Saturday’s horse racing tips

Listen to Ed discussing two value bets for tomorrow:

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Randwick Race 2 #3 Ofcourseican
First up at Hawkesbury on 24th August it knuckled down really well late to run down Bluzar, who had been an impressive trial winner. The merit in this performance was accentuated by the fact that Ofcourseican had missed work and a trial leading up that run, so we expect it to be very much improved here. Of course it meets the very very promising Waterhouse horse Kiss From A Rose who has won two races to date, but has yet to prove itself beyond BM68 races so far, although not to say that it’s not capable. At the odds we want to be on Ofcourseican with one proviso – there is the possibility of rain at Randwick later in the day but should it come early this is one horse we don’t want to be on.

Flemington Race 5 #8 Rhythm In Paris
The rain in Melbourne enhances the chances of this mare. Last start at Caulfield it got back over 1200m but managed to easily take care of Response, Lady Lynette and No Evidence Needed. Meets all of those horses here today at the extended trip of 1400m. The tendency for leaders to dominate the Flemington 1400m is a slight concern, however the big track will enable Rhythm In Paris to get her opportunity. Must say would have preferred it to have drawn out instead of barrier 1 but it shouldn’t make a lot of difference as it’s a horse with an imperfect profile that tends to race back in the field. Given the quality of it’s last win we are prepared to bend the rules and be on it tomorrow.

Good luck

Ed Kennett

Lessons from the world’s biggest ‘punter’

Part one of this article last week discussed what we as punters could learn from the world’s biggest hedge fund. We looked at research, strategy and the mathematics of punting.

Here are the remaining lessons that we can apply from the Bridgewater Associates handbook:

The right mindset If you don’t mind being wrong on the way to being right, you will learn a lot.

A large impediment to punting success is emotional. Ego is the biggest single one, but you can probably get what you want out of betting if you can suspend your ego and take a no-excuses approach to achieving your goals with open-mindedness, determination and courage.

You mustn’t feel bad about your mistakes because:
1) they are to be expected,
2) they’re the first and most essential part of the learning process, and
3) feeling bad about them will prevent you from getting better.

Use mistakes as learning and growing experiences because the first step toward deep, fundamental improvement is feeling the pain of failing and accepting the responsibility for it.

Pain + Reflection = Progress
Reality + Dreams + Determination = A Successful Punter

Opinions are like a**holes, everyone has one While being open-minded is far more important than being bright or smart, not all opinions are equally valuable so don’t treat them as such. Many are worthless or even harmful so it is not logical to treat them as equally valuable. For example, the views of people without any proven record of profitable tips or ratings are not equal to the views of people with great track records and experience.
Just because the jockey, trainer, or TV/radio/print journalist gets a lot of media exposure doesn’t mean that their selections make a profit.

Still, all views should be considered in an open-minded way, but put in the proper context of experience and track record. Ask yourself whether they have earned the right for you to place any importance whatsoever in what they have to say. Opinions are easy to produce, so there is an abundance of bad ones around.

Do the hard things

Force yourself to do the difficult things because the cost of not doing them is enormous. It’s a
fundamental law of nature that you have to do difficult things to gain strength and power. A bit like pushing yourself extra hard at the gym, after a while you make the connection between doing difficult things and the benefits you get from doing them and with time you come to look forward to doing these difficult things.

This may be putting twice as much effort into analyzing half as many races, shopping for the best available odds, keeping honest and detailed records, or learning exactly how to apply sectional times as part of your analysis.

It’s a fact that for most people the thing they avoid doing is the exact thing they should be doing.

Know what value is

Most punters would agree that if you are not betting on the value runners you can’t win long-term. By definition, unless you are getting odds that are greater than their true chance of winning, you can’t possibly make a profit. You will back your share of winners, but will still be a long-term losing punter.

But how do you know what value is if you don’t have a set of rated prices? Do you just guess whether the $3 available about your top selection is good value, or whether it is well and truly under the odds?

You will get what you deserve

The results that you end up with will reflect how you handle everything to do with gambling. So take control of your betting life and hold yourself accountable. People who wish for a great result but are unwilling to do what it takes to get there, will fail. Getting more worked up and shouting louder at the TV screen or radio won’t improve your winning strike-rate.

When trying to understand and diagnose problems, it’s important to avoid being a “Monday expert,” That is, evaluating the merits of a past decision based on what you know now, versus what you could have reasonably known at the time of the decision. Do this by asking the question, “What should an intelligent punter have known in that situation?”

Summary

So to summarize this article and once again paraphrase the Bridgewater handbook, if you are serious about being a winning horse racing or sports betting punter you must:

  • Determine the best questions
  • Find the right answers
  • Design and implement a plan
  • Understand maths and mindset
  • Do the hard things
  • Know what value is
  • Understand that you will get what you deserve
You can comment on this article at our blog.
Good punting
David Duffield

Rosehill and Caulfield sectional times

The two pdf documents below highlight the best and worst runs of the day and some blackbookers to follow.

Click here for Rosehill

Click here for Caulfield

Memsie Stakes and Golden Rose reviewed

Memsie Stakes recap

This race was run at a farcical pace and Typhoon Tracy’s run was a disgraceful performance at face value. It’s safe to say she can’t pick her feet up in slow going. Sure she did win at Rosehill in April on Slow but she beat Illuminates, Montana Flyer, Miss Marielle etc so it was only her class that got her there that day. In the Memsie they ran 1:26.68 which was comparable to races 1 (1:26.73) and race 2 (1:26.51), the difference being the finishing sectionals. The winner So You Think got home in 11.71, 11.07, 11.77, Whobegotyou in 11.74, 10.95, 11.79 and Shootout 11.87, 11.23, 11.56. I didn’t back Shootout, but on facts and figures it’s hard to fathom how it was beaten given the closing sectionals but more importantly how did it get in the terrible wide position it was in given the slow early speed? It lost the race between the 800 and the 600. So You Think was good being first up and all, but was handed the race on a platter. In summary, Typhoon Tracey will never win a race on affected going, Shootout was brilliant (but crucified) and So You Think was flattered.

Rosehill recap

Rosehill Race 4 Concorde Stakes 1100m
Reward For Effort controlled the race and given the slow tempo and the fact they were able to complete the final 600 in 33.84 meant nothing from behind it was any possibilty of making ground. The win still had merit given this horse has just come off a very lengthy spell due to injury and the time of 1.03.38 was only 1 length inferior to More Joyous in the Sheraco Stakes. Obviously it can go on with quite a deal of improvement still there. Trusting was excellent. Given the way the race was run it’s effort to finish off proved it is back to what it showed in it’s earlier preparation. McLintock went well enough and with continued fitness will be well suited in the coming weeks at 1400. Forgive Trim who was back and had no chance.

Rosehill Race 5 Premiers Cup 1800m
Snow Alert had to work early to get across and certainly went better on the firmer surface as expected. The last 600 in 34.70 gave advantage to the on pacers and given Scouting Wide doesn’t have the ability to quicken it was clear it wasn’t going to win. It’s run however given those circumstances was good and as it gets fitter will be competitive past 2000m but only if allowed to  dictate and put a gap in them from 800 taking the sprint out of those chasing. Expect to see Scouting wide in the Wyong Cup and Snow Alert will probably go to Newcastle.

Race 6 The Golden Rose 1400m
With genuine speed on Squamosa went to the lead in a very rough affair early that resulted in Nash Rawiller being given a suspension. Squamosa was excellent and probably would have held on had it drawn in. To do what it did under the circumstances was excellent. Toorak Toff was given a perfect ride by Oliver and the good tempo saw it finish off as expected. I Love This City possibly should/could well have won had Parr elected to follow the eventual winner. It’s run was slashing but really needs 1600m given its propensity to race well back. No doubt the Guineas will be in Graeme Begg’s sights now. Masquerader had no chance to get clear running. Kudakalari was very good and needs ground so the Derby could well be the direction it takes.

Race 7 The Sheraco Stakes
Certainly no excuses can be made for on speed horses in the beaten division if the timing and sectionals were recorded correctly, but there has to be a query on that. The clock said last 600 in 33.64 but given the winner More Joyous was able to come from well back as did Girl Hussler it appears an anomaly. I will follow up on that. Time aside More Joyous (who had many elements against it) was able to round them up with only Girl Hussler providing opposition as they went to the line. There were some notable failures in the race in particular De Lightning Ridge who still has some coat to lose but who seems to need 10/10 things to go it’s way before it wins. Sister Madly was well supported and went well enough.

Follow: Snow Alert, More Joyous, Trusting.

Forget: De Lightning Ridge.

Tips on video analysis (part two)

Following is the second part of my discussion with our Senior Form Analyst regarding what to look for when watching race replays.

David Duffield: So when you’re actually watching the video, what are you looking for other than the pace of the race and luck in running? I mean are you looking at things like the horse’s galloping action?

Ed Kennett: Absolutely and with the advantage of head on shots at most televised events these days it is so much easier to do. I am looking for ungainly or extravagant actions, those who throw down poorly, lay in, lay out, hang, reef, pull or who have poor head carry.

Humans have trouble breaking bad habits and horses are the same and those habits can be the difference between winning and running a close second. Poor actions lead to injury and injury leads to inconsistency.

On the flipside those who race tractably with good actions and carry their head well who are on-pacers and are in a suitable event, these horses profile well and are good long-term betting propositions.

DD: So can the weekend punter with pay TV gain a lot just by watching the videos, or do they also need other information like stewards reports and sectional times?

EK: Realistically, watching replays places a punter at a decided advantage however to do it without the sectionals is quite frankly a waste of time. Unless of course you are an exceptional judge of pace.

DD: So how should they go about using the sectional time information? I know some horses run what appear to be great sectionals pretty much every start but rarely win, while others run what look to be sensational sectionals in a race but then can’t re-produce anything like that next time round?

EK: True but there is a good reason for that. Race tempo alters immensely race to race and can be the undoing of many a horse. As I stated earlier some horses can run amazing closing sections off a slow speed but few can run quick off a solid tempo. Obviously that is the sign of a really good horse. I don’t bet in races where my profile or criteria is not met. It’s as simple as that.

Look for those individuals who bucked the trend and either did it at both ends or whom came from off the pace in a slowly run affair and got home over them in a quick closing sectional. This type could well be in a race over the next few weeks where it will be on or near the lead which makes it a good betting proposition.

DD: So are you giving the horse a rating just for that race or does each horse have a career rating that you then adjust after each run?

EK: The historical rating really doesn’t mean all that much to me. I am more interested in the last 3-4 runs and drawing a comparison to how it is performing relative to the same period in its previous preparation. My data is recorded numerically but it is also graphed to make it easier to decipher this information.

DD: So just to summarise, what can punters can learn by watching race replays?

EK: Apart from the obvious, when replays are viewed in association with the sectionals it is easy to determine the merit of a run. Many times what may have been considered to be an outstanding run may well have been little more than average and by the same token some horses that may have initially appeared to be disappointing may well have performed quite well under the circumstances.

You have to rely on the data provided and as I alluded to earlier sometimes it is incorrect but overall it has to be taken at face value.

If you are unsure, look to see the horses that finished near or around the one you are watching and you can draw a conclusion from there. The more replays you watch the better you will get and the harder you work the ‘luckier’ you will become.

Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-08-29

Golden Rose Selection

Click on the play button below to hear Ed explain why he likes the following bet tomorrow:

Rosehill Race 6 # 4 Masquerader
High Quality. Was motoring late when just failed to run down Squamosa here at 1200m on a slow track on 14th August. With the prospect of good speed in this race it’s hard to go past Masqerader, especially given the 4.5kg turnaround it has on Gai’s Colt Squamosa together with the step up to 1400.

 Golden Rose Selection: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Part I: Lessons from the world’s biggest ‘punter’

Instead of going for the big win by trying to find undervalued companies that suddenly jump in value, the world’s biggest hedge fund concentrates on achieving small but consistent gains. This strategy makes Bridgewater Associates very different to it’s competitors.Ray Dalio started the company in 1975 and operated from an extra bedroom in his New York apartment. He turned it into the world’s biggest hedge fund, with $US80 billion currently under management.

The fund has returned an average of about 14% annually over an almost 20 year period, and even posted a 14% return in 2008 when 70% of hedge funds lost money.So what does any of this have to do with betting on horse racing?Dalio’s unofficial operations handbook was recently made public and many of the almost 300 principles discuss the ‘search for truth’. So I am going to paraphrase some of his principles and apply them to punting.

FIND THE BEST ANSWER, NOT THE BEST ONE YOU HAVE

Recognize the power of asking: “What don’t I know and what should I do about it?” Your goal is to find the best answer, not to give the best one you have. Do you know the answers to the most important punting questions, such as the mathematics of punting, winning strike-rates, profit on turnover, money management and whether various racing wives tales have any element of truth?

For example, what kind of losing run can I expect from a 25% winning strike-rate? How much of my bank should I outlay per race? Is there such a thing as 2nd up syndrome? Does dropping back in distance have a negative effect on a horse’s winning chance? How do favourites perform on wet tracks versus dry? Can you make money backing the top trainers or jockeys? Are staying events less predictable than sprints? There is an unlimited list of questions, but do you have the best answers to the most important ones?

IS YOUR ANALYSIS BETTER THAN THE MARKET? Click Here To Read More

Blackbooker profits

We have a strict set of criteria that a horse must meet in order to qualify as a blackbooker. At the very least they need to have run fast overall and sectional times, race on the pace and are improving in their preparation.
This service has achieved very good results in the two years since inception and here is the most recent 25 bet cycle:
blackbooker profits

Tips on video analysis

I recently chatted about video analysis with Ed Kennett, our ratings expert, Senior Form Analyst and a very successful professional punter.

DD: You spend a lot of your life watching videos. Can you talk us through that process?

EK: Watching replays is one of those necessities that has to be done. It can be tedious and time consuming but extremely rewarding and the more I do it the luckier I get so to speak. Prior to watching replays I need two things and they are critical. The first is a set of sectionals for the meeting and the second is knowledge of whether there was possible track bias on the day. Ultimately, having the sectionals will allow me to determine the latter. Once I’ve established that I’ll then go through each race in detail.

I view each race as many times as there are horses. So if there are six runners I watch it six times, and if there are 16 runners I watch it 16 times, each time concentrating solely on one horse. The purpose is to re-rate each individual on today’s run. All runners are given plus or minus lengths based on luck in running or lack thereof, jockey error etc. This ensures each individual is rated correctly, so when I am doing future price assessments there is no need to have to remember what happened in the run as it has already been adjusted.

These figures are recorded onto a race sheet and entered onto my data base every few days and an automated model adjusts the rating. Other pertinent race comments are also entered alongside each individual runner as well as an overview for the race itself.

I am also looking for horses that profile well for the future, particularly amongst the maidens.

DD: And that profile is based on on-pace runners? Click Here To Read More