah it doesn’t look great at this stage. Like I said I haven’t done the race properly.

David: You gave us a good overview though, so thanks for joining us today, and all the best for Saturday.

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Special offer (this week only)

by David on March 18, 2015

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If you are looking for the very best betting advice available then join us today for instant access. Each of the Melbourne and Sydney ratings and our horse racing tips package had very big results last weekend and we’ll be looking to keep that going this coming Saturday.

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Weekend Racing Reviews – March 14th

by darryn on March 16, 2015

Flemington review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (1200m)

1st Pasadena Girl – Vlad Duric
2nd Air Apparent – Michael Walker
3rd Pursuits – James Doyle

Results led a fairly bunched field with Pursuits underneath. Pasadena Girl was buried behind the leaders inside Eclat and Andrioli. Air Apparent was further out without cover. Andrioli was the first to tackle Results about 400m out with Air Apparent moving closer. Pursuits wound up behind the tiring leader and Eclat was held up for a run. Pasadena Girl lost some ground to get into the clear and she started to hit the line hard late. Air Apparent took over with a furlong to go and momentarily looked to be holding them. Pursuits picked up on her inside but the big threat was outside as Pasadena Girl chimed in and finished the race off a little better than Air Apparent and they got away from Pursuits. Andrioli stayed ok okay while Magnette made a bit of late ground. Winner proved too good after conceding a couple of lengths, while Air Apparent had every chance.
Follow: Pasadena Girl might be well above average, remember her later in the year.

Race 2: MSS Security Stakes (1100m)

1st Pittsburgh Flyer – Joao Moriera
2nd Earthquake – James Doyle
3rd Ready To Fight – Michael Dee

Zeletto showed speed to lead and was joined by Tudor in front. Earthquake parked behind them with Vain Kingdom for company as Pittsburgh Flyer eased to their inside. Royal Snitzel was wider out andNostradamus and Sistonic were among the widest. Zeletto and Tudor put the pressure on each other and they kicked a few lengths clear in the middle stages but Earthquake looked to have them covered quite easily. She took over at the 300m while behind her Pittsburgh Flyer eased into the clear to give some chase. Royal Snitzel and Nostradamus couldn’t go with them while Sistonic was struggling further back. Pittsburgh Flyer tackled Earthquake with about 100m to run and she just edged a neck or so clear and that was good enough to win. A couple of lengths back to Ready To Fight and Setinum who both hit the line very nicely from the second half, getting by Royal Snitzel and Nostradamus. Sistonic pulled up with an issue and her prep would be over you’d think. Earthquake ran a much improved race but she’s still a shadow of the filly of 12 months ago.
Follow: both Ready To Fight and Setinum if they come back in class.

Race 3: VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m)

1st Jameka – Nick Hall
2nd Lazumba – Steven King
3rd Sampeah – James Doyle

Sampeah was only fairly out but was dug up to get up near the speed. Jameka crossed from a wide gate and landed outside Well Sighted as Sampeah came back a bit to get cover. Band On The Run was on his outside while Iceflow held the box seat. Mr Optimistic found himself trapped four wide as they looked to pull up a bit in front. The field bunched and Band On The Run made a dash up to join Jameka and Well Sighted and Mr Optimistic who also moved forward. Sampeah was held up behind them on the turn and when a gap opened took a while to get going. Jameka kicked away by the 300m and the only one giving chase was Lazumbafrom the back as she stormed home late. Sampeah got through the gap but couldn’t sprint with them and Jameka wouldn’t let Lazumba get any closer than a length in the last bit as she scored a deserved win. Sampeah just held on for third ahead of Gredington and Queen Of Wands who worked home without threatening. Manhattan Blues was never a factor and finished next. The winner was too good and will be a better horse next preparation.
Follow: Lazumba did a good job at her second start.

Race 4: Blamey Stakes (1600m)

1st Suavito – Damien Oliver
2nd Sertorius – Ryan Maloney
3rd Kourkam – Nick Hall

Suavito and Shoreham were a bit slow out. Nobody seemed to want the front as Jacquinot Bay kicked forward to join Sertorius and Guest Of Honour up there. Suavito rushed around the field from the back and she ran to the lead about 1100m out. Jacquinot Bay sat up on her outside with Sertorius in the box seat. They still were still at snail’s pace and Smokin’ Joey pulled his way up three wide around Guest Of Honour well before the turn. Shoreham tried to get onto his back and bumped with Escado in the process. Kourkam found himself second last with all the shuffling. Suavito was let down at the 400m and looked a little vulnerable. Smokin’ Joey made a short dash and Kourkam got up on the inside as Jacquinot Bay started to battle. Sertorius was still there and started to make some late ground but Suavito kept going and had more than a length to spare over him. Kourkam did a good job for third. Smokin’ Joey didn’t have an easy run and boxed on and Escado ran home yet again. No excuses for anything behind the winner though Sertorius ran his usual honest race fresh.
Follow: he’s a tease but there’s a win in Escado somewhere this prep.

Race 5: Kewney Stakes (1400m)

1st Wawail – Michael Walker
2nd Sabatini – Nick Hall
3rd Vezalay – Damien Oliver

Clover Lane missed the start while Zambezi Diamond sprung out but handed up the lead to Vezalay and Bottle Of Smoke. London Lolly was behind them and Wawail found plenty of cover this time as CristalinaLago went around them and Exclusive Lass followed. Sabatini went right back to second last from her outside gate. Vezalay snuck away rounding the turn and Bottle Of Smoke was under pressure to go with her. Zambezi Diamond got the inside run and Wawail went looking between horses for a gap. Cristalina Lago and Exclusive Lass were battling on and caused problems for Peggy Jean who was trying to come between them. She was cut out near the 200m and lost any chance. Wawail got the gap about the same time and set after Vezalay, Exclusive Lass ran to third momentarily as Sabatini sailed down the extreme outside. Wawail forged clear of Vezalay from the 100m and had enough in hand to beat Sabatini. She was beaten by the barrier. Vezalay a nice third while Bayoonah stormed home late to grab fourth from a luckless Peggy Jean and Sea Spraywas close up but seemed to have her chance.
Follow: be forgiving with Peggy Jean and follow Bayoonah wherever she goes.

Race 6: Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m)

1st Brazen Beau – Joao Moriera
2nd Chautauqua – Dwayne Dunn
3rd Terravista – Hugh Bowman

Lord Of The Sky took up the running and Brazen Beau was right alongside him early on. Terravista was behind the leader as Driefontein slid forward with Lankan Rupee over racing on her outside. Chautauqua was right behind Brazen Beau but in an awkward spot. Lord Of The Sky got moving a bit in the mid stages and Brazen Beau dropped in behind him for the cart. Driefontein was being niggled at and Lankan Rupee was in trouble as he couldn’t get to her by the 400m. Terravista and Chautauqua were behind those looking for runs and while that was happening Brazen Beau darted underneath Lord Of The Sky and went for home. Lankan Rupee and Terravista had a bump about 300m out and that put paid to the defending champion. Chautauqua was still a length or so behind them and a minute off Brazen Beau who stole a march on them and romped in. Chautauqua got going to run second over Terravista who was just even. Lord Of The Sky held on for fourth while Aeronautical snatched fifth from Lankan Rupee. All honours with the winner, aided by a clever ride.
Follow: none, big question mark over this race. The runner-up missed the boat while Lankan Rupee wasn’t himself.

Race 7: Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m)

1st Spillway – Michael Walker
2nd Extra Zero – Damian Lane
3rd Happy Trails – Damien Oliver

Entirely Platinum was best to begin and held the lead for the first 400m from The Cleaner. Sonntag, Greatwood and Lidari were handy while Au Revoir, Foreteller and Mourinho were the next bunch. The Cleaner eventually took up the running and the field strung right out. Entirely Platinum stuck with him and Greatwood got in for a nice trail. Au Revoir fouind himself wide and was being followed by Red Cadeaux. The Cleaner went for home on the turn and while he was under the whip Entirely Platinum looked to be cruising but couldn’t shake him off. Spillway emerged from the second half of the field with a dazzling sprint to chase them 300m out. Foreteller worked clear but couldn’t run on while Red Cadeaux was staying on strongly. Extra Zero and Happy Trails made their runs together with Akzar a couple of lengths off them. Spillway hit the lead 100m out but was paddling and Extra Zero, who actually settled last, charged at him to miss by a narrow margin to cause a massive boilover. Happy Trails stuck on for third while The Cleaner fought back for fourth. Red Cadeaux’s run was enormous and he was still coming on the line as Entirely Platinum weakened. A couple of lengths behind that pack was Protectionist. He just didn’t have a turn of foot and only worked home evenly. Not all Melbourne Cup winners transition to WFA and he is finding these races too short.
Follow: Red Cadeaux has the Sydney Cup at his mercy on his performance.

Race 8: Schweppervecence Trophy (1600m)

1st Noble Protector – Craig Williams
2nd Marianne – Mark Zahra
3rd Set Square – Hugh Bowman

Choose took advantage of the inside gate to lead them early and Noble Protector landed on her outside. Street Allure rushed up deep around Refer. Bonaria settled behind them outside Bippo No Bungus as Street Allure pressed on to lead. Noble Protector moved alongside Street Allure on the turn, putting Choose in a pocket, while Refer and Precious Gem moved up wider out. Bonaria became held up but Noble Protector waved them goodbye inside the 400m and broke well clear. Precious Gem got to second but was battling, wider out Marianne and Set Square were running on but they were in a different race. Noble Protector didn’t look to be fully tested in winning by a big space. Marianne’s effort was an improved one and Set Square ran evenly second-up. Assess her on her next start. Behind them Fenway rocketed home to run fourth over Precious Gem. Bonaria was a bit plain this time.
Follow: Noble Protector was awesome first-up and all the form around Contributer is looking pretty strong.

Race 9: My Kitchen Rules Stakes (1400m)

1st Amorino – Craig Williams
2nd Saint Or Sinner – Damien Oliver
3rd Gracious Prospect – Michael Walker

Hosting blew the start and crossed them to last. Gracious Prospect jumped well and let Laohu and Sistine Demon battle it out for the lead. Saint Or Sinner found a good spot. Natuzzi was over-racing badly midfield inside Amorino. Laohu held out Sistine Demon but they put a few lengths on the rest well before the turn. Saint Or Sinner moved closer and pocketed Gracious Prospect. Amorino had his back going forward while Natuzzi looked to have run his race already. Sistine Demon hit the front fleetingly but Saint Or Sinner had him covered and behind them Gracious Prospect was still held up. Amorino eased to the outside and chimed in, hitting the lead 100m out and finishing the race off too well again. He’s well and truly back in form. Saint Or Sinner had every chance and held second from the luckless Gracious Prospect, who might have been a shade stiff, and Sistine Demon battled on fairly well after the early speed battle.
Follow: Natuzzi got going again late and he could be an improver.

Specials from the meeting: Noble Protector, Bayoonah, Red Cadeaux, Lazumba.

==============================

Rosehill review by Todd Burmester

Race 1
1st Himalaya Dream – Tommy Berry
2nd Silverball – Kerrin McEvoy
3rd Zin Zan Eddie – Koby Jennings
Singing Flame was slow out, but probably more concerning for a lot of punters was to see the favourite Silverball miss the kick clearly and settle last. Zin Zan Eddie initially had the lead before Himalaya Dream was let stride out wide and went to the front. These two settled ahead of Copy who was basically in the middle of a line of three that also contained Montero on the fence and Devonshire Duke out three wide. Himalaya Dream still had the front around the turn, with Zin Zan Eddie looking to challenge and Copy moving up three wide. Silverball was trying to track up behind them, and making some headway. At the furlong mark however, Himalaya Dream kicked and it was apparent it was set for victory. Silverball ran on well enough to suggest it can win races this campaign, and Zin Zan Eddie stuck on well enough in third. Copy was well in the market and was very disappointing here.
Follow: Silverball
Race 2
1st Target In Sight – James McDonald
2nd Deep Field – Tommy Berry
3rd Tahitian Black – Christian Reith
Kencella was one of the best to begin, but I’m All The Talk was drawn inside of it and kicked up to lead. When they settled down, Kencella pretty much declared was on I’m All The Talk and those two put up about three lengths on Deep Field who was sent out deep in the red. The race caller declared that Deep Field couldn’t have asked for a better run, but the way I saw it, he was doing the chasing work behind the leaders that had gone far too hard. Up to the 300m mark, Deep Field looked to be working into the race well within itself and had the leaders covered, but back to the inside, Target In Sight was also working home very strongly. With 200m to go, Deep Field may have briefly hit the front, but soon after it was apparent Target In Sight was going slightly better and he held a margin in the run to the line to cause the minor boil over. I think the run of the first two was pretty good here, and you would be foolish to write Deep Field off as a very good racehorse. Tahitian Black remains in good form, with a solid run for third.
Follow: The first three all went well and can win more races
Race 3
1st Tarquin – William Buick
2nd Rageese – Tommy Berry
3rd Odyssey Moon – Tye Angland
When they settled down in the third, Raphael’s Cat had the lead from Odyssey Moon who was well supported in betting. Inner Circle got a nice run third on the fence with Arsonist outside of it. Paceman had no luck, out three wide forever. Around the turn, Odyssey Moon was going after the leader and Inner Circle was coming out to chase the pair of them. The three in front didn’t really quicken as required at the furlong and that allowed Tarquin and Rageese to quickly make ground from the back. Those two swept to the front in the concluding stages and it was Tarquin who finished too well. I thought Rageese was the equal of the winner as he came from behind it, had to hook across heels and wasn’t in the clearest of running for a few strides.
Follow: Rageese
Race 4
1st Speak Fondly – Tommy Berry
2nd Perignon – Brenton Avdulla
3rd Italy – James McDonald
Italy again showed poor barrier manners to come out a clear last. Speak Fondly came out well and looked to lead but was initially held out by Thorsborne and Carriages. Eventually Carriages pulled out of that battle and the other two paired off in front. Around the turn, Speak Fondly and Thorsborne still had it, but it was apparent that Speak Fondly was traveling the better. At the 300m mark she was asked to extend and did so.Perignon and Igraine looked the apparent dangers on the outside and Italy and stolen runs along the fence throughout the race after its bad start to be a thread on the inside. In the run to the line, it was a pretty gutsy effort by Speak Fondly to hold them off. Perignon ran second with Italy winding up in third. Down the outside Serenade flashed home, and Look To The Stars also put in a nice finish after having to switch across heals.
Follow: Look To The Stars
Race 5
1st Mahican – Linda Meech
2nd Commission – Blake Shinn
3rd Any Day Will Do – Kathy O’Hara
Sniper Fire led initially, but by the time they settled down, Any Day Will Do had assumed control. Diamondrocker settled in third on the fence, with Mahican fourth, in the one out and one back trail. Youthful King was caught out three deep. Just before the turn, Mahican was produced three wide, which was an encouraging sign for his backers. Any Day Will do put up a pretty good fight, but up to the furlong pole Mahican looked to have it covered, and Commission appeared to be the biggest danger who was coming after it on the outside. In the run to the line however, Mahican held a pretty comfortable advantage from Commission who may have peaked on its run a bit in the very final stages. The winner had a good run in transit, and used that to its advantage here. Diamondrocker was pretty disappointing in this event.
Follow: Mahican
Race 6
1st Hartnell – James McDonald
2nd Opinion – Tye Angland
3rd Hawkspur – Jim Cassidy
After a very encouraging run last start, Hartnell was sent out a very short priced favourite in this event. When the settled down, Fiveandahalfstar had the front from Pajaro, which gave Hartnell a lovely run in third. Before the 600m mark, Phrases and Junoob were pulled wide from the back, probably knowing that if they were any chance of beating Hartnell they were going to need to get on their bikes. When they started to reach a challenging position, Hartnell came out three wide pushing Phrases four wide and any others coming wider didn’t appear much hope, including the second favourite Who Shot Thebarman. At the 250m mark, Hartnell had the front, and just kept stretching out in the run to the line, and as the race caller put it, it was men against boys. Realistically, he didn’t beat much, but you can only beat what is there, and he did it well. Not much can be said about the opposition, who would not turn the tables if the race was run another 10 times. Don’t give up if you are a Who Shot Thebarman fan, as he kept coming to the line after being pushed very wide.
Follow: Hartnell, Who Shot Thebarman
Race 7
1st Plucky Belle – Linda Meech
2nd First Seal – Blake Shinn
3rd Diamond Drille – James McDonald
Mahara and Abduction were slow to begin here. Tarloshan led them as they settled down with Thump on its outside. Amicus got the run behind them, but stayed away from the fence which kept Adrift three wide. Favourite punters would not have been all that happy as First Seal also found herself three wide, but did have some cover. Around the turn, First Seal was pushed even wider but did look to be winding up nicely with her run, and the jockey didn’t seem all that concerned. At the 300m mark, she was ranging up to them, and hit the front with 200m to go, and looked set for victory. Soon after, the tough run started to tell a bit, and her run looked to peak. As that was going on, Plucky Belle got through in the middle and hit the line very hard to nudge out First Seal in a close finish. Realistically, when they hit the line they were all over the place, and a look at the replay is one recommendation I can make, the other is that the run of Arabian Gold was pretty good from a future view point, as was Diamond Drille.
Follow: Arabian Gold, Diamond Drille
Race 8
1st Winx – Tommy Berry
2nd Hauraki – James McDonald
3rd Supara – Christian Reith
Diamond Valores was the one who missed the start in race 8. They took a little while to settled down, but when they did it was High Above that led from Hampton Court. After its slow beginning, Diamond Valores ended up finding a nice spot in third on the fence inside of Supara. Winx who was sent out favourite found its way to the back of the field mid race and was still there when they started to turn for home. High Above had a kick initially in the straight, but Diamond Valores had its measure. For a little while there were chances everywhere, but in the final 150m it was a case of dominance from Winx who went to them and then stretched out very nicely to come away and win by a couple of lengths. This was a case of the winner just having too much class for its opposition, so you couldn’t recommend anything to turn the tables, and realistically, Winx wouldn’t have been out of place running in the previous event.
Follow: Winx
Race 9
1st Burbero – Brodie Loy
2nd Ninth Legion – Tommy Berry
3rd San Diego – Tim Clark
So to the last on what was a top day of racing. Ninth Legion crossed and led them from Aomen and Red Excitement. San Diego found a nice spot on the fence, and Rudy was trapped out three wide. Inside the 600m mark, Rudy was pushed out four deep. Around the turn, Ninth Legion had a kick and put a couple of lengths on them, which meant that Burbero who had been pinching inside runs was able to rail right up behind him, and then look to come out and challenge. For a couple of strides, the jockey wasn’t sure whether to come inside or outside of the leader, but he settled on going back to the fence on Burbero. Ninth Legion and Burbero fought it out tooth and nail in the run to the line, and always looked the two most prominent despite the face that San Diego, Spy Decoder and to a lesser extent Pornichet were all there putting in their claims for victory. In what was a very close finish, Burbero got the bob right on the line. San Diego is a horse who takes a little while to wind up, and probably wasn’t as comfortable today as he was last start when he got right to the outside to chase, and I think another win is in store for him in the not too distant future. Pornichet looks an improver for next time.
Follow: San Diego, Pornichet
Specials from the meeting: Arabian Gold, Hartnell, San Diego

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Almost every week our podcast guest is an expert in their field, whether that’s punting, training or riding.

But in 2014 we started tracking the journey of someone who wanted to go from an enthusiastic punter to a full-time professional.

On the show we find out how that progress has been over the last 12 months.

Punting Insights:

  • His learning curve over the last year
  • How he’s learned to frame his own markets
  • The number of races he covers each week and his expected Profit on Turnover
  • Why being a full-time professional is no longer his goal

Today’s Guest:
Trent Orwin

Get the Transcript:

>> Click Here to Read the Transcript

David Duffield: Thanks for joining us again Trent as we follow your journey. For those that missed the chat almost a year ago now, just to give a brief rundown of your background, you were someone that was bored with your accounting job and decided you wanted to become a full-time, professional punter.
You also understood that it was going to take some time and that there was a learning curve involved. When we last spoke you were putting in pretty much the equivalent of a full-time effort of around 40 hours a week. To go from a keen punter to a semi-professional. Tell us what’s been happening over the last year or so.

Trent Orwin: The past year has been a fair learning curve. I think when I spoke to you last time I was looking at Gloucester Park which is my favorite track, my strongest point. I was also looking at Melton.
Since then I’ve scrapped Melton for a number of reasons. I’ve just found it tough trying to follow two different states. The racing is a completely different style. You’ve got to learn all the drivers, horses, trainers. It’s just too many horses to keep track of so I’ve just completely isolated it to WA now. I’m looking onl at Gloucester Park now.

David Duffield: I understand why you’d want to focus on one state. A lot of guys we speak to that are successful have done the same thing. Why Gloucester park? You’re a Victorian, why not Victoria or even New South Wales?

Trent Orwin: One of the reasons is with WA being such an isolated state you don’t get too many interstate raiders turning up to Gloucester Park to race except for some of the featured races.
A good starting point is they are the same horses that race against each other. I don’t have to look at the form for a New South Wales horse, trying to gauge how does that stack up against WA. Just with Victoria I’ve noticed a lot that there so many Victorian horses. You get your New South Wales horses coming down. You get Tasmanian horses coming up. It was just hard trying to look at their form lines through them whereas with Gloucester Park it’s the same sort of horses. You can go well horse A beat horse B. Now here’s horse C and it raced horse A.
You can put a line through the form. At times, when you are looking at one track there’s only a couple of distances you can actually try to match up the time. Also, one of the parts that I enjoy, which a lot of people don’t is the fact that there is bias at the track. I hear a lot of casual punters will complain that another leader won, another leader won. Well, why not use that to your advantage?

David Duffield: Does that track bias have anything to do with weather conditions?

Trent Orwin: It doesn’t really matter from what I’ve seen. There’s not too many meetings that I’ve covered where there has been a massive downpour of rain. Even when there was one that stands out was on the Mighty Quinn. He’s more known to come from behind. He led in the pouring rain and just won. It didn’t deter him. It’s more the track itself. How they made the track short and straight. You want to be on the peg line. It’s hard to make up ground from behind. The bias is there more times than not.

David Duffield: What about pricing your market? It’s part art and part science. I know you’ve contacted someone like Ben Krahe about how he goes about it. How’s that evolved over the last few months?

Trent Orwin: It’s still developing. I’ve certainly improved I’d say loads in the past year with that. Of course, a lot of the credit goes to Ben for that. He’s helped me understand the basics of it, having to refine it a little bit to suit me and WA and Gloucester Park. The one thing that where I’m still looking to improve on is I guess class. It’s well and good to look at the statistics of say the leaders winning 45% but when you get a more classy animal sitting outside … I’m not going to say a much more inferior horse, but slightly inferior.
It’s a maze trying to find the right balance of who should be the favorite in the market. The other one is tempo still which is processing. I’m looking still to improve on my ability to work out what sort of tempo will be in a race. Then you can price accordingly. If it’s going to be slow you really want to blow those back markers out because they’re just not going to get into it. If it’s going to be a hard speed then there might be a strong horse that can close and get over the top of them late. There’s sort of the main couple that I’m trying to work on with my pricing at the moment.

David Duffield: Once you’ve done your form, you’ve done your ratings and then you look at the market. Do you then go back and have another go-over of the form or are you locked into your original prices?

Trent Orwin: Pretty much locked in. I don’t tend to change them too much. If there’s a scratching, yes I’ll have to go back. Especially if it’s going to be a key runner. It might have the prize horse and now it’s gone. Will there be another horse to take up that spot? If it was an enforcing start will it also enforce or now that it’s gone it’ll be another horse that gets up there. It just gets up there. It won’t put the pressure on so then you might readjust to favor. If it’s a strong leader, you might give it just a bit more and just shorten it in your market. I look at that and change it tactics as well of course. Sometimes, if I think I horse is going forward, I’ll price it that way and surprisingly the stables come out and say it’s going back. Then I’ll more than likely blow it out a bit more for that reason. I’m not put off by the price. If I think it’s $3 and then they open up $10, I’m still going to back that I’m right and they’re wrong. Of course, it’s not always the case, but we assess races for a reason. You’ve got to back your own judgement so that’s one thing I’ve started doing more of.

David Duffield: You’re focusing on the one meeting per week at the moment. How many races of those do you not bet into at all?

Trent Orwin: If there is a trot race on the program, I don’t even follow the form of the trotters over there. There’s only maybe once per month. The trotters come to town on a Friday night, so I won’t bet into that. I don’t tend to price the 2 year old and the 3 year old races, especially early in the season. As they get closer to the feature races I’ll really start crunching the form for the better runners, but there are lot of country horses that come to town early on. They don’t measure up and you don’t see them again. I just don’t spend too much time on it at this stage. Quite often, there’s a dominant horse like right at the moment in the 3 year old range Boating Boas is a duel Group 1 winner. He just smashes everything that’s racing at the moment. For me, I just ignore the race.

David Duffield: The races you are betting into, do you have an overall profit on turnover goal in mind as a percentage?

Trent Orwin: That’d I’d like to make?

David Duffield: You know like say 6 cents on the dollar?

Trent Orwin: Not at this stage. Ideally, when I feel like I’ve got to a point where I feel I am on a semi-professional level, I’d like maybe 8%.

David Duffield: That’s pretty realistic. The last time we spoke you talked a lot about wanting to stay disciplined and not take any shortcuts. How have you gone with both of those?

Trent Orwin: Yeah. I’m still fairly disciplined. I price the meeting. I stake according to what the spreadsheet says. I don’t bet more or bet less just because I’m in front or I’m down for the night. In that regard, I’m sticking to the rules. Yeah. I’m not sure what else to say with that part.

David Duffield: That’s all right. In a typical race, what percentage of your bank would you outlay?

Trent Orwin: Same with Ben, and all the Champion Picks, I’m essentially the copycat. Ben knows that. It’s a strategy that works for him so it’s one that I’m applying to myself. Betting to collect say 5% of the bank. Two and a half percent might be the standard sort of outlay. 2 1/2 – 3%.

David Duffield: I’m not sure I mentioned before that you back multiple horses in a race.

Trent Orwin: Yes. Exactly like Ben. You know, price it, get it to 100% and back every single overlay that’s there.

David Duffield: All right, so longer term, is your goal still to be a full-time professional?

Trent Orwin: It has changed slightly. I would like to be, I’ll use the term semi professional. Ideally, long term I’d like to target probably 2 maybe 3 meetings per week. Just with the Gloucester Park it’s more likely be two. There’s the Midweek Program and the Metropolitan Friday night program. I’d like to transition to pricing a midweek program. At this stage, I don’t. There might one race that takes my fancy which will be the sort of Metropolitan performance that racing in the midweek company. Essentially it’s the Friday night feel on a Tuesday night. That’s sort of the path I’d like to take. I’ve revised it a little bit. At this stage now I don’t want to go down the path of solely relying on punting income. I’d like a mix of working income and punting income. Semi professional, part time whichever you call it.

David Duffield: I think I know the answer, but I don’t want to assume. What’s lead to that decision as far as wanting more stable income but also doing it quite seriously?

Trent Orwin: Well, I’m 26 at the moment and my next step in life is to save up for a house. The best way to do that is to at least have some guaranteed income coming in. A bit of stability to pay the bills and whatnot. That’s one factor and just stress. 12 months on or 10 months on since our last chat, I still feel that every week. It’s a bit stressful. At this point in time, I just wouldn’t want to be completely living off it day to day, paycheck to paycheck.

David Duffield: That makes sense. What about the liquidity? For our thoroughbred punters it can be a real issue getting a bet on. What’s it like for harness in particular in the west?

Trent Orwin: Oh, I couldn’t tell you. I’m not avid you know. At this point in time, I’m not exactly bidding to win a thousand dollars a race. It’s probably a question for someone like Trent Cooper whose a WA form analyst. He’s a very serious punter. I’d say it would be probably not just Western Australia, you know. Anyone with harness, the corporates aren’t too kind people that have an idea. Particularly people that take money from them. It’s certainly a problem.

David Duffield: All right, so if we have another chat later this year or early in 2016, where do you think you’ll be at, at that stage?

Trent Orwin: Well, I’d like to be covering the 2 meetings that I outlined. It’ll be 2015, 20 races a week that I’ll be looking at and betting into. I’d like to continue to improve upon my price assessment of races and as mentioned earlier, I just want to improve on my ability to pick up sort of tempo in the race. Just the lower class races are the ones that mainly get me with open class free for all list, I get a pretty good idea. They tend to race fairly consistent whereas, in the lower classes, which might be the MO or C2 classes they have on Friday nights now. You think you’ve got a race worked out and there’s only two horses that may contest the lead and you price it that way. Think you have it covered and the next thing you see there are 4 and 5 across the track all vying to get up there. It’s just one thing that I want to improve upon. Long term, it should help improve my profit.

David Duffield: Excellent. Good luck to you. Thanks for joining us again today. It’s interesting to track your journey. Look forward to our next chat, as I said, a little later in the year or early next year.

Trent Orwin: Great. Thanks Dave.

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How to handle big bankroll changes

by David on March 13, 2015

What do you do when your betting bank doubles? Is it full-steam ahead, or should you take some or all of that as profits? How much should you increase your bet size, if at all?

That’s a nice problem to have to deal with, but what should you do if you wipe out half your betting bank?

There is no right or wrong answer because everyone’s betting bank, punting goals, financial commitments and mindset are all different. But here are a few options to consider:

(1) Percentage of bank fixed

This is where you record your total funds set aside for betting, calculate your bet size accordingly and never waiver from that. Eg a $10,000 bank and 1% bets means you are betting $100 a race. Now flat betting isn’t a recommended strategy whatsoever, so maybe you bet to collect 5% of your bank at either your rated price or the market odds. So in that case it means betting to collect $500.

In a scenario like this if you have doubled your bank and want to increase your bet size you’d be well advised to do it gradually. Phase it in. For example instead of going from $100 to $200 per bet overnight, increase it say $10 a week for 10 weeks. Doubling overnight causes a lot of people extra stress, whereas doing it over time can be a win-win. That’s because if you continue to win then you are winning more dollars than you were previously. While if you do go through a losing streak then at least you are losing a lot less than if you had gone the doubling overnight option. Plus at the end of 10 weeks you will get to where you wanted to in terms of staking.

(2) Percentage of bank – fluctuating

The strategy here is that your bet size is based on a percentage of your bankroll before each raceday, or even before each bet. So your bet size increases during a good run and reduces when things aren’t going well. It doesn’t suit everyone though because a sustained losing run reduces your bet size and means that it takes longer to recover than the fixed strategy. It’s like a stockmarket scenario whereby if your shares drop 50% in price, you actually then need them to double just to get back to where you started.

Our NSW ratings analyst Nathan Snow calculates his bet size at the start of every day based on his total bankroll at that time. Right from when he first started out as a professional punter he wanted to make sure that he never, ever went bust. The consequence of that would mean having to get a ‘real job’ which was to be avoided at all costs. So by cutting back his bet size during a lean trot he protects his bank. And when the upswing comes his bet size in dollar terms is still big enough to generate good profits. Either way he manages to sleep well at night rather than worrying about ever wiping out.

Our Melbourne ratings analyst Andrew Hannan actually re-calculates his betting bank before every race.

(3) Percentage of bank – highest point
Another option is a balanced approach where any time you hit a new high, you increase your stake accordingly. So you can grow your bet size as you achieve success. It’s a variation of option 2 above (percentage of fluctuating) but you should understand there is less drawdown protection. If you have staked too aggressively it is possible to go bust.

(4) Take some profits and re-calculate
This is where if your betting bank reaches the goal of a new high (say 50% growth), you take a portion in profits and the remainder is retained and your bet size increased accordingly. So you might pay yourself 25% and also increase your bet size by 25%

Harness racing professional punter Ben Krahe suggests you reward yourself after a good run of success. In Episode 69 of the Betting 360 podcast he said: “When you win, you should actually reward yourself, go and spend the money on something. Go and buy yourself a new pair of jeans or go out for dinner or whatever, because you want to be able to enjoy what you’re winning and the reason you’re doing it.”

“It’s well and good to keep the money in the bank and to have a bank for the bad times, but go and spend some of your money and when you do it, think back and think how happy you are that you were disciplined and the way you got there as opposed to fluking a couple of winners on a Saturday afternoon in the old times, but this way you’ve really ground it out and you’ve done it the right way.”

Those are four strategies to consider and of course there are many variations of each.

With any approach it is important to understand variance in betting which we have written about many times. Or as tennis betting syndicate operator Elihu Feustel says: ‘use math or die’.

It’s essential to have a plan for rising and falling banks because you will encounter both as a punter. As the boy scouts say – be prepared.

Good punting

David Duffield

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