Champion Profits Trades and YTD results

by darryn January 27, 2012

Thanks to Kvitova going down for us we are now winning 15.65 units in the first 3 weeks of 2012 with an overall strike rate of 56% from 46 trades.

That’s an excellent profit on turnover in anyone’s language, but to be honest the strike rate is down on our average and we believe we can do much better – and with NRL and AFL season not far away, we are well placed for another big year.

The year to date results can be seen on this page.

On to today’s analysis:

TENNIS

Novak Djokovic(SRB) Rank 1
   VS    Andy Murray(GBR) Rank 4

Head to Head Matches   Novak Djokovic leads 6-4, but Murray leads 4-2 from last 6   inlc their last match at Cincinnati last Aug when Djokovic retired with the score at 6-4 3-0

COMMENT:    Ferrer was pathetic in not being able to put away a struggling Djokovic on Wed.. Had the Serb been playing Murray, Federer or Nadal it is doubtful if he would still be in the tournament. The fascinating aspect of this intriguing match is Djokovic’s fitness, as he will need to be 100% to beat Murray who is in great form and does not have the concern of choking in a slam final. Djokovic has said that he does not have any physical issues, but clearly something was wrong and it remains to be seen if it returns, whatever it was, we certainly do not wish to take 1.43 to find out.

STAKING PLAN:    We are having an excellent month and now that Kvitova has kindly bowed out for us, there is little point undoing our good work and risking Djokovic further although he only loses us 2.88 units if he wins his next 2 matches. Our aim to try and do what we did with Berdych and put a back bet in for him at 2.44 for 2 Units which will scratch out our initial trade. We will achieve this if either Murray tonight or Nadal on Saturday night can win the first set. A scratch trade is a good trade as we had an opportunity to win. Our fundamental philosophy is always to make small regular profits and minimize losses which will yield us a big profitable year.

(3)Victoria Azarenka(BLR)

   VS    (4)Maria Sharapova(RUS)

Head to Head Matches   Tied 3-3

These two grunters have not met since Rome (clay) last May when Sharapova won after losing the 1st set and Aza retired. Azarenka won the previous 2 matches on hard court.

COMMENT:    It will be a surprise if this game does not go 3 sets, but given both ladies tend to have a heart attack when they see the winning post; we suggest exotics may be the best way to go.

Remember that Sharapova has a 96% win record when she wins the first set, and both ladies will get nervous trying to serve out for the set or match. They are actually better off receiving so they cannot double fault.

Sharapova has done a remarkable job to make the final given her shoulder injury and how dedicated she has been to make it back as fit as she is. It would be wise to not place too much emphasis on her form over the last 12 months, but she is certainly back as good as ever now. She could not buy a first serve against Kvitova and would have won easily with a better display, and it looms again as the main excuse for her here if she is beaten. Azarenka has as much talent as any player, but this is new ground for her and she has shown in the past that she is a nervous wreck on big points, and this will be her biggest mountain ever. It is hard to be enticed by her skinny odds which are influenced by results from the last year which we have suggested could be misleading. The statistical probability needs to be weighted with Sharapova’s shoulder injury.

STAKING PLAN: Nothing in the plan, but if members wish to have an interest, you should bet that the match will go 3 sets, and or, back Sharapova if she wins the first set providing she is beaten in set 2 and if she is $2.00 or better.

QUOTE:           “Her movements around the court and her attitude have changed so much in the last 12 months.” Rennae Stubbs, Channel 7 commentator discussing Victoria Azarenka.

Pending tennis bets:

Traders:          Lay Djokovic at 2.44 for 2 units and we will see where we are later.

Punters:          Lay Djokovic for 2 units @ 2.44 and cheer for Murray in the semi.

NOTE:  Only have this Back bet if Djokovic is still a liability. You need to place the back bet and click the KEEP BET function so your bet stays live during the game.

FOOTBALL: 

Game: Gold Coast v Central Coast Mariners
League: A-League
Time: 8.00pm AEDT 9.00 am GMT
Betfair Market:  Match odds

Top of the league plays bottom of the league and we can only see one result.

Central Coast have won 8 of their last 10 away matches and they have won the first half in 11/19 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 5/9 Gold Coast Utd home matches against top-half teams.

The Gold Coast are better than their position portrays however the Mariners are on a mission and will see this as a must win to keep their run going.

Confidence is battered as far as the Gold Coast go. It doesn’t help when players don’t know what is happening with their contracts and playing futures beyond this season.

Could prove to be an arm wrestle but at even money, we will take the Mariners all day. Especially when the statistics show they should be 1.25.

Back Central Coast for 3 units @ 2.00 and lay 5.22 units @ 1.15 Rating 160

Cricket – Big Bash Final

Sat Jan 28           Perth Scorchers v Sydney Sixers
Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth 23 – 39° C

COMMENT: If we take a line on the last time these two teams played each other, the Scorchers have plenty in their favour.  The game was played at the 6s home ground at the SCG on Jan 18, only nine days ago, and the locals won the toss, batted first and won by only a single run after Mitch Starc had a blinder claiming 3 wickets (S. Marsh, M. Marsh and Collingwood) for 28 runs.

The Final will be different at the WACA in very hot conditions (39 deg) in front of a biased sold out crowd. The Scorchers would be confidant about running down the 6s this time at home, especially as Mitch Marsh went for a duck last time they met, but if the locals can win the toss and bat first, it is hard to see the Sydney team winning as they are not over strong early with batting.

We are already 7 Units up on the BBL, and do not like to invest in these games, but if you would like an interest our suggestion is to back whoever wins the toss at the team facing first has won 70% of the games. We think the current market odds are a fair representation.

Champion Profits – sports trading and analysis.

 

Robl’s red-hot return

by darryn January 24, 2012
Prior to his return to riding in late November last year Peter Robl said that “The past is the past and the future is what you make of it. And I’m going to make the most of it.”

He has been very true to his word and it’s quite ironic that a jockey returning from a suspension for betting has become one of the best punting propositions in NSW racing.

Following minor placings in his first two comeback races, Robl broke through at return ride number three and hasn’t looked back since.
156 rides for a massive 34% Profit on Turnover using proportionate staking is an exceptional record. Clearly experience and motivation is a deadly combination. Not to mention that the marketplace either forgot about him or wrote him off altogether.

To get an understanding of just how good those profit figures are, let’s compare them to the top 10 jockeys in the Sydney premiership –

So Sydney’s top ten jockeys are averaging a loss on turnover of 18%.

Robl is making a profit on turnover of 34%.

While his comeback has exceeded all expectations other than his own, I’ll finish with our usual disclaimer.

Don’t just blindly back all of Robl’s mounts and expect to do really well long-term because this market anomaly will not continue indefinitely.

Punting is not that easy unfortunately.

 

Weekend racing reviews – Saturday January 21st

by darryn January 22, 2012
Flemington review compiled by Rick Williams
 
Race 1.     1200M    Summer Heroes Raceday 1200

SHAMEXPRESS         DWAYNE DUNN     1st     $4
GALVEZ                     LUKE NOLEN         2nd     $4.40
CHASING KISSES      DEAN HOLLAND     3rd     $4.80

The early pace summed up this race, they walked through the first half of the race and it was very evident by the 400m that they were going to struggle to pick up the winner who looks very classy Shamexpress. He looked comfortable down his home straight and has more wins in him. The favourite was the Hayes runner Henia, he was last and on the fence and as quickly as we could see the winner being in no trouble we knew Henia was going to struggle to make enough ground. Chasing Kisses and Galvez were good but just not in the same league as the winner.

Worth noting:  Follow the winner.

Race 2.     1600M    St John Plate   

TOTAL ATTRACTION   BEN MELHAM     1st     $5
SILENT ATTITUDE       JACOB RULE      2nd     $18
BESANT                     NOEL CALLOW   3rd     $11

The speed map had Kellora as the clear leader here but it was all upside down pretty quickly when she settled midfield and came with a run a faded, her performance was a little inconclusive. The winner Total Attraction was really good again. She showed that she can settle closer to the speed and finish off and whilst doing that she overcame a few difficulties in the straight. Silent Attitude was the Adelaide visitor and she really kicked well over the concluding stages but was just nailed close to the line.

Worth noting: Total Attraction was really good, follow her. Forgive Kellora nothing went right for her.

Race 3.     1400M    Volunteer Fire Brigades Victoria

GOLDEN PENNY         STEVEN ARNOLD    1st     $5.50
LADY ROCK                JAKE NOONAN        2nd    $11
LEGION’S BELLE         JACOB RULE           3rd     $15

Legions Belle jumped well here and was able to stack them up throughout in a race that had very little speed. What that did was enable Golden Penny to run out a strong 1400m under the in form Arnold. She was tucked away throughout and was just a little too good for them with the run she had. Plenty made runs at the top of the straight but it was just too hard for them to make up any ground from back and wide.

Worth noting: Analyse your sectionals here to see what happened over the concluding stages. The margins won’t tell you the true outcome.

Race 4.     2000M    Life Saving Victoria Race to the Rescue   

ROYAL MAIL       JAKE NOONAN     1st     $3.60F
VIKING HERO     DAMIEN OLIVER    2nd    $4.40
PERSIAN STAR   GLEN BOSS          3rd     $8

The best ride won the race and that goes went to Noonan and Royal Mail.  Once they settled the speed was again slow and Noonan decided to make the move around them and take up the running. Being on pace and not a hard tempo it really suited him as he is rock hard fit and he was able to keep kicking with the handy claim. Umatic made a mid race move also and he battled on pretty well but was in the right spot. Viking Hero couldn’t really get going until late and he hit the line well. Hanks loomed up and was disappointing.

Worth noting: You can sack Hanks, he isn’t very serious.

Race 5.     1400M    Flying Doctor Plate   

FLYINGCONI        CRAIG NEWITT     1st     $3.40
VOLANDO            LUKE NOLEN       2nd    $9
WEALTHY LAD     DWAYNE DUNN   3rd     $9

Another race where the speed maps were out of the window quick smart when Cannonball settled back and Anteros and Diamonds At Dusk worked forward. Wealthy Lad landed in the right spot and had an excellent run throughout. He just found a couple of them a little too classy. Can’t knock the winner Flyingconi, he had a good run throughout and really hit the line well. He has made good improvement. Smokin Joey had a great run but yet again had no luck, he never has luck! Volando hit the line well and she is working towards a nice win.

Worth noting: Smokin Joey has to be on his last legs. Volando looks the one to follow.

Race 6.     1000M    Kensington Stakes   

FIRST COMMAND         STEVEN ARNOLD  1st     $4.80F
DECIRCLES                  DWAYNE DUNN     2nd    $7.50
WEEKEND SPECIAL     MICHAEL RODD     3rd     $5

After initially being caught near the outside Arnold steered the winner First Command to the inside and the old timer really did well. He was able to sit just off of them and sprinted really well to hold off the fast finishing Weekend Special. Esprit De Bullet ran well although he didn’t place, he looks in for a good campaign. 3yo Decircles did pretty well also, he is lightly race and should continue to improve. The Soldier was taken to the outside fence in what was a bad error in judgement by the jockey.

Worth noting: Hard to pick up on pacers down the straight.

Race 7.     1700M    SES Victorian Volunteers Handicap   

BOLTON     NICHOLAS HALL    1st     $6.50
CHASSE    CHRIS SYMONS     2nd    $5
SEGURO    JAKE NOONAN      3rd     $13

The planets aligned for Bolton and he dashed away to score an excellent win whilst on the quick back up. He was given a lovely ride by Hall and when the gaps opened he was able to work through and show enough turn of foot to put them away. Conquering Journey was heavily backed and yet again burnt punters that followed the money. He can’t be taken seriously. Ship In The Night was ridden upside down and that took away his finishing burst, poor tactics. Chasse did what he does best and that’s run into second and Seguro hit the line well for third and he is very close to a win.

Worth noting: Forgive Ship In The Night he settled to close to the speed.

Race 8.     1800M    Tributes Handicap 

INFUSE                 STEVEN KING      1st     $4.20
PHANTOM BREW  DAMIEN OLIVER   2nd    $9
SIDECAR               JAKE NOONAN     3rd     $8.50

Infuse was heavily backed, jumped well stacked them up and won well. He is a nice type on an upward spiral and will continue to improve and make less mistakes. He won this coming out of an RB58 and in the end he did it pretty easily and King had one ride one win. The rest of the race was fairly uneventful. Sidecar, Bold Trojan and Phantom Brew all worked and looked to plod to the line. Measin was again poor and not sure where to for him.

Worth noting: Follow Infuse

——————————————————————————————
 
Rosehill review compiled by Todd Burmester
Race 1

1st    Alberton Park        Chad Schofield
2nd   First Look              Hugh Bowman
3rd    Hatton Garden       Blake Shinn

We Betcha missed the start. Rosie’s Reward made its intentions known early but Forward Love kicked up inside it which ensured a good tempo. This left Rosmerta three wide on the speed with First Look and Alberton Park getting cushy runs in 4th and 5th. Once those in front were spent, these two settled down to fight it out with Alberton Park doing best for the win. Hatton Garden ran on reasonably well. The run of Recorrido was disappointing again. It seems she can occasionally look like a very good horse but for the moment is not going well.

Follow: Hatton Garden

Race 2

1st    Hardbreak Hotel  Rod Quinn
2nd   Thumbtacks        Glyn Schofield
3rd    Royal Esprit        Hugh Bowman

Good pace again here with So So Sure finding the fence in front of Riding To Win. This left Thumbtacks in the cheap seats so it had to be restrained back in the field. Similar to the first race, this then gave Hardbreak Hotel and Equable very good runs behind the speed. Irish Jig was another caught wide that eventually had to go back. In the run to the line, Hardbreak Hotel killed them but the run of Thumbtacks was very good to run on again into second after the forwards/backwards tactics. Royal Esprit missed the kick but got past the rest in the straight to run third.

Follow: Thumbtacks

Race 3

1st    Cavalry Rose        Glyn Schofield
2nd   Diamond Earth      Peter Robl
3rd    Taxmeifyoucan      Hugh Bowman

Plenty of pace as expected in the two-year-old event with Diamond Earth finding the front. Cavalry Rose made good use of its inside barrier to hold the fence and end up just behind the leaders.  Vavavic was caught three wide in third and Single In Paris had a horror run four wide. Diamond Earth took off upon straightening which let Cavalry Rose out of the pocket. At the 200m mark if you were on Diamond Earth you were shouting the bar however it stopped in the last 50m and Cavalry Rose kept coming to just get up on the line and she looked as if she will learn from the run.  Not a lot can be said for the rest as they were a good margin away. I liked the way the winner kept trying in the run to the line.

Follow: Diamond Earth

Race 4

1st    War Charm          Peter Robl
2nd   Aberrant               Sam Clipperton
3rd    Cindarockinrella    Andrew Stead

Miss Spoken found the front from Abberant and they did not look to go as fast here as in the early events. Cindarockinrella and Diamond To Pegasus were the ones getting nice runs behind the speed.  Angel Of Mercy and Hoylonny who were the top two in betting appeared to travel well in the run but were quickly in trouble upon straightening due to the slow pace and never threatened. The eventual winner in a blanket finish was War Charm which weaved its way through after an economical run three back on the fence. I am not sure the form of this race can be followed to reliably due to lack of pace.

Follow: Hoylonny (give it one more go, and look for a race with pace on)

Race 5

1st    Magic Weekend   Brenton Avdulla
2nd   Vilakazi Street     Glyn Schofield
3rd    Mighty Obvious    Tom Berry

Mighty Obvious was ridden with intention and found the lead. Princess Qualo was outside it with Magic Weekend caught three wide until eventually working to “the death seat”. They bunched up on the turn and in the end it was a fair effort by Magic Weekend to keep fighting all the way to the line and win narrowly from Vilakazi Street. The favourite in the race, Aeronautical, was out the back the whole way and never came into it. The form guide for him will have to read “see again”.  Perhaps another race where the form may not be all that reliable.

Follow: None to follow

Race 6

1st    Cabernet               Brenton Avdulla
2nd   Parthian                Sean Guymer
3rd    Mr Unforgettable    Andrew Stead

They took a little while to sort themselves out here but eventually O’Crikey which looked the likely leader found that position. Key West was outside him giving Parthian a good smother on the fence behind the leader. The impressive winner of the race was Cabernet who smoked its pipe four back on the fence. It was obvious the horse was bolting on the turn and Brenton Avdulla knew it. He rode a patient race taking inside runs to make ground before switching around heals and the horse did the rest. In the end she came clear to win by about three lengths and she can be followed to win more races. The rest had no excuses in my opinion.

Follow: Cabernet

Race 7

1st    Single               Nathan Berry
2nd   Rolling Pin         Hugh Bowman
3rd    Tropicana Girl    Corey Brown

The most interesting race of the day and in the end, the recipe for success was simple. Class and tactical speed. Rolling Pin found the front with its big weight and the eventual winner Single took a lovely run in about 6th on the fence. Single had been tried in better races as a three-year-old and the spell since seems to have improved it. The Owl settled second in the run but dropped out badly in the straight and you can imagine it will go for a spell now. Single railed up behind Rolling Pin before the turn and you had the feeling he would always get past him and he did. Jimmy Fortunes and Irish Love both get a pass mark here, however Irish Love has bad barrier manners.

Follow: Jimmy Fortunes

Race 8

1st    Kinnersley                  Adam Hyeronimous
2nd   Romanus                    Chris Reith
3rd    Oakfield Commands    Jim Cassidy

Kinnersley was wide early so worked to the lead when the pace was not fast. Oakfield Commands who many probably expected to lead landed second in the run. Kinnersley kept finding in the straight to hold on for the win. You have to give full marks to Adam Hyeronimous for the ride as he summed it up nicely early and took some initiative. Romanus ran on as it often does to get into second in front of Oakfield Commands. Think Mink will be improved for the run and wound up fourth.

Follow: Think Mink

Specials from the meeting: Hatton Garden, Cabernet, Think Mink

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