Finding winners and value with Deane Lester

by David on August 21, 2014

Deane Lester 220x165 2
Deane Lester has spent a lifetime in the racing industry and has a big following from his work with RSN, Sky Sports Radio and many other media outlets. For a number of years now he has been widely respected as one of the best form analysts in the country.

He joins us on the Betting 360 podcast to discuss his approach to finding winners and value.

Punting Insights You’ll Find

  • Each step of Deane’s form analysis process
  • How to assess gear changes, trackwork, trials and sectionals
  • The best betting races to get involved in
  • His favourite trainers and jockeys
  • An early look at the Cups and some horses set for a big Spring

(Click to continue reading…)

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Caulfield Review by Ray Hickson

Race 1: ANZAC Centenary (1600m)

1st Spirit Of Heaven – Regan Bayliss
2nd Spirited Will – Glen Boss
3rd Oriental Ruby – Mark Zahra

Evie Rose broke the line first and crossed to the fence ahead of Noble Twostep and To Be Honest before Spirit Of Heaven accelerated over and sat up second. Atlantis Dream was handy as well but was checked and dropped back midfield around Oriental Ruby. Evie Rose had control passing the 800m but Spirit Of Heaven was right on her hammer as a couple of runs started to come from Atlantis Dream and Emmooki’s Star and they flushed To Be Honest out. Emmooki’s Star was gone as fast as she improved and that left a line of four on the turn. Spirit Of Heaven took over as they cornered and skipped away. Atlantis Dream couldn’t go with her but boxed on and Oriental Ruby found a gap to make ground. To Be Honest was battling and Spirited Will came off heels behind them to run on. Spirit Of Heaven drove further ahead inside the 200m and was far too good. Spirited Will arrived in time to cut Oriental Ruby out of second with Atlantis Dream between them. Acapela came from last to run fifth but looked very one paced. The winner is flying and with 51kg was entitled to run well. Be a little forgiving of Atlantis Dream.

Follow: Spirit Of Heaven still has upside.
(Click to continue reading…)

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Greg Lethe: Framing a market

by David on August 14, 2014

By professional greyhound punter Greg Lethe

There’s no right or wrong way to frame a market for an event. I’ve seen many different ways used successfully. The element they all have in common is a consistent structure and methods. Nobody gets every market right every time but if they follow a consistent structure the swings and roundabouts of a long term cycle will even themselves out.

Here is my method:

Step 1 – Download ratings data for every runner engaged from my database. The ratings data delivers some key numbers. Last start rating at the track, Last 5 ratings at the track, career best rating at the track and sectional times.

Step 2 – Download running style data from my database. Running style data includes box manners and early running direction, chasing vigor, fitness and ideal race distance.

Step 3 – Download all trial information from my database. Trial information is sourced from a network of trail watchers.

Step 4 – Research all runners on debut at the track. This research involves analyzing video replays of their lead up races. It also involves contacting local experts who cover the track where the dog is trained.

Step 5 – Prepare a directional speed map and assign every runner a numeric value based solely on their advantage or disadvantage in the run to the first turn. Their ability or class is not considered in this value. This numeric value can be a + or – value ranging from -10 to 10.

Step 6 – Assign a numeric value to each runner based on the trainer. This numeric value can be a + or – value ranging from -3 to 3.

Step 7 – Calculate by a formula all of the numeric values above and create a “global” numeric value for each runner.

Step 8 – Add all of the runners from each race and get a race total.

Step 9 - Calculate the percentage each runner is of their race total.

Step 10 – Convert that percentage to the appropriate price based on a 100% market.

Summary
Framing a market starts well before the fields are drawn. It starts with video analysis of the preceding meetings and developing a database. The database builds knowledge of every runner in a standard comparative format. Accurate markets set up a base position to build a staking strategy that suits each punter’s needs.

More information on Greg’s approach is available on our Greyhound Guru page.

He recently shared his keys to successful punting.

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Weekend Racing reviews – Saturday August 9

by darryn on August 11, 2014

Flemington Review by Ray Hickson

Race 1

1st Couldn’t Agreemore – Dom Tourneur
2nd Laohu – Dwayne Dunn
3rd Kristy Lee – Glen Boss

Fab Fevola showed all his usual speed and led comfortably from Nicholls Court with Couldn’t Agreemore angling for a trail behind the leader. Splash Of Moet tucked in for a trail. Out on their own in the centre of the track were Laohu and Beauty Cash. Fab Fevola was under pressure a fair way out and had challengers on both sides with Nicholls Court on the outside and Couldn’t Agreemore going inside to run on. Kristy Lee was following him. Out wider Laohu was right up there but didn’t quite have the sprint to go with them and Splash Of Moet had her chance in the clear to run on. Couldn’t Agreemore sprinted to lead passing the 200m and kicked right away. Laohu started to wind up and hit the line hard late to eat into the margin and Kristy Lee poked through on the inside to grab third. Much better run from her compared to Caulfield but not sure she’s a Melbourne horse.
Nicholls Court and Splash Of Moet battled on but had their chance.

Follow: Laohu isn’t really a 1000m horse and is best around a bend where he can dictate.
(Click to continue reading…)

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Keys To Successful Punting

by David on August 8, 2014

By professional greyhound punter Greg Lethe

1. Finding an edge

Punting is a constantly changing environment and finding an edge is difficult. The task is constant because once an edge is found it invariably evaporates. Technology has to be embraced but without doubt has made the edges more difficult to find. It’s fair and logical to say the markets with the biggest potential earnings attract the most attention. This high attention creates a strong consensus market and certainly one that needs to be respected. Profits are still possible but swimming against a strong tide requires a better swimmer. The edges are easier to find in more obscure events and markets although the risk of over investing needs to be front of mind.

2. Have Faith

Faith is an essential element of any long term endeavor. It generally builds up over time or through extensive research. Whether using a personally generated position or advice from another source a lack of faith will hinder success. Any long term endeavor will involve challenges and punting is no different. From my observation the successful punters bet with a level head. They don’t allow wins or losses to change their path or opinion.

3. Value, Value, Value

You can’t create value but successful punters recognise it and capitalize on it. What can be created is a quality market position as reference point. Nobody gets it right every time but you don’t have to. However without a reference point punters are lost. The term value is often misunderstood. Many punters and media suggest it means looking for mid to long price opportunities. The fact is value occurs at all points of the price spectrum. Having a full (every runner) price assessment is imperative to being successful. Without it recognising value across the full spectrum isn’t possible.

4. Set realistic goals

Examine your current position and where you want to be. Conduct a SWOT analysis it will establish the path. Focus on financial position, return on turnover, number and type of events available, number of wagering operators available, staking plans, quality of data (form).

5. Understand yourself

Every punter has a different risk personality. Engaging in an unsuitable position will lead to stress. Which in turn will lead to errors and poor decision making. Success can be found at all risk positions but only by people suited to the environment.

6. Respect every dollar

Too often successful punters lose touch with the true value of the dollar. Their bets become like monopoly money and quickly spiral out of control. Discipline goes out the window and failure follows.

7. Exercise

In the case of professional punters the sedentary nature of the tasks make exercise essential. Healthy body healthy mind.

8. Have other interests

With the modern day wall to wall model punting can become consuming. To have long term success punters need to switch off and get away mentally.

9. Luck doesn’t exist

Eliminate the word luck from your vocabulary. Good or bad luck doesn’t exist. They counter each other over time.

What are your keys to successful punting?

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To Protest or not

by darryn on August 6, 2014

By Todd Burmester

Controversial protest decisions have been a bugbear of mine for a while now. The most memorable one in recent years that took my attention was when Driefontein took the Magic Millions from stablemate No Looking Back. On that day, I was adamant that this was the wrong decision. There have been a few since that I have seriously wondered about, but none more so than in the first race on Saturday when Liberation was denied victory on protest from the rider on Press Report.

As a quick review of the race, Liberation was ridden with intent to find the front and did so. Around the turn, the horse put up a good kick, and had a clear lead at the 150m mark, when it decided to run out sharply. In the stewards room, it was deemed that this wayward manner had interfered with the chances of Press Report, and the stewards were of the opinion that without Liberation running out, Press Report would have won the race.

How they formed this decision, I have no idea. Interestingly Mark Sheehan who was calling the race mentioned Press Report was under the whip and trying hard but making no impression or words to that effect. Sheehan has seen a race or two in his time, so I don’t think we should write off his opinion as misguided.

To the credit of Winona Costin on Press Report, I do have to give it to her for a “clever” effort to ride her horse vigorously over the closing stages to get as close as she could to the winner, who clearly lost momentum when it ran about. The point here is though, the winner cost itself ground, but in no way to my eye appeared to cost the runner up any ground. At the time the alleged interference occurred, Liberation looked to be sufficiently clear of Press Report and entitle it to use as much of the track as it wanted to. This was also the argument put forward in the stewards room.

Although I was not one of them, plenty of punters found yet another way to lose their money when the decision came through. Various corporate bookmakers pay out on both runners when a protest is upheld, and it makes me wonder, is this the only “safe” way to bet anymore, when we have to rely upon decisions such as this? Obviously the TAB cannot introduce a payout on both runners in their parimutuel betting, so there can never really be a level playing field for the poor old punter to choose where they bet, and trust they will be paid when their horse is first past the post.

Maybe there should be some sort of radical change, by which upheld protest decisions only impact the payment of prizemoney to connections, but wagers are all settled however they finish across the line. It sounds a bit crazy when you first think about it, but upon reflection, if you bet on a greyhound that gets skittled by another runner, there is no grounds for protest to change the result.

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Weekend Racing Review – August 2nd

by darryn on August 4, 2014

Moonee Valley review from Ray Hickson

Race 1: The Valley Handicap (2040m)

1st Bagman – Craig Newitt
2nd Vintage Lad – Katelyn Mallyon
3rd Hippopus – Vlad Duric

Hippopus showed pace to cross and lead, after working a little, from Vintage Lad who raced without cover and Shenzhou SteedsFlashy Fella improved inside him to be third by midrace and Bagman trailed. Hippopus strode along to the 600m where Vintage Lad moved up to put a little pressure on. Shenzhou Steeds and Flashy Fella were under pressure. Bagman sat back and waited. Vintage Lad went for home on the turn though Hippopus did stick on a bit. Bagman came with his run in the straight and finished too well, giving Vintage Lad 7.5kg and a head start. Hippopus fought on pretty well first-up and the other two disappointed.

Follow: Hippopus on wet tracks.
(Click to continue reading…)

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Is Bitcoin the future of gambling?

by David on August 1, 2014

James-Canning-framebitcoin_logo_31993 By guest contributor James Canning of the Bitcoin Betting Guide

What are Bitcoins?
Bitcoin is a digital currency with its own payment processor which allows any 2 people to transact almost free and instantly, anytime, any amount, anywhere online with no 3rd parties such as banks or governments involved. Sending someone money is as quick and easy as sending an email.

The amazing technological innovation is to use a decentralized peer 2 peer network to record and verify all transactions on a public ledger based on proof. This has profound implications for all tech-based areas of our lives not just money. For example this is the best way to conduct electronic voting, to record and verify ownership titles for all types of property, to execute a will and to register domain names.

Bitcoin Gambling
Bitcoin gambling is big business because bitcoins unique attributes and characteristics make it perfect for gambling and because of all the hassles and friction in involved in gambling with government currencies such as ID verification and credit card fraud. The advantages of bitcoin gambling include

  • Free and instant deposits and withdraws of any amount 24/7
  • The betting operators save so much money in transaction processing and charge backs that they can give higher payouts
  • Betting anonymously makes it impossible for a sportsbook to limit you for winning too often or to sell your details and credit card information
  • Betting anonymously makes it easier maintain privacy, avoid legal restrictions and avoid tax burdens.
  • Users can partake in provably fair gambling

Is it Legal?
There are no specific laws relating to gambling with bitcoin. As such we assume that gambling with bitcoins falls in the same legal category as gambling with government currency. If the type of gambling you want to do is legal with AUD then the same type of gambling is still legal with bitcoins. For more information click here.

Bitcoin and Race Fixing
Bitcoin and race fixing are a match made in heaven. We know no cases of bitcoin being used for race fixing yet, but then we wouldn’t know about it would we? It would be anonymous and no one but the jockey would be involved making it near impossible to detect.

To fix a race with AUD several people have to co-operate together. First you need a group of bettors because one individual gambler could not get enough money on without causing suspicion. The betting side of race fixing is normally done with betting syndicates of at least 6 people. Then you need the fixer who will arrange things between the bettors and the jockey, coordinating and negotiating the payment. Lastly you need the Jockey to influence the outcome of the race with less than optimal riding.

So at least 8 individuals all of whom are potential points of failure, all of whom could be an informant, could get blackmailed, could commit blackmail or say too much to the wrong person. With bitcoin the jockey could do it all anonymously himself. For more details see ‘Is Bitcoin used for match fixing?’

How to Get Bitcoins
The best way to get bitcoins is to provide a good or service (such as your job) and accept bitcoin as payment. The most common way for Australians is to buy them from CoinJar a good and trustworthy exchange.

For more information about bitcoin gambling including where to bet, visit the Australian run Bitcoin Betting Guide.

Good Luck!

James Canning

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Betting 360 Podcast - Betting From All Angles
Gerard Daffy is an Australian sports betting and online gambling pioneer having been involved in the bookmaking industry all his adult life.

In this episode Gerard discusses the AFL and NRL season so far and looks ahead to the finals including futures betting.

Punting Insights You’ll Find

  • Why this year has been such a good one
  • The three times each week when the line will move
  • The teams he is happy to keep as winners in Tatt’s book
  • How and why punters often over-react to just one game

(Click to continue reading…)

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The terrible state of so many tracks was discussed in a Rob Waterhouse article in the Sydney Morning Herald this week where he broke the issue down into five areas and then suggested solutions.

It prompted a very interesting response from Lindsay on the Ausrace forum:

Yes, a very good and interesting article from Rob.

Pasture and track management is one of my interests and I have advised on training tracks and the building of arenas.

There are a number of considerations and contradictions to what has taken place at Randwick.

Firstly, the track has been ripped up and modified many times, all weather, Randwick inner, Kensington and the course proper itself a myriad of times.

They are over watering the track to compensate in the hope that there are less breakdowns from hard fast tracks and to keep the grass from going off.

The problem lies not in the grass, but in the subsoil. (Click to continue reading…)

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